Processes leading to summertime North-West Australian rainfall in ACCESS1. 3

Post on 27-Apr-2023

0 views 0 download

transcript

!"#$%&&%&'(%)*+,-'.#'&/00%".+0%'1#".234%&.'

5/&.")(+),'")+,6)(('+,'577899:;<'=/,$),'5$>%"(%?'

@)"%.2'A%""?B'72"+&.+),'C)>#D'),*'E+$2)%('F%%*%"'

E#,)&2'G,+H%"&+.?'

'

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

42?'*#'J%'$)"%')D#/.',#".23J%&.'5/&.")(+),'")+,6)((K''

•  7)/&%&K'

•  9%H%")('$#0L%.+,-'2?L#.2%&%&M'

–  5%"#&#(;''

–  N"#L+$)('5.(),.+$'&%)'&/"6)$%'

.%0L%")./"%&;''

–  O,*+),'P$%),'&%)'&/"6)$%'.%0L%")./"%&;''

•  1#'#DH+#/&'$#,&%,&/&;''

•  4%')"%')+0+,-'.#')**"%&&'.2+&'+&&/%;''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

•  Q+-/"%M':RST'U'VTTW'(+,%)"'."%,*'+,'=CQ'")+,6)(('X00'?"3:Y;'

•  P,(?'L#&+.+H%'."%,*'&2#J,;'''

•  =).)'6"#0'A/"%)/'#6'E%.%#"#(#-?;''

Z#JK''•  G&%'577899:;<'-%,%")('$+"$/().+#,'0#*%(;''

•  9+0/().%'=%$%0D%"3C),/)"?3Q%D"/)"?'X=CQY':R[R\WT'U'VTT[\TW;'

•  Q#"$%*'/&+,-'5EO!'D#/,*)"?'$#,*+.+#,&;''

'

•  A%6#"%'J%'$),')&&%&&'.2%'6#"$+,-'0%$2),+&0'J%'0/&.')&&%&&'J2%.2%"'577899:;<'

+&'$)L)D(%'#6'"%L"%&%,.+,-'.2%'")+,6)(('L"#$%&&%&')*%]/).%(?;''

•  N2+&'+&'),'+0L#".),.'&.%L'6#"')(('0#*%(&'),*'&2#/(*'D%'$#,&+*%"%*'D%6#"%'J%'$),'

$#,^*%,.(?'+*%,.+6?'.2%'6#"$+,-'0%$2),+&0;''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

!"#$%&'()*)'+(,-(./+(/+&.(',0()"$)#'&.",%1((

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

1010.0

1012.0

1014.0

1016.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(a) ERA-Int 08 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S1006.0

1008.01010.01012.0

1014.01016.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(b) ERA-Int 14 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

1008.01010.0

1012.01014.01016.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(c) ERA-Int 20 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

1008.0

1010.01012.0

1014.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(d) ERA-Int 02 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

1008.0

1010.01012.0

1014.01016.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(e) ACCESS 1.3 08 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

1004.0

1006.0

1008

.0

1010.01012.01014.01016.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(f) ACCESS 1.3 14 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

1006.0

1008.0

1010.01012.01014.01016.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(g) ACCESS 1.3 20 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

1006.0

1008

.0

1010.01012.01014.0

1016.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

(h) ACCESS 1.3 02 AWST

1010

10

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0Wind speed (m s-1)

•  _32#/"(?'E9`!'),*'RVS'2!)'J+,*'

$#0L#&+.%&'6#"')(('=CQ&'#H%"'5EO!'L%"+#*;''

•  92)*+,-'+,*+$).%&'"%-+#,&'#6'(#J'J+,*'

&L%%*;''

'

•  9+0L(%'L"#a?'6#"'+*%,.+6?+,-'.2%'$%,."%'#6'

.2%'2%).'(#J'$+"$/().+#,;'

''

•  8F53O,.%"+0'),*'577899:;<')-"%%'J%(('

*/"+,-'.2%'*)?;''

