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transcript
WhyHighSchoolGraduationMatters
RussellW.RumbergerUniversityofCalifornia,SantaBarbara
THEIMPORTANCEOFHIGHSCHOOL
UrgencyforAmerica
Sothisisaproblemwecannotaffordtoacceptandwecannotaffordtoignore. Thestakesaretoohigh―forourchildren,foroureconomy,andforourcountry. It'stimeforallofustocometogether―parents,students,principalsandteachers,businessleadersandelectedofficialsfromacrossthepoliticalspectrum―toendAmerica'sdropoutcrisis.
―BarackObama,February24,2009
UrgencyforCaliforniaIfcurrenttrendspersist,in2025only35percentofworking-ageadultsinCaliforniawillhaveatleastabachelor’sdegree,but41percentofjobswillrequireatleastabachelor’sdegree.Thisequatestoashortfallofonemillioncollegegraduates.
Substantialimprovementsineducationaloutcomesareneededtomeetthedemandsoftomorrow’seconomyandensuretheeconomicprosperityofCalifornians.
Failuretomakeimprovementswillresultinaless-productiveeconomy,lowerincomesforresidents,lesstaxrevenueforthestate,andmoredependenceonsocialservices.
―PPIC,California2025(2012)
Clausenstudy(1993)
• CohortborninGreatDepressionandtrackeduntilage70
• Adultsuccess:obtainedmoreeducation,hadlowerratesofdivorce,hadmoreorderlycareers,achievedhigheroccupationalstatus,andexperiencedfewerlifecrises,suchasunemployment
• Bestpredictor:“planful competence,”acombinationofdependability,intellectualinvolvement,andself-confidence,thatwasevidentinhighschool
• “Predictingtoage70,there’snothingthatpredictsbetterthanwhattheywerelikeinhighschool”
Sawhill,etal.,(2012)PathwaystotheMiddleClass
• ExamineddatafromtheNationalLongitudinalStudyofYouth
• Followedchildrenfrom1986to2010
• Estimatedadultincomesatage40
• Middleclass:300%abovepovertyrate($68,000foramarriedcouplewithtwochildren)
• Developedlife-cyclemodeltoidentifysixstagesandindicatorsofsuccessforeachlifestage
BenchmarksforSuccess
Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40
LikelihoodofReachingMiddleClass
HIGHSCHOOLDROPOUTS
MyBackgroundonDropoutsResearch• “DroppingOutofHighSchool”(AERJ,1983)• EngagingSchools:FosteringHighSchoolStudent’sMotivationtoLearn (NRC,2005)• ImprovingMeasuresofHighSchoolDropout,Graduation,andCompletion
Rates: BetterData,BetterMeasures,BetterDecisions (NRC,2010)• DroppingOut:WhyStudentsDropOutofHighSchoolandWhatCanbeDone
AboutIt (HarvardUniversityPress,2011)Practice• Collaboratoronprovendropoutpreventionprogram,ALAS(1990-95)• DropoutPrevention:APracticeGuide (IES,2008)• PreventingDropoutsinSecondarySchools:APracticeGuide(IES,2017)Policy• StartedCaliforniaDropoutResearchProject (2006)• SolvingCalifornia’sDropoutCrisis (CDRP,2008)
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cdrp.ucsb.edu
CaliforniaDropoutResearchProjectActivities
• NewresearchwithafocusonCalifornia(researchstudies,policybriefs,statisticalbriefs,citydropoutprofiles)
• Policyrecommendationsfrompolicycommittee(policymakers,educators,researchers)
• Disseminationthroughmailings,website,presentations,media
DimensionsoftheDropoutCrisis
1. Magnitudeandtrends2. Consequences3. Causes4. Solutions
1.Theproblemissevere
WhatisaDropout?
• Dropoutasastatus• Dropoutasanevent• Dropoutasaprocess:
Enrollà Attendà Progressà Graduateâ
DropOut
WhatisaGraduate?
