The potential of local renewable energy initiatives

transcript

Title learning thesis The potential of local renewable energy initiatives

Author Jasper Tonen

Research period October 2012 – October 2013

Education Master Energy and Environmental Sciences University of Groningen, the Netherlands In cooperation with the Centre of Applied Research and Innovation – Energy, Hanze University of Applied Sciences, the Netherlands

Supervisors Drs. D.M. Ree, University of Groningen Dr. R.M.J. Benders, University of Groningen Dr. H.J. van der Windt, University of Groningen Dr. R.J. Velthuijs, Hanze University of Applied Sciences

There are good people, who are in politics and business, who hold this at arm’s length, because if they acknowledge and recognize it, then the moral imperative to make big changes

is inescapable. Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth, documentary film, 2006

List of Abbreviations BIPV Building Integrated PhotoVoltaics CBS Central Bureau of Statistics CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CHP Combined Heat and Power DSO Distribution System Operator ETP Energy Transition Project EU European Union EUE Expected Unserved Electricity FMF Friesland Milieu Federation GHG Green House Gasses IEA International Energy Agency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LOLP Loss Of Load Probability

LREI Local Renewable Energy Initiative MEED Model to Evaluate Electricity Demand MLP MultiLevel Perspective NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NIMBY Not In My BackYard NMF Nature Milieu Federation NMG Nature Milieu federation Groningen PV PhotoVoltaics SDE+ Subsidy Renewable Energy SER Social Economic Council SMD Simultaneous Maximum Demand TFC Total Final Consumption TM Transition Management

TPES Total Primary Energy Supply TSO Transmission System Operator UK United Kingdom Energy Units TJ Tera Joule, 1012 Joule PJ Peta Joule, 1015 Joule MW Megawatt, 106 Watt GW Gigawatt, 109 Watt TW Terawatt, 1012 Watt MWh Megawatt hour MWhe Megawatt hour electric MWth Megawatt thermal MW/km2 Megawatt per square kilometre MWp Megawatt peak

Wp/m2 Watt peak per square meter

SUMMARY 6

SAMENVATTING 7

1. INTRODUCTION 9

1.1 MOTIVATION 9 1.2 AIM AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS 10

2. CONCEPT OF LOCAL ENERGY 11

2.1 METHOD 11 2.2 DECENTRALISED ENERGY PRODUCTION 12 2.3 LOCAL RENEWABLE ENERGY INITIATIVES 13

3. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 14

3.1 TRANSITION THEORY 14

4. THEORETICAL POTENTIAL OF DECENTRALISED ENERGY 16

4.1 DUTCH ENERGY SUPPLY 16 4.2 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS 18 4.3 ONSHORE WIND ENERGY 19 4.4 BIOMASS 20 4.5 OTHER RENEWABLE SOURCES 20 4.6 SUMMARY 21

5. BALANCING DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN SPATIAL CONTEXT 22

5.1 IMPACT OF DECENTRALISED ENERGY PRODUCTION 22 5.2 DEMAND MODEL 24 5.3 SUPPLY MODEL 24 5.4 DATA JUSTIFICATION 25 5.5 SPATIAL SETTINGS 26 5.6 MODELLING RESULTS 29 5.7 BROADER PERSPECTIVE 31

6. CURRENT STATUS OF LOCAL ENERGY INITIATIVES 34

6.1 MOTIVATION 34 6.2 CLASSIFICATION 35 6.3 CURRENT STATUS 37 6.3.1 FOUNDING YEARS LREI’S 37 6.3.2 DEGREE OF VOLUNTEERS 37

6.3.3 LEGAL BASIS 38 6.3.4 INITIATORS OF LREI 38 6.3.5 SIZE OF THE INITIATIVES 39 6.4 AMBITION AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE 40

7. HURDLES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF LOCAL RENEWABLE ENERGY INITIATIVES 42

7.1 HURDLES OF LOCAL RENEWABLE ENERGY INITIATIVES 42 7.1.1 ACCORDING TO LOCAL RENEWABLE ENERGY INITIATIVES 42 7.1.2 ACCORDING TO INTERVIEWED EXPERTS 44 7.1.3 ACCORDING TO LITERATURE 46 7.2 INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLES 47 7.2.1 SAMSO, DENMARK 47 7.2.4 BIOENERGIEDORF JÜHNDE, GERMANY 49 7.2.2 TOUCHSTONE ENERGY COOPERATIVES, UNITED STATES 50 7.2.3 BIZEN CITY, JAPAN 50 7.2.5 GÜSSING, AUSTRIA 51 7.3 OPPORTUNITIES AND SOLUTIONS TO OVERCOME THE HURDLES 51 7.3.1 MACRO LEVEL 51 7.3.2 MESO LEVEL 53 7.3.3 MICRO LEVEL 54 7.3.4 GOVERNMENT AMBITION AND PERSPECTIVE 56 7.4 TRANSITION INDICATORS 58

8. CONCLUSION 59

9. DISCUSSION AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE 60

REFERENCES 64

APPENDICES 67

SUMMARY

The Netherlands is a traditional gas nation, which is a major stimulator of the economy. Around 60% of the electricity is generated by using gas. The current energy system is highly centralised. A growing part of the society is in favour of increasing the amounts of renewable energy. Bottom-up energy initiatives can successfully increase the renewable energy shares, although the system needs to become more decentralised. The theoretical potential according to literature of the mostly locally utilised energy sources solar PV, wind and biomass is debatable and can reach shares of around 6% of the total final consumption from the conservative perspective and around 76% from the optimistic perspective. It should be noted that the potential only includes the availability of resources within agricultural and residential lands. For instance, offshore wind energy is not part of the theoretical potential, since local energy initiatives are most likely unable to contribute in this. Calculating the consequences of local energy production indicates a great potential for villages and townships that are able to become energy self-sufficient without grid support, while a larger city will need around 65% grid support to maintain a reliable electricity system. The excess of unused renewable in less densely populated regions can be used to supply parts of the city while the Dutch provinces of Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe together can potentially generate more local electricity than they consume, but due to the intermittent character of wind and solar PV they will need around 14% of grid support. An increasing share of people decides to contribute to a more sustainable future by getting involved in local renewable energy initiatives. Various reasons are the basis for this decision, such as the inactive government, climate change and the reduction of energy dependency. The number of local energy initiatives has grown rapidly during the last few years and already exceeds 400 initiatives varying from co-operations, private companies, foundations and work groups. Most initiatives focus on solar energy, while wind and biomass activities are also quite common. Currently their energy contribution is small, but the technical potential showed that if major hurdles can be overcome the initiatives can have a significant contribution in the transition towards a more renewable energy supply. The local energy initiatives are struggling with major obstacles such as attracting members or volunteers, generating financial means, public resistance, lack of government support and insufficient knowledge about law and regulations, management, business and finances. Changes in government policy and law and regulations at the macro level are needed, which can be influenced by system forces and the societal impact. Regime support and technical tools, such as energy storage, smart grid systems and the creation of local distribution network to reduce the pressure on the central grid are needed at the meso level. The initiatives should seek cooperation with the regime and must try to set up an overarching local energy system to create more body. The lower level governments at the micro level should provide the initiatives with knowledge tools and help to raise awareness and increase the social support. Improved financial constructions are needed to help initiatives getting beyond the start-up phase. There is great potential for the growing group of local renewable energy initiatives to occupy a significant share in the energy system. A transition towards a more sustainable society in which local energy has an increasing role is influenced by the different aspect on multiple levels, but also determined by more external indicators like price development, deepening of the economic crisis, innovations and international policy.

SAMENVATTING Nederland is van oudsher een gasland en de gasbaten hebben geleid tot economische voorspoed. Het genereren van elektriciteit is zelfs voor 60% door gas voorzien. Het huidige systeem is gebaseerd op een centrale productie van energie, terwijl hernieuwbare energie vaak decentraal opgewekt wordt. Er is in toenemende mate vraag naar hernieuwbare energie en energie initiatieven van onderop is groeiende. Het theoretische potentieel van lokaal opgewekte zon, wind en biomassa ligt volgens de literatuur tussen de 6% en 76% van the totale finale energie consumptie in Nederland. Het potentieel van lokaal opgewekte energie is berekend aan de hand van de beschikbaarheid vanuit de agrarische en huishoudelijke sector, waardoor het potentieel van hernieuwbare energie dus hoger ligt. Het elektriciteitssysteem is gesimuleerd waarbij de ruimtelijke eigenschappen varieerde, waardoor verschillende hoeveelheiden en verhoudingen van hernieuwbare elektriciteit getoetst konden worden. Het simuleren van een gemiddeld dorp en gehucht laat zien dat er meer dan genoeg elektriciteit opgewekt kan worden dan dat er geconsumeerd wordt. Tevens blijft het systeem stabiel functioneren. Een forse stad heeft echter voor 65% ondersteuning nodig van het landelijke net om stabiliteit te kunnen garanderen. De overvloed aan hernieuwbare energie in de landelijke gebieden kan dus gebruikt worden om de stad te ondersteunen. De provincies Groningen, Friesland en Drenthe kunnen gezamenlijk met lokaal opgewekte energie meer genereren dan er geconsumeerd wordt, echter is er voor 14% ondersteuning nodig vanuit het landelijke net om het systeem stabiel te houden. Steeds meer mensen besluiten bij te dragen aan een meer duurzame samenleving en een aanzienlijk deel besluit zich aan te sluiten bij een lokaal duurzaam initiatief. Een inactieve overheid, klimaatverandering of meer energie onafhankelijkheid zijn redenen die hieraan ten grondslag liggen. De laatste paar jaar is het aantal lokale duurzame initiatieven explosief gegroeid en inmiddels zijn er meer dan 400, welke zich organiseren als coöperatie, BV, vereniging of werkgroep. De meeste initiatieven participeren in zon energie, maar wind en biomassa is ook veelvoorkomend. De huidige bijdrage in de energie voorziening is verwaarloosbaar, echter het technisch potentieel is groot. De initiatieven lopen tegen uiteenlopende barrières aan die de ontwikkeling hinderen. Voorbeelden hiervan zijn, generen van financiën, publieke weerstand, onvoldoende (of zelfs tegenwerkende) overheid ondersteuning en onvoldoende kennis van zaken. Tevens hebben ze de grootste moeite om leden of vrijwilligers te betrekken. Vanuit een transitie bril zijn politieke en regelgeving veranderingen nodig op het macro niveau, welke beïnvloedt worden door de wil van de samenleving. Ondersteuning vanuit het energie regime en technische aanpassingen van het net op meso niveau kunnen een bijdrage leveren aan het versnellen van de transitie. Ook zijn technieken, zoals energie opslag en slimme netten nodig om hernieuwbare energie in te kunnen passen. Krachten bundeling van initiatieven is nodig om meer body te creëren en de invloed op het beleid en het regime te vergroten. Op micro niveau kunnen de lokale overheden de initiatieven voorzien van kennis en helpen om het bewustzijn te vergroten en meer ruchtbaarheid te geven aan het initiatief. Initiatieven zijn gebaat bij financiële constructies, zoals een investeringsbank, in de start fase van het project. De potentie is zeker aanwezig en een transitie waarbij lokale energie in toenemende mate een rol kan spelen is absoluut realistisch, hoewel er een verschil is tussen de sociale potentie van bijvoorbeeld zon en wind, aangezien wind energie op veel tegenstand stuit. Barrières voorkomend in verschillende lagen van de samenleving zijn bepalende voor het slagen van de transitie en in het bijzonder voor lokale hernieuwbare energie initiatieven. Tevens zijn externe factoren, zoals prijs ontwikkeling, de economische crisis, innovaties en internationale

politiek van belang.

1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Motivation According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (2012) “Climate change is one the great challenges of the 21st century”. The industrialised world consumes lots of resources and pollutes the environment to a great extent. The emission of Green House Gasses (GHG) is still growing and the IPCC predicts a temperature increase of 6 degrees by 2100 in comparison to pre-industrialised times, given the business as usual scenario. The impact of climate change not only drastically influences the environment, but is also considered to negatively affect socio-economic levels of wealth as well as quality of life. Sustainable development is widely acknowledged as the necessary precondition for future development according to the Brundland report (WCSD, 1987). In 1992 the United Nations developed a global action plan for sustainable development. The local agenda 21 planning guide (ICLEI and IDRC, 1996) supported the idea of local participation. A wide variety of motivation can cause consumers to be actively involved within local energy initiatives, ranging from community building, financially beneficial, being in control, reducing impact on nature, etc. The acceptability increases when people are voluntarily involved. The economy can benefit from the promotion of small scale innovations, as innovation is a key factor to achieve a competitive economy. Furthermore, innovation brings about the possibilities to tackle long term reductions in GHG (Thalmann, 2007). The energy system will become diverse, which increases the flexibility of the system. But, the complexity will also increase, because of wide variety of involved parties. The government will have a decreased control over the transition. Of course, government stimulation or inhibition, by setting rules or developing tax and subsidy schemes, can strongly influence a certain transition, but the final change is to be achieved by a wide variety of small private parties. The local governments can set up partnerships with the community and relevant Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO’s) to guide the transition towards the desired future (ICLEI and IDRC, 1996). Consumers, companies and institutions have a growing interest in generating energy, locally. The amount of local energy initiatives is growing rapidly in the Netherlands (Schwenke, 2012), exceeding 400 initiatives. This increases the impact on the energy system. Decentralised production at the micro level calls for bidirectional energy streams and the current system is not designed to function as such. This can lead to problems, especially when the share of decentralised energy increasingly turns into a factor of importance (Viral and Khatod, 2012). Improved energy systems, for example smart grids and storage systems, have to be developed in order to facilitate a reliable future energy network based on the desires and needs of the society. That the system remains reliable and that local initiatives can evolve co-operation with the regime is important. Larger parts of the society become aware of the necessity to increase the Dutch renewable shares. Local energy can contribute in this.

1.2 Aim and research questions The current energy system is highly centralised and secure. A decentralised system could be an alternative to making the system more efficient and to decreasing the environmental impact. Since the interest of consumers in local energy production is rapidly growing, it is important to research the potential of local energy production. The aim is to research the potential of the local energy initiatives from a contemplative perspective. The main research question can be described as followed: What is the potential of local renewable energy initiatives in the transition towards a sustainable energy future in the Netherlands? To answer the overall research question some sub-questions are to be defined:

What is the theoretical potential of decentralised energy production in the energy

transition?

What can be the consequences of decentralised energy production in respect to the

grid stability in spatial context?

What is the current status of local energy initiatives in the Netherlands and how can

they be classified?

What are the hurdles and opportunities of local energy initiatives?

Before the research questions can be answered the method is described, which represents the body of the research and the components which have been included into the system. Also, the definitions of decentralised energy production and local renewable energy initiatives are described in chapter 2. The theoretical framework as presented in chapter 3 explains the transition concept and the multilevel perspective defines the micro, meso and macro levels. The research questions will be answered within different chapters, starting with the theoretical potential of decentralised energy in chapter 4. Chapter 5 shortly discusses the impact of increased amounts of decentralised energy according to literature and by modelling the supply and demand in spatial context the consequences of locally produced electricity in respect to the grid stability can be formulated. The current status of local energy initiatives in the Netherlands and the future perspective is debated in chapter 6. The hurdles and opportunities of local energy initiatives as indicated by themselves, the expert interviews and literature are discussed in chapter 7. Finally, the results will be summarised and discussed.

2. CONCEPT OF LOCAL ENERGY

As described in the introduction there is a growing interest in locally generating energy. The transition theory describes the multilevel perspective in which it is stated that the macro, meso and micro levels of the society need to participate in order to make the transition happening. The rules are shaped at the macro level and carried out at the meso level, while innovation starts at the micro level. This not only involves consumers who join forces, but also local and central governments, the current energy regime and other parties who want to be part of or possibly hinder this new development. Therefore it is important to make sure that research is approached from different perspectives. The system design needs to take this into account. Also, it is important to distinguish between decentralised energy and local energy and therefore there needs to be a clear definition of both. 2.1 Method The system design is shown in figure 2.1 and shows the different perspectives from which the research is approached. The technical potential is researched first, followed by the societal impact of local energy initiatives and the hurdles they face to become an important factor in the transition. Some basic criteria have been identified. Since the answers coming from the questionnaires and interviews can be very broad there are no strict boundaries, except from the research being about the Netherlands and the focus being put on the societal, regulation and technical aspects. The interviewed experts are chosen based on the involved actors. Together, a broad perspective over the potential of local renewable energy initiatives can be derived. Technical potential The theoretical potential of local energy production and the consequences of large shares of decentralised energy in respect the stability of the grid are part of the technical potential. Literature analysis is used to derive the theoretical potential of solar PV, onshore wind energy and biomass. These energy sources are the most common renewables and are suited for local energy purposes. The theoretical potential is described in chapter 4. The methods used to calculate the theoretical potential are subsequently used to predict the potential electricity supply of three different areas varying in population density, electricity consumption patterns and land use characteristics. The electricity supply with energy sources like wind and solar PV is rather intermittent and the demand for electricity often does not fit with the supply. Supply and demand balancing is therefore needed and the electric power system modelling program PowerPlan is used to predict the stability of the specified area and the degree of self-sufficiency in cases when there is no grid-support. If grid-support is needed the system will be adapted in order to maintain grid stability. Societal potential The technical potential gives an indication of the maximum contribution of local energy in the energy transition. The society (also includes government and regime) is responsible for realising the transition. The questionnaire was performed to enable a description of the current status of local energy initiatives and to identify common hurdles, which inhibits their growth. It was spread amongst the publically available 160 local initiatives as presented by HierOpgewekt (2013). The amount of initiatives presented changes regularly, thus the initiatives as of April 1, 2013 have been selected. The response rate was 50%, thus a total number of 80 respondents replied to the questionnaire. The questions can be found in appendix A1. The answers given by the respondents were used to classify and judge the current status of the LREIs, as described in chapter 6. As a result their motivation, goals, legal basis, energy resource choices, degree of volunteers, size and ambition can be described. The interviewed experts who are closely involved with local energy initiatives, have

knowledge about transitions or are familiar with the energy system can provide information not available in literature. The interviewed experts indicated what the future potential of local energy can become. The potential growth of the initiatives and their potential contribution to the transition can be inhibited by hurdles. Chapter 7 focusses on identifying hurdles and also presents some possible opportunities and solutions to tackle large parts of the hurdles based on the multilevel perspective. International examples provided by literature can give more insights into possible strategies to realise a transition. Although literature has provided a significant amount of information about the topic, the rise of local energy initiatives in the Netherlands is a rather new phenomenon. Therefore the questionnaire and expert interviews are used to identify hurdles and also to suggest possible solutions. The initiatives were asked to indicate which problems they encountered during and after the founding of their initiative. This also reveals the significance of some hurdles. The interviews provided information on why the Netherlands are falling behind when it comes to the up-scaling of renewables, what the main hurdles for decentralised energy are and to seek for opportunities to speed up the transition. A short introduction about the experts is given in appendix A3. After the possible opportunities and solutions to hurdles have been identified a perspective is presented about potential of local renewable energy initiatives and to what extent they are able to fulfil the technical potential.

