The Impact of Water Scarcity on Pakistan’s

Economy

Submitted To: Dr. Muhammad Afzal

Submitted By:Mansoor Haider (M-12)Hafiz Muhammad Adeel (M-16)Hafiz Syed Muhammad Azeem (M-66)

M.Sc Economics (Morning)4th Semester

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF THE PUNJAB

LAHORE.

Abstract Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………….....01

1.1 Global situation………………………………………………………………..02

1.2 Circumstances of Pakistan…………………………………………………….04

1.3 Objectives of Study...........................................................................................06

1.4 Research Question.............................................................................................07

Chapter 2LITERATURE REVIEW.................................................................................................08

Chapter 3 Descriptive Analysis……………………….……………………………… 17

3.1 Sources of Water...............................................................................................17

3.2 Surface Water....................................................................................................17

3.2.1 Indus Basin River………………………………………………………….. .18

3.2.2 Closed Basin Kharan Desert...........................................................................19

3.2.3 Makran coastal Basin......................................................................................19

3.3 Ground Water..................................................................................................21

3.4 Water Reservoirs...............................................................................................22

4.5 Utilization of Water...........................................................................................25

3.6 Agricultural Water Demand..............................................................................25

3.7 Irrigation..........................................................................................................26

3.8 Power Generation.............................................................................................27

3.9 Industry.............................................................................................................28

3.10 Population Growth and Water Scarcity..........................................................29

3.11 Shortage of Water...........................................................................................30

3.12 Impact on Economy........................................................................................31

3.13 Impacts of floods on Economy.......................................................................33

Chapter 4Conclusion and Recommendations........................................................................35

References.................................................................................................................38

Acknowledgment…………………………………………………………………...40

Abstract

Water scarcity affects every continent and about 2.8 billion people around the world at least one

month out of every year. More than 1.2 billion people lack access to clean drinking water. For

poor people, it is about assuring the fair and safe access they need to sustain their lives and

secure their livings. The increasing population growth and industrialization have put a great

pressure on demand for water. In Pakistan water demand has increased from 4.1 MAF to 7.2

MAF since 1990 to 2013. Pakistan is among the countries where the glaciers are melting rapidly

and where the water shortage is increasing at an alarming rate of 1.82 percent per annum. The

paper is in descriptive form where it is analyzed that the availibilty of water has decreased from

5650 to 1000 cubic meter per person since 1951 to 2013 in Pakistan. Due to decreasing

capacities of major reservoirs, Pakistan’s economy faces a loss of about 10 billion rupees per

annum. It is high time to take the issue of water scarcity as a matter of life and death for the

economy of Pakistan. Finally we recommend that canal water supply management should be

improved and small dams and headworks should be constructed to reduce the severity of the

problem.

Key Words: Water, Scarcity, Population, Economy.

Chapter 1

Introduction

When an individual does not have access to safe and cheap water to satisfy her or his

needs for drinking, washing, we call that person water insecure. When a large number of people

in an area are water insecure for a noteworthy period of time, then we can call that area water

scarce. It is important to note, however, that there is no commonly accepted definition of water

scarcity.

Water scarcity is the lack of abundant available water resources to meet the demands

of water usage within a region. It already affects every continent and around 2.8 billion people

around the world at least one month out of every year. More than 1.2 billion people lack access

to clean drinking water.

Water scarcity involves water stress, water shortage or deficits, and water crisis. While

the notion of water stress is relatively new, it is the difficulty of obtaining sources of fresh water

for use during a period of time and may result in further running down and deterioration of

available water resources. Water shortage may be caused by climate change, such as changed

weather patterns including droughts or floods, increased pollution, and augmented human

demand and overuse of water. A water crisis is a situation where the accessible potable,

unpolluted water within a region is less than that region's demand. Water scarcity is being driven

by two converging phenomena growing freshwater use and exhaustion of usable freshwater

resources.

Water shortage can be a result of two mechanisms physical (absolute) and economic

water scarcity. Physical water scarcity is a result of insufficient natural water resources to supply

a region’s demand which in case of Pakistan has increased from 4.1 MAF to 7.2 MAF since

1990 to 2013. Economic water scarcity is a result of poor management of the adequate existing

water resources. Due to this poor management 36 percent of river water falls into the Arabian sea

without being used.

Global Situation

Eyeing on the past few decades, it is revealed that the world is now facing the both type

(Physical & Economic) of water scarcity. Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the

world’s population, live in areas of physical scarcity, and 500 million people are reaching this

situation while 1.6 billion people, or almost one quarter of the world’s population, faces

economic water shortage (where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from

rivers and aquifers). Water scarcity is among the main problems confronted by many societies

and the World in the twenty first century. Water use has been mounting at more than twice the

rate of population increase in the last century. (UNDESA)

One in five people in the developing world lacks access to adequate clean water (a

suggested minimum of 20 litres/day), while average water use in Europe and the United States of

America ranges between 200- 600 litres/day. In addition, the poor pays more. A current report by

the United Nations Development Programme shows that people in the slums of developing

countries usually pay 5–10 times more per unit of water than do people with access to piped

water (UNDP, 2006). For poor people, water scarcity is not only about droughts or rivers running

dry. Above all, it is about assuring the fair and safe access they need to sustain their lives and

secure their livings.