• Graduate earnsahighschooldiploma
• Completer earnsdiplomaorequivalency(GED)
DropoutFactories
• InUS,18%(2,007)ofregularandvocationalhighschoolsaccountfor50%ofthedropouts(“dropoutfactories”)
• InCalifornia,1%(25)ofallhighschoolsaccountfor21%ofdropouts
2.Thesocialandeconomiccostsarestaggering
ConsequencesofDroppingOut
• INDIVIDUALCONSEQUENCES– Lowerwages– Higherunemployment– Increasedcrime– Poorerhealth– Reducedpolitical
participation– Reducedintergenerational
mobility
• SOCIALCOSTS– Reducednationalandstate
income– Reducedtaxrevenues– Increasedsocialservices– Increasedcrime– Poorerhealth– Reducedpolitical
participation– Reducedintergenerational
mobility
ConsequencesofDroppingOut(ComparedtoHighSchoolGraduates)
• Lifetimeearningshalfamilliondollarslower
• 6timesmorelikelytobeincarcerated
• Lifeexpectancynineyearsless
• 2-3timesmorelikelytoreceiveMedicaid
• Morelikelytobepoor—poorchildren2-3timesmorelikelytobecomepooradults
EconomicImpact:Sacramento(Adults25-64yearsofage)
Dropouts Graduates
Employment/Population Ratio 47% 62%
Annual earnings $17,649 $26,664
Poverty rate 35% 22%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey
SacramentoDropouts
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-15 American Community Survey
242 (52%) 317 (88%)
72 (15%)
17 (5%)
151(32%) 24 (7%)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Males(N=465) Females(N=358)
EmploymentStatusof16-19Year-oldDropouts,2011-15
Notinlaborforce Unemployed Employed
ComputingGainsfromImprovingGraduationRates
• Calculatenumberofdropouts,graduates,violentcrimeincity
• Estimateeconomiclosses
• Estimateeconomicandsocialbenefitsofcuttingnumberofdropoutsinhalf
Graduates,Dropouts,Crime
Sacramento California
Graduates, 2015-16 2,291 406,874
Dropouts,2015-16 310 48,118
Violentcrime,2010(homicides,aggravatedassaults) 2,380 101,875
LifetimeEconomicLossesfromOneYear’sDropouts,2015-16($)
PerDropout PerCohortSacramento
PerCohortCalifornia
State andlocalgovernment 1.3B
Healthcare costs 53,580 703,000 710M
Earnings(netoftaxes) 4,540 29.2M 4.5B
Crime (Victimcosts) 79,890 14.4M 1.9B
Otherlosses 69,800 10.8M 1.7B
TOTAL 391,910 53.1B 9.4B
EconomicBenefitsofReducingDropoutsbyHalf
Sacramento California
Lifetimeeconomicbenefits $26.5M $4.7B
Annual reductionsinhomicidesandaggravatedassaults 142 5,387
3.Thecausesarecomplex—relatedtostudents,families,schools,andcommunities
UnderstandingCauses• Causesvs.reasonsvs.predictors• Individual
– Demographic(unalterable)– Attitudesandbehaviors(alterable)
• Institutional:Family,School,Community– Resources– Practices
• Proximal(highschool)vs.distal(beforehighschool)
• Dropoutvs.achievement
ReasonsforDroppingOut
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35
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82
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Got a job
ANY JOB REASON
Pregnant
ANY FAMILY REASON
Could not keep up with schoolwork
Did not like school
Failing in school
Thought it would be easier to get GED
Missed too many days of school
ANY SCHOOL REASON
SOURCE: CDRP Statistical Brief 2
IndividualPredictors
• Academicachievement(failedclasses)• Poorattendance• Misbehavior• Loweducationalaspirations• Retention• Mobility
RiskIndicators
SOURCE: CDRP Research Report 14
StudentandSchoolPredictors(Predicted10th gradegraduationratesbystudentandschoolSES,2002)
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83
87
80
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91
85
89
93
70
75
80
85
90
95
Low Middle High
Individual SES
Perc
ent
School SES Low School SES Middle School SES High
SOURCE: Preliminary analysis of data from Education Longitudinal Study: 2002
TheDropoutProcess
Environment Beliefsandattitudes Engagement
DropoutAchievement
SOURCE: Engaging Schools (NRC 2005)
TheDropoutProcess
Environment
Beliefsaboutcompetenceandcontrol
(Ican)
Valuesandgoals(Iwantto)
Senseofbelonging(Ibelong)
CognitiveEngagement
BehavioralEngagement
EmotionalEngagement
DropoutAchievement
SOURCE: National Research Council, Engaging Schools (2005).