Potential ofLocal Renewable Energy Initiatives

Actors Consumers Local and higher level governments Energy regime Research institutes Entrepreneurs

Technical aspect Literature analysis Modelling

Societal aspect Literature Expert interviews Questionnaire

International examples

Criteria The Netherlands Societal function Government regulation Technical boundaries

Figure 2.1. Schematic overview of system design and research approach.

2.2 Decentralised energy production There is not an overall accepted definition of decentralised energy generation. Definitions can be very specific, hereby defining the maximum size of installation, ownership, degree of consumer participation or network connections. Viral and Khatod (2012) define the size of decentralised production as being micro-distributed (~1W<5kW), small-distributed (5kW-5MW), medium-distributed (5-50MW) or large distributed (50-300MW). E-risk group (2012) express the role of consumers and local government institutions. Kaundinya et al. (2009) focus on the importance of meeting local demand in which the system can function in the presence of a grid or stand-alone (isolated from the grid). ECN et al. (2012) reported about the Dutch shares of decentralised electricity production, which is 32% (42.3 TWh). The report states that 30.5 TWh is produced by decentralised natural gas, indicating that decentralised energy production is not by definition renewable. Also, the decentralised natural gas facilities are most certainly not (partially) owned by consumers. Allen et al. (2008) formulated a broad definition: Decentralised or distributed energy supply refers to the generation of energy close to the point of use. In other words, decentralised energy can be defined as ‘The energy is consumed close to where it is generated and in principle is not meant to be transported over long distances’.

2.3 Local renewable energy initiatives Since decentralised energy production is not necessarily renewable neither in cooperation nor under the ownership of the local community, a more specific terminology is needed. The energy system can basically be dissected into a 2x2 matrix to generate energy. The matrix is shown in figure 2.2. The current system functions as a top-down centralised energy system, although the top-down decentralised share in electricity (42.3 TWh) is not to be neglected. Local energy initiatives mainly operate from a decentralised bottom-up perspective. There could be an exception, in which centralised energy is generated from a bottom-up perspective, for instance by collectively purchasing a wind turbine belonging to a centralised wind farm.

Figure 2.2. 2x2 matrix of energy generating possibilities.

Local energy focuses on the active community or/and consumer participation. The definition of Local Renewable Energy Initiatives (LREI) is adopted from Boon (2012) and can be described as: ‘local organisations that are initiated and managed by agents from civil society, that aim to educate or facilitate people on energy use and efficiency, that enable the collective procurement of renewable energy or technologies or that actually provide, i.e. generate, treat or distribute, renewable energy derived from various renewable resources for consumption by inhabitants, participants or members who live in the vicinity of the renewable resource or where the renewable energy is generated’. The definition clearly states that various LREIs can have different goals from which they operate and is very broad. No distinction is made between the size of the initiatives that, consequently, can be very small (e.g. a renewable committee within the neighbourhood association) or rather large (e.g. an energy cooperation with over 1000 customers), but always follows a bottom-up perspective.

3. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND Literature provides a wide variety of information about energy transitions. This section briefly starts to describe the concept of a sustainable energy system and the transition management theory. 3.1 Transition theory Sustainable development describes the societal process of development that "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (WCED, 1887). Connelly (2007) describes sustainable development as a balance between the environment, economy and society, figure 3.1. “Transitions are transformation processes in which society changes in a fundamental way over a generation or more” (Rotmans, 2001). A sustainable energy transition can therefore be seen as a transition in which the environment, society and economy are brought together to reach a final state of equilibrium, that follows up to the needs of future generations.

Figure 3.1. Sustainable development (Connelly, 2007).

Transition management theory (TM) as described by Rotmans indicates that governments set the conditions, but the transition is in the end chosen by society. Rotmans uses the multilevel perspective (MLP) described by Geels (2002) to define the interconnection between the socio-technical landscape (macro level), the patchwork of regimes (meso level) and the niche (micro level), figure 3.2. The macro level can be seen as the overarching politics, macro economy, natural environment and deals with forces as the international energy market and European Union policy. The meso level carries out the rules set by the macro level and should optimise the systems. The current Dutch energy regime can be seen as an actor on the meso level. The micro level relates to the individual or small practices, which often starts envisioning processes and innovations. The transition starts with novel configurations (1) shaped by one of the three levels. After the conditions have been set a take off stage (2) is entered and the regime is modified. Finally, the socio-technical landscape is evolved (3) and the transition is completed. Constant evaluation is needed to prohibit the system from reaching a status quo.

Figure 3.2. Dynamics of sociotechnical change (Kemp et al., 2001).

According to Rotmans active interactions between the three levels is needed to bring about the desired transition. In the Netherlands a top-down approach is aimed for. Kern and Smith (2008) analysed the energy transition policy in the Netherlands, which is based on TM theory, and established that the current energy regime (Shell, Essent, Gasunie, etc.) dominated the energy transitions project (ETP) that started in 2001. The government, environmental NGOs and niches are under-represented in this. The Dutch energy system should be clean, affordable and secure, but no clear choices are made by the national government. According to Kern and Smith the transition is inhibited by the rigid energy regime, despite the original ambition. A well-functioning interconnection between the three levels of the MLP is absent. Rotmans claims the regime seeks to improve existing technologies rather than focusing on new innovative techniques and initiators for change.

4. THEORETICAL POTENTIAL OF DECENTRALISED ENERGY According to the Energy Trends (2012) decentralised energy generation accounted for 42.3 TWh in 2010, from which the largest part was produced from natural gas (30.5 TWh). The decentralised energy share has gradually increased since 1995. The share of local energy initiatives in the decentralised production capacity is currently unknown, but given that fact that solar PV has a minimal share in the Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and most of the wind energy is in possession of the energy regime the local energy share is almost negligible in the larger picture. The potential however, is huge and this section outlines the potential of the most important local renewable energy resources, like solar PV, wind and biomass. First, the current Dutch energy supply is presented to indicate the fossil energy addiction in the Netherlands and the poor development of renewable in the last decade. 4.1 Dutch energy supply The new Dutch government adopted an ambitious policy to achieve a 14% renewable share by 2020 and a complete sustainable energy supply by 2050 (SER, 2013). The development of the energy supply over the years is depicted in figure 4.1. Gas (mainly for heat and electricity purposes) and oil (transportation) are, and will most likely, for the coming decades, remain the dominant energy sources in the Netherlands. The renewable share has gradually increased and accounts for 4.1% of the TPES (3246 PJ) in 2011. The Total Final Energy consumption in 2011 was 2712 PJ.

Figure 4.1. The TPES of the Netherlands from 1990-2012. Data from 2012 are provisionally. Adopted from CBS (2013).

As depicted in figure 4.2, relatively little change is observed in the TPES of hydro power, wind energy and biomass since 2008. Nonetheless, solar energy has showed a significant growth, especially in 2012. Despite this increase solar energy remains a fraction in the total share of renewable energy. And, although the quantity of renewables is increasing the percentage in the total energy usage is only slightly rising.

Figure 4.2. The TPES of renewable energy sources in the Netherlands from 2000-2012. Adopted from CBS (2013).*2012 data are provisionally.

A total of 113 TWh electricity was generated in 2011, which is 12.5% of TPES. Renewables justify 11% of the generated electricity as shown in figure 4.3. Within the TPES biomass is the predominant source of renewable energy, while the electricity supply also strongly depends on wind when it comes to the renewable sources. Non-renewable other sources are a combination of non-renewable waste, chemical gases and oil substances.

Figure 4.3. Electricity supply of the Netherlands separated by energy source. Adopted from CBS (2013).

The electricity consumption divided by sector is displayed in figure 4.4. Industry is the largest consumer of electricity, followed by the public and commercial services, which is combined into services and occupies 32% of the total electricity consumption. Although the transport sector uses a large amount of energy electricity is hardly consumed. The, for local energy most important, residential and agricultural sector together consumed 31.7 TWh in 2010.

Figure 4.4. Electricity consumption in the Netherland in 2010 divided by sector. Adopted from IEA (2012).

4.2 Solar photovoltaics The major advantage of solar photovoltaics (PV) is that it can basically be applied everywhere where the sun shines. It does not need extra available space, since the PV panels can be put on top of roofs of private or public buildings. Also, it is possible to centralised or decentralised built solar farms that do require space. This section only focuses on the technical potential of Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV), since almost every local PV initiative is about BIPV. A review about the potential of BIPV performed by de Noord et al. (2004) shows that the method used within the IEA (2002) study is very well suited to calculate the potential. According to the IEA the available solar-architecturally suitable roof area can roughly be calculated by multiplying the ground level floor area by 0.4. Thus, 100 m2 of floor area would result in 40 m2 of suitable roof area for solar PV. The façade area (exterior side of a building) from which 15% can be used for BIPV is also taken into account. The total potential is summarised in table 4.1. The theoretical potential of BIPV is calculated to be 30% of the total final electricity consumption, which is 4.2% of the TFC. It is assumed that the residential and agricultural sectors are suited for local energy purposes. Suppose all the potential solar electricity from the residential and agricultural sector can be used locally (20.2 TWh/y), 64% of the electricity consumption can be fulfilled with solar PV within the specified sectors. Given the fact that the numbers from table 4.1 are 2002 data and the efficiency of PV panels are expected to increase to 200 or even 300 Wp/m2 in the near future (Monfoort and Ros, 2008), the potential could double or even triple in the future. Monfoort and Ros estimate a technical potential between 80 and 120 GWp installed capacity.

Table 4.1. Solar energy potential of buildings in the Netherlands based on an average solar radiation of 1000 Wp/m2, an active solar cell surface of 85%, an efficiency of 10% and specific roof and façade slopes. An average power capacity of 100 Wp/m2 and a load factor of 9.35% are used (IEA, 2002 and Noord et al., 2004). Façades have a less ideal solar angle compared to roofs, which reduces the potential.

Residential Agricultural Industrial Other Total

Suitable roof area (km2) 127.48 42.70 52.75 36.43 259.36

Suitable façade (km2) 47.81 5.34 19.78 18.14 97.26

Potential solar energy production (TWh/y) on roofs

12.62 4.23 5.22 3.61 25.68

Potential solar energy production (TWh/y) on façades

3.05 0.34 1.26 1.16 6.21

Total potential solar energy production (TWh/y)

15.67 4.57 6.48 4.77 31.89

In 2010, solar photovoltaics produced 60 MWh in the Netherlands (IEA, 2012). To reach shares of around 20 TWh by 2050 a growth rate of 16% needs to be achieved annually, which can be accomplished by increasing the amount of PV panels and increasing the efficiency. It is not realistic that every suitable residential or agricultural roof will be supplied with solar panels, nonetheless if the efficiency would increase to 300 Wp/m2 only one third of the roofs are needed to supply about two third of the electricity demand within these sectors, assuming a constant electricity demand. 4.3 Onshore wind energy Unlike solar PV, wind energy requires extra space and permission procedures need to be followed. It is hard to place wind turbines out of sight and public resistance and unwilling provinces are very important non-technical aspects. Most wind energy is generated from a top down approach. For instance RWE has 12 sites in the Netherlands with a total capacity of 200 MW, from which Westereems (156 MW) is a centralised wind-farm (RWE, 2012). Nonetheless, local farmers can decide to put wind turbines in their pasture or co-operations can together purchase wind turbines. From a local energy perspective agricultural lands are suited for wind turbines. Noord et al. reviewed the potential of onshore wind energy and assessed the potential for wind turbines placed on agricultural lands. The available land area is multiplied by the turbine density (MW/km2) to calculate the installed capacity. The yearly electricity (GWh/y) output can be calculated by using the wind load factor. Noord et al. assume that between 2-4% of the agricultural lands are available, due to technical and social constraints. With a modest density of 10 MW/km2 (10-20 turbines, dependent on the size) an energy potential of 3.2 GW can be reached, which is 12% of the 2010 total installed electricity capacity (EIA, 2012). The total amount of produced electricity depends on the wind speed and the load factor varies between 16-34%. Taking an average of 25% the electricity production becomes 7 TWh/y, which is 22% of the residential and agricultural electricity consumption of 2010 and 6.6% of the total electricity consumption. A more recent study, performed by ETC/ACC (2008), towards the wind potential in Europe in 2020-2030 suggests a maximum power density of 15 MW/km2. Agricultural lands occupied with wind turbines can still be used as agricultural land, thus no area is excluded from that aspect. An unrestricted technical potential of around 500 TWh/y is calculated, whereby natural areas as designated by the Natura 2000 are deducted from the potential. Also, wind-speed areas below 4 m/s are excluded, because these cannot become economically competitive. An electricity production of 500 TWh/y (1800 PJ) would result in a share of 66% in the TFC. The Dutch government has the objective to install 6000 MW of onshore wind energy by 2020 (Energeia, 2012), which would occupy 400 km2 and 1.75% of the total agricultural land in the

Netherlands (CBS bodemgebruik, 2013). In 2011 the Netherlands increased the wind capacity with 68 MW up to 2328 MW, from which 247 MW is offshore wind energy (EWEA, 2012). Another 4000 MW is needed in the period 2012-2020, meaning about 440 MW every year. Compared to the achievements of neighbouring countries this is not impossible. 4.4 Biomass Biomass can both be used as an energy source for electricity and gas/heat. There is a wide variety of biomass sources and de Noord et al. (2004) report uses a definition developed by the European Commission: ‘Biomass’ shall mean the biodegradable fraction of products, waste and residues from agriculture (including vegetal and animal substances), forestry and related industries, as well as the biodegradable fraction of industrial and municipal waste. It is important however, that the biomass is used on the basis of cascading, in which the pharmaceutical industry is on top, followed by the food and feed industry and after the chemical industry the remainders can be used for energy purposes. Noord et al. predict a realistic potential of 87-146 PJ in 2020. An analysis performed by Wiskerke (2011) resulted in figure 4.5. The potential of 91 PJ accounts for all the available biomass, but for local energy purposes a selection needs to be made. Manure, grass and food residues are suited, which together is 63% of the total available biomass (57 PJ). Local biomass can supply no more than 2% of the TFC in the Netherlands. Biomass can supply 12% of the energy needs within the residential sector (482 PJ consumed).

Figure 4.5. The projected available biomass in the Netherlands for 2020 can account for 91 PJ in the TFC (Wiskerke, 2011).

4.5 Other renewable sources Energy from water could supply up to 10% of the total electricity demand (Rijkswaterstaat, 2009). Most of this potential, however, will be generated near the shores by using the salinity difference of salt and sweet water. Water turbines driven by the currents and based on tides can also be used. Although, these methods are centrally organised, it is possible to use water as a local energy source. No research has been undertaken towards the potential, but it is being used (ADEM, 2012). The theoretical potential for geothermal energy in the Netherlands is huge (90,000 PJ (Agency NL, 2012)), but the degree of decentralised production is questionable, since geothermal energy requires advanced techniques and can best be generated on large scale from an economical perspective. Nevertheless, small-scale geothermal energy can be applied, as shown by tomato farmer van den Bosch (2012) in Bleiswijk, the Netherlands, who utilised two wells of 6 MWth each to his greenhouses.