For the poor, shortage is about how institutes function and how transparency and fairness

are guaranteed in decisions affecting their lives. It is about choices on infrastructure development

and the way they are managed. In many places throughout the world, organizations struggle to

distribute resources equitably.

It is probably in rural areas that water scarcity affects people most. Small farmers make up the

majority of the world’s rural poor. They often occupy marginal land and depend mainly on

rainfall for production. They are highly sensitive to many changes – droughts, floods and shifts

in market prices. However, rainwater is rarely integrated into water management strategies,

which usually concentrate exclusively on fresh surface water and groundwater.

If all the freshwater on the planet were divided equally among the global population, there would

be 5000–6000 m3 of water available for everyone, every year. As experts consider that people

experience scarcity below a threshold of 1700 m3/person, this global calculation gives an

impression of abundance. However, the world’s freshwater resources are dispersed very

unevenly, as is the world’s population. Due to this uneven distribution many countries are

already well below the threshold value, for example Jordan where the available water is less than

200 m3/ person per year.

To produce enough food to satisfy a person’s daily diet requires about 2000–3000 liters of

water. In contrast, about 2–3 liters are required for drinking purposes, and 20–300 litres for local

needs. As the world population continues to increase, more people will need more water for the

cultivation of food, fiber and industrial crops and for livestock and fish. It is projected that food

and feed crop demand will nearly double in the coming 50 years.

These are the drivers of increasing water scarcity:

Inescapable growth in population

Increasing trend of urbanization.

Increase in per capita consumption of water.

Climatic changes.

Circumstances of Pakistan

Pakistan is a South Asian country situated between Latitude 24° and 37° North and

Longitude 61° and 75° East. The area is about 796,095 km2 and a population of 190 million. The

largest network of surface irrigation systems in the World irrigating, about 18 million hectares

(MH) of land, is found in Pakistan.

Population wise Pakistan is the ninth largest country in the world. Population growth and

the rapid pace of agricultural, urban and industrial development are placing increasing pressures

on the global and regional environment and society. Any noteworthy change in climate on a

global scale may effect local agriculture, industry and economy of a country. Pakistan

unfortunately falls in the group of countries highly exposed to negative consequences of climate

change.

Among the damages already evident in the country is growing frequency of droughts and

flooding, increasingly unpredictable weather behavior, reduction in freshwater supply and

changes in the agriculture pattern. It has become clear that climate change threatens all progress

targets and plans, from health, education to livelihoods, the whole process is in alarming

situation by the likelihood of disasters and uncertain environmental conditions.

The arid and semi-arid regions of the world have to depend on river water sources for

their agriculture i.e. mainly on artificial canal irrigation system. Pakistan is one of the most arid

countries of the world. The main source of water in Pakistan is canal irrigation system. The Indus

valley, comprising the planes of Punjab and Sindh is mainly dependent on the water of river.

Indus and its tributaries. The river Indus is the life line for Pakistan's agriculture. Nearly

450,000 sq.m. Himalayan water shed of Indus and its tributaries include the world's biggest

glaciers outside the polar regions. The Indus river rises from a lake named Manasarowar in

southwestern Tibet at an altitude of 16,000 ft or 4,900 m and flows in a north westerly direction

along the slopes of the Himalayas, (travelling a distance of about 1500 miles) and crossing at

north -west Jammu and Kashmir from the southwest. In west Kashmir it flows through a defile

13,000 feet deep. The river Indus is a great trans-Himalayan river of South Asia and one of the

longest rivers of the world having a length of 18,00 miles( 2,900 km).The glaciers of Siachin (75

km), Baltro (62 km), Hispar (53), Biafo (50km), Shyok, Shingar, Hunza, Gilgit, Astor and other

streams with 30 tributaries constitute a surface area of 1220 sq kms (471 sq miles ) carry snow

melt waters to the Indus from the main Himalayan range, the Karakoram range, the Nanga

Parbat, the Kohistan ranges etc. mostly in summer season . The river crosses the western

Kashmir border and then turns south and southwest to enter Pakistan. In Pakistan, it emerge from

the mountain highlands flows as a rapid stream between the Swat and Hunza regions and

proceeds onwards through.

North- West Frontier region and crosses the salt range to enter semi-arid Punjab plains

where it is joined by the Panjnad (near Mithankot). The Indus receives its most notable

tributaries from the Punjab to the eastern sides, including Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlaj

rivers. After receiving the waters of the Punjab rivers the Indus becomes much wider and enters

into the Sindh region near Kashmoor and then flows to a slow speed, depositing large quantities

of silt along its course. Indus begins its deltaic stage (3,000 sq.m ) and breaks into distributaries

that reach the Arabian sea at various points southeast of Karachi.

Pakistan is one of the most arid countries in the world, having the lowest per capita

freshwater supplies in the region - less than half the global benchmark of 1000 cubic centimeters.