TheImportanceofNoncognitiveSkillsforSuccessfulSchoolPerformance
Farrington, et al. (2012)
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21st CenturyCompetenciesforAdultSuccess
• CognitiveCompetencies– Cognitiveprocessesandstrategies– Knowledge– Creativity
• Intra-PersonalCompetencies– Intellectualopenness– Workethicandconscientiousness– Positivecoreself-evaluation
• Inter-PersonalCompetencies– Teamworkandcollaboration– Leadership
SOURCE: National Research Council. (2012). Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century. 39
PredictorsofAdultOutcomes
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
Arrested Attend College Income
Cogntive factor Non-cogntive factor
SOURCE: Jackson (2013)
ImplicationsofResearchFindingsforPolicyandPractice
• Addressbothacademicandsocialneedsofstudents
• Startbeforehighschool—moreeffectiveandlesscostly
• Focusonbothindividualstudentsandtheinstitutionsthatsupportthem(families,schools,communities)
4.Therearearangeofpossiblesolutions
InterventionStrategies
1. Programmatic—focusonstudents– Supportprograms– Alternativeprogramsandschools
2. Comprehensive—focusonschools– Comprehensiveschoolreform– School/communitypartnerships
3. Systemic—focusonsystem– Statepolicy(e.g.,compulsoryschoolingage;graduation
requirements)– School/district/statecapacitybuilding
1.ProgrammaticSolutions
• Advantages– Easiertodesign,fund,implement,evaluate
• Disadvantages– Limitedimpact–onlyappropriatewheredropoutproblemissmall– Addstoprogrammatic“overload”atlocallevel– Limitednumberofprovenprograms(seeWhatWorksClearinghouse)
2.ComprehensiveSolutions
• Advantages– Potentialtoimpactmorestudents—moreappropriatein“dropout
factories”– Potentialtoimpactmultipleeducationaloutcomes(testscoresand
dropoutrates)
• Disadvantages– Moredifficulttoreformschools– Fewprovencomprehensiveschoolreformmodels—Comprehensive
SchoolReformQualityCenteridentified3outof18modelsthatsignificantlyimprovedgraduationrates
– Unclearwhatincentives,resources,andsupportneededtoimproveschools
3.SystemicSolutions
• Advantages– Potentialtoimpactmorestudents– Potentialtoimpactmultipleeducationaloutcomes(testscoresand
dropoutrates)
• Disadvantages– Moredifficulttoalterfamilies,schools,andcommunities– Mixedimpactfromsystemicreforms– Unclearwhatincentives,resources,andsupportneededtoimprove
school,district,andstatecapacity
ProvenInterventionsBenefit-Cost Ratio
Preschool 2.33
Preschool + Early Childhood 3.59
Class size reduction in grades K-3 (15 to 1)--All students--Low-income students
1.292.11
Raise teacher salaries 2.65
High school reform 4.47
SOURCE: Belfield and Levin (2007)
(releasedSeptember2008)
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IESPracticeGuide(USDepartmentofEducation,2008)
1. Utilizedatasystemstoidentifystudentsatriskfordroppingout
2. Assignadultadvocatestostudentsatriskofdroppingout
3. Provideacademicsupportandenrichmenttoimproveacademicperformance
4. Implementprogramstoimprovestudents’classroombehaviorandsocialskills
5. Personalizethelearningenvironmentandinstructionalprocess
6. Providerigorousandrelevantinstructiontobetterengagestudentsinlearningandprovidetheskillsneededtograduateandtoservethemaftertheyleaveschool
CDRPPolicyReport(releasedFebruary27,2008)
• Policystrategy—pressureandsupport
• Pressure—modifyaccountabilitysystem,reportmoreusefuldata
• Support—buildcapacityofschools,districts,state—ratherthanimplementingprograms
• Willimproveachievementandotherstudentoutcomes
• Improvementrequiresfiscal,human,andsocialresources
WhattheStateShouldDo1. Fixtheaccountabilitysysteminordertomaintainpressureandtoallow
sufficienttimetoaddresstheproblem.