4.6 Summary The different renewable energy sources can significantly contribute to the energy supply. Table 4.2 summarises the potential production. Solar, wind and biomass can, if produced within the agricultural and residential sector, together become 5.7% of the TFC (2010) in the conservative calculations, from which BIPV contribute the most (47%). Assuming improvements within BIPV technology and no social and less spatial restrictions towards wind energy the common renewables can reach a share of 76%, which is 539% of the total consumed electricity in 2010 (107 TWh). Especially wind energy is more than significantly increased, due to a small increase in power density (from 10 MW/km2 to 15 MW/km2) and more importantly the exclusion of the 2-4% land occupation limit. Although the optimistic potential is most likely overdone, it clearly shows great potential for local energy purposes from an energy perspective. Furthermore, other renewable energy sources could considerably increase the future potential. Table 4.2. Potential production of the common renewables within the residential and agricultural sector. The TFC encompasses all sectors. A conservative1 and optimistic2 potential is shown.

Solar energy (BIPV)

Wind energy

(Onshore)

Biomass Total TFC (2010)

Potential production (TWh/y) 20.21/60.62 71/5002 15.8 431/5762 753

Potential production (PJ) 72.81/218.42 25.21/18002 57 1551/20752 2712

5. BALANCING DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN SPATIAL CONTEXT As shown in section 4 there is great potential for local energy initiatives to significantly contribute to the total energy consumption in the Netherlands. Stability of the Dutch electricity grid is of outmost importance. On average, the Dutch households have an electricity availability of about 99.996% (ECN, 2012). Around 25 minutes of power failure a year results in the Netherlands being one the most reliable countries worldwide in this aspect. Implementation of large scale renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar energy can threaten the reliability of the current system. Research towards smart or storage systems to cope with this development is almost countless. This chapter is aimed to not only demonstrate the consequences of various mixtures of high penetration renewable energy, but also to show differences in landscape opportunities. For instance, in densely populated areas there is less space for biomass or wind energy compared to rural areas. The potential for locally produced energy is dependent on the spatial context of a certain area. This chapter starts by introducing some examples related to the impact of decentralised energy production according to literature. The consequences in respect to the grid stability by simulating the supply and demand of electricity according to varying spatial settings, population density and consumption pattern are demonstrated subsequently. The energy supply is based on the local availability of wind, solar PV, biomass from agricultural lands and biomass from residential waste. Although waste is treated centrally, it is produced locally. The degree of self-sufficiency can be derived from the results as it can be demonstrated to which extent the stability of the grid is guaranteed. Finally, the spatial settings will be combined into a broader perspective of the three Northern provinces Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland. 5.1 Impact of decentralised energy production Literature provides a wide variety of studies related to the consequences of increased decentralised power shares. Highly centralised energy systems mostly rely on fossil fuels, thus decentralised renewable energy can help to tackle climate change and reduce fossil fuel dependence. But, how does this effect energy reliability and energy costs. This section gives a short overview of some practical consequences and examples related to decentralised renewable energy production. Kaundinya (2009) reviewed 102 articles and summarises a few reasons in favour of grid connected decentralised energy systems. Centralised energy system face huge transmission and distribution losses, mostly operate on fossil fuels and will need huge investments in transmission and distributions networks especially in remote areas. The benefits for decentralised systems strongly depend on the characteristics of a certain region. A densely populated area like the Netherlands has more benefits from a centralised energy system. Freris and Infield (2008) published a book about renewable energy in power systems. It is stated that modest amounts of variable renewables within a grid connected system poses no threat to the stability of the system. On the other hand, power failure of a 1000 MW centralised plant has great consequences to the stability. Decentralised wind is also widely spread, which flattens the peaks. At wind penetration levels of around 20% there would still be an extra reserve capacity required of 7%, although this is without accurate wind forecasting methods. Combining multiple renewable energy sources could significantly reduce the overall variability and hence increase the stability. Freris and Infield also discuss the consequences in respect to electricity prices. They indicate an additional cost on electricity prices of 3% given a 20% wind energy penetration. As a result of an increasing share of decentralised energy the power flows will become less predictable. Wolfe (2008) emphasises the need for active network management, flexible voltage control and sophisticated fault detection and safety procedures, because the current

system is unable to sufficiently cope with balancing issues. Great opportunities lie in innovative storage systems, since most renewable energy is highly intermittent. ‘Load management is a virtual storage, which can delay the timing of energy consumption in the same way that traditional storage delays the time of energy delivery’ as Wolfe point out. Other storage facilities can be heat/cold storage or the already mentioned microgeneration units. According to Allen et al. (2008) the centralised energy supply of the UK faces an approximate loss of 65% compared to the primary energy input. Heat together with transmission and distribution losses are the predominant causes of this low efficiency. Decentralised microgeneration technologies can therefore greatly increase the efficiency. The introduction of microgeneration units on a household level is discussed by van der Veen and de Vries (2009). The research context indicates that 30% of all the Dutch consumers will generate power on a household level. The solar PV scenario, in which all the microgeneration units consist of solar cells, has some major negative consequences to the stability of the grid. It is not possible to shift PV production and the production does not fit with the domestic or system pattern. Other non-renewable types of microgeneration would have positive consequences to the balancing market, because of the flexible production pattern and the presence of heat boilers and storage tanks. A few practical examples are given by Lumig (2012), who analysed 7 studies related to the impact of decentralised energy production on the low- and mid- voltage grid in the Netherlands in respect to the large scale implementation of electric cars, solar PV, micro CHP’s (or microgeneration) and heat pumps. The conclusions were comparable and implied:

- An average decentralised renewable growth rate of 1% per year has no serious consequences for the next 20 years.

- The limits of the mid voltage grid will be reached sooner compared to the low voltage grid.

- PV systems can be implemented on large scale, depending on the peak load of the system and the capacity of the low to mid voltage transformer.

- Micro CHPs that produce both electricity and heat of 1 kWe (can, depending on the type, produce between 1250 kWh (Stirling) and 3000 kWh (Fuel cell)) per household will have no effect on the grid stability. Larger systems could face comparable problems as with PV systems.

- Electric cars can be implemented limited, with an average penetration of around 40%. - Heat pumps have an average penetration level of around 25%. - The consequences of net losses have not been investigated in all 7 studies.

Klagge and Brocke (2012) focused on the opportunities for local development and concluded that due to the increased share of decentralised energy many jobs were created locally. The number of jobs within the renewable sector has more than doubled in Germany and exceeds 370,000. This is a strong economic advantage in favour of decentralised energy. Some technical examples are given to demonstrate the impact of decentralised energy and to provide possible solutions. The next sections focus on the supply and demand modelling based on spatial differences between varying spatial settings.

5.2 Demand model The demand model MEED (Model to Evaluate Electricity Demand) can be used to estimate the electricity demand by combined consumption patterns of various sectors. These sectors can have multiple functions, such as cleaning, heating, cooling, lightning and appliances. The consumption patterns for a characteristic working day, Saturday and Sunday in winter, spring/autumn and summer are selected and extrapolated giving a year pattern divided in a chronological data set of 8760 hours. The individual patterns of the separate functions are combined into a single yearly pattern for the specific functions and sectors. The electricity consumption for each sector is coupled with the specific demand pattern and MEED aggregates the individual patterns into a single demand pattern for a specific year. The chronological data set and the SMD (Simultaneous Maximum Demand, the annual peak demand) of the demand pattern functions as the input for the supply model. The demand model is described in detail by Benders (1996). 5.3 Supply model The dynamic supply model PowerPlan can be used to simulate an electric power system. The model starts in a reference year and any given simulation period can be followed. The model is dynamic because the complete route to reach the end state is defined. This research excludes the possibilities for dynamic modeling and focuses on a single year of demand and supply balancing. The electricity supply of the scenario is implemented into the model with the addition of an external energy source for balancing purposes if necessary. A variety of information can be gathered varying from electricity generation, environment, planning, fuel use and costs and more. Detailed information about PowerPlan is described by Benders (1996). For the purpose of this research a few parameters will be elaborated on. The renewable energy sources are supply driven (except from waste) and follow a certain pattern. The solar and wind pattern is fluctuating in the presence of the sun or the wind, while the biomass pattern is stable and can produce 90% of the capacity at any given moment. Solar PV is utilised first, since this energy source is generated with the least public resistance and can technically be realised more easily. Wind is generated secondly followed by agricultural biomass. In practice, there is no energy source which is always utilised first or second. Waste and electricity from the grid are flexible without a pattern and generate electricity when the other sources are unable to meet the demand. The SMD describes the peak demand in a certain year of a chosen scenario. This, as described in section 5.2, is part of the annual demand calculation. The SMD growth rate would determine the annual demand growth in a dynamic model. The Expected Unserved Electricity (EUE) and the Loss Of Load Probability (LOLP) are measures to determine the system reliability. The EUE describes the energy shortage expressed in MWhe or GWhe as a result of the LOLP incidents. The LOLP are the number of days in a 10 year period in which the supply cannot meet the demand and is a widely used measure to test the reliability of a grid. The model also calculates when the supply is higher than demand, due to non-switchable sources. It is the sum of the excess of the renewable energy sources solar PV, wind and agricultural biomass and is displayed in MWhe or GWhe.

5.4 Data justification The spatial settings are constructed based on the variation in population density (demand side), land availability (supply side) and differences in sectorial use of electricity (demand side). Demand side Statistical data obtained from Klimaatmonitor (2013) are used to separate the demand side between the sectors: Houses, Industry, Agriculture, Services, Government, Street Lightning and others. Since the energy demand within the industrial sector is very dependent on the industry type this sector is further divided into: Food and Beverages, Paper, Chemical, Metal production, construction and others. With the assistance of the Meed program a demand pattern is calculated and added to the PowerPlan input data sheet. Supply side The findings in chapter 4 are used to calculate the availability of biomass, solar power and wind energy from which the electricity supply can be derived. Added to the supply is the energy potential from residential waste. The load factors of the different energy sources provided by PowerPlan have been used to calculate the electricity supply. Biomass from agricultural lands A biogas supply chain model constructed by Bekkering (2010) is used to calculate the availability of biomass based on the available agricultural hectares. The biomass input is digested and converted into biogas. Some assumptions are made based on the model input data:

- 50% of the available agricultural land is used for Biomass, from which 25% is used for energy crops.

- The biomass composition chosen is derived from the land use percentages and yields per hectare, which adds up to 64% dairy cattle as manure and 36% corn as cosubstrate. Dairy cattle are common in the northern Netherlands, but other types of cattle are also possible to choose from in the model.

- An average farmer can produce around 26 ton of manure per hectare each year. The manure is collected inside the stables, but the data are calculated as ton per hectare to be able to derive the total manure produced from the land-use characteristics of the spatial settings.

- The cosubstrate yield is set at 45 ton fresh matter per hectare. The results from the biogas supply chain model are presented in m3 of biogas produced from a certain amount of biomass input. To convert this into electricity output, data obtained from Ecofys (2005) was used. A biogas yield of 530,000 m3 results in 932,500 kWh of electricity produced from a CHP installation. After deducting the farmers own use a total of 824,500 kWh can be delivered to the net. Thus, 824,500 divided by 530,000 results in 1.556 kWh/m3 biogas. To calculate the installed capacity a load factor of 89.3% is used. Biomass from residential waste The amount of residential waste produced per person per year in a certain area can be obtained from Klimaatmonitor (2013). The total amount of waste is simply calculated by multiplying this number with the number of residents in that area. NCDO (2012) describes that 39% of the residential waste is burned and 20% is used by the burning facility, while 80% is delivered to the net. Burning 6.3 billion kilo of waste results in 3500 TJ heat and 3700 GWh electricity, meaning 0.587 kWh/kilo burned waste. The load factor used is 90.3% Wind energy

As described in section 4.3 there is large variation in the potential of wind energy. It is chosen to model the wind energy supply based on the conservative calculations with the increased technological potential. Thus, 3% of the agricultural lands can be used for wind energy and 15 MW/km2 is used as the power density. The load factor used is 23.6%. Solar energy The amount of solar energy available is dependent on the built environment and the available ground level floor area of houses. The method to calculate the available area for solar energy is described in section 4.2, meaning that a factor 0.4 of the ground level floor area is used to calculate the suitable PV roof area. The PV capacity is set at 200 Wp/m2, with a load factor of 11.7%. The load factors are important to convert the capacity into the potential amount of electricity which can be generated. Solar PV for instance has 1024 yearly load hours, hereby strongly reducing the amount of electricity which can be generated from the capacity, while waste burning could potentially operate 7906 hours during a year and therefore more of the capacity can be utilised. 5.5 Spatial settings The city of Groningen, Hooghalen (small village in the province of Drenthe) and its surroundings, and a fictive agricultural area have been selected. An image of the city of Groningen and the Hooghalen area are included in appendix A2. The spatial settings greatly differ in consumption pattern and possibilities to generate renewable energy. The characteristics of the areas and the construction of the supply and demand will be described below. The land-use of the three different areas is summarised in table 5.1, the electricity supply is presented in table 5.2 and the electricity consumption is shown in table 5.3. City of Groningen The city of Groningen is the main capital of the province of Groningen. Information about the city is derived from Gemeente Groningen (2012) and klimaatmonitor (2013). The city has 193,250 inhabitants and is part of the top ten largest cities in the Netherlands. This densely populated area has 2478 inhabitants per km2 of land area. As a result the built environment has the largest contribution in the land-use (40%). The edges of the city are characterised by agricultural land occupying 33.6% of the city area. The rest of the land-use can be contributed to nature/recreation, infrastructure, water and other purposes which will not be used as potential areas from which energy can be generated. Gemeente Groningen (2012) provided information about the living spaces in the City. The 2010 data were used to calculate the suitable PV roof area. A distinction is made between high rise and low rise. The provided data suggest that there are 61% multiple layer houses. It is assumed that the average height is 4 floors with separated living spaces, thus the total high rise area is divided by 4. The outcome is added to the low rise area and by using the method described in section 4.2 an electricity potential of 344.7 GWh/y is calculated. The wind energy potential is dependent on the availability of agricultural land, which is 2815 ha for the City of Groningen. This results in an electricity potential of 26.2 GWh/y. An average citizen of the City of Groningen produces about 440 kg of waste a year and by using the calculation method described in section 5.2.3 the residential waste potential is 15.6 GWh/y. The energy potential from agricultural biomass is calculated to be 11.6 GWh/y. The total potential is insufficient to meet the demand. In total, 895 GWh of electricity was consumed in 2010. The largest sector is Services that contribute 40.5% of the total electricity consumption. The Residential sector has a 24.7% share, while there is hardly any agricultural activity compared to the total electricity consumption. Since Groningen is the main capital the government sector also consumes a large amount of electricity with a 18.3% share. The industrial sector is diverse, with food and beverages and construction making up the largest share. Other industry includes mineral

production, wood industry, electro-technical, machine-industry, cloth industry and others. No demand pattern was available for the other industrial groups, thus a general industry demand pattern was used as a substitute. Village of Hooghalen Hooghalen is a small village in the province of Drenthe occupying 1400 inhabitants. This includes the rural surroundings. Given the population density (50 inhabitants per km2) it is an average small village in the northern part of the Netherlands. The municipality of Midden-Drenthe (2013) that Hooghalen is part of, provided area specific data about land-use and the presence of buildings with purpose of use, from which the electricity potential can be calculated. The area is dominated by agriculture (61%) and nature/recreation (33%). Wind energy has therefore the largest potential with 16 GWh/y. Only a small percentage is occupied by the built environment (0.5%), which is the main difference compared to Groningen. An average citizen of Hooghalen produces 721 kg waste each year resulting in a residential waste potential of 0.2 GWh/y. The amount of waste produced is much larger compared to the city of Groningen, which can be largely explained by the difference in types of houses. Hooghalen has a negligible amount of high rise buildings, the average area of houses is around 120 m2, an average household occupation of 2.6 and 1400 residents leads to a total area of 64,415, from which the solar energy potential is calculated to be 5.29 GWh/y. Added to the mix is 7.1 GWh/y produced by the agricultural biomass. The electricity consumption of the Hooghalen area is unknown, but can be estimated by using the data of the municipality of Midden-Drenthe derived from klimaatmonitor (2013). The electricity consumption of Midden-Drenthe is divided by the 33581 inhabitants and multiplied with the 1400 inhabitants of the Hooghalen area resulting in a total consumption of 6.2 GWh/y. The residential sector (34%) and services (30%) are the largest consumers. The industry, agriculture and government sectors have shares around 10%. The mean sub-sector within industry is food and beverages (71%). Fictive Township The last spatial setting is the fictive Township, which is based on a tiny agricultural community. The area houses 250 inhabitants with a population density of 17 people per km2. Apart from some nature the area is mainly dominated by agriculture (86%). The area lacks any form of industry and most of the electricity is consumed by the residents and the agricultural sector. Nonetheless, the Township has some services and government facilities which consume electricity. The demand can easily be satisfied with the total electricity potential. Despite the fact that wind energy has the largest potential with 11.86 GWh/y the biomass availability from agriculture has the largest share in percentages compared to the other spatial settings with around 27% in the total electricity potential. The solar energy potential (1.13 GWh/y) is calculated by using the same method as for Hooghalen, with the exception that area of rural houses is slightly higher with 144 m2 (SCP, 2006).

Table 5.1. Land-use of the three different areas presented in hectares and percentages. The Groningen data were derived from Gemeente Groningen (2012) theme 1. The Hooghalen data were provided by the municipality of Midden-Drenthe.