•  =+&)-"%%0%,.'#H%",+-2.;''

•  Z%).'(#J'$+"$/().+#,'*+&L()$%*'+,'

577899:;<;''

•  8'.#'18'b#J'.%,*%,$?'+,'8F53O,.%"+0;'

•  8'.#'98'b#J'.%,*%,$?'+,'577899:;<;'''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

23/,#$'*(&4+,5.$,6/")(7,0(&%8(),%9+$4+%)+1((

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(a) ERA-Interim: 08 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(b) ERA-Interim: 14 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(c) ERA-Interim: 20 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(d) ERA-Interim: 02 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(e) ACCESS1.3: 08 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(f) ACCESS1.3: 14 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(g) ACCESS1.3: 20 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

55

5

(h) ACCESS1.3: 02 AWST

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E40S

35S

30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

•  5-%#&."#L2+$'b#J'H%$.#"&').'RVS'2!)';''

•  7#,H%"-%,$%M'&2)*%*;''

•  7#,H%"-%,$%'#$$/"&',%)"'.2%'$#)&.'

*/"+,-'.2%'*)?;''

•  1#$./",)('$#,H%"-%,$%'#$$/"&'+,(),*;''

•  9+0+()"'L)..%",&'+,'8F53O,.%"+0'),*'

577899:;<;''

•  Z#J%H%"B'+,(),*')-%#&."#L2+$'b#J'

L%,%.").%&'6/".2%"'&#/.2'),*'J%&.'+,.#'

,#".23J%&.'5/&.")(+)'X8F5Y;''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

23/,#$'*($&"%-&''(&5(&(6+$)+%.&4+(,-(./+(8&"'*(:+&%(.,.&'(

•  NFEE'<AcV'*).)M':RRW\RR'U'VTT[\TW;'

•  577899:;<M':R[R\WT'U'VTT[\TW;'

•  N'"%6%"&'.#'d(#$)('.+0%e'U'5/&.")(+),'

4%&.%",'9.),*)"*'N+0%'X@EN'f'WY;'

•  F)+,6)(('#$$/"&'.##'%)"(?'+,'0/$2'#6'

%)&.%",'5/&.")(+);''

•  NFEE'),*'577899:;<'$#0L)"%'J%(('

+,'.2%')6.%",##,;''

'

•  1#$./",)('")+,6)(('0)a+0/0'&2+6.%*'

&#/.2'),*'J%&.'+,'577899:;<;''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

1#.')'*)+(?'#$$/""%,$%g'

•  N2%'*+/",)('$?$(%'*#0+,).%&'+,'.2%'$#0L#&+.%&;'

•  Z#J%H%"B'.2%"%')"%'0),?'*)?&'J+.2#/.'")+,6)((;''

•  N2%"%6#"%'.2%'*+/",)('$?$(%'0/&.',#.'D%'.2%'#,(?'

6)$.#"'-#H%",+,-'")+,6)((;'''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

F)+,6)(('+,+.+).+#,'•  !%"2)L&'.2%'*+h%"%,$%'$#0%&'6"#0'.2%'$+"$/().+#,K''

'

•  8F53O,.%"+0'RVS'2!)'-%#L#.%,.+)('2%+-2.'),*'J+,*'

$#0L#&+.%&;''

'

•  N#LM'4%.'*)?&').'L(/H+#-")L2'&+.%&'X*#.&Y;'

•  E+**(%M'="?'*)?&;'

•  A#..#0M'=+h%"%,$%&;''

'

•  8,2),$%*'J%&.%"(?').'$#)&.;'

•  8,2),$%*',#".23%)&.%"(?'+,(),*;''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

O0)-%'.)>%,'6"#0'Q+-/"%'_'+,M''A%""?B'@;B'E;'C;'F%%*%"'),*'7;'C)>#DB'VT::M'!2?&+$)('0%$2),+&0&'"%-/().+,-'&/00%".+0%'")+,6)(('#H%"',#".2J%&.%",'5/&.")(+);'C#/",)('#6'7(+0).%B'VcB'<[TS3<[:[;'i'50%"+$),'E%.%#"#(#-+$)('9#$+%.?;' 'G&%*'J+.2'L%"0+&&+#,;'