2. Collectandreportmoreusefuldataondropoutsandthestate’sprogressinimprovinggraduationrates.
3. Develophighschoolreformstandardsandcreate“lighthouse”districtstoimplementtheminschoolswithhighdropoutrates.
4. Undertakemiddleschoolreform.
5. Makestrategicinvestmentsinprovendropoutpreventionstrategiestargetingthemostdisadvantagedstudentsandschools.
6. Re-examinehighschoolgraduationrequirements.
WhatDistrictsShouldDo
1. Marshalthewillofthedistrictandcommunitytoaddressthedropoutproblem.
2. Adoptprovenstrategiestokeepstudentsinschoolandsupporttheirsuccessfulgraduation.
3. Developastructured,participatory,andtimedprocessforimplementingthesestrategiesinalltargetedschools.
4. Developandusedatatomonitortheimplementationofthestrategiesandtomodifytheimplementationplan.
5. Partnerwithoutsidesupportorganizationstoidentifystrategiesandtodevelopandmonitorimplementation.
WhatSchoolsShouldDo
1. Createapersonalizedlearningenvironmentforbothstudentsandteachers.
2. Provideacademicandsocialsupportsforstudents.
3. Providerigorousandmeaningfulinstruction.
4. Createconnectionstotherealworld.
ImplementingRecommendations
• Choosingbetweenstrategies,targetedprograms,schoolwideprograms
• Selectingstrategiesandprogramsthatarebotheffectiveandcosteffective
• Matchingstrategiesandprogramswithlocalcontext—populations,resources,capacity
• Evaluatingoutcomesoflocallyimplementedprograms
WhatElseisNeeded?
1. Redefinehighschoolsuccess
2. Provideincentivestoeducateallstudents
3. Buildthecapacityoftheeducationalsystem
4. Desegregateschools
5. Strengthenfamiliesandcommunities
Challenges• Nostatewidedatasystem• Nostaterepositoryforprovenprogramsandpractices
• Existingmodels(e.g.,randomizedcontroltrials)forconductingevaluationstime-consumingandcostly
• Littleinterestorincentivesatlocalleveltoadoptprovenprograms
• Littlecapacityinstate,counties,anddistrictstoevaluatelocalreformeffortsandstatepolicyinitiatives
Recommendations
• Redefinehighschoolsuccess– Alteraccountabilitysystem(e.g.CollegeReadyIndicatorSystem)
• Provideincentivestoeducateallchildren– Measureandreward5-yearand6-yeargraduationrates– Supportandrecognizedropoutrecovery
• Developmorepathwaystohighschoolandcollege– Alternativehighschools(e.g.BigPictureLearning)– Highschool/collegeschools(EarlyCollegeHighSchool)– Three-yearbachelor’sdegreepathway(dualenrollment,AP)
• Develop,evaluate,anddisseminatecost-effectivestudentsupportprograms– Social-emotionalprograms– College-careerpreparationandcounselingprograms– Ninthgradebasicskillsclasses
Recommendations• Buildthecapacityoftheeducationalsystem
– Developandsupportdistrictpartnershipsandnetworkedimprovementcommunities
– Buildinter-segmentaldatasystem(e.g.,Cal-PASSPlus)– Buildlocalandstate-levelcapacitytoidentify“evidence-based”(costs
andeffectiveness)programsandpractices(e.g.,CenterforBenefit-CostStudiesinEducation;WashingtonStateInstituteforPublicPolicy)
• Desegregateschools• Strengthenfamiliesandcommunities
ImportanceSystemImprovementThesinglefundamentalchangeprinciplefromoursystemchangeworkisthis:peoplelearnbestandmostfromothersdoingsimilarworkandgettingsuccess.Therefore,Californiashouldturnitsattentiontoenablingschools,districts,andcharterorganizationstolearnfromeachother.
Fullan andRodriquez(2017,p.17).
Farrington, C. E., Roderick, M., Allensworth, E., Ngaoka, J., Keyes, T. S., Johnson, D. W., & Beechum, N. O. (2012). Teaching adolescents to become learners :The role of noncognitive factors in shaping school performance. Chicago: Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago.
National Research Council, Committee on Increasing High School Students’ Engagement and Motivation to Learn. (2005). Engaging Schools: Fostering High School Students’ Motivation to Learn. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Roderick, M., Kelly-Kemple, T., Johnson, D. W., & Beechum, N. O. (2014). Preventable failure: Improvements in long-term outcomes when high schools focused on the ninth grade. Chicago: Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago.
Rumberger, R. W. (2008). Solving California's Dropout Crisis. Report of the California Dropout Research Project Policy Committee. Santa Barbara California Dropout Research Project, University of California, Santa Barbara. Retrieved May 1, 2011, from http://cdrp.ucsb.edu/dropouts/pubs_policyreport.htm
Rumberger, R. W. (2011). Dropping Out: What Students Drop Out of School and What Can be Done About It. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
References
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Websites
cdrpsb.org
whatworks.ed.gov