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navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com
www.crafitti.com
Workshop on Rural e Governance Round Table
September 16-17, 2010New Delhi
A Decision Framework for Rural e-Governance Initiatives combining The Wisdom of Crowds with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
IIPAIndian Institute of Public Administration
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What have we done …..
• We have asked a group of Experts (Chosen)
– What key attributes should be considered while designing a rural e-Governance Initiative?
• We have asked them in multiple Delphi rounds a simple question for each of the attributes in Yes, No, Can’t say format
September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 2
Results are available in %age terms, such as …..
• 99% of experts believe that Citizen Characteristics should be included while designing a citizen centric rural e-governance Initiative
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September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 3
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September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 4
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September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 5
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September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 6
Can these %ages be considered as relative importance of each of the attributes?
Obviously not…
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Information Theory tells us ….
If the likelihood/probability of all alternatives/attributes is uniform (equal likely) – then there is no information.
September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 7
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Do the Experts Really Know?
September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 8
"... after a few more flashes in the pan, we shall hear very little more of Edison or his electric lamp. Every claim he makes has been tested and proved impracticable." [New York Times,
January 16, 1880]
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."[Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895]
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."[Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieurede Guerre]
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“[Thomas Watson, chairman IBM, 1943]
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." [Ken Olson, Chairman and founder Digital Equipment
Corp., 1977]
"640K ought to be enough for anybody." [Bill Gates, 1981]
"Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever." [Thomas Edison, 1889]
"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." [Albert Einstein, 1932]
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WISDOM OF CROWDS
September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 9
James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the Many Are Smarter than
the Few
• Collective Intelligence can be brought to bear on a wide variety of problems, and complexity is no bar
– Cognition Problems – have/will have definite solutions (who will win the World cup?)
– Coordination Problems – members of a group to find out how to coordinate their behaviour with each other (how can you drive safely in heavy traffic?)
– Cooperation Problems – challenges of getting self-interested, distrustful people to work together (paying taxes, dealing with pollution)
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WISDOM OF CROWDS
September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 10
Individual Experts may not know about the whole; however a crowd knows more than what the individual
knows provided
• The crowd is composed of diverse set of individuals• They are independent of each other
• Paradoxically, the best way for a group to be smart is for each person in itto think and act as independently as possible
James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few
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We need….
To include the crowd – rather than thinking about experts
Secondly we need to ask the right question – How much relative importance be given to each attribute rather with respect to the constructs and overall goal …
September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 11
We propose … The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
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• A Proposal
– Combining the Wisdom of Crowds with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 12
Estimating the relative importance of each attribute to evaluate /decide ReGI options
Similar to Decision Matrix approach but allows a wider
range of values in comparison of alternatives
Developed by T.L. Saaty (1980)
AHP invites pair-wise qualitative comparisons
The problem is organized as a hierarchy
Bhushan N. and Rai K., Strategic Decision Making – Applying the Analytic
Hierarchy Process, Springer, 2004
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The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two:
Some Limits on our Capacity for Processing Information
George A. Miller (1956)
Harvard University
First published in Psychological Review, 63, 81-97.
[1] This paper was first read as an Invited Address before the Eastern Psychological Association in Philadelphia on April 15, 1955.
The point seems to be that,
as we add more variables to
the display, we increase the
total capacity, but we
decrease the accuracy for
any particular variable. In
other words, we can make
relatively crude judgments of
several things simultaneously.
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Why AHP ?
Qualitative Inputs
Pairwise comparisons
Gartner
Reduces Complexity of decision by organizing it in structured
format
Promotes comparison of homogeneous characteristics
Framework to check logical consistency
Facilitates What if Scenarios
It undermines Political Agendas
Facilitates Senior Managers’ buy-in
Sound Mathematical Basis
Consistency Evaluation
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15
AHP for ReGI
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Figure 1: The ReGI Design Evaluation Hierarchy
Rural e-Government Initiative (ReGI) Design
Citizen Characteristics (CC)
Goal-Task Characteristics (GTC) (GTC)
Environment Characteristics (EC) (GTC)
e-Technology Characteristics (eTC) (GTC)
Educational background of citizens in the region
Prime occupation of citizens in the region
Subsidiary occupations of citizens in the region
Income slabs of citizens in the region
Social composition of citizens in the region such as schedule tribe/schedule caste/other backward classes
Ability of citizens in the region to access technology related to e-governance initiative (Computer self-efficiency)
Experience of citizens in the region with technology related to ReGI
Tasks Composing the Goal
Priority of the task for the achievement of Goal
Type of the task (Simple Task/Decision Task/ Judgment Task/Problem Task/ Fuzzy Task)
Core task characteristics
Method/technology being currently used to address the task
Time required to accomplish the task using present method/technology
Information generated by the task
Complexity of the task using present method/technology
Prevailing traditional techniques, skills, tools for addressing the governance issue/ task.