577899:;<'")+,6)(('+,+.+).+#,'

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(a) MP wet

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

780.0

800.0

8

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(b) MP dry

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

780.0

800.0

8

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(c) MP wet-dry

-13.0

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0-2.0

2.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S

4

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(d) RF wet

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

780.0

800.0

8

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(e) RF dry

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

780.0

800.0

8

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(f) RF wet-dry

-13.0

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0-2.0

2.0 6.0

10.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S

4

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(g) NP wet

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

780.0

800.0

8

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(h) NP dry

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

780.0

800.0

8

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S(i) NP wet-dry

-13.0

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0-2.0

2.0

6.0

110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E30S

25S

20S

15S

10S

5S

4

•  7#""%&L#,*+,-'$#0L#&+.%&'

6#"'577899:;<;''

•  4%)>%,%*'J%&.%"(+%&').'.2%'

$#)&.'U'+,$#""%$.;''

•  1#".23%)&.%"(+%&'+,(),*'U'

$#""%$.;''

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

;$&<+).,$"+5(

(a) MP Wet (b) MP Dry

(d) RF Dry(c) RF Wet

(e) NP Wet (f ) NP Dry

`#J'(%H%('b#J'6"#0'.2%',#".23

%)&.;''

'

GLL%"'),*'0+*3(%H%('b#J&'

&+0+()"'6#"'D#.2'J%.'),*'*"?;''

'

9+0+()"'.#'A%""?'%.')(;'XVT::Y;''

'

E#+&./"%'$#0%&'6"#0'.2%'7#")('

9%);''

'

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

7#,$(/&+#,&'•  N2%'*+/",)('$?$(%'#6'.2%'$+"$/().+#,'$#""%&L#,*&'J%(('D%.J%%,'577899:;<'),*'"%),)(?&%&j'2#J%H%"B'.2%"%'

)"%'&#0%'&L).+)('*+h%"%,$%&;'

•  N2%'*+/",)('$?$(%'#6'")+,6)(('+,'577899'$#""%&L#,*&'J%(('J+.2'#D&%"H).+#,&').'$%".)+,'.+0%&B')-)+,'.2%"%'

)"%'&L).+)('*+h%"%,$%&'D%.J%%,'.2%'#D&%"H).+#,&'),*'0#*%(;'

'

•  1#".23%)&.%"(+%&'"%&L#,&+D(%'6#"'D"+,-+,-'0#+&./"%'+,(),*'U'J%(('"%L"%&%,.%*;''

•  7#)&.)('")+,6)(('+,+.+).+#,'+&'L##"'+,'.2%'0#*%(;''

'

•  5(('#6'.2%&%'6%)./"%&'*+&$/&&%*'+,'6#".2$#0+,-'L)L%"'.#'D%'&/D0+..%*'.#'C#/",)('#6'7(+0).%'U'&L%)>'.#'0%'

6#"'*%.)+(&'\'$#L?;''

•  N2%&%'L"#$%&&%&'+,'L)".+$/()"'0/&.'D%'),)(?k%*'+,'0#*%(&'D%6#"%'J%'$),'%H%,'&.)".'.#'(##>').'6#"$+,-&'U'

*+/",)('$?$(%B'*)?3.#3*)?'+,+.+).+#,'L"#$%&&%&B',#,3."#L+$)('6#"$+,-'0%$2),+&0&;'''*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'

STT'2!)'U'0+*3().+./*%'+,b/%,$%'

100E 110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E 170E50S

40S

30S

20S

10S

-20.0

-12.0

-4.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.00.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

8.0

8.0

12.0

12.0

16.0

100E 110E 120E 130E 140E 150E 160E 170E50S

40S

30S

20S

10S

(b) RF wet minus dry 500 hPa

2

*/,$),;)$>%"(%?I0#,)&2;%*/'