Land-use Groningen Hooghalen Fictive Township

ha % ha % ha % Built environment 3308 39.5% 14.5 0.5% 2.5 0.2%

Agriculture 2815 33.6% 1715 61.0% 1288 86%

Nature/recreation 1025 12.2% 933 33.2% 150 10%

Infrastructure 486 5.8% 134 4.8% 15 1%

Water 569 6.8% 14.5 0.5% 30 2%

Other 166 2.0% 1.1 0.0% 15 1%

Total 8369 100% 2813.4 100% 1500 100%

Table 5.2.The calculated potential electricity supply in the selected areas.

Groningen Hooghalen Fictive Township GWh/y MW GWh/y MW GWh/y MW

Solar 345 337 5.29 11 1.13 1.95

Wind 26.2 13 16.0 7.72 11.9 5.79

Residential waste 15.6 2.0 0.2 0.02 0.03 0.004

Agriculture 11.6 1.5 7.1 0.90 5.26 0.68

Total 398 353 28.5 19.6 18.5 8.4

Table 5.3. Electricity consumption of 2010 divided by sector for the three separate spatial settings. The industrial sector is further divided into more specific groups. The Groningen and Hooghalen data were derived from klimaatmonitor (2013).

Sector Groningen Hooghalen Fictive Township

GWh % MWh % MWh % Residential 221.5 24.7% 2100 34.0% 375 30%

Industry 106.0 11.8% 677 11.0% - -

Food and beverages 16.0 15.1% 479 70.7% - -

Graphical 9.2 8.7% 10 1.5% - -

Chemical 2.4 2.3% - - - -

Metal production 8.4 8.0% 26 3.8% - -

Construction 18.6 17.6% 119 17.6% - -

Other 51.3 48.4% 43 6.1% - -

Agriculture 0.64 0.07% 632 10.2% 500 40%

Services 362.7 40.5% 1879 30.4% 188 15%

Government 163.4 18.3% 698 11.3% 125 10%

Street lightning 7.00 0.78% - - - -

Other 33.9 3.79% 193 3.1% 63 5%

Total 895 100% 6178 100% 1250 100%

5.6 Modelling results The data as described in section 5.5 were used to construct the supply and demand patterns and PowerPlan subsequently modelled the spatial settings. The generated amount of electricity per energy source, the energy source capacity as well as the operating hours compared to the load hours are presented. Also the SMD, EUE, LOLP and the excess renewable energy are shown for the situation with and without grid support. The ‘no’-grid perspective incorporates just 1 MWe or kWe as capacity, while the grid support perspective is adjusted to keep the LOLP between one and three days per 10 years. The results of each spatial setting will be described separately. The yearly demand patterns of the different spatial settings, with the renewable electricity supply added, can be found in appendix A4. City of Groningen Groningen is unable to meet the demand with the potential renewable energy sources present within the boundaries of the city. The results of the no-grid perspective are shown in table 5.4 and 5.5. The total amount of electricity that can be generated is 0.318 TWh/y and the demand is 0.895 TWh/y, thus the supply is insufficient. The operating percentage is the degree of which the load capacity of a specific energy source is fulfilled. Since the model is a closed system there will only be electricity generated if there is demand for it. The high operating percentages therefore indicate that the demand exceeds the supply. The LOLP indicates that there will be 3105 days of power shortages in 10 years. Grid support is needed to support the renewable supply at power shortages and table 5.6 shows that an extra flexible capacity of 195 MW, from which 0.585 TWhe is generated, is sufficient to maintain a reliable electricity system, which is around 36% of the total capacity. The grid support is responsible for 65% of generated electricity, while only 38% of the maximum load is fulfilled. The LOLP is 2.9 days in 10 years, which equals 0.02 GWhe of power shortages. This in turn indicates a system reliability of 99.998% ((1-0.02/896)*100%). The peak demand is 191 MWe and needs almost full back up from the grid, since there is only very little renewable energy generated during the peak moments in the winter, which can also be observed from the demand pattern figure A3. The excess renewable energy is 93 GWhe, which is 23% of what can be generated by the renewable sources at most (398 GWhe). Table 5.4. PowerPlan results no-grid perspective Groningen. Capacity Generated Operating %

MWe % TWhe %

Solar PV 337 95.1% 0.266 83.6% 77.2%

Wind 13 3.7% 0.022 6.9% 85.6%

Biogas 1.5 0.4% 0.010 3.1% 85.6%

Waste 2.0 0.6% 0.013 4.1% 85.4%

Grid 1.0 0.3% 0.007 2.2% 85.2%

Total 355 100% 0.318 100%

Table 5.5. PowerPlan results Groningen. No-grid versus grid support.

No-grid Grid support Units

SMD 191 191 MWe

EUE 510 0.02 GWhe

LOLP 3105 2.9 Days/10years

Excess renewable 93 93 GWhe

Table 5.6. PowerPlan results Groningen with Grid support.

Capacity Generated Operating %

MWe % TWhe %

Solar PV 337 61.4% 0.266 29.7% 77.2%

Wind 13 2.4% 0.022 2.5% 85.6%

Biogas 1.5 0.3% 0.010 1.1% 85.6%

Waste 2.0 0.4% 0.013 1.5% 85.4%

Grid 195 35.6% 0.585 65.3% 37.9%

Total 548.5 100% 0.896 100%

Village of Hooghalen As shown in section 5.5 the electricity supply potential (28.5 GWh) is more than sufficient to meet the demand (6.18 GWh). PowerPlan demonstrates that the demand can be fulfilled without grid support, while keeping the LOLP (2.1) below 3 days in 10 years as shown in table 5.7 and 5.8. The EUE is 0.2 MWhe and the system reliability becomes 99.997% ((1-0.2/6179)*100%). Wind energy has the highest capacity and 53% of the generated electricity is produced by wind energy. The non-fluctuating biogas source has a modest operating percentage of 6.8% and has a 7.5% share in the generated electricity, indicating that Solar PV and wind together are almost sufficient to completely supply Hooghalen with electricity. The overcapacity of 22.8 GWhe is 80% of the 28.5 GWhe potential supply. The excess renewable energy is quite substantive, but needed to maintain system reliability without grid support. The huge overcapacity of wind results in sufficient electricity production even at low wind speeds, and on windless moments after sunset biogas is able to fulfil the demand. Table 5.7. PowerPlan results Hooghalen.

SMD 1136 kWe

EUE 0.2 MWhe

LOLP 2.1 Days/10years

Excess renewable 22.8 GWhe

Table 5.8. PowerPlan results Hooghalen. Electricity output.

kWe % GWhe %

Solar PV 5196 37.5% 2.467 39.9% 46.4%

Wind 7719 55.8% 3.248 52.6% 20.3%

Biogas 905 6.5% 0.464 7.5% 6.8%

Waste 23 0.2% 0.0 0.0% -

Grid 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -

Total 13,844 100% 6.179 100%

Fictive Township As described in section 5.5 the electricity demand is 1.25 GWhe, while the potential capacity is 18.5 GWhe, thus the Fictive Township can easily be sulf-sufficient and most of the generated electricity can be re-delivered to the grid as table 5.9 and 5.10 demonstrate. The peak demand of 168 kWe can easily be fulfilled and there is no loss of load. Wind energy has the highest capacity and 67% of the electricity is generated by this energy source, while only 7% of the load is used. Solar PV is utilised first with a relatively descend operating percentage of 36%. Most of the electricity remains unused resulting in 17.3 GWh of excess renewable electricity, which is 93.5% of the total electricity production. Table 5.9. PowerPlan results Fictive Township. SMD 168 kWe

EUE 0 MWhe

LOLP 0 Days/10years

Excess renewable 17,298 MWhe

Table 5.10. PowerPlan results Fictive Township. Electricity output.

kWe % GWhe %

Solar PV 1108 14.7% 0.411 32.8% 36.2%

Wind 5738 76.2% 0.834 66.6% 7.0%

Biogas 679 9.0% 0.007 0.6% 0.1%

Waste 4 0.1% 0 0.0% -

Grid 1 0.0% 0 0.0% -

Total 7530 100% 1.252 100%

5.7 Broader perspective The results show large differences between the three spatial settings in respect to the local supply and demand alignment. It is clear that Groningen needs to import electricity in order to balance supply and demand, while the Township has a massive abundance of electricity and Hooghalen can become self-sufficient in the electricity usage, although the LOLP show that all the potential sources need to be fulfilled. Hooghalen shows that a large overcapacity of 80% is needed to supply an area with mainly fluctuating energy sources and without grid support on a yearly basis. The excess of renewable energy can be re-delivered to the net and be used in other regions or should be stored. To put the results into a broader perspective the spatial settings are combined and the extent to which the provinces of Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe can be self-sufficient is modelled. To make sure that the broader perspective is realistic the scenario is verified based on the total amount of residents, the land-use and the electricity consumption of the three provinces as a whole according to respectively CBS (2011), CBS statline (2013) and klimaatmonitor (2013). According to plaatsengids (2013) there are about 700 villages spread over the provinces and around 650 townships. There are 9 cities having more than 30,000 inhabitants and when added up this is comparable with 3 times the city of Groningen. The three provinces houses about 1.7 mln residents (CBS, 2011), from which 67% live in a city area. The broader perspective is not an exact representation of the original spatial settings. Some adjustments, within the number of residents, the land-use and the electricity supply and demand have been introduced to give a realistic picture of the electricity balancing of Groningen, Friesland

and Drenthe. Table 5.11 shows the land-use of the broader perspective, table 5.12 the electricity potential and table 5.13 the electricity demand. Table 5.11. Land-use of broader perspective divided by Cities, Villages and Townships and compared to CBS statline (2013).

Cities (ha)

Villages (ha)

Townships (ha)

Total (ha)

CBS statline (ha)

Built environment 9,924 42,000 1,625 53,549 56,815

Agricultural 8,445 350,000 286,000 644,445 640,867

Nature/recreation 3,075 105,000 6,500 114,575 110,830

Infrastructure 1,458 21,000 1,300 23,758 21,915

Water 1,707 287,000 16,250 304,957 308,487

Other 498 798 650 1,946

Total 25,107 805,798 312,325 1,143,230 1,138,914

Table 5.12. Electricity potential of broader perspective divided by Cities, Villages and Townships.

Cities

(GWh/y) Villages (GWh/y)

Townships (GWh/y)

Total (GWh/y)

Solar 1,034 4,235 1,295 5,416

Wind 79 3,256 2,661 5,995

Residential waste 47 148 4,3 199

Agriculture 35 1,445 1,181 2,661

Total 1,194 9,084 5,141 14,272

Table 5.13. Electricity consumption broader perspective divided by Cities, Villages and Townships compared to Klimaatmonitor (2013).

Cities

(GWh/y) Villages (GWh/y)

Townships (GWh/y)

Total (GWh/y)

Klimaatmonitor (GWh/y)

Residential 665 1,680 49 2,393 2,377

Industry 1,273 541 - 1,814 1,784

Agriculture 1.9 506 65 573 495

Services 1,088 1,503 24 2,616 2,679

Government 490 558 16 1,065 1,146

Other 123 154 8.1 285 285

Total 3,640 4,943 163 8,745 8,765

The broader perspective is modelled in PowerPlan by using the combined electricity potential as renewable energy supply and the combined electricity consumption as demand. The potential exceeds the demand, but the results depicted in table 5.14 show that grid support is needed to make the system reliable. The demand pattern can be found in figure A6. The no-grid perspective is unable to fully supply the demand and 7.5 TWhe is generated, while the demand is 8.7 TWhe, thus a shortage of around 14%. As indicated in table 5.15 solar PV and wind are the predominant sources of electricity and together add up to 85% of the generated electricity. The theoretical potential as described in section 4.4 demonstrated a larger potential for biomass, but Solar PV is utilized first, followed by wind energy and the remainder is supplied with biomass. The non-fluctuating biogas contributes for 14% in the no-grid perspective. In order to make the system reliable without grid support more biogas could be produced from agricultural biomass. There has to be a minimum capacity of 1800 MWe, while the actual potential is 340 MWe, to make the system reliable. There will also be more electricity generated than consumed. Biogas would generate 3.2 TWhe, which is 33% of the total electricity output. The shares of solar PV and wind would as a consequence be lowered. Since the additional biogas is unavailable grid support is needed. A reliable system can be achieved by an additional 1400 MWe grid capacity, which generates 1.2 TWhe as

shown in table 5.16. Most of the grid electricity is used during peak moment, which explains the operating percentage of only 11%. The system reliability becomes 99.997% ((1-0.3/8743)*100%. Table 5.14. PowerPlan results broader perspective. Grid support versus no-grid support. Grid support No-grid Units

SMD 1861 1861 MWe

EUE 0.3 956 GWhe

LOLP 2.5 1118 Days/10years

Excess renewable 6881 6881 GWhe

Table 5.15. PowerPlan results broader perspective. Electricity output without grid support.

MWe % TWhe %

Solar PV 5289 61.8% 3.219 42.7% 59.5%

Wind 2900 33.9% 3.174 42.1% 52.9%

Biogas 340 4.0% 1.089 14.4% 42.8%

Waste 25 0.3% 0.063 0.8% 31.8%

Grid 1 0.0% 0.002 0.0% 30.7%

Total 8555 100% 7.547 100%

Table 5.16. PowerPlan results broader perspective. Electricity output with grid support.

MWe % TWhe %

Solar PV 5289 53.1% 3.219 36.8% 59.5%

Wind 2900 29.1% 3.174 36.3% 52.9%

Biogas 340 3.4% 1.089 12.5% 42.8%

Waste 25 0.3% 0.063 0.7% 31.8%

Grid 1400 14.1% 1.198 13.7% 10.8%

Total 9954 100% 8.743 100%

Although the local renewable electricity supply is numerically sufficient to meet the demand,

the broader perspective indicates that the provinces of Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe are

unable to fully become independent of non-renewable energy sources. Figure 5.1 shows the

division between the sources needed to generate the demand, while maintaining a reliable

electricity system. About a 6-fold of extra biogas is needed to become grid independent,

which is a capacity increase of around 1500 MW. As a result the total amount of generated

electricity would increase to 9.6 TWhe. Nevertheless, this only covers the electricity supply,

which is around 13% of the TPES as described in section 4.1. Other possibilities could be the

addition of less conventional energy sources like geothermal energy or water power, which

could contribute significantly as indicated in chapter 4, improved storage facilities like heat

and cold storage, the use of microgeneration units in the presence of a storage tank or the use

of smart energy system to improve load management.

Figure 5.1. Electricity output broader perspective depicted in percentages.

6. CURRENT STATUS OF LOCAL ENERGY INITIATIVES The technical potential for local energy generation is significant and with the addition of improved load management systems and storage facilities the three Northern provinces can be, with maintaining grid stability, electricity self-sufficient. Local energy is generated by local energy initiatives and as described in the introduction there is growing interest in local energy purposes. This section aims to investigate the current status and development of these initiatives. The potential contribution to the transition from a societal perspective can be derived from the results. Chapter 7 will discuss the hurdles related to the initiatives and classification of the initiatives can give an indication where to focus on. The general motivation will be described in section 6.1. According to the database of the Natuur en Milieu Federaties (NMF), which is not publically available, there are a little over 400 local energy initiatives, from which the majority was founded in last few years. Schwenke (2012) classified the initiatives by distinguishing between wind co-operation, solar energy collectives and the new wave (hard to define broadly ranged initiatives). This research tends to more specifically define the goals of the initiatives and classify them accordingly, but also classifies the initiatives according to the renewable source the initiatives are focusing on as depicted in section 6.2. The database provided by the NMF was used to classify the energy source of the initiatives. The questionnaire results were used define the goals of the initiatives. The questionnaire also contained questions about the current status of the LREIs which will be elaborated in section 6.3. Finally, the ambition and future perspective will be discussed in section 6.4 based on the NMF database, the questionnaire and the interview responses. 6.1 Motivation Most LREIs are intrinsically motivated to contribute to the transition and increase the share of renewable energy. There is a shared belief that changes are needed within the society and the impact of climate change and unsustainable use of resources should be limited. Some even refer to the definition of sustainability and indicate being involved because the future generation should have the same opportunities as today’s generation and therefore want to contribute to a liveable planet. In general, little faith in government policy and energy regime is stated and some even believe there is too much focus on short term profit instead of long term gain. Also, there is a strong distrust towards the energy companies. Therefore, initiatives think they should stop waiting and take over control themselves. But, increasing sustainability is hard to achieve by themselves, thus initiatives are set up to realise the goals together and preferably without regime assistance. In fact, some express they want to push away the current energy regime and take over control on a local level. As one initiative stated: ‘Local renewable energy by and in favour of civilians’. Stimulation of the local economy is also a repeated motivation as is increasing the social cohesion of the community.