Local resources (material) available in the community, to address the governance issue/task.
Prevailing beliefs of the community for the governance issue/ task.
History of all other traditional solutions to address the governance issue/task.
Whether there is continuity between traditional skills and methods and the present method to address the task.
Any other Details of collaborative development of knowledge pertaining to profession (farming, manufacture, forest products, health and nutrition)
Details of indigenous means of reaching out to Community such as community celebrations , festivals and get-togethers Details of health issues, natural disasters endemic to the region
User –controlled interactive interface
Representational Vividness of services offered by use of multimedia techniques as animation/narration
Availability of local content and information
Use of local language
Design of multiple access mechanisms
Social Support to initiative: acceptance/awareness of technology in the region
Political support to initiative from the elected representatives and higher administrative officers of the state/district
Technical support to initiative: Hardware availability, software upgradeability support Details of indigenous means of reaching out to Community such as community celebrations , festivals and get-togethers
Details of health issues, natural disasters endemic to the region
The Initial Hierarchy
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September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 17
Rural e-Government Initiative (ReGI) Design
Citizen
Characteristics
(CC)
Goal-Task
Characteris
tics (GTC)
(GTC)
Environment
Characteristics
(EC)
e-Technology
Characteristics
(eTC)
Computer self -efficiency
Gender
Educational background
Prime occupation
Income slabs
Social composition
Subsidiary occupations
Citizens’ Awareness/Acceptance
Technology Exp.
Age Profile
Community specifications
Sample study of Citizen’s daily routine
Family members
Time required to accomplish the task
Priority of the task
Method/technology
Using present method/technology
Tasks Composing
Information generated by the task
Cost of the task
Time Saved for the task using ReGI
Feedback
Sustainability and Revenue task
Core task characteristics
Importance of task to citizen
Participatory rules for citizens
Re-engineering specifications
Measurability of goal
Type of the task
Analysis of inter/intra dependencies
Task performance
Information gathering strategies
Traditional gov. solutions
Local resources for gov.
Indigenous Communication means
History of traditional gov sol.
health, natural disasters endemic
Collaborative develop. of knowledge
Beliefs for gov.
Continuity b/w traditional & present method
Local Culture & Traditions
Community responses in past situations reaching out to Community such as community celebrations , festivals and get -togethers
Details of health issues, natural disasters endemi c to the region
Availability of local content/information
Use of local language
Cost of Access
Technical support
Physical security & H/W Security issues
Training of stakeholders
Social Support
Data management Attributes
Representational Vividness of services
Design of multiple access mechanisms
User–controlled interactive interface
Available IT Resources
Political support
Maintenance Mechanisms
Feedback about the technology
Regional demand for the technology
Regional
Characteristics
(RC)
Geographical Indicators
Infrastructure Available
Primary Language of Communication
Critical Governance needs of the region
Citizen Groups
Social networks/bonding
Accessibility
Local technical resources available
Bureaucratic setup & relation with gov.
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Pairwise Comparisons
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Pairwise Comparisons
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Relative Weights Derivation and Consistency Evaluation
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Relative Weights Derivation and Consistency Evaluation
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Top Level Radar Plot
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Similar Process for sub level of each construct
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Relative Global Weights for All Attributes
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Consensus Creation with Multiple Experts
(Next Steps)
4.57%
19.17%
9.45%
15.32%
19.23%
14.40%
4.86%
7.68%
5.32%
0.0000 0.1000 0.2000 0.3000 0.4000
Weights
Weights Variation Chart with Normalized Geometric Means
Process/Tools
Documentation
External ConstraintsStability
Complexity
Staffing Constraints
Expertise
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