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WTI OIL: US$83.22+$0.52 per barrel
July deliveryNYMEX: N Gas: US$2.235
+$0.017 per MMBTUJune delivery
Published By NEWS COMMUNICATIONS since 1977 Canadian Edition Wednesday June 13, 2012
NORTH AMERICAN RIG COUNTS
The U.S. rotary rig count was up 4 at 1,984 for the week of June 8, 2012. It is 129 rigs (7.0%) higher than last year. The number of rotary rigs drilling for oil was up 28 at 1,414. There are 445 more rigs targeting oil than last year. Rigs drilling for oil represent 71.3 percent of all drilling activity reaching another all time high for the weekly data Rigs directed toward natural gas were down 23 at 565. The number of rigs currently drilling for gas is 314 lower than last year's level of 879. Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 45.9 percent. Gas exploration is down 35.7 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot prices is 15.5 percent lower than last year and natural gas spot prices are 51.6 percent lower. Canadian rig activity is up 74 at 156 for the week of June 8, 2012 and is 2 (0.9%) lower than last year's rig count. The number of rigs drilling for oil was up 63 to 179 and is 20 (12.6%) lower than last year. Gas directed rig count was up 11 at 51 and is 22 (30.1%) lower than a year ago.
GLOBAL PETROLEUM SHOW 2012POISED TO BE LARGEST EVER
Global Petroleum Show (GPS) 2012, the meeting place for the global oil and gas industry and one of the largest industry trade events in the world, kicked off Tuesday in Calgary at Stampede Park. Held from June 12 - 14, GPS will bring together more than 60,000 registered attendees from 95 countries to explore more than 700,000 net square feet of exhibit space featuring over 2,000 exhibiting companies showcasing the newest in emerging technology and the world's greatest outdoor display of equipment. GP will gather oil and gas professionals from around the globe, including high level government officials and international delegations. Countries represented include Bolivia, China, Colombia, India, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom and USA, among others. Premier Alison Redford will welcomed delegates, exhibitors and attendees to Global Petroleum Show at the Opening Night Reception on Tuesday. Premier Redford will also give the Opening Keynote Address at the International Energy Leaders Forum, a feature new to GPS 2012, on Wednesday, June 13 at 8:10 a.m. The Forum will discuss a variety of timely and relevant topics including global supply and demand, technological innovat ions , and soc io-po l i t i ca l landscapes. A media scrum with Premier
ilfield NEWSoilfieldnews.ca www.markmilne.com
Redford will take place after her keynote.
US CRUDE CLOSES HIGHERU .S. crude oil futures rose on Tuesday after three days of losses, rebounding from an eight-month low ahead of weekly inventory data forecast to show a drawdown in domestic crude stockpiles
for a second straight week. NYMEX crude for July delivery settled at $83.32 a barrel, gaining 62 cents, or 0.75 percent.
CANADIAN SPOT GAS FALLSCanadian spot natural gas prices declined on Monday despite tight short-term supply in Alberta as mild temperatures in the U.S.
Midwest and Northeast limited demand for the fuel. Spot gas at the AECO storage hub in southeastern Alberta fell 7 Canadian cents from Friday to average C$1.58 a gigajoule. Deals were done between C$1.56 and C$1.60 a GJ. Daytime highs in Toronto are forecast to be cooler than average on Tuesday and Wednesday then
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turn warmer than usual through Sunday, Environment Canada said. Southern Alberta temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual on Tuesday then turn cooler than average for the next five days. Alberta's main pipeline system ran at 16.5 billion cubic feet, 596 mmcf below operator TransCanada Corp's target line pack. Producers delivered 9.56 bcf into the system and a net 572 mmcf was injected into storage facilities in the province. Export prices climbed. Spot gas at Niagara, for shipment into the U.S. Northeast, rose a penny from Friday to average $2.38 per mmBtu. Spot gas at Huntingdon-Sumas on the British Columbia-Washington border averaged $2.04 per mmBtu, up 9 cents.
OPEC MAY NEEDHIGHER OUTPUT TARGET
Leading oil producer Saudi Arabia put itself on a collision course with fellow
OPEC member countries on Monday by calling for an increase in the cartel's output target despite a recent fall in crude prices. "Our analysis suggests that we will need a higher ceiling than currently exists," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in an interview with the Gulf Oil Review ahead of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday. That was at odds with the assessment by Iraq's OPEC President, Abdul Kareem Luaibi, that there is a surplus in supplies from the 12-member group. "It's very clear there is a tremendous surplus that has led to this severe decline in prices in a very short time span," Luaibi told reporters via a translator. Brent crude has fallen about $28 a barrel since March to $100 a barrel, weighed down by slow economic growth and increased output from Saudi Arabia. OPEC's biggest producer, Saudi has lifted output sharply to 10 million barrels a day, a
30-year high, to prevent inflated fuel prices blocking global growth. "Our actions have helped the oil price drop from $128 in March to about $100 today which has acted as a type of stimulus to the European and world economy," said Naimi. He said OPEC would need to study an assessment from economists, who met at the group's Vienna secretariat on Monday to calculate how much OPEC crude is required to balance world supply and demand in the second half of the year. OPEC delegates said the economists settled on a figure of 30.7 million bpd, higher than the existing official target of 30 million bpd but well short of current output of 31.8 million. That would imply that even with a higher formal target, actual supply would need to drop to prevent a substantial build in inventories on the 90 million bpd world market during the remainder of the year. Saudi Arabia, a member of the Group of 20 leading world powers, has a reputation as a moderate on
oil prices among OPEC producers. "Given our large crude oil reserve situation, we certainly want to see a sustained market for crude oil over the long term," said Naimi. "This calls for moderation, but on the other hand, with the cost of oil production going up ... a reasonable price is required to ensure exploration can continue." Others, including and Iraq, both needing oil well above $100 to balance budgets, are keen to keep prices high to maximise revenues. Struggling against Western sanctions, Iran's output has fallen to its lowest in 20 years, leaving Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies to pick up the slack. Iran and Iraq, political allies, are expected to argue that Saudi Arabia should reduce supplies to support prices. They can expect support from fellow price hawks and Algeria After oil fell below $100 last week, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said he was worried about OPEC members violating
Iran
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the agreed production ceiling. The group appears unlikely at Thursday's meeting to reintroduce individual quotas to help police its production. "It's rather difficult at this conference to talk about individual quotas because there are outside conditions beyond the control of OPEC," said Luaib
PORT ARTHUR REFINERYUNIT SHUT FOR MONTHS
Output at the biggest U.S. refinery could be cut by more than half for up to five months after Motiva Enterprise's failed to restart a major new crude unit at the Port Arthur, Texas, plant over the weekend, sources familiar with operations said on Mon day. Just two weeks after partners Saudi Arabia and Royal Dutch Shell cut the ribbon on the new 325,000 barrel per day crude distillation unit that pushed the plant's capacity to 600,000 bpd, jointly owned Motiva shut the unit to fix what was thought to be a leaking valve impairing production. After the CDU twice failed to restart over the weekend, the refinery found major issues that will take at least two months and potentially up to five months to repair, the two sources who have knowledge of the refinery's operations said. The news pushed up cash fuel prices and lent support to gasoline futures, traders said. It weighed on oil prices in expectations that other buyers in the United States -- which saw a spike in imports from Saudi Arabia this year -- would have to absorb additional supplies the kingdom had already booked into the market. "The Saudi loadings to the