6.2 Classification The questionnaire that can be found in Appendix A1 defined 5 types of goals a LREI can pursue: Information provision, energy supplier, energy production, collective purchase and investment fund. Information provision can be about anything that has to do with energy and sustainability. Information can be given about how to save energy, produce energy yourself, improved insulation, and so forth. An energy supplier makes sure that their customers get the energy they asked for. No distinction is made on whether this is in cooperation with a larger energy company or not. Production of energy indicates (partially) owning any form of renewable energy production. Collective purchase of renewable energy sources can overlap with energy production, since this means that energy will be produced after the purchase. But energy initiatives which for instance produce biogas are involved with waste incineration or other forms of non-collective purchase are left out. There are also some initiatives involved in helping others by providing capital to make the investments. According to the replies given in the questionnaire, many initiatives associated themselves with multiple goals. The respondents together identified on average 2.3 goals. The classification is shown in figure 6.2. Out of 80 respondents 31 initiatives gave one answer from which energy production (10) and energy supplier (9) were most frequently chosen. A large group selected two options (19 respondents). Interestingly, there was a clear pattern in the combination of the goals. Information provision is most often combined with collective purchase, while energy supplier and energy production also overlap. Energy production also has the highest count rate, due to the fact that the majority of the initiatives are involved in purchasing solar panels, since this is a relatively easy approach to achieve the targets set. This also implies that the participants of the initiatives get proper information, so, the initiatives act according to both goals. Also, about 50% of the initiatives want to supply local customers with energy. This would mean replacing the current energy company. As indicated by multiple initiatives, they want to take control over the energy bill and believe that becoming an energy supplier can achieve this. There are only a few initiatives involved with an investment fund. This could suggest that most initiatives do not see the importance of turning it into a business model in which money needs to be earned. Out of 11 respondents that encircled the others option, 6 initiatives are actively involved in finding ways to save energy, for instance by applying improved insulation in households. Overall, it can be stated that there are mostly multiple goals upon which the LREIs found there organization.

Figure 6.2. Classification of LREI according to questionnaire. n=80. #=185.

The source of origin is shown in figure 6.3. From the 412 initiatives the NMF database provided, there were 293 initiatives appointed with an energy source they focused on. Multiple sources were possible, hence the total of 406 checkmarks. From the 293 initiatives there are 224 initiatives that focus on a single energy source. There is just one initiative which identified to focus on all sources of renewable energy. When an initiative is involved in biomass, it is most commonly in combination with either wind or solar energy. A combination between biomass and solar energy is observed quite often (19 times). Farmers investing in for instance bio-digesters have the space and abilities to also purchase solar panels. The same accounts for wind energy, although the investments are much higher. The initiatives are dominated by solar energy (48%) as solar energy is affordable for most consumers. relatively easy to implement and it is an upcoming market in which prizes are dropping rapidly. Moreover the price of PV panels has reached grid parity for consumers in the Netherlands last year, meaning that the levelled costs are the same as the consumers’ electricity price. The levelled costs are the total costs of a PV system (including capital costs) divided by the energy produced during its lifetime (EPIA. 2013). The number of solar energy initiatives exploded the last years, since 75% was founded after 2010. There are some older initiatives (before 2000) involved in solar energy, but this is without an exception in combination with other sources, predominantly wind and in one case biomass. Wind energy more or less belongs to the old generation of renewable energy, since 57% was founded between 1986 and 1995. About 21% is involved in wind energy and remains popular amongst LREIs, although there is also strong opposition against wind energy, because of the so called NIMBY effect and they believe that wind energy is not and will never become profitable without subsidies. Heat is rather new source of renewable energy that the LREIs are starting to get more involved in. About 90% of all heat initiatives have been founded after 2000. Furthermore, entrepreneurs are relatively more involved in heat projects compared to the other energy sources. Large investment costs are mostly involved in such projects, which is therefore not managed by volunteers. There is one initiative occupied with natural gas. This is a greenhouse company in the province of Zuid-Holland. They have indicated themselves to be a LREI, but it is doubtful whether this is fair, given the fact that their source of energy is natural gas. Nevertheless, the company is involved in an innovation project to increase energy efficiency and reduce consumption.

Figure 6.3. Origin of Energy sources the LREIs focus on. n=293. #=406

A large group of initiatives does not focus on a specific energy source and is therefore not part of the figure. An energy supplier for instance arranges that the customers get the energy they ask for and is not necessarily focusing on a specific energy source. There is also a group which did not yet communicate the source of energy with the NMF. 6.3 Current status As mentioned in the introduction of this chapter there currently are nationally over 400 local energy initiatives. The previous paragraph discussed the goals upon which these LREIs can be classified. This paragraph depicts the growth of the LREIs the last decades. Also, it shows the degree of volunteers, the legal basis and whether the initiators are public or government related. 6.3.1 Founding years LREI’s To be able to give an indication of the current transition stage the development of the LREIs during the last decades needs to be outlined. The questionnaire provided representative information. Figure 6.4 shows the founding years according to the respondents. The figure clearly shows a huge increase starting in 2010 with by far the most being founded in 2012. This is caused by the massive increase of solar energy initiatives as indicated in the previous section. There is one initiative which has not yet been founded, but has the ambition to officially start in 2015. During the late 80s and begin 90s wind energy was very popular in the Netherland and therefore all the 6 respondents which founded their initiatives during those days are involved in wind energy, hereby (partially) owning a windmill or wind farm. Moreover, there has not been any development between 1995 and 2005. It could be possible that these initiatives no longer exist, but more likely is that there was no interest among the public to start a LREI. As Rotmans (2012) states this has to do with the economic prosperity of that period. After 2005 the Netherlands faced a long period of instability and economic stagnation. This, as Rotmans suggests, is the mean reason for the public to take action. Other indicators for change will be discussed in chapter 7. Thus, figure 6.4 is a possible indication that the energy transition is close to the take-off stage (see chapter 3.1).

Figure 6.4. Founding years of local energy initiatives according to questionnaire, which closed in

april. 2013. n=75.

6.3.2 Degree of volunteers The degree of volunteers could give an indication about how devoted they are when it comes to making the energy system more renewable. The majority (55%) is completely based on volunteers as shown in figure 6.5. Another 17% sometimes get small compensations for their efforts. Some respondents indicated to sometimes hire an expert. Within eight initiatives there are no volunteers and the initiative is more or less a local company or government initiative.

Figure 6.5. Share of volunteers according to questionnaire. n=58.

6.3.3 Legal basis The ambition to remain small or grow as a LREI can be derived from the legal basis. A co-operation wants to attract members and in most cases has the ambition to grow. A private company approaches the concept as being business and money is in most cases the main drive. A foundation has no interest in making profit and mostly wants to keep acting as locally as possible, but does want to attract members. A work-group is a small group of people working on a specific issue. As shown in figure 6.6 most LREIs are co-operations, meaning that the motivation to grow and have a more significant impact is predominant. It needs to be noted however, that the group of respondents had publically available contact data, thus there is a good change that the LREIs which were not contacted have a different legal basis. As a co-operation it is important to become publically known. A foundation or work-group has other ambitions. The NMF database contains an extensive database of LREIs from which the majority prefers to remain publically unknown. Furthermore, a small group started or became a private company. Four out of five want to be a private energy company to keep energy clean and affordable. The other is a LREI founded in 1990 which currently owns a significant share in a wind-farm and makes an annual profit of 50,000 euro, which is invested in the local community. Because of the cash flow the LREI became a private company. The figure clearly shows that there is noteworthy willingness to increase the impact of local energy, since most LREIs are co-operations.

Figure 6.6 Legal basis of LREI as indicated by questionnaire respondents. n=74.

6.3.4 Initiators of LREI It is expected that the LREIs are initiated by civilians as the bottom-up principle would suggest. The questionnaire respondents were asked to indicate whether their LREI is initiated by the public (civilians), the municipality, the province or others. Figure 6.7 clearly shows that the vast majority is initiated by the public themselves. Two out of three LREIs initiated by the municipality are to facilitate and educate in order to make the municipality

become energy neutral. The lower government wants to cooperate with the local community to reach renewable targets. From the remaining there were four LREIs initiated by a cooperation between civilians, companies and government organisations. Another four indicated being a government initiative, but did not belong to the municipality or province. Others indicated the initiative was a business decision.

Figure 6.7. Initiators of LREI’s according to questionnaire. n=60.

6.3.5 Size of the initiatives The results of the questionnaire and the NMF database were used to give an indication about the size of the LREIs based on the amount of members and customers. A large group of the organisations have no members or customers, since this is not part of their goals. A cooperation however, is based on members and if the initiative is an energy supplier they need to have customers. As indicated in section 6.2 about 50% of the respondents to the publically available initiatives have the goal to supply energy. Also, a few solar collectives indicated having customers, hence they supplied them with solar panels. Currently, 25 initiatives indicated having customers. Figure 6.8 shows the division in amount of customers. The majority started their initiative between 2010 and 2012 and are therefore still trying to build up a significant body of customers. The majority have very few customers, indicating the difficulty of attracting them. Only seven have more than 500 customers, from which two are collective solar purchase initiatives and two are wind energy co-operations. The other three are energy suppliers, from which only two have more than 1000 customers. The most successful cooperation in respect to customer size is Texel Energy with 4000 customers, an island in the north-west of the Netherlands. The initiative started in 2007 and supplies both electricity and gas. They do not only buy and sell renewable energy, but also produce solar power and biomass in cooperation with the local community and an agricultural company. Furthermore, they buy energy from a local wind farm, planned to produce wind energy themselves and they closely follow the developments in respect to geothermal energy and tidal power.

Figure 6.8. The amount of customers within LREIs according to the questionnaire and NMF database.

6.4 Ambition and future perspective Although the customer size of the various initiatives is, with some exceptions, rather small there is no lack of ambition, as shown in figure 6.9. The 22 initiatives that expressed a customer target clearly want to have a significant impact. For instance, Deventer Energy has the ambition to supply 50% of Deventer with energy. This roughly equals 44,000 inhabitants. The municipality of Deventer has announced a 100% energy neutral target in 2030, thus a completely renewable energy system. This needs to be achieved with the cooperation of companies, organisations and civilians. A partner in this project is the LREI of Deventer Energy. They operate independently of the local government, but get support from them as well as from other entrepreneurs. There motto is ‘Together sustainable’. The target is ambitious, but they hope to achieve this because of the cooperation between different layers of the society.

Figure 6.9. The customer ambition targets as indicated by the LREIs according to the NMF database. During the interviews the experts were asked about the impact of local energy within the energy transition. Without exception they agreed on an increasing share of local energy. Hoedemaker-Bos stated: ‘If the bottom-up movement is large enough, the policy (which is determinative) will bend in favour of renewable energy. Currently, the development is accelerating and villages are ‘infecting’ and stimulating each other to get more involved with sustainability’. Mallon also thinks that positive experiences between neighbours can have a strong positive impact. Zwang also sees the number of initiatives growing rapidly. He thinks there will be much more local production and consumption, if the Dutch energy policy is

cooperating. ‘Local companies and civilians want to develop renewable energy production and achieve this with the cooperation of the community’. Zuidema compares the Netherlands with Germany and Great-Britain, which have about 10% of their energy supply generated locally. He expects about the same percentage in the Netherlands, but (because of spatial limitations) no more than that. ‘It will be part of the system, with a modest, but not to be negligible contribution’. Mr and Mrs Ton have more confidence and expect a local energy percentage of about 20-25% at the end of the transition, with solar energy being the main driver. Hoedemaker-Bos stated: ‘Most initiatives will remain small and focus on energy savings and collective purchase of renewable energy. The ones becoming an energy supplier will all have problems with attracting customers. Energy suppliers from the provinces of Groningen (Grunneger Power), Friesland (Fryske Enerzjy Koöperaasje) and Drenthe (Drentse Kei) are currently setting up a large northern energy company. This is an example of combining forces and making sure enough customers can be attracted to the initiative. But, smaller local initiatives must be able to join the cooperation’. Mallon believes that companies offering do it yourself PV panels can really boost the development of solar energy, since it would make the purchase more accessible. Mrs and Mr Ton from the smaller energy supplier ECNoordseVeld are involved in the establishment of the northern energy company and stated: ‘We want to keep the benefits within our own region’. They believe that combining forces in such an initiative can really boost local energy and contribute to a more sustainable future. Also, as a former professor in journalism Mr Ton compares the renewable movement from the 60s and 70s, which especially draw a lot of attention after the oil crisis in 1973. It was important to become more sustainable and to be more caring about the natural environment. It was a protest movement with a negative approach towards policy. Today, the movement is more positive and constructive. A more representative part of the society is now involved, varying from the idealist to the businessmen. Also, it has become more widely accepted that fossil energy will be depleted at some point and renewable energy is cheaper nowadays. The LREIs are divers in their goals they pursue and although most initiatives are founding a co-operation other legal constructions are also significant. Most of the recently founded initiatives focus on solar PV, since this energy source has the least constraints and therefore solar PV has the largest societal potential. Local energy as a whole currently has a negligible share in the energy supply, but with the rapidly growing number of initiatives and the positive public attitude, towards especially solar PV, local energy is able to fulfil a significant part of the technical potential.

7. HURDLES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF LOCAL RENEWABLE

ENERGY INITIATIVES

Kern and Smith recognize some transition dilemmas. First, it is important to set long-term transitions goals, but short term successes are needed to prove the concept and incorporate more participants. Thus, a balance between the final goal and quick results is needed. Second, a level playing field is needed for different technologies to ensure fair changes of newcomers. The so called lock-in effect (reaching a status quo in the transition) is prevented. A level playing field can be created when the government has an open mind set towards every technology, which generates uncertainty for investors, which could be considered as a lack of commitment and continuity. Third, the energy regime is rigid and also dominant and can therefore not be neglected by frontrunners or newcomers. Therefore, the energy regime should be included in the transition process. Fourth, innovations at the niche level are strongly promoted by the transition theory, but are extremely hard to realise without the assistant of the government at the macro level. As presented in chapter 6 the local initiatives are diverse in their goals and organisational formats, are rapidly growing and have no lack of ambition. Tailor made solutions to increase the societal potential are close to impossible. The NMG and FMF (2012) developed a road map to make an initiative a success based different goals of the LREIs. This section is aimed to identify general hurdles, and opportunities and solutions to increase the potential can be suggested. The hurdles are investigated from a multilevel perspective related to LREIs based on the input from LREIs, interviewed experts and literature. International examples demonstrate some success cases and describe which aspects are related to the success. The opportunities and solutions to overcome the hurdles show possible measures which can increase the societal potential of the initiatives and which can increase the transition pace. Also, an indication is given about the consequences of the measures and to which extent the technical potential can be fulfilled. This section is concluded by summarising some transition indicators. 7.1 Hurdles of local renewable energy initiatives The hurdles provided by the LREIs, interviewed experts and literature are subdivided based on the multilevel perspective and will function as input pointers to discuss the opportunities and solutions in section 7.3. 7.1.1 According to local renewable energy initiatives The local energy initiatives participating in the questionnaire were asked to identify the three main hurdles they faced during funding the initiative and during the operation of the initiative. No differences were observed between the problems at start or during the operation of a local initiative. After compiling the questionnaire results the hurdles can be categorised according to figure 7.1. Most difficulties were observed on the financial level. Acquiring enough capital to start the initiative proved to be the hardest challenge, especially when founding an energy cooperation. In most cases, the volunteers need to put in significant amounts of money or seek for collaboration with other parties, like entrepreneurs or the local government, which is not always desirable. Financial means can also be created by attracting more members or volunteers to the initiative, but the second largest hurdle is to get members or volunteers involved in the initiative. Mostly, people express a lack of interest or are not willing to substitute their energy supplier. As stated in section 6.4, the ambition amongst the initiatives is there, but the majority of the society is not yet convinced to alter their energy related choices. Most people are in favour of a more sustainable and renewable based society, but have no interest to put effort into it and most certainly not if money is involved.

The lack of government support is seen as a threat by a number of initiatives. They are not supported and sometimes feel obstructed by the local government, although in a number of cases the local government is very cooperative and strongly willing to increase the regional renewable share. Law and regulations is closely related to government support, however the policy is decided by the national or in some cases by international (European Union) government. An often mentioned barrier is the rules which apply to ‘salderen’. Energy produced for own consumption and without grid interference is exempted from energy taxes, value added tax and costs related to the use of the grid. This makes solar PV competitive with fossil energy. Collectively produced local energy, in which the electricity needs to travel along the grid before it can be consumed by the members of the collective, is within in the current legislation not allowed to use the concept of salderen. As a result, people investing in large scale solar PV only get the gross market price, which is about one third of the consumers’ tariff. This makes the business case unprofitable. The legal aspects which initiatives have to deal with are for most people beyond their understanding. At some point initiatives have to choose a legal form, but the rules of the different options are complex. Organisations that choose for a more business oriented approach will need to have a notary document, which describes amongst others the initiatives objectives, legal responsibilities of the board and members, yearly allowances, decision making process, board supervision and profit settlement. Law and regulations also become very complicated when an initiative is planning to become an energy supplier. The current system is based on the electricity law from 1998, which do not incorporate the possibilities for local producers. It is unclear to most initiatives under what conditions power can be provided. In most cases initiatives need to operate under the wing of a larger energy supplier, which is in the possession of a so called supply permit. This reduces the feeling of being independent. Many people are very motivated in their contribution to a more sustainable society, but often lack the knowledge to act upon it. This applies to the law and regulations, financial knowledge, but also about some basic understandings about energy, like the difference between energy and electricity. Running an initiative is time consuming and some initiatives experience a lack of time, which could be a reason why most initiatives are run by elderly people, which often are already retired. One person indicated: ‘I am running a fulltime job, without getting paid for it’. The last hurdle which initiatives encounter is public resistance. An initiative involved in wind energy claims an abuse of legal procedures by NIMBY civilians. Also, the regime is blamed by informing the public with incorrect media information. Other negative opinions about the energy regime are not mentioned.