Comparatively, per capital freshwater supplies in China stood at 2,700 cubic centimeter; 17,000

cubic centimeter in India and 3,300 cubic centimeter in Afghanistan. (UNDESA)

Per capita water availability at the time of independence was 5,600 cubic meters against

the current measure of 1,000 cubic meters and the shortage is projected to rise to 31% of

people’s needs by 2025. It is expected that at present, about a quarter to a third of the country’s

total population does not have access to safe drinking water and on a daily basis, 630 children

lose their lives to diarrhea. (Husain, 2012)

Pakistan loses 13 million cusecs of water every year into the sea while seawater invasion

damages land up to 100 kilometres of cultivable land during periods of reduced river flow—for a

country that uses nearly 90 per cent of its water resources for agriculture and depends on the

sector to remain floating, this is a dangerous trend. (Ashraf, 2013)

Objectives of the Study

At this time of storm and stresses our country is facing the severe water crisis. As Pakistan is

an agrarian country, water has an importance worth the blood in the body. So, eyeing on the

importance of water and its crisis in front of us, our objectives of study are:

To observe the intensity of water scarcity in Pakistan.

To investigate that in what ways the water scarcity is affecting our economy.

To explore the increasing difference between water supply and population growth.

After making descriptive analysis, policy recommendations to tackle the situation.

Research Question

Owing to the emerging water crisis the question of research is to look how water scarcity is

threatening to our economy and its various sectors ? How the mismanagement and the

negligence of the Government is causing the natural disasters like floods and droughts which are

further oppressing the economy of Pakistan ?

Chapter 2

Literature Review

Pakistan once a water-surplus country is now a water deficit country. The rainfall is

neither sufficient nor regular, to meet the growing needs for water. The surface water resources

of Pakistan mainly consist of flows of the Indus River and its tributaries. The Indus River System

will not be able to continue self-reliance in agricultural production. Due to enormous amounts of

sediments brought in by the feeding rivers, the three major reservoirs – Tarbela, Mangla and

Chashma – will lose their storage capacity, which will further aggravate the water-availability

situation.

Kahlown and Majeed (2009) in their paper study the present situation of water-resources,

present needs and future requirements, the challenges imposed, and suggest short, medium, and

long-term strategies to cope with the situation. They suggest short-term strategies that include

starting a mass-awareness campaign, propagation of high-efficiency irrigation systems, changes

in cropping-patterns, identification of feasible surface-water storage sites and dams. The

medium-term strategies suggest giving priority to lining of distributaries, minors and

watercourses in saline ground water areas, construction of small dams and installment of

tubewells in technically feasible areas. Long term strategies include formulation of a regulatory

framework on groundwater abstraction, construction of large storage dams, better flood and

drought-forecasting mechanisms and resolving water-distribution problems between provinces.

Finally they recommend that a National Commission on Water, supported by an experts panel,

be created to steer the formulation of the strategies and ensure the implementation of the

strategies proposed.

Water is the resource that sustains all life on earth and is a key element of sustainable

development. It is a universal truth that meager resources compel for their better utilization and

preservation. Most of developing countries lack in renewable fresh water resources. In Pakistan,

it is more important than ordinary due to the agrarian nature of its economy. Since water is the

major input in agriculture, the agricultural productivity and its sustainability depend on the

timely and adequate availability of water. The water demand varies in both space and time,

however, the water supply is at the best fixed and its availability is at the mercy of nature.

In this paper Bhatti, Suttinon and Nasu (2009) comprehensively describe the present

situation of irrigated water, crop yield, current agriculture practices and impact of climatic

change on agriculture and economy. They developed the water demand management model for

agriculture sector and future water and food demand is forecasted under different environmental

scenarios Pakistan is becoming scarce, while major parts of conventional resources have already

been developed. Improvement in current agricultural water use efficiency and conservation

practices, both in the rain-fed and irrigated agriculture, is the key to future agricultural and

economic growth. It is imperative for Pakistan to integrate climate change in overall

development strategies.

They further analyzed that water is not equally or even equitably distributed to everyone.

The gap between demand and supply of water across regions has increased the level of

interprovincial and trans-boundary conflicts in Pakistan. Little attention has been devoted to the

water projects instituted to store and divert Indus water in the upper Indus basin, which are

causing water shortage in Sindh province of Pakistan. This water shortage is further resulting in

economic, social, food and ecological problems, which is becoming a source of conflict between

provinces of the country.

Magsi and Salman (2012) in their study emphasize the mismanagement and flawed water

distribution policies, which are germinating inter-provincial social-conflicts. The article is in

descriptive in parts, where they try to evaluate shortage of water in Sindh province, with respect

to planning, storage and distribution of Indus water, and their impacts on the economic, social

and environmental life of the province. According to them fair Indus river system water policies

should be developed and implemented based on valid Sindh-Punjab agreements to ban

construction of any structures upstream until downstream needs of the lower Indus basin are met.

A new agreement should be developed that must recognize the internationally accepted lower

riparian rights and ensure sufficient water availability in the lower basin and the ecological

balance of the River Indus and the Indus delta.

