Why don't we get the future right?

transcript

www.system-concepts.com

Why don’t we get the future right?

Tom Stewart, System Concepts

Billy Connolly quotes

“there are two seasons in Scotland: June and

Winter”

“there is no such thing as „bad‟ weather, just

the wrong clothes”

so maybe

“there is no such thing as bad predictions,

just how we interpret them”

The telephone took off so

rapidly that a statistician at

Bell Telephone System

forecasted that at the then

current rate of increase,

every woman in the United

States would have to

become a telephone

operator!Emma McNutt 1878,

Almon Strowger

No, there are bad predictions

Edison’s Light Bulb - “good enough for our transatlantic friends ...

but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.”

British Parliamentary Committee, 1878.

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We

have plenty of messenger boys.”

Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.

“Very interesting Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.”

Cambridge Aeronautics Professor, when shown Frank

Whittle's plan for the jet engine.

Why our predictions fail

we overlook the obvious

technology changes, people don’t

metaphors are dangerous

form and function have fallen out.

Technology changes – people don’t

“...[there] has been great disorder in

…Manchester …windows broken yearly and

spoiled by lewd and disordered persons

…playing … football in the streets”

The problem in Manchester with the

banned activity of “ffotebale” in 1608.

“people need holes not drills”

Or do they

visual slide me with drills

wants are not the same as

needs and do change

but I want drills!

Metaphors are dangerous

Telegraph ipad edition

Form and function have fallen out

Smaller is not

always better

ONE HAND

TWO HAND

RIDE ON

RIDE IN

the power of negative thinking

identify constraints & show stoppers

many suffer from...

“hardening of the categories”

pretend you have Super Powers

imagine what you

would do if the

constraints were

lifted – remember

the brick

then, evaluate, but…

... avoid Premature Evaluation!

RIPE approach to the next big thing

Research – put in the hard work

Identify constraints – know the box

Pretend you have superpowers to

challenge assumptions and explore options

Evaluate – but not too early

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Thank You!