Figure 7.1. The hurdles as identified by the questionnaire of the local initiative.

Transition hurdles according to the LREIs can be summarized as follows: Macro level

- Law and regulations: salderen, complicated rules, regulations based on centralised energy system

Meso level

- Lack of governmental support - Energy regime: need for fossil energy

Micro level

- Knowledge: constructing a business case, basic energy understanding, financial constructions

- Public resistance: NIMBY effect - Lack of time - Finances: founding capital - Attracting members or volunteers: no financial incentive, not interested

7.1.2 According to interviewed experts The experts were asked to indicate what the consequences could be if the energy system would become increasingly decentralised and what hurdles the current system faces. Also, reasons why the Netherlands has difficulties in up-scaling the shares of renewables was part of the discussions and the main conclusions will be shortly summarised. Possible solutions to the hurdles will be described in section 7.3. The energy market (especially the TSO and DSO) is conservative, according to de Jonge, who is a legal expert. As a consequence safety and grid reliability are more important than increasing the renewable share. This also makes them less innovative. The electricity law of 1998 was aimed to improve the market mechanisms. Specific technical possibilities, for instance the fact that solar PV and wind are intermittent sources are not part of this law. The law is aimed at a centralised production system. A huge technical problem of decentralised energy is the increasing inertia of the grid, due to the fact that an increasing amount of local grids all needs to be connected to the central grid. This could result in an increasing power quality loss. It is important to the keep the network loaded to prevent misbalances. The main obstacle, according to de Jonge, is the lack of government leadership. It is up to the market, but the market lacks a level playing field, because of the historical power balances. Another issue is the desire of the European government to create a market in which energy can travel between nations without limitations, however energy (in particular electricity) can best be used locally to increase efficiency. Zuidema agrees that it is hard to counter the market, but recognises that if an initiative is really willing to make a stand and has the financial means to do so, they do not need external parties, such as the government, to realise their goals. For example, a farmer in the possession of a digestion facility is not allowed to spread out manure or co-substrates on their own lands which comes from other properties. If, the farmer decides to found a cooperation with other farmers the total available land area increases. Nevertheless, the government is able to change the level playing field, which it only partly does, thus it can be stated that the government is partly responsible for hampering of the transition. Mallon sees a major hurdle in the lack of a well-organised system. A clear structure of knowledge, confidence and skills is lacking. Companies willing to invest in local energy purposes are often hampered by rules. For example, if a farmer wants to supply the nearby houses with solar energy generated at the ranch he is obliged to pay for the usage of the grid

and is unable to use the concept of salderen. This makes it unprofitable for the farmer to invest. Ton and Ton also recognise negative media information, for example about fire risks of solar panels. There is a difference between policies from lower and higher level governments. Municipalities are more willing to invest in local energy initiatives, while the provinces and the national government are more focused on centralised energy production. Ton and Ton also observe problems with attracting members to their initiative, but also knowledge and especially legal knowledge. Hoedemakers-Bos believes the major pitfall of local energy initiatives in to attract members or volunteers, which is also supported by Zwang who even states that initiatives underestimate the difficulties of attracting members. Also, Zwang observes a shift by the energy regime in which there is an increasing focus on centralised production. Cooperating with initiatives is not part of their strategy and will only happen when they are forced to do so or when the advantages are significant. Local initiatives on the other hand need the assistance of energy companies to be able to deliver energy or to develop projects. The Netherlands are falling behind due to a variety of reasons. A summary about the experts’ opinions is given below.

- The energy density is large, which makes it hard to reach certain percentages of renewable energy. Countries as Belgium and Great-Britain have the same difficulties.

- There are no easy natural resources, like for instance water power in most Scandinavian countries.

- There is less urgency to change, since the Netherlands has large gas reserves (also shale gas) and can learn from other countries, like Germany, which face load balancing problems.

- There is no financial incentive. On the contrary, the Dutch public treasury is making huge profits from natural gas. This makes investing in renewable energy even more expensive.

- Large energy companies have an important influence of the policy. - Changing to a more renewable society is an issue of the last decade and during this

period the Dutch government was mainly right winged and decided on other priorities. For instance, Germany and Denmark has had left/middle-wing governments and strongly increased their renewable shares.

- There is a lack of long term government vision. The regular change of government structure in the last decade makes the policy inconsistent and therefore unreliable.

Transition hurdles according to the experts can be summarized as follows: Macro level

- Law and regulations: regulations based on centralised energy system - Government leadership: market based strategy, no level playing field - System: energy density of the Netherlands, availability of energy resources, no

financial incentive, type of government structure, no long term vision Meso level

- Energy regime: conservative, safety and grid reliability, focus on centralised production, media attention, influence on policy

- Technical: grid inertia Micro level

- Lack of organised system: knowledge, confidence, skills - Knowledge: legal - Attracting members or volunteers

7.1.3 According to literature The LREIs and expert interviews provided a solid number of transition hurdles. Nevertheless, literature also provides hurdles related to local energy. Hurdles identified by Wüstenhagen et al. (2007), Hisschemoller (2012), Geurts and Rathmann (2009), Rotmans (2012), van Soest (2011), Haayer (2011) and NMF Groningen and Drenthe (2012) are summarized and divided by using the multilevel perspective. Some hurdles overlap with the already identified ones, but this indicates the importance of the specific hurdles. Macro level Law and regulations:

- The current permit procedures, especially for wind energy are time consuming processes which can take 5 to 10 years.

- Large scale solar PV is not possible since the initiative is obligated to pay energy taxes

and therefore the business case becomes unprofitable. As explained earlier, the

concept of salderen cannot be applied.

Energy sources:

- Fossil energy is in most cases cheaper than renewable energy, due to more matured technological development and the independency of the primary energy source. Wind and solar PV are intermittent sources and therefore dependent on the availability of wind and sunshine, while fossil energy can produce at full load. On the other hand, renewable energy has minimal external costs, while fossil energy strongly contributes to climate change. The costs of dealing with and minimalizing climate change are currently not part of the retail costs. Comparing cost prices is rather difficult, since multiple subsidies, fiscal advantages and tax benefits influences the costs.

Technical:

- Decentralized energy generation creates a change in socio-economical landscapes and requires space, which is a limited resource in the Netherlands. The additional stress on land through renewable energy diffusion can lead to trade-offs between economic, environmental and social interests (Wüstenhagen et al., 2007).

Meso level Energy regime:

- Van Soest states that the transition is deliberately opposed by raising doubt about who is responsible for climate change.

- Rotmans (2012) claims that regime players are deliberately slowing down the transition as the traditional energy regime wants to maximally benefit from the investments made in the fossil energy based society. This statement is supported by the fact that the energy transition taskforce, founded by the government in 2004, consisted of around 65% of energy regime actors. Since 2004, the Netherlands was unable to significantly increase the renewable energy shares. Nevertheless, the energy regime is becoming more dynamic with newcomers and also the traditional players are increasingly supporting renewable initiatives.

- The current energy system is aimed at large scale one-direction centralised energy

production. Large shares of locally produced energy strongly influence the technical

function and management of the physical energy system.

Technical: The impact of decentralised energy production is described in section 5.1. Locally generated renewable energy decreased the grid reliability.

Micro level Public resistance:

- Without societal support and opposing actors NIMBY issues will get the upper hand. According to NMF Groningen and Drenthe (2012) 25% believes there is no climate problem, which is a large part of the society that can take an opposing stand. And, raising doubt can function as an inhibitor in the transition, since people become less eager to act and the system reaches a status quo.

- The NMF Groningen and Drenthe study also revealed that 53% of the survey respondents will never agree with the implementation of wind mills in the near surroundings.

- A lack of or indecent communication can cause members or volunteers to drop out. Also, attracting new people or creating societal support requires decent communication.

Finances:

- Convincing investors to participate in an initiative requires a reliable business plan.

For example, investors at every level need to know how and at which time scale

revenues are generated, if the assumptions are reliable and verifiable, how much

capital is needed, what the project risks are and if the partners are reliable and

motivated.

- The investment costs of an initiative have a large share in the total costs and involve

long term investments. Initiatives have difficulties attracting start-up capital.

Professionalism:

- When initiatives have ambitions to grow a more professional approach is needed.

Volunteers need to become employees and knowledge and skills are required.

- Financial, legal, technical and energy related knowledge, but also management skills

are often insufficient.

7.2 International examples Numerous examples of local energy initiatives can be found in literature, which successfully managed to overcome hurdles. Only a few of them are summarized below. Using the locally available resources can be a necessity as in the United States or a choice as in most cases in Western Europe. The main difference between the United States and most countries in Western Europe is the population density and thus almost no areas are lacking availability to the electricity supply. Nevertheless, the opportunities of national circumstances are recognized more often. Denmark actually proved to be very successful in their energy policy management. Germany’s policy promotes local initiatives and bioenergiedorf Jühnde is just one of many examples in Germany in which individuals or local initiatives are actively increasing the share of renewables. The village of Güssing was among the first to completely generate the energy supply with renewables. Keeping in mind that the village has about 27,000 inhabitants, this is quite an achievement. Bizen city in Japan proved the theoretical multilevel perspective in practice. All the initiatives, except from the Touchstone Energy Cooperatives, were supported by the government, indicating their important role in the transition. The aspects leading to the transition will be used to describe the opportunities in section 7.3. 7.2.1 Samso, Denmark Samsø is a Danish island situated in the Kattegat Sea near Aarhus. The island area is 112 km2 and has around 4000 inhabitants scattered over about 20 villages. The largest town is Tranebjerg with 829 inhabitants in 2010. Samsø has been the subject for multiple studies involving the successful implementation of renewables, locally. Marano (2010), Jakobsen

(2008), Jantzen (2008), Pattis (2010) and Leteff (2012) researched the achievements of Samsø. Energy policy in Denmark The oil crisis starting at the end of 1973 raised questions about the reliability of an oil based energy system. Like many countries Denmark started to think of ways to reduce their oil dependency. Denmark had no natural resources, in contrast to many neighbouring countries. The Netherlands found gas, Scandinavian countries could use hydro power, and Germany was blessed with coal. The government planned to implement nuclear energy, while at the same time a group of energy experts from Danish universities developed an alternative energy program based on renewable energy, and especially wind power. The first wind mills were implemented at the end of the 1970s. The No Nuke movement finally convinced the government that nuclear energy should not become part of the energy system. The Limit to Growth written in 1972 made the public aware of the consequences of unsustainable human behaviour. Therefore, the Danish energy policy was since 1990 aimed to reduce greenhouse gasses. The primary focus was on wind power and biofuels. The plans included 1500 MW of wind energy by 2005, which was by far exceeded in 2003 with 3100 MW, resulting in 19% of the total electricity generated. According to Marano the success of the wind energy program can be explained by different factors: Long term government support, national tests and certifications of wind turbines, feed-in tariffs and regulations, investments subsidies, energy planning and targets, local ownership of wind turbines and careful selection of sites. The most important indicator is the stability of the government and its renewable energy supporting program. From 1993-2001 there was no change in political power. In 2001 the people voted for a shift in the parliament. Hence, the energy program was changed and during 2003-2008 the total amount of wind energy did not increase. The emphasized was put on market-based solutions and cost effective measures. The vision of the energy policy in 2009 was complete fossil fuel independence in 2050. Currently (2011), Denmark has 23.4% renewable energy in their total energy supply, from which solid biofuels have the largest share (61%) (IEA, 2012). The island The ‘old’ government developed an energy plan containing 100 initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions in 1996. Part of this plan was a competition amongst 5 islands to become energy self-sufficient. Within 10 years the island needed to become completely fossil-fuel independent. Samsø won the contest and achieved their goals already in 2003. At the start of the contest Samsø imported most of their electricity from the mainland and only 5 percent was generated with the few wind turbines present on the island. The plan was to build 11 1MW wind turbines to be able to level out the average yearly consumption of 29,000 MWh. In the beginning there was strong opposition against the landscape polluting wind turbines and the locations were adopted several times. The Samsø energy academy was founded in 1998 to organise campaigns and inform citizens about the project. The citizens were involved in the decision making directly from the start and it was explained to them what the advantages and disadvantages of a renewable based economy would be. The Danish cooperative culture helped to make the farmers obtain shares in the wind turbine ownership scheme. Every citizen was given the chance to invest in the Samsø wind energy association. The local farmers owned 9 windmills, while the other 2 were owned by 450 shareholders. Eventually most citizens agreed with the outcomes of the project and the NIMBY syndrome was overcome. The main reason for this is believed to be the opportunity to be involved in the decision making. Another important external factor is the shutting down of a local slaughterhouse which had a major impact on the local economy and forced people to seek for other opportunities. Other energy sources implemented were solar boilers and a local wood chip burning facility. As one of the main promoters (Søren Hermansen) stated: ‘A crisis makes people much more open to new ideas’. The contest offered work and improved quality of life.

In the end the main success factors can be described as: a bottom-up development, an open dialogue between citizens, farmers, politicians, scientist and others, and a stable political regime. But, also the there was a strong need for economic development in the region. The bottom-up development is characterized by the ownership scheme. The Danish government has invested a lot of money in research and development and has become the frontrunner in wind energy research. Transition aspects are:

- Macro level: national policy, energy independency, societal pressure - Meso level: research institution, - Micro level: local participation, bottom-up development, communication, economic

development, financing scheme 7.2.4 Bioenergiedorf Jühnde, Germany German renewable energy agenda Geurts and Rathmann (2009) and Bosman (2012) reported about the German policy related to decentralised energy and compared this with the Netherlands. In the early 90s Germany started to carefully stimulate the production of renewable energy. The government provided a long term investment guarantee of 20 years, which resulted in solid business cases. Farmers in the Northern part of Germany started to invest in wind energy. Farmers, local initiatives and individuals are responsible for 65% of the current renewable installed capacity in Germany, while the traditional energy companies where only sparsely involved in renewable energy with a 7% share. The so called ‘Energiewende’ was characterised by chaos and a public battle between the energy regime and the society from which the majority was in favour of decentralised energy. The energy regime tried to reverse the policy, but the public opinion was in disfavour of the traditional coal and nuclear energy regime and the German policy continued supporting renewable energy. Germany has stable and predictable investment climate, due to continuity in subsidy schemes, spatial planning and authorization procedures. The subsidy scheme differentiates between the potential outcome of the energy source. For instance, more subsidy is given to wind energy business cases at more suitable locations. A feed-in tariff is in place to stimulate solar energy. The goal of feed-in tariffs is to offer cost-based compensation to renewable energy producers, providing price certainty and long-term contracts that help finance renewable energy investments. The governmental costs related to this measure are passed on to all the energy consumer, citizens and companies. The average costs for a German household related to this measure are €3.10 per month. The feed-in tariff lowers every month based on the total installed capacity. It is expected that increased capacities will lower the costs, which is called economy of scale. In the period 1998-2008 the growth rate of solar PV was 58% each year, while the world average was 36% and 26% in the Netherlands. Jühnde A bioenergy village in Germany is a village which produces at least as much energy as it consumes. Especially biomass is widely used throughout Germany. Energy crops, agricultural residues and manure from livestock are used to produce biogas and convert this with CHP facilities into heat and electricity. Jühnde is a small village in the South of Germany with about 1100 inhabitants. The village is surrounded by agricultural and forest land. The University of Göttingen played a leading role in making Jühnde a bioenergy village. The majority of the citizens and local farmers participated in the project and about 60 % of CO2

emissions was reduced (IBEG, 2012). Transition aspects are:

- Macro level: national policy, financing scheme - Meso level: research institution

- Micro level: local availability of renewable energy, local participation, bottom-up development

7.2.2 Touchstone Energy Cooperatives, United States Glenn English, Chief Executive Officer of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) stated: “The push for renewable energy is a grassroots mixture of innovation and creativity, state and federal incentives, grants and research, science and business, and most important, an expression of the nation’s desire to be less dependent on imported oil”. The cooperation’s already started in 1935 and is based on geographical possibilities and necessities to generate safe, reliable and affordable electric power. Large power companies were not willing to invest in electricity in the country side. So, privately owned small cooperatives (there are over 900 nowadays) used their possibilities to generate energy locally from local resources. Wind energy from North Dakota to Texas, Alaska and Hawaii, bio-waste generation in rural areas, solar energy in remote and sunny areas like Arizona and hydro power near mountains are examples of the diversity in the generation mix. The cooperation’s have 42 million members and produced about 11% of their power from renewables, while the US electric utility sector only produces 9% from renewables. The combined forces of the small cooperatives use their experience, knowledge and innovative incentives to stimulate renewable growth and energy efficiency through national policy (Touchstone Energy Cooperatives, 2012). The difference in the renewables share of the cooperatives compared to the national achievements is quite small with only 2%. Since the cooperatives are founded from a necessity it seems that the availability of energy is more important than the renewable share. Transition aspects are:

- Macro level: Fuel independency - Meso level: Framework of people - Micro level: local availability of energy, bottom-up development