Water is the greatest gift of nature and United Nations in a report has warned that global

warming is causing the melting of glaciers. In Pakistan its importance is more than ordinary due

to the agrarian nature of the economy. The increasing pressures of population and

industrialization have already placed greater demands on water, with an ever increasing number

and intensity of local and regional conflicts over its availability and use. That will raise the issue

of people migration and shortage of water. Most victim countries are Pakistan and India where

glaciers are melting rapidly and these countries are facing the increase in the problem of water

shortage day by day.

Nosheen and Begum (Research Scholar in ICP, 2010) in their article introduce the Indus

basin irrigation system in its historic context, and its economic impact on Pakistan’s socio-

economic development. They also discuss the Indus Water Treaty and its impacts on the

economy of India and Pakistan .Their article also brings forth the problems and difficulty that

emerged out of the interpretation and execution of the treaty with passage of time.

Water is basic necessity of life Water is an essential element for survival of living things.

It is vital factor for economic development for augmenting growth of agriculture and industry but

it is becoming increasingly scarce all over the world. All indicators of water availability show

that per capita supplies will continue to decline in the years ahead. Pakistan is also among the

countries that are facing water crisis.

Asrar-ul-Haq, Shakir and Shahid (2009) in their work highlight the looming water crisis

in Pakistan and bring out the urgent need to implement the water resources development projects

.The paper also reviews the constraints in the way of Kalabagh dam project in Pakistan, one of

the major reasons of water scarcity in Pakistan. The constraints in the implementation of

Kalabagh project in Pakistan can be categorized as technical and socio-political. Kalabagh is one

of the many potentional dam sites on river Indus and its tributaries. In their article they suggested

that for the sustainability of irrigated agriculture for generation of cheap hydropower there is an

urgent need to build storages on Indus river and Kalabagh is the most important. Furthermore

mechanism should be evolved to resolve the conflicts over the project by in initiating a process

of mutual consultation.

Hussain et.Al (2011) Estimate the supply and demand coupled with projections for future

in various sectors of economy. In their work they use water balance approach. The study

provides information on water balance and water use efficiency estimate in the competing

sectors. The basic knowledge about water use and availability is generated in a way that can be

useful for policy makers. They have also analyzed the conservation strategy. The study also

highlights the proposed and ongoing water projects. They articulate the water conservation

strategy for Pakistan in order to fulfill the future requirements. They also suggest that sound

water management strategies should be developed to increase water productivity, minimize water

losses and build a consensus on water dams.

Water is an essential element for survival of living things. It is vital factor for economic

development and for augmenting growth of agriculture and industry. Most of the studies are

conducted to address this issue.

Iftikhar and Chaudhry (2010) analyzed in their study the water resources and

conservation strategy of Pakistan. Since independence our country constructed only two big

dams i.e. Tarbela and Mangla. The sedimentation condition in these dams is declining the

storage capacity. Their study indicates that due to stagnant water resources the per capita water

availability is decreasing at an alarming rate. They also discuss the impacts of water shortage on

agriculture sector especially and on the social life of people. The study highlights the proposed

and ongoing water projects. Finally they conclude by proposing water conservation strategy for

Pakistan in order to fulfill the future requirements by looking to the sources of water.

In a country where growth is largely driven by agriculture, a shortage of water could have

serious impacts on the economy. With water availability on the decline and high rates of

population growth, Pakistan appears to be destined to make the transition to a water scarce

country.

Ennum (2013) analysed in her work that the deficit is growing with population growth

rates on the rise and coupled with problems such as global warming and climate change. Ennum

further explains that the role of regional politics too cannot be denied in aggravating Pakistan’s

water woes as the relationship dynamic with India determines the flow in the western rivers since

the source lies in disputed territory Kashmir and has has implications for internal politics vis-à-

vis distribution of water within the provinces. She conclude that there is a dire need to chalk out

a policy that helps to conserve and manage the resource effectively to meet food security and

energy needs as well.

Fahim (2012) in his study examined the impact of water scarcity on food security in an

era of climate change. The research effort probes the links among water scarcity, climate change,

food security, water security, food inflation, poverty and management of water resources. The

study develops a series of models that captures the impact of water scarcity on the components of

food security at micro level. The findings so obtained may help in proposing the policy

guidelines for overcoming water scarcity and handling with food insecurity caused by water

scarcity.

After thousands of years of human development in which water has been a plentiful

resource in most areas, amounting virtually to a free good, the situation is now changing

suddenly to the point where, particularly in the more arid regions of the world, water scarcity has

become the single greatest threat to food security, human health and natural ecosystems. In the

next century, more than a quarter of the world’s population or a third of the population in

developing countries living in regions will experience severe water scarcity.

In this paper Seckler, Barker and Amarasinghe (2010) conducted study on the water

supply in different countries of the world. In the semi-arid regions of Asia and the Middle East,

which include some of the major breadbaskets of the world, the groundwater table is falling at an

alarming rate. They briefly review and interpret the estimates of water supply and examine the

kinds of research and information needs that are necessary to manage water resources more

efficiently and productively in the twenty first century. They also discussed the problem of

groundwater pollution which is depleting the world’s fresh water resources. At the end they

suggest that there is an urgent need to focus the attention of both professionals and policy makers

on the problems of groundwater depletion especially in the semiarid regions of Asia and the

Middle East, regions containing some of the major breadbaskets of the world such as the Punjab

and the North China Plain, to ensure food security.

