Post on 18-Oct-2020
transcript
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Global Free Zones Outlook
Stefan Kooths, Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Saskia MösleForecasting Center
World FZO 5th Annual International Conference & Exhibition | Barcelona, 26-28 June 2019Free Zone 4.0 meets Economy 4.0
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
▪ Global Economic Outlook
▪ The World FZO‘s Business Excellence and Economic Contribution (BEEC) Survey
» Concept
» Preliminary results
▪ The Freezones World Economic Barometer (F-WEB)
Outline
2
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Global growth remains sluggish, despite a temporary pick-up in world production at the start of the year
3
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
World output IfW-Indicator for business expectations (rhs)
Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted. Indicator is based on business expectations in 42 economies. GDP: price adjusted, change over previous quarter.
Source: national sources, IfW calculations.
Percent Index
World Economic Activity
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Sentiment has deteriorated and world trade isweak amid high global economic policy uncertainty
4
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2012 2014 2016 2018
World
Advanced Economies
Developing and ermerging economiesIndex
Monthly data, seasonally adjusted. Indicators are based on buisness expectations
in 42 countries (34 advanced economies and 8 emerging economies).
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators; national sources; IfW calculations.
Business expectations by groups of countries
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
90
100
110
120
130
World trade total
Advanced economies
Developing and emerging Economies
Monthly data; seasonally and price adjusted.
Source: CPB, World Trade Monitor; IfW calculations.
2012=100
World Trade
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Business Excellence and Economic Contribution (BEEC) Survey
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
▪ World FZO‘s free-of-charge annual survey open to all free zones around the globe
▪ Insights on economic developments in the Free Zones community
▪ Optional: Izdihar („Prosperity“) Index journey that helps Free Zones fulfill their own potential
What is the BEEC Survey?
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
▪ To participate, visit https://www.worldfzo.org/BEEC-2019
▪ Web-based questionnaire with questions on:
» Free Zone characteristics
» Incentives & business environment
» Key economic indicators
How can I be part of the BEEC Survey?
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
BEEC participation so far…
8
40+ Free Zones
20+ Countries
350 000+ Employees
30 000+ Companies
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Global coverage, but some regions still under-represented
9
Regional distribution of BEEC participants
21%
11%
42%
11%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Europe and Central Asia Latin America and theCaribbean
Middle East and NorthAfrica
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Public free zones and general-purpose zones are most represented in the BEEC survey until now
10
BEEC participants by ownership BEEC participants by type of zone
Government
Private
Public-Private Partnership
Airport Dry port
General High-Tech
Specialist
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
On average, BEEC participants report an increase in economic activity in 2018
11
Development of key economic indicators in Free Zones participating in the BEEC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
decrease no change some increase strong increase
Investment Sales Value added Exports Imports Firms Employees
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Free Zones World Economic Barometer(F-WEB)
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
▪ Quarterly, survey-based sentiment indicator
» Based on qualitative, easy-to-answer questions (max. 10 minutes!)
▪ Benefits of regular participation:
» Get preferential access to detailed results and commentary
» Evaluate the relative performance of your Free Zone
▪ Web: www.ifw-kiel.de/FWEB
▪ Email: FWEB.worldfzo@ifw-kiel.de
What is the F-WEB?
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Current economic conditions in free zones have deteriorated recently but remain positive overall
14
F-WEB: Current economic situation 2019Q2 F-WEB indicator on current economic situation
47% 47%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
good normal poor
46
54
25
44
51
40
0
20
40
60
80
2018Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019Q1 Q2
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Expectations about future economic conditions in free zones have become less optimistic
15
F-WEB: Expected economic situation 2019Q2 F-WEB indicator on expected economic situation
49%
42%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
improved unchanged deteriorated
6264 64
4446
40
0
20
40
60
80
2018Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019Q1 Q2
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Elevated levels of global economic policy uncertainty affect activity in free zones
16
Global economic policy uncertainty Special Question: Impact of global economic
uncertainty on activity in free zones
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
China
World
Europe
United States
Monthly data. Measured by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index constructed
by Baker, Bloom and Davis based on news data. Source:
www.policyuncertainty.com.
Index
8%
29%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
strong negativeeffect
somewhatnegative effect
no significanteffect
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
@kielinstitute
www.ifw-kiel.de
Prof. Dr. Stefan KoothsHead of Forecasting Center
T +49 431 8814-579F +49 431 8814-525M stefan.kooths@ifw-kiel.de
Participation welcome!
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Back-up
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
7 Sections:
1) Free Zone Charceristics2) Business Excellence3) Economic Contribution4) Labor5) Past performance6) Incentives7) Infrastructure and Facilities8) Competitiveness
What is the BEEC Survey? Part II
▪ Both quantiative and qualitative questions
▪ Participation possible even if not all data is available for your Free Zone
▪ NO ranking of participants due to heterogeneity of Free Zones
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
▪ Automatic eligibility to participate in the Izdihar Index of the World FZO
▪ Special incentives for participation:
» If you are not yet a member of the World FZO, you receive a temporary guest access to exclusive WorldFZO content.
» If you are already a member of the WorldFZO, you receive exclusive access to a dedicated online Izdihar Index-based training seminar.
Benefits for BEEC participants
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Company size is heterogeneous within BEEC Free Zones, and investment dominated by foreign investors
21
BEEC participants by company size (% of large
companies)
BEEC participants by origin of investment (% of
investment by foreign companies)
13%
33%
8%
25%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100
4%
12%
8%
42%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
BEEC Free Zones offer substantial fiscal incentives
22
Fiscal Incentives offered in Free Zones participating in the BEEC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Corporate tax exemptions Duty exemptions Value added tax exemptions Personal income taxexemptions
no some substantial 100
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
Companies face few restrictions within Free Zones and some benefit from special regulations
23
Business environment in BEEC Free Zones I Business environment in BEEC Free Zones II
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Foreign ownership
Local ownership
Number of visas for employees
Type of legal entities
Repatriation of capital andprofits
Foreign exchange operations
Are there any restrictions on the following...
yes no
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Resolve commercial disputes
Resolve insolvency
Resolve conflicts of interest
Get access to credit
Protect investors
Are there any special regulations to...
yes no
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
BEEC Free Zones are linked to their host economies to different degrees
24
Backward linkages in BEEC Free Zones I Forward linkages in BEEC Free Zones II
31%
34%
14%
7%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100
13%
42%
33%
8%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100
KOOTHS | WFZO AICE 2019 | Global Free Zones Outlook
F-WEB: Current and expected economic conditions by detailed economic dimensions
25
F-WEB Components 2019Q2
0
20
40
60
80
turnover employment investment profitability
current expected