7.2.3 Bizen City, Japan Bizen City is a small city in the south of Japan with about 40,000 inhabitants near Okayama City (1.17 million inhabitants). The surrounding area is occupied with large areas of forests. Citizens, Non-profit and private companies in Bizen City, founded the MAHOROBA chamber, which is a council for a sustainable society. The Japanese ministry of environment selected the city in 2005 as a model to promote sustainable energy. The aim is a combination of environmental protection and economic development by job creation. Through the creation of the privately owned green company Bizen GE (green energy) three projects were set up. The ESCO service provides sustainable installations and services which can be bought or leased from Bizen GE. A total of 11 ESCO services were installed at small or middle sized construction projects in three years. Bizen GE purchased PV installations with government subsidy. The consumer only pays for the service and uses the electricity for free. Thus, the consumer has no initial costs, cheap electricity and a 20 years guarantee of supply. A total 335 kW has been installed since the beginning. Heat provided by Bizen GE mainly consists of wooden pellet stoves, of which 25 have been sold in three years. To finance these projects the concept of citizen investments was used. About 400 investors generated 2,100,000 dollar for the Bizen GE. After three years the Bizen GE Company reached annual sales between 2.2 and 3.3 million dollar and reduced CO2 emissions by 430 tons (Izutsu et al., 2012). Transition aspects are:

- Macro level: national policy - Meso level: economic development - Micro level: local availability of renewable energy, local participation, financing

scheme

7.2.5 Güssing, Austria Güssing, an Austrian village with approximately 27.000 inhabitants, is a good example of how local governments can develop a strategy for local electricity generation with renewable resources. An "energy transition" in Güssing started in the early 1990s with a major policy change towards the complete abandonment of fossil-fuel-based energy. During those times Güssing was part of one of the poorest regions in Austria. No major trade or business existed, infrastructure was lacking and the region was shrinking fast. The availability of large areas of forest land was the basis for the turnaround. Most of the energy is being generated by a biomass plant with wood chips as main resource (BMVIT, 2007). The "Güssing Model" is to be followed by the rest of the province. The first step in the model was to rigorously safe on the energy expenditures by upgrading all the buildings in the town centre, which resulted in 50% energy savings. To include the local community numerous demonstrations have been given, for example about a bio-diesel plant using rape oil and a district heating systems based on wood fuel. In 2001, Güssing became the first community in Europe that produces its whole energy demand out of renewable resources, all from within the region. In 2007 Güssing produced more energy than it could consume and exported renewable energy with an added value of €13 million per year. The renewable energy project of Güssing turned the region into a booming area with high living standards. Transition aspects are:

- Macro level: - - Meso level: regional policy, need for economic development, lack of business - Micro level: local availability of renewable energy, increasing awareness

7.3 Opportunities and solutions to overcome the hurdles Hurdles related to local renewable energy initiatives are described in section 7.1 based on the questionnaire results, expert interviews and literature sources. Possible solutions to these hurdles are presented in this section, which are based input given by the experts, the literature sources used in section 7.1.3 and lessons which can be learned from international examples. The Dutch government recently adopted a new agreement about the how to stimulate renewable growth in the (near) future (SER, 2013). Policy changes are described and applicable measures will be referred to within this section. Also, some technical related solutions which can be derived from section 5 will be incorporated. The solutions are divided into different aspects and presented from a multilevel perspective. This section concludes by describing the government ambition and the perspective on it. The key aspects in the transition according to the local initiatives, the interviewed experts and literature are:

- Knowledge - Finances - Local energy is not part of a system - Regime support - Government policy - Law and regulations - Societal impact - Attracting members or volunteers - Technical - System forces

7.3.1 Macro level Government policy

- Create level playing field: A market based approach is not desirable, since there is no level playing field. Renewable energy is currently not able to compete with fossil energy from a cost-price perspective. Incorporating external costs, such as the environmental impact creates a

fairer market. Subsidy schemes can be used to guide the transition into a desired direction.

- Role as facilitator: Active participation of the government as facilitator and not as participator is desired.

A system which connects civilians, entrepreneurs, water authorities, provinces,

municipalities can be created.

- Long term vision and short term goals: Denmark targeted a complete fossil fuel independency in 2050. Short term goals were set to gradually increase the renewable energy shares. Policy was adopted to make this possible. The SER report has the long term ambition to have a complete sustainable energy supply in 2050 and short term goals are set for 2020 and 2023. Clear goals clarify the government incentives and create support. Stability is more important than a perfect system.

- Monitoring and feedback: Innovations are not always successful and the government should as facilitator also observe the effects experiments and learn from best practises. The system approach can as a consequence be adapted accordingly.

- Grid congestion: In cases of grid congestion the current energy system uses fossil energy first. In Germany, renewable energy is prioritised when grid congestion occurs. Adopting such policies decreases the investment risks of renewable energy.

Law and regulations

- Salderen: New legislation as described by the SER report introduces postal code salderen. A tax discount of 7.5 €ct/kWh applies as long as the consumed (solar) energy is generated in the vicinity of the postal code area. This regulation change can have a major impact on the potential of local energy initiatives, since for instance a collective can use the local school building or the farmers’ barn to collectively supply it with solar PV and share the benefits of it. Also solar farms will become attractive and the business case of large scale solar PV becomes more attractive. The governmental costs related to this measure are compensated by increasing the consumers and companies energy tax. The current German feed-in tariff is currently around 14 €ct/kWh. Since the German tariff is aimed to create a level playing field it can be stated that the postal code salderen measure in the Netherlands is not sufficient to make solar PV fully compete with other energy sources when generated with grid interference. Generally, local initiatives have far lower overhead costs, thus it is advisable to investigate the business case opportunities. The Netherlands could also adopt the German feed-in strategy, which is also compensated by increasing the energy tax, but as demonstrated in Germany the average costs for a consumer are rather low. Also, the higher the installed capacity becomes the lower the feed-tariff becomes.

- Other subsidies: Currently the government subsidises renewable energy with the stimulation

agreement renewable energy (SDE+) and with green deals. Initiatives to generate

renewable energy can subscribe to get SDE+ subsidy. There is a limit to the yearly

money supply and the subsidy awarded based on the most cost effective business

cases. Therefore, new innovative and usually more costly initiatives have little change

of receiving SDE+ subsidy. The government provides green deals to initiatives in

which they lower the legal boundaries and make it easier to realise a project, although

no financial support is given. So far, these stimulation measures have not resulted in a

significant increase in the renewable energy share. Nevertheless, the initiatives show

great interest in these measures.

- Tax benefits: To stimulate the development of local energy the tax tariff for investing in renewable energy can be lowered from 21% to 6% as is currently also being applied within the construction sector.

System forces

- Energy density: The energy density of the Netherlands cannot be changed, but local energy resources do not always require extra space. Solar PV can be integrated in the building environment, while wind energy can be integrated on agricultural lands.

- International need for change: The European Union has a leading role in setting the rules related to shares of renewable energy within Europe. The Netherlands is required to follow the rules.

- Energy independency Countries like Denmark lacked natural resources and therefore focused on renewable energy. Also, the Dutch society is becoming increasingly aware of the energy dependency from political and economic instable regions.

Societal impact

- Societal pressure: Rotmans (2012) stated that transitions are chosen by the society. Thus, if society really wants to, the policy will be adapted in favour of renewable energy as long as the bottom-up pressure is strong enough. As proven in Germany and Denmark, the society can benefit from increased amounts of renewable energy, since jobs are created. To create more support an open dialogue between all parties and citizens involved is necessary.

- Public debate: The Netherlands is facing comparable issues as Germany faced in the struggle to increase renewable energy shares. Local initiatives and niche companies can take the lead. According to the experts and some literature sources the public opinion and also the majority of the political regime prefers renewable energy over fossil energy.

7.3.2 Meso level Local energy as part of a system

- Cooperation: Cooperation is needed between the initiatives, which combine forces to form a stronger front. Initiatives can employ their strengths and learn from others to improve their weaknesses, like the Touchstone Energy Cooperatives in the United States managed to achieve.

- Organisation: It is unclear who to turn to for certain problems. For instance, if a plumber is required the golden pages are consulted. This hampers the speed of the transition. An overarching independent organisation could bring to together the initiatives and provide the initiatives with the support they need. Also, this organisation can lobby as the LREI representative to achieve desired changes. Currently, the NMF organisation has the capacity, skills and local involvement to organise and professionalise the local energy system.

Regime support

- Cooperation: Initiatives can better seek for cooperation with instead of acting against the regime. Rotmans noticed a prudent shift towards a more decentralised focus within traditional companies and newcomers are trying to become part of the regime. More commercial companies are needed to support local energy, although the profits need to be invested in the local area, since this is one of the main drivers of local renewable

energy initiatives. White label constructions can be used to become an energy supplier. The licence is owned by a renowned energy supplier and through cooperation (and mutually sharing of benefits) the initiative is allowed to supply energy.

- Research institutions: Energy research and guidance to provide tools for the initiatives can be conducted by research institutes. For instance, Mallon suggested that energy related companies could help initiatives by providing consultancy, business development, optimising the system, designing a local energy system, scenario modelling and so forth.

Technical

- Infrastructure: Infrastructural grid adaption is needed to manage two direction energy flows.

- Variety in resources: Combining multiple renewable energy sources could significantly reduce the overall variability and hence increase the stability.

- Decentralised closed distribution system: A decentralised closed distribution system in which the individual users (could also be companies) operate as a collective. There is legally one main meter connected to the central grid. A well-balanced system including smart metering devices could potentially result in a self-sufficiency share of 80%, hereby strongly reducing the impact on the central grid, since only 20% of the initial capacity is needed. De Jong stated that if the local distribution company is able to apply load balancing possibilities locally (peak shaving) major grid investment cost savings can be achieved by the TSO and DSO companies. The consumer who is part of the virtual grid reduces its pressure on the grid and should be able get a more beneficial tariff.

- Load balancing: Smart grid systems need to be developed to improve the load balancing, but also flexible voltage control and sophisticated fault detection and safety procedures. Great opportunities lie in innovative storage systems.

- Energy storage: Energy storage is crucial is the opinion of all the experts. It is extremely important to create energy buffers, which is also demonstrated in section 5.7 in which the electricity potential is twice the electricity consumption need and still 14% of grid support is needed. Batteries have insufficient capacity to store large amounts of energy. Extend for instance the usage of water reservoirs in Scandinavia, or use new techniques like the osmosis between salt and sweet water. There needs to be short term and long term storage, like fuel cells and underground heat storage. Short term storage can for example be applied with the large scale introduction of electric cars. Seasonal storage is especially important in respect to solar PV. The fossil energy sources should more be used as a buffer instead of a primary energy source. A new buffering market could be developed, in which the Netherlands could focus of gas buffering.

7.3.3 Micro level Governmental support

- Spatial policy: Spatial policy from the bottom-up can create local support. This has been demonstrated by multiple international examples.

- Energy desks: In the starting phase of an initiative there is strong need for information and knowledge. The SER report proposes the introduction of energy desks. As of 2016 most municipalities and provinces should be facilitates with an energy desk. This desk has all the desired information about local energy entrepreneurs available for renovation projects related to energy saving measures. The energy desks should be

extended with information provision about local energy generation possibilities and information about technical, legal, financial and business management entrepreneurs. The desks should be available to help initiatives or individuals to make proper decisions.

- Setting an example: Local governments can set an example by becoming a costumer of a certain local initiative which delivers energy. This can be a vital first push for the initiative to take off. Mutual trust and openness is important. It should be clear what the interests and rolls of the different actors are.

Awareness and knowledge

- Energy understanding: The founding of an Energy academy, as took place in Samsø is an opportunity to share knowledge with the public and give the initiatives the organisational tools. This can be part of the energy desks, as the other aspects of knowledge also should be.

- Climate ambassadors: The SER report introduces climate ambassadors to demonstrate best practises and increase social support.

Societal impact

- NIMBY effect: Musall and Kuik (2011) studied the local acceptance of renewable energy and surprisingly found the strongest support among those living closest to the windmills. Once a certain renewable installation is build the acceptance is growing. Also, the social acceptance is higher when the local community is involved, preferably financially.

- Energy resources: There is great variety between the renewable energy sources of wind, solar and

biomass when it comes to social support. Solar energy has great potential, comparable

to the potential of wind energy. There is no lack of social support for solar energy and

biomass. Conditions to improve solar energy:

o Implementation of solar PV in new building and renovations

o Active policy to stimulate solar farms

o Remove legal boundaries for small scale renewable energy generation

o Campaigns aimed at civilians and companies

Wind energy is not so much bound to the technical boundaries, but more to the social

constraints. There is a strong opposition against wind energy. Wind energy intiatives

should be approached extremely careful.

- Communication: Communication and mutual understanding is important to succeed with wind energy.

- Bottom-up development: Compensation and participation in wind energy projects for the local community can increase social acceptance. Ownerships schemes like in Denmark can be adopted.

- Economic development: As demonstrated by the international examples focussing on the development of local energy can boost the local economy and can make poor regions blossom again. The eastern parts of the province of Groningen for instance are amongst the poorest regions in the Netherlands and have a good availability of agricultural lands suitable for biomass and wind energy that can be utilized.

- Awareness: Societal support increases when people are provided with tools and understanding about the effects of change. Energy labels and large scale introduction of smart meters can increase awareness.

Finances

- Financial constructions: Financial support is critical for the long term survival of an initiative. During the foundation phase it is important to raise capital. Different strategies can be used, for example:

o Crowd funding in which participants support the initiative and receive a fair rate of return.

o A so called ‘Sugar daddy’ is not always easy to find, but with a descent business case bank loans with higher interest rates could be prevented.

- Structural cooperation between banks and investors: o Financial institutions should share knowledge and experience amongst each

other. o Standardised contract needs to be developed. o Administrative optimisation should be aimed for. For example: possibilities to

pay for investment via the energy bill. o The government or market actors should cover risks related to local initiatives.

Risk insurance can be bought, which makes the banks more eager to provide a loan to the initiative.

Attracting members or volunteers: Initiatives have great problems related to attracting members or volunteers to the initiative. Besides financial incentives and raising awareness, a few examples are given to attract more members.

- Enthusiasm: A positive attitude and demonstrating the possibilities and importance of helping to change the society can catch on. Show that change is possible. Complaining about the difficulties and hard work is contra productive.

- Involvement: Show the potential members that they, if desirable, can participate in de decision making process.

- Publicity: Especially when founding a co-operation publicity is important to inform people about the existence of the initiative. But, it should be affordable.

- Gadgets: Offer gadgets when joining the initiative, comparable to the gifts given by the traditional energy companies.

- Lower initial costs: Offer to install solar panels, which are paid via the energy bill. This takes away the high initial costs of purchasing solar panels.

- Share profits: Investing the profits visibly in the local community will increase the social support and make people more willingly to join the initiative.

7.3.4 Government ambition and perspective The SER report sets the ambition to have a completely sustainable energy supply in 2050. Interim goals are set at 2020 (14% renewable share) and 2023 (16% renewable share). The trias energetica principle is used. First, energy savings are needed, second renewable energy should be exploited and third fossil energy should be generated with the least environmental impact (hence CCS technology). Decentralised energy is responsible for 40 PJ in 2020 and consists of solar power and predominantly biomass. No exact numbers are given. Wind energy is not considered as decentralised. The wind energy path is clearly defined. Onshore wind energy in 2011 reached shares of 14 PJ and is expected to reach 54 PJ in 2020, an installed capacity of 6000 MW, which can only be reached by significant measures to increasing societal support.

Geurts and Rathmann reported about the potential of solar PV. Currently (2011), the Netherlands has 0.2 PJ of solar PV. The annual solar PV growth rate in Germany was 58% spread over a 10 year period. If all the policy measures are in favour of solar PV and the Netherlands is following the transition path of Germany solar PV can become responsible 21 PJ of electricity in 2020, which would be a little over 5% in the 2010 Dutch electricity supply. This is equivalent to the electricity consumption of 1.7 million households (based on an average usage of 3400 kWh/y), which is 23% of the Dutch households. The theoretical potential of solar PV (with current technology) as described in section 4.2 is 30% of the Dutch electricity supply, which can be reached in 2050. An annual growth rate of 17% is needed, which can be considered realistic. Both volume increase and technological development can make this happen. NMF Groningen and Drenthe reported on the potential of renewable energy in the three Northern provinces. Solar PV can generate around 3.2 PJ of electricity by 2020 if measures are taken to actively stimulate solar PV. As a result 20% of all the available roofs from households and companies need to be equipped, 20 PV farms of 1 ha are needed and 10% of the households would have a solar boiler. For the Northern provinces this would mean an annual growth rate 100%. Within the business as usual scenario 0.93 PJ is reached, which still requires a growth rate of 77%. The growth rates are biased since the initial value is rather low. The technical potential as calculated in section 5.7 is 19.5 PJ, which indicates that solar PV can continue to grow after 2020. Onshore wind energy in the Northern provinces is expected to reach 7.8 PJ, which equals 600 MW of extra installed capacity and a total capacity of 1130 MW is reached in 2020. This can only be reached with facilitating measures from the regional government. The technical potential as used in the broader perspective, section 5.7, is 2900 MW of onshore wind energy in the Northern provinces. Social acceptance of wind energy is crucial and the general public currently opposes onshore wind energy, which makes it hard to ever reach the full potential. Biomass is used as heat resource in the policy documents and can therefore not be compared with the technical potential. Nevertheless, there is little social constraint against biomass and it is therefore limited to price development and the availability of local resources. The government showed willingness to change the society in a more sustainable one with significant shares of renewable energy by setting up the SER report. Other countries already underwent certain changes. The government wants to promote sustainability and wants to use test-cases to demonstrate successes. An energy contest as held in Denmark could be the ideal test-case. A facilitating government, a bottom-up development process with strong local participation and support from research institutes to manage load issues and implement renewable energy sources altogether should be able to prove that multilevel cooperation within the Netherlands can be a strong success factor in the transition towards a more sustainable energy future.