Water is the essential component both for the existence of mankind and for the

sustainable country’s economic growth Today emphasis on the integrated water resource

management and proper utilization of available water is more than ever before. Pakistan is

situated in the western part of the Indo-Pak sub-continent and has the indus river and and its

major tributaries but Pakistan is suffering from drought conditions due to which reduction in

river discharges and lesser rains occurred.

Sufi, Hussain, Sultan and Tariq (2012) have conduct descriptive analysis of integrated

water resources and observed that reliance on ground water has increased remarkably and

extensive pumping is observed during the last decade. They have also analyzed the storage

capacity and storage losses of mega dams of Pakistan and also the average annual flows of rivers

of Indus basin. Furthermore, in their study, they also analyze the present and future requirements

of agriculture, industry, municipal and environment. They emphasize on the integrated water

resource management that includes harvesting the rain water by developing small and medium

dams on hill torrents and by adopting techniques of ground water recharging so as to mitigate

effects of extensive pumpage. They suggest that to integrate the available water in the system

management of water resources and its utilization, a series of dams are needed, in a way that

river flows are tamed in steps and reservoirs are managed as a cascade. Furthermore they say that

canal water supply management needs improvement to avoid wastage of water and to improve

the efficiency of irrigation system.

Air, water and soil are essential components of the ecosystem. Imbalance of any one of

the components may cause serious damage to the survivability of human life also cause

environmental degradation. Environmental degradation pertains to deterioration of

environmental conditions and circumstances, which affect humanity Water is also an essential

component of environment that helps organisms to sustain life. Deforestation, desertification,

polluted atmosphere and scarcity of water resources in the world are the main causes of

environmental degradation. Unfortunately, the environment of South Asia is on way to

deterioration. In South Asia, the depletion of water resources has become a looming crisis.

(WWO)

Mastoor (2009) in her research has analyzed that consumption of water in agriculture,

electricity production and Industry has increased against the limited water resources. According

to her various reasons of water depletion are industrialization, rapidly growing population and

careless attitude of South Asian countries towards their environment. In her study she has

categorized the problem of water scarcity under physical, economic and political water scarcity.

At the it is suggested by the author that a joint fund should be set up to enhance water storage

mechanism in South Asian states and also monitor and control water wastage in the region as most of

the water is used for irrigation purpose. Furthermore rain water should be stored to use it for domestic

purposes as South Asian countries receive abundant rain water during monsoon.

From the above study it is evident that water scarcity in Pakistan is increasing due to

increased population, global warming, ineffective planning, storage and distribution of water

resources, primitive agricultural practices, technical and socio-political constraints in the way of

different mega projects (Kalabagh Dam) and increased sedimentation condition of different

dams etc. It is also apparent that water shortage is affecting agriculture, industry and social life,

health conditions adversely in Pakistan. Moreover, it is also causing environmental degradation

and disturbance of natural ecosystem. Now it is need of the hour to see the overall impact of

water scarcity on Pakistan’s economy.

Chapter 3

Descriptive Analysis

In this chapter it is going to be analyzed that what are the impacts of water scarcity on the

Pakistan’s economy with the help of descriptive facts and figures. It is to see that how the

economy is oppressed by the ever increasing trend of water scarcity? How our agricultural

sector, industrial sector and the power generation is dependent on water? It will be revealed that

the pressure of population growth has increased the water demand.

Sources of Water

God has blessed Pakistan with reckless water resources, with water rolling down the

Himalayas and Karakorum heights, from the world’s largest glaciers, a free and unique bounty of

nature for this land of grainy plains. As a result of this natural resource, today we have the

world’s fabulous and the largest irrigation system that irrigates over 16 million hectors of land,

out of 34 million hectors of cultivable land available. Basically we have two major sources of

water i.e., surface water and ground water.

Surface Water

In surface water we have three hydrologic units.

Indus Basin River

Closed Basin Kharan Desert

Makran Coastal Basin

Indus Basin River

At the time of independence, we had about 67 MAF water available for deviation; this

amount increased to about 85 maf by 1960. In 1960 Pakistan signed a water treaty “Indus Water

Treaty” with India, which brought major changes in the sources of water for Pakistan. In that

agreement the right of three eastern rivers i.e., Beas, Sutlej and Ravi was given to India. Now the

Indus river basin constitutes of the mountain basins Indus plain, Karachi plain and desert areas of

Sindh. Its principle rivers and streams are Indus, Shyok, Gilgit, Astor, Siran, Kabul joined by

Jhelum, Chenab and Sutlej. It covers an area of 516,600 sq. km. Its source of water are icing,

glacier melting and drizzles. From this annually 141.67 maf of water is being received.

(WAPDA)

The table describes the required commitment and water availability to Kotri Barrage. It can be

seen that the difference between the required commitment and the availability of water is -16.81

MAF per annum. Due to loss of storage capacity of Kotri Barrage 13 MAF water falls into the

sea without being used.

Closed Basin Kharan Desert

It consists of areas of mountain basins of Quetta and basins of streams draining in to

Kharan Desert. Its main rivers are Pishin Lora, Baddo Rakhshan, Mashkhel and many other

streams. It covers an area of 120,100 sq. km. Its main sources of water are drizzle and nominal

snow. Here we are getting approximately 4.5 MAF of water. (UNICEF Pak.)

Makran Coastal Basin

Makran coastal basin constitutes of streams of Malir, Hub, Porali, Kud, Hingol, Nai,

Mashhai, Dasht, Nihing and Kech. It covers an area of 122,400 sq. km and its main source of

water is rainfall. From this basin 0.78 maf of water is received. (EOP)

Water is necessary for living beings constituting 50 to 90 percent of the weight of living

creatures. Presently water available in Pakistan is 1050 m3/capita/annum very close to the ‘water

stress level’. On an average it takes approximately 70 times more water to grow food than people

use directly for domestic purposes [SIWI and IWMI (2004)]. In view of high demand for crop

production, the stress is with reference to the availability for irrigation purposes and not for

domestic/hygienic/industrial use leaving aside its quality. Irrigation to crops use about 93 percent

of the water currently consumed in the country (FAO Pak). The rest is used by urban and rural

population/industry. Driven by increasing population, rapid urbanization and industrialization,

there is an ever growing demand and pressure on water resources and it is likely to increase

dramatically in years to come. The future demand for the year 2010-11 and 2024-25 has been

estimated as follows.

(Source: Food and Agriculture Organization Pak)

Groundwater

The Indus plains establish about 34 million hectors (over 85 million acres) of cultivable

land. The recharge or immersion to the ground is around 72 maf, out of which about 48 maf is in

the command of Indus basin irrigation system (ibis). Ground water is also found in some rain-fed

(barani) lands and inter-mountain gorges at depths varying from 100 to 200 feet.

After pointing out the main sources of water, let’s have a glance of the water available to

us through them. We get an average of 141.67 MAF of water from western rivers. Eastern rivers

contribute 8.47 maf of water. About 4 MAF of water is received from outside Indus plains.Water

available above rim stations is 5.28 MAF, whereas rainfalls below rim also add about 14 maf of

water. Also about 66.89 MAF ground water is available to us. In other words a total of 240.22

maf of water is available to us from the present sources.

For monitoring the water resources and for its operative utilization lets have a glance at the

present storages and its capacities.

Historical development of tubewells in Pakistan

(Source: GOP, 2013; WP 2014)

Water Reservoirs’ Capacities

Pakistan is having three basic reservoirs, explicitly Mangla Mam Reservoir, Terbela Dam

Reservoir and Chashma Barrage Reservoir. More small reservoirs like Warsak, Baran dam hub,

Khanpur, Tanda, Rawal, Simly, Bakht khan Hamal lake, Mancher lake, Kinjhar lake and

Chotiari lake Arealso included as small storage. The storage capacity of these reservoirs is as

shown on the view foil.

These are three major reservoirs in Pakistan:

Terbela Dam Reservoir

Mangla Dam Reservoir

Chashma Barrage Reservoir

Terbela Dam Reservoir

World’s largest earth and stun filled dam was made at Terbela on river Indus in 1976 with a

gross capacity of 11.62 maf and a live storage capacity of 9.68 MAF. With the passage of time,

due to silting, 24.6% of the storage has been absent and now it has a live storage of 7.295 MAF.

In addition to fulfilling primary purpose of the Dam i.e. equipping water for Irrigation, Tarbela

Power Station has produced 341.139 Billion KWh of cheap hydl energy since commissioning. A

record annual generation of 16.463 Billion KWh was recorded during 1998~99. Annual

generation during 2007~08 was 14.959 Billion KWh while the Station shared peak load of 3702

MW during the year which was 23.057% of total WAPDA System Peak.

Mangla Dam Reservoir

Mangla reservoir is the second major storage of Pakistan. It was made in 1967 on river

Jhelum with a gross capacity of 5.882 maf and live storage of 5.41 maf. Again due to siltation it

has lost 13.2% of its storage and currently can store 4.636 maf of water.

The dam was made between 1961 to 1967 across the Jhelum River, about 67 miles

(108 km) south-east of the Pakistani capital, Islamabad in Mirpur District of Azad

Kashmir, Pakistan. The Mangla Dam apparatuses contain a reservoir, main embankment, intake

embankment, main spillway, emergency spillway, intake structures, 5 tunnels and a power

station. Besides the main dam, a dyke called Sukian – 17,000 feet in length and a small dam

called Jari Dam to block the Jari Nala – about 11 miles beyond the new Mirpur town had to be

constructed.

Chashma Barrage Reservoir

Chashma barrage is located on river Indus and was built in 1972 with a gross storage of

0.870 maf and live storage of 0.717 maf. It has also compact its storage capacity by 39.3% and is

left with a storage capacity of 0.435 maf.

The fixed capacity of power Station is 184 MW, from eight Kaplan-type bulb turbine

units each with a 23 MW capacity. The bulb turbines have been installed for the first time in

Pakistan. The first unit was hired in January 2001, while final commissioning of all units was

completed in July 2001.The 8 Kaplan-type turbines and synchronous generator units were made

by Fuji, Japan. Chashma Barrage is used for irrigation, flood control and power generation.