U.S. had risen massively a few months ago, as they wanted to show they could put barrels in the market when requested -- and they were very vocal about it -- as well as starting to supply Motiva," said Katherine Spector, commodity strategist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) in New York. "The question now will be how much storage space at Motiva was already filled, and will they need to divert barrels to other customers." The entire refinery has not been shut by the outage because the pre-expansion 285,000 bpd crude distillation unit, continues to operate. CDU units perform the initial refining of crude oil coming into the refinery and provide feedstock for all other production units. While it is not unusual for new refinery units to experience operational teething pains when they are first commissioned, a shut-down lasting months would be a major embarrassment for Motiva and its owners after a landmark $10 billion upgrade. The outage may also complicate Saudi Arabia's drive to push more crude into the market, as the Port Arthur plant was one of the biggest new outlets for increased production. U.S. imports from the kingdom jumped to 1.45 million barrels during the first five months of 2012, according to Reuters calculations based on monthly and weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the highest level for that period since 2008. Saudi Arabia pushed oil production to the highest level in decades in May, hitting 10.10 million barrels per day on average for the month according to a Reuters
survey, helping to cushion the impact of Western sanctions against Iran's nuclear program which have threatened Tehran's exports. Speaking ahead of an OPEC meeting this week, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi on Monday said the producer group should increase its oil output target, despite a recent slide in crude prices and comments by other members that high production had created a surplus in the market. Gasoline prices in the Gulf Coast spot markets jumped more than 5 cents on the news, while RBOB gasoline traded slightly higher even. Oil prices dropped nearly $2 per barrel. The CDU is the centerpiece of a $10 billion, five-year expansion project that more than doubled the refinery's capacity, and the shut down comes after the unit's official startup at a May 31 ceremony attended by the chief executives of Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Saudi Aramco. At the ceremony, Motiva Vice President Tom Purves, who oversaw the expansion project, said the refinery was
near its 600,000 bpd capacity and would reach full production by the end of the second quarter, advancing the date the refinery would reach that milestone by a full three months.
SHELL RESTARTS SCOTFORDRoyal Dutch Shell Plc said it was restarting an unspecified unit at its 100,000 barrel-per-day Scotford refinery near Edmonton according to a notice on a community information line. The startup might result in intermittent flaring for the next two days, the company said. There was no production impact associated with the activity, it added. A small fire on Thursday had knocked off a production unit at the adjacent Scotford oil sands upgrader facility. Shell's Scotford facility consists of an upgrader and a refinery. The upgrader uses hydrogen-addition technology to upgrade bitumen into a wide range of synthetic crude oils. A significant portion of its output is sold to the Scotford refinery.
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CHINA'S OIL DEMANDEDGES UP IN MAY
China's implied oil demand inched up 0.4 percent in May year-on-year, and rose marginally from April, when the figure fell for the first time in more than three years. The world's second-largest oil user burned about 9.344 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) last month, among the lowest rates since last October, Reuters calculations based on preliminary government data showed on Sunday. Despite slowing growth, China is still expected to make up nearly half of global incremental demand in 2012, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Implied demand is calculated by adding crude oil throughput and net imports of refined oil products, but it omits stocks changes which are seldom disclosed by the government. The daily rate compared to 9.3 million bpd in April and 9.31 million bpd in May 2011, Reuters figures showed. The relatively weak May demand figure was in part a result of lacklustre refinery operations, which posted their second straight month of year-on-year decline at 9.03 million bpd, as high crude cost and a cooling economy weighed on fuel use. "For both April and May we reported negative growth in our sales of diesel oil, as industrial fuel consumptions declined,"
said a fuel marketing official with state-run Sinopec Corp , Asia's largest refiner. In its May report, the IEA forecast China's oil demand would grow 4.1 percent, or 390,000 bpd, this year, which would mean China still accounting for nearly half of global incremental demand in 2012. China made a surprise interest rates cut on Thursday, a sign that Beijing was ready to use more aggressive measures to head off a sharper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The deluge of economic data released over the weekend also showed China's inflation dipped to a two-year low in May while economic activity remained weak, reinforcing expectation
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