7.4 Transition indicators As described in chapter 3 a transition a gradual process and often fails to take off. According to the experts local renewable energy initiatives have the potential to obtain a significant impact within the Dutch energy system and will most likely succeed. Zuidema indicated some take-off indicators and inhibitors and Rotmans analysed the energy system and identified that the transition is currently entering the take-off stage. The take-off indicators are: Macro level

- Price development of renewable energy compared to fossil energy. The price of renewable energy has significantly dropped during the last decades and especially solar PV is expected to rapidly become cheaper. Still, fossil energy sources such as coal are still much cheaper and other measures are needed to speed up the transition.

- Deepening of the economic crisis leads to innovations and changes of the current system.

- International policy can force countries to rapidly change their behaviour and implement desired changes.

- Changes in the national law and legislation can improve the conditions for local initiatives, but is a consequence rather than a cause of change.

- Societal pressure. Zuidema indicated that 5 years ago no students at the faculty of spatial sciences were involved in energy, nowadays almost every student is to some extent working on energy related topics. The society is gradually becoming more aware of the climate problems and develops a positive attitude in favour of a more sustainable society.

Meso level

- The energy regime is increasingly supporting renewable energy initiatives. - Transmission and distribution operators are adjusting the energy system to be able to

coop with large scale renewable energy. Micro level

- Societal support in favour of renewable energy. - The number of local renewable energy initiatives is rapidly growing. - Innovative research on smart grids and improved load management is prevalent.

Take-off inhibitors can be:

- The discovery of new and cheaper sources of conventional energy, like extra coal and gas reserves, but also shale gas and tar sands.

- Price development can also be in favour of fossil energy, for example the price development of coal.

- Government policy can both be the engine and the inhibitor of the transition process. - The incumbent energy regime is of great influence in the decision making process.

8. CONCLUSION The aim of this research was to identify the potential of local renewable energy initiatives in the transition towards a more sustainable energy future in the Netherlands. Literature analysis provided the theoretical potential of the locally utilised energy resources, solar PV, wind and biomass with restrictions to the availability on agricultural and residential lands. The energy potential is debatable and varies between 38% (155 PJ) and 510% (2075 PJ) of the total electricity supply in the Netherlands, in which wind energy show the largest differences. Calculating the spatial settings that vary in population density, land-use and electricity consumption patterns, by using MEED and PowerPlan, showed significant differences in the electricity potential and the grid stability. The city of Groningen is unable to rely on the locally available resources and will need 65% grid-support to maintain a reliable electricity system. The Village of Hooghalen is able to generate more electricity than it consumes and is just able to keep a stable electricity grid without grid-support. Still, there is an overcapacity of 80% excess renewable energy, which is needed because of the intermittent character of wind and solar PV. The fictive Township can easily become self-sufficient in respect of the electricity consumption. It even has the potential to export loads of electricity to the grid, which can be used by cities as Groningen. The broader perspective combines the spatial settings and compiles the potential of the Dutch provinces of Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe. The electricity potential is 14.3 GWh/y, while the consumption is 8.7 GWh/y. Nonetheless, the broader perspective will need 14% grid-support in the electricity output. Solar PV is responsible for 37%, wind for 36% and biomass for 13%. The questionnaire held amongst 160 local initiatives (response rate of 50%) provided more insights from a societal perspective and shows great future potential. The LREIs (mostly co-operations) are strongly motivated to increase the shares of local renewable energy and do this mainly by increasing the production, becoming an energy supplier, information provision and collective purchase. The majority of the 400 plus initiatives have been founded in 2012 and although the current size of the LREIs is rather small there is no lack of ambition. Local energy can potentially reach shares between 10-25% of the total energy supply. A variety of hurdles have been identified by literature, the interviewed experts and the LREIs which could inhibit the potential growth of local energy. The main hurdles are lack of financial means, attracting members or volunteers, complicated law and regulation, lack of government leadership, lack of a well-organised system, an unwilling market and technical system imperfections, but also a lack of knowledge, public resistance (mainly against wind energy), and a lack of support from lower level governments. The international examples proved that a bottom-up development process in which the national government shapes the rules as facilitator (for example by implementing the concept of postal code salderen) is needed to realise a transition take-off. The transition is chosen by society, and further needs an open dialogue between actors, a stable political regime. Also, proper financial constructions and technical support is needed. With suitable policy measures and societal willingness the Netherlands is able grasp the technical potential of solar PV in 2050. Onshore wind energy is, due to the social constraints, less likely to reach the technical potential with local energy generation. As shown in this research there is great potential and willingness for local energy initiatives to significantly contribute to a more sustainable energy future in the Netherlands, but some key hurdles need to be overcome. More research into solving these hurdles is needed.

9. DISCUSSION AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE According to this research there is great potential and willingness for local energy initiatives to significantly contribute to a more sustainable energy future in the Netherlands, both from a technical and a societal point of view. The results will be critically reflected in this section. Technical potential In chapter 4 a theoretical analysis of the potential of decentralised energy from agricultural and residential lands is presented, since these are available for local energy purposes. This showed large differences between especially wind and solar PV energy sources. The conservative view assumes a power capacity of 100 Wp/m2 and is based on literature dating from 2004. Nowadays solar cell technology has been improved substantially and Monfoort and Ros (2008) expect a future potential of 300 Wp/m2, which greatly increases the potential. The calculated potential assumes every residential and agricultural building will be supplied with solar panels, which is technically possibly, but practically impossible. It is unrealistic to assume that every resident is willing to supply their roofs with solar panels, even if the purchase prices drop significantly. A potential of 20.2 TWh/y (given the conservative perspective) could fulfil 64% of the total electricity consumption in the Netherlands. As shown in chapter 5, such solar PV percentages cannot be reached without losing grid stability. The literature results about the potential of wind energy show great diversity varying from 7 to 500 TWh/y. Some take into account social constraints, like Noord et al. (2004) and, assuming a power density of 10 MW/km2

and that only 2-4% of the available agricultural land can be used to utilise wind energy, still this results in electricity shares of 6.6% in the total electricity consumption of the Netherlands. Theoretically, the potential is much larger and can be around 500 TWh/y, which is roughly 5 times the total amount of electricity generated in the Netherlands in 2010. The conservative perspective leads to an installed capacity of 3200 MW, while the Netherlands has the objective to install 6000 MW of onshore wind energy by 2020, which makes the conservative perspective too modest, while an installed capacity of 229 GW wind energy from the optimistic perspective is unrealistic, although technically possible. The theoretical potential of Biomass is based on only two literature sources, which more or less outline the same results. Biomass can supply around 2% of the TFC in the Netherlands and 15% of the electricity consumption, which is rather small, but realistic. A total of 43 TWh/y of electricity can be produced by the combined renewable energy sources in the conservative perspective, which is only 40% of the total electricity in the Netherlands in 2010, while the optimistic perspective (576 TWh/y) is 539% of the electricity consumption. The discrepancies in the wind energy potential makes it hard to point out the realistic potential, but it should be clear that the potential of the common renewables generated locally can more than significantly contribute in the TPES. The PowerPlan calculations uses a wind power density of 15 MW/km2 and restricts the available wind energy to 3% of the agricultural lands and is therefore rather conservative, while the solar PV calculations assume every household to be supplied with solar panels with a power density of 200 MW/m2. This makes the wind energy shares rather modest and the solar PV shares a bit too optimistic in the modelling results. The biomass calculations are based on the biogas supply chain model provided by Bekkering (2010). The model uses a substantive amount of assumption which influences the outcome, namely the cosubstrate yields, the land availability for energy crops, the digester performance, but also the manure/cosubstrate choices and shares can be differently chosen. Varying the supply chain model parameters strongly influences the biogas yields, which makes the results subject to

argumentation. The 12.5% share in the electricity output of the broader perspective however is comparable with the theoretical potential and therefore concluded to be the best fit. The excess renewable energy in every spatial setting is quite substantive, but necessary to maintain system reliability without grid support. For instance, Hooghalen has 22.8 of excess renewable electricity produced, while the total production is 28.5 GWhe. This energy could be re-delivered to the net, but it would be better to introduce a certain percentage of grid support, in order to prevent the waste of renewable energy and improve the system balancing. The broader perspective introduces such a system, in which the grid support accounts for 14% of the electricity output. The electricity consumption is 8.7 TWhe and the maximum supply is 16.6 TWhe (including grid support), thus about twice the amount of electricity needs to be generated in order to maintain a reliable energy system. The overcapacity in the Netherlands is also around twice compared to the energy output. Thus, the results can be judged as realistic and the provinces of Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland are potentially able to reach an electricity supply containing 74% of locally produced renewable electricity. Although a complete renewable electricity system seems impossible the broader perspective PowerPlan results can be improved by adding multiple wind energy patterns based on the dispersion of wind energy. This could potentially increase system reliability. Other renewable energy sources, such as the energy from water and geothermal energy can boost the potential even further. Furthermore, energy storage facilities, like earth heat storage or fuel cells can flatten peak demands and smart grid systems can flatten peak loads. Further research into these possibilities strongly improves the potential of renewable energy and incorporates the entire system.

Societal potential

Although, from a technical point of view local energy has great potential, the society must be willing and capable of realising a transition towards a more renewable society. Currently, the local energy initiatives are growing rapidly and already exceed 400 initiatives. The questionnaire and the NMF database provided data to classify and describe the current status and future ambition. The questionnaire was held among 160 publically available initiatives, from which 80 responded, thus most of the results are based on the answers given by 20% of the initiatives. The results could therefore be slightly biased, since it is believed that publically available initiatives are on average larger in size and further developed. Most initiatives are small and have no members or customers and still are in the starting phase. Only 5 initiatives have sizes which exceed 1000 customers and it is expected that this is 5 out of 400, from which two initiatives are situated on the Dutch islands of Texel and Ameland. Furthermore, it is clear that most initiatives are involved in solar PV activities, which is based on the NMF database and therefore not biased. Most initiatives have been founded in 2012 and a large part of this group is still in its foundation phase and therefore it is uncertain if the initiatives will succeed. It has not been investigated how many initiatives failed to follow through with their activities and stopped the initiative. In order to decide on the future perspective it would be interesting to keep track of the amount of initiatives that fail. For instance, the founding years of the local initiatives can be asked for every couple of years and if the number of a certain year is lower than during the last survey the drop out percentage can be calculated. According to the questionnaire only a few initiatives were founded between 1988 and 1994 and none between 1995 and 2005, but there is a good chance that a number of initiatives stopped their activities before 2013. According to the initiatives and interviewed experts the future of local energy production and initiatives seems bright (potential shares in the energy supply between 10-25% are mentioned), but the question arises whether or not this trend will last. As the international

examples indicated a combination of indicators are needed to succeed. Most importantly, the society must be willing to allocate their energy use to renewables, which could initiate a bottom-up development. It is unrealistic, as Deventer energy wants to achieve, that half of the people in a certain region will join a local energy initiative, but every consumer is free to choose their energy supplier. Research into the psychology of people’s energy behaviour (Steg, 2013) has been studied in the recent years, but should be combined more extensively with more practical routes (field experiments) into how people can be convinced to change their energy behaviour. The society can be influenced however by a number of key-factors to overcome the hurdles. Hurdles can be of financial nature, law and regulations, knowledge, lack of government support, public resistance or a lack of time. As a consequence of the hurdles initiatives have difficulties to attract members or volunteers. Government support is crucial to create to proper development conditions. The government is responsible for law and legislation and positively stimulate local or renewable energy. This has been proven by countries like Germany and Denmark. Nevertheless, it is understandable for the Netherlands to act patiently and to wait and see how other countries develop en deal with problems like load balancing. Also, the Netherlands is capable of waiting, since Dutch gas is still profitably mined, from which also the government profits. Thus, there is a negative economic incentive to invest in renewable energy, which makes it important to increase the societal pressure. The influence of the government is crucial according to transition experts like Rotmans (2012), but ‘in the end a transition is chosen by the society’. Currently, the new electricity law is being debated and multiple organisations in favour of renewable energy are trying to influence the process. Besides the societal influence and the government support a framework of people with money and skills, regime support and local energy as part of system are needed. Financial means can create influence and give tools to further develop an initiative. Especially during the foundation phase of an initiative, when for example bank loans are needed, financial means can make the process easier. The incumbent energy regime is maintaining its position and since the power is with the regime it is important to make the regime aware of the possible financial benefits. Opposing against the energy regime has been tried before during the late 70’ and no real changes were observed afterwards. During a conference about local energy initiatives in the autumn of 2012 in Amersfoort, the Netherlands, the interest of business parties was observed, besides the intrinsically motivated renewable supporters. This could be an indication of change in which the regime (or at least part of it), is accepting the presence of local energy and trying to get involved. Research into the interests of the regime about local energy could give some insights into the willingness of the regime to cooperate and to what degree. The local energy initiatives are currently fragmented and not part of system. This is no surprise, since the development is rather new, but as part of a well-structured system people will also be able to know who to turn to. How to organise this new development could be a subject to research. Other external indicators for a transition take-off can be price development (both positively as well as negatively), deepening of the economic crisis and international policy. Renewable energy will most likely become less expensive and especially solar PV, because of technical innovations, while most fossil energy sources become more difficult to mine and hence increase expenditures. Rotmans pointed out that most changes and innovations where accomplished in economic difficult times. Obviously, in days of prosperity there is no need to change. It is no surprise that most initiatives have been founded during the last few years and none have been founded in the prosper nineties. There is good change the energy market will turn to the business as usual mentality when the financial crisis is over. On the other hand, if the take-off can be realised before this happens, the transition will definitely succeed.

There is also a large difference between the societal potential of wind energy and solar PV. As reported the social constraints against wind energy will most likely prevent large parts of the wind energy initiatives to get inhibited. Lessons can be learned from examples like the Samsø Island in which the bottom-up development, local involvement and ownership schemes where able to tackle the NIMBY effect. Moreover, after the implementation of wind energy most people are in favour. Additionally, the benefits should be invested in the local community. It is expected that solar PV can realise the technical potential by 2050 with some minor policy changes. The potential of local energy initiatives from a societal perspective is also significant and could potentially be an important aspect in the transition towards a more sustainable and renewable Dutch society. Nevertheless, some major hurdles need to be overcome, but the most important first barrier is taken, which is that the vast majority of the society is in favour of renewable energy. This is also recognised by the government which very recently changed some regulations in favour of local energy purposes. For instance, the postal code salderen concept can really boost local energy. However, the subsidy price is rather low, which shows that the government is not yet ready to fully support renewable energy. This research focusses on the electricity supply, while this is only around 13% of the TPES. In order to make the energy system more sustainable additional measures are needed, like energy saving measures, improved insulation of buildings and greening of transport.

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APPENDICES A1: Questionnaire 1. Select from the answers below how your initiative can be classified.

Multiple answers are possible.

Information provision

Energy supplier

Energy production

Collective purchase

Investment fund

Other. …

2. What is the founding year of your initiative? 3. Is your initiative initiated by the public. municipality. province or other? 4. What is the legal form of your initiative?

Cooperation

Private company

Working group

Foundation

Other. … 5. What is the percentage of volunteers within your initiative? 6. Describe the main activities of your initiative? 7. How many members does your initiative have? If inapplicable please fill in zero 8. How many customers does your initiative have? If inapplicable please fill in zero 9. What was the main reason to found your initiative? 10. Please identify the 3 main hurdles when founding your initiative? 11. Please identify the 3 main hurdles whilst keeping the initiative up and running? 12. Do you have any further comments?

A2: Background of interviewed experts J.W. Zwang, Greenspread: Mr J.W. Zwang is an entrepreneur in the energy market. His background in the energy sector makes him an expert in energy trading, risk management and financial robustness of organisations. He is actively involved as developer of various renewable energy projects and also manages local energy companies such as DEVO (Veenendaal, the Netherlands), DEVA (Nieuwkoop, the Netherlands) and ADEM (Houten, the Netherland). Besides, he is the director of Greenspread, which is an independent consultancy firm focused on the development and exploitation of different kinds of renewable projects. C.J. Hoedemaker-Bos, NMF Groningen: Ms C.J. Hoedemaker-Bos is currently employed as a project manager and policy maker at the Natuur en Milieu-Federatie Groningen (NMG). She is mainly involved in projects and policy concerning climate change and sustainable energy. She manages a large project supporting and stimulating local sustainable energy co-operations. These co-operations play an important role in the transition towards sustainable energy supply. Local sustainable energy co-operations constitute a bottom-up movement: individuals working together to realise small energy co-operations. The initiators of these co-operations are capable of motivating others to invest in local energy sources. This helps to create a solid social support base for the necessary steps which have to be taken in the transition period. For example, locally produced sustainable energy by windmills or biogas installations will have a spatial impact on the countryside.

The national and provincial Natuur en Milieu-Federatie supports these initiatives by organising meetings and discussion platforