Post on 16-Jan-2016
transcript
www.airlines.orgdswierenga@airlines.org
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
NET INCOMEU.S. Scheduled Airlines
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
$ Billions
EXPECTED
9/11IMPACT
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
TRAFFIC GROWTHPercent Change in Revenue Passenger Miles
J 1999F M A M J J A S O N DJ 2000F M A M J J A S O N DJ 2001F M A M J J A S O N D
0
5
10
15
-5
International
Domestic
Y2K- 6.5 Million Passengers
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
TRAFFIC GROWTHPercent Change in Revenue Passenger Miles
Jan 1999F M AM J J A S O N DJan 2000F M AM J J A S O N DJan 2001F M AM J J A S O N DJan 2002F M A
0
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
International
Domestic
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
LOAD FACTORPercent of Seats Filled
59.0
60.759.2
61.460.3
62.3 62.563.2
62.4 62.663.6 63.5
66.267.0
69.370.3 70.9 71.1
72.4
70.0
72.3
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Breakeven
Fo
rec
as
t
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
BLOCK HOURS PER DAY PER AIRCRAFTPassenger Service
91 1 92 1 93 1 94 1 95 1 96 1 97 1 98 1 99 1 00 1 01 1 8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
- 15%
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
CHANGE IN CAPACITY BY AIRCRAFT SIZEU.S. Majors and Nationals
-17.6
-13.1
-15.5
-12.8
289 Seatsper Aircraft
187 Seats 142 Seats 112 Seats
20.9%of
Traffic
25.0%of
Traffic
26.5%of
Traffic
27.5%of
Traffic
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
CHANGE IN CAPACITY BY AIRCRAFT FUEL EFFICIENCY
U.S. Majors and Nationals15.9
-8.9
-28.9-33.4
46.5 RPMsper Gallon
40.0 RPMs/Gal 35.7 RPMs/Gal 28.6 RPMs/Gal
34.7%of
Traffic
21.9%of
Traffic
19.5%of
Traffic
23.9%of
Traffic
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
Jet Airplanes vs. Capacity (ASMs)U.S. Airlines
Source: World Jet Inventory
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 20014,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000Thousands
200019991998
Aircraft
ASMs
AIRPLANES ASMs
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
AIRCRAFT ORDERS AND OPTIONSATA U.S. Members
Dec 90Jun 91Dec 91Jun 92Dec 92Jun 93Dec 93Jun 94Dec 94Jun 95Dec 95Jun 96Dec 96Jun 97Dec 97Jun 98Dec 98Jun 99Dec 99Jun 00Dec 00Jun 01Dec 01
Options
Firm Orders
2,748 1,937
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
EXPECTED DELIVERY DATESATA Members
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Firm
Orders
Options
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
U.S. AIRLINE 2001 JET FLEETBy Year of Delivery to Original Owner
<65
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
20000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
5,538 Aircraft(excl Regional Jets)
Source: Jet Information Services
6,507 Aircraft
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
AVERAGE AGE OF FLEET
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 0112.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
Source: The Airline Monitor
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
FUEL PRODUCTIVITYPassenger Miles per Gallon
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
JET FUEL PRICE TRENDSExcludes taxes
Jan 1996
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 1997
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 1998
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 1999
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 2000
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 2001
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 2002
Apr
Jul
Oct
30
45
60
75
90
105Cents per Gallon
10
15
20
25
30
35$ per Barrel
WTI(Right Scale)
JET FUEL(Left Scale)
Fo
reca
st
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
LABOR COSTS PER EMPLOYEEWages and Benefits
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002e35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75$ Thousands
$42.4
1986-2001Compensation Annual Growth Rate +3.6%CPI Annual Growth Rate +3.2%
68.6
71.9
75.5
64.8
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
PRICE TRENDSSystem Revenue per Passenger Mile
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,0.5
1,1.0
1,1.5
1,2.0
1,2.5
1,3.0
1,3.5
1,4.0Cents
2002 2001
2000
2001 - 7.6%2000 + 4.4%1999 - 1.3%
2000
2001
$5 Bill.
2002
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
REVENUE TRENDSBusiness vs. Personal/Pleasure
Preliminary Data
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
0
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60Business Personal
Percent
2001 2002
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
BUSINESS VS. PERSONAL / PLEASURE2001 Revenue & Traffic Shares
2001
Revenue TrafficPreliminary Data
Business
OUTLOOK
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
CURRENT TRAFFIC TRENDS COMPARED TO GULF WAR
0
10
20
-10
-20
-30
-40
Percent Change
2001 1990/91 System 1990/91 International
Gulf War Intl
Gulf War System
FEB ‘91
SEP ‘01
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
TRAFFIC GROWTH COMPARED TO GDPAnd Forecast for 2001 and 2002
1993 1 1994 1 1995 1 1996 1 1997 1 1998 1 1999 1 2000 1 2001 1 2002 1
0
5
-5
-10
-15
GDP Percent
0
10
-10
-20
-30
Traffic Percent
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
NET PROFIT MARGINU.S. INDUSTRY VS. AIRLINES
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02e
0
5
-5
AIRLINES
U.S. INDUSTRY
Percent
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
CASH FLOWFour Quarter Moving Total
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
$ BillionsMajors and Nationals
FO
RE
CA
ST
02/402/302/202/101/401/301/201/100/400/300/200/199/499/399/299/198/498/398/298/197/497/397/297/196/496/396/296/195/495/395/295/194/494/394/294/193/493/393/293/192/492/392/292/191/491/391/291/190/490/390/290/189/489/389/289/188/488/388/288/187/487/387/287/186/486/386/286/185/485/385/285/184/484/384/284/183/483/383/283/182/482/382/282/181/481/381/281/180/4
Air Transport Association May 21,2002
AIRLINE BALANCE SHEETSDebt as a Percent of Total Capital
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001p
2002e20
30
40
50
60
70Percent
AIRLINES
U.S. INDUSTRY
www.airlines.orgdswierenga@airlines.org