Utilization of Water

In Pakistan we utilize the water available to us for multiple purposes. The basic

utilization is for irrigation and then used for power generation, drinking and also provided to

some Industries.

Agricultural Water Demand

Pakistan is a country, which is required to double its annual food production every

15 years, in order to maintain its statuesque in meeting requirements of food. This

target, on the surface, may not look so demanding, as the country is bestowed with enough fertile

and productive lands and sufficient freshwater-resources. Despite the availability of these basic

resources, unfortunately the country has to import large quantities of food commodities every

year. With the current population of about 140 million people growing at the rate of almost 2.5%

per annum, the country would have to feed 120 million additional mouths by the year 2025.

(Source: FAO Pak)

Irrigation

As we all know that now a days our country is facing severe shortage of water. There are

two main reasons, one natural due to prolong drought---which is beyond the control of a man,

and the other due to the gross negligence in the development and mis-management of water

resources. The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries is 41.67 MAF, of which

97% is used in agriculture and the remaining 3% for domestic and Industrial purposes. Out of

141.67 maf, around 106 maf is annually diverted in to one of the largest but in-efficient irrigation

system. The remaining 36 maf goes into the sea unused – a total loss --. Out of 106 maf, diverted

into extensive irrigation net work, more than 50% is lost during the changing and the field

application before it reaches the crop root zone.

(Source: UNICEF Pak 2012)

Power generation

Water released by the hydropower plants returns to the river system. The reservoirs are

operated on priority bases only for irrigation. Recent increase in thermal generation has reduced

the potential conflicts between water releases from reservoirs for hydropower generation and

irrigation. Now most of the annual storage is utilized for irrigation and not for hydropower, but

conflicts do arise at times.

Drinking

Most of the rural and urban water is supplied from ground water through tube wells and

hand pumps except few cities like Karachi and Islamabad/Pindi. Total urban and rural (domestic

and commercial) requirements estimated is 10-15% of the surface water, out of which 80%

return to the system, however with degraded quality. Net consumption is normally about 2% of

the total water available.

Industry

Water is also utilized in Industries basically for cooling purposes and also in manufacturing

processes. This utility is less than 1%.By increasing the industrialization demand for water is

increasing day by day. The water used in industry cannot be recycled. This is also contributing in

water scarcity of Pakistan. This is all due to poor governance and lack of management.

Current and Future Water Requirements of Pakistan (2000-2025)

Population Growth and Water Scarcity

The population growth and per-capita water availability since 1940-41 is shown graphically

in Figure. Currently the same is about 1,100 m3 per person, a drop of over 60% in sixty year

periods. Average canal-water supplies to the Indus Basin canal commands are around 104 MAF.

Out of this, around 38 MAF are available during the Rabi-season. The shortage of water during

the current Rabiseason (2001-2002) would be over 40 per cent from that of the normal year. This

shortage of water not only affected the Rabi-season crops (area and productivity) but would also

affect the plantation of cotton crop, especially in the Sindh province, as the crop is planted much

earlier than in Punjab.

(Source: EOP 2010)

Shortage of Water

As we all know that now a days our country is facing severe shortage of water. There are

two main reasons, one natural due to prolong drought---which is beyond the control of a man,

and the other due to the gross negligence in the development and miss-management of water

resources. The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries is 41.67 maf, of which 97%

is used in agriculture and the remaining 3% for domestic and Industrial purposes. Out of 141.67

maf, around 106 maf is annually diverted in to one of the largest but in-efficient irrigation

system. The remaining 36 maf goes into the sea unused – a total loss --. Out of 106 maf, diverted

into an extensive irrigation net work, more than 50% is lost during the changeling and the field

application before it reaches the crop root zone.

(Source: UNICEF Pak)

Impact on economy

Agriculture is our backbone and the water flowing in the channels to the crops is its blood

line—and if there is no or less water then we should be prepared for facing problems

economically as well as socially. According to the estimates of federal government, the

agriculture sector would suffer a loss of about Rs.90 billion because of drought. Since agriculture

has remained a major source of shouldering the already crippled economy, it has a vital role to

play particularly in terms of food security and employment of the ever-burgeoning population of

the country. It contributes around 35 % to the GNP and employs about 44% of labor force. It also

contributes 65% of our export earning. The adverse effects of water shortage on agriculture

would have a spiraling effect on the prevailing level of poverty.We can see the effects of water

scarcity by the following facts:

Less water means less agricultural yields and to fulfill the food requirements of the

nation, we will be dependent on other countries.

Raising livestock is the main source of livelihood of rural areas. it is also an important

economic activity, which contributes 9.7% of GDP, will be affected due to shortage of

water.

Orchards of Pakistan bring home a healthy amount of foreign exchange, which can be

affected due water shortage.

Due to less production of main crops, which are wheat, cotton, sugar cane and rice, the

Industries related to them will suffer adversely.

Then due to drought and more dependency on ground water for irrigation, the water table

will go down, and this will cause water constrains to the population.

Less agricultural outputs will compel people to head towards urban areas for jobs, which

will increase the unemployment further.

The distribution of water is controlled from the center by irsa (Indus river system

authority) as per 1991 agreement between the provinces. Now the shortage of water will

cause disputes between the provinces, which may cause harm to the national integrity.

Impacts of Floods on Economy:

Due to poor management and negligence of government, Pakistan is failed to store the

surplus water. Because of this we have to face natural disasters like, floods and droughts.

Due to floods we waste a major part of our water and crops. Floods create water scarcity that

is very harmful to the economy of Pakistan. We can see the impacts of floods as follows.

The floods have displaced 20 million people, damaged or destroyed more than one

million houses, infrastructure, and washed away standing crops from 10 percent of

the cultivable area

Preliminary estimate of flood damages prepared by the World Bank and ADB amount

about $ 10 billion.

Researchers at Ball State University and Tennessee State University have put the

damage to the infra-structure, buildings, contents and agricultural assets between $5.1

– 7.1 billion.

The recent IMF report has concluded that the economic outlook has deteriorated

sharply. The agricultural sector has been hit hard and the loss of output would reduce

GDP by over 2 percent. These output losses combined with disruption in supply

chains arising from damage to infrastructure have pushed up the prices of food,

vegetables and fruits.

Floods had also disrupted international trade with the supplies of exports and imports

held up and fuel could not be delivered to power plants. Inflationary pressures will

thus intensify and inflation rate may rise to about 14 percent.

The provisional estimates as reported by the provinces to the Federal Committee on

Agriculture (FCA) suggest that the size of the cotton crop is 9.5 million bales as

against the target of 9.7 million bales and last year's production of 11.24 million

bales. In other word, the size of the cotton crop is 15.4 lower than that of last year.

 The latest information suggests that the area sown under sugarcane was 7.5% below

the target (925,000 hectares against 1.0 million hectares). In Punjab, the area sown

was 10.6% below the target, mainly due to the shortage of water.

In N.W.F.P., the area sown is at the last year's level. The provisional estimates, as

reported by the provinces suggest that the size of the sugarcane crop is 41.8 million

tons as against the target of 51.6 million tons and last year's production of 46.33

million tons.

Sugarcane production is 12.3% lower than last year. Rice was targeted to be sown in

2.411 million hectares area and production was targeted at 5.1 million tons. The

sowing time for rice in Sindh was June/July and for Punjab it was July/August. As a

result of the shortage of water, 78% area was sown under rice crop in Sindh.

Chapter 4

Conclusion and Recommendations:

Water has an importance in the economy like blood in the veins. Deficiency of water can

harm the economy badly. The brutality of the water crisis cannot be snubbed while tracking

economic development as it obliges as the pillar of the economy. The dearth is rising with

population growth rates on the rise and coupled with problems such as global warming and

climate change, the problem has become a serious challenge for those working at the

policy-making level.

The problems faced by the water sector in the country are many, acute and serious and it

is also known that we can generate about 83 maf of more water. Therefore, building of more

reservoirs and an effective management strategy are the needs of time. Also implementation

of the recommendations will enable the country to meet the challenges, and achieve the

objectives of integrated, efficient, environmentally and financially sustainable development

and management of limited water resources. At the same time it will enable us to utilize

every drop of our water for our bright future.

It is high time to take the issue of water as a matter of life and death for our economy.

Because without proper access of water our agriculture sector can not grow. On the other hand

we have to tackle the problem of flood which has proved very destructive to our economy. Due

to water scarcity the early crop of province Sindh delays ten to fifteen days. During these fifteen

days India exports his vegetables to Pakistan through Wagha Boarder and earns 12 biilion rupees

every year.

Recommendations:

Government should pay attention to tackle the floods.By this we can save the

damage of 10 billion dollars.

Decreasing capacities of major reservoirs should be recovered.

Canal water supply management needs improvement to avoid wastage of water

and to improve the efficiency of irrigation system.

Rain water should be stored to use it for domestic purposes.

Small dams and headworks should be constructed on canals.

A mechanism should be evolved to resolve the conflicts over the different dams

like Kalabagh Dam by initiating a process of mutual consultation.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

T h i s   t e r m   p a p e r   w o u l d   n o t   b e   a c c o m p l i s h e d   w i t h o u t   t h e   g e n e r o u s

contributions of any individuals and organizations. We are very much grateful to them for their

unlimited help and support.

Above all, we express our gratitude to ALLAH the almighty, who aided us with

his strength, gave us wisdom and patience to complete this term paper.

Additionally, we thank our supervisor “Professor Dr. Muhammad Afzal Ch. ” ,

w h o believed that we could terminate this term paper on time. His moral guidelines,

endless effort, and joyful encouragement made us successful in this paper.

Furthermore, we want to show our appreciation to non-teaching staff, the library

staff, and to the lab-assistants of the computer labs, for their unlimited patience and generous

support during the time of research writing.

Moreover, we are also thankful to our classmates, group members, and friends

for their helps and supports. We would like to show our endless gratitude by specifying name of

HASSAN DANISH for his support in this term paper.

At last, we thank to our parents and other family members for their helps, supports and

sacrifices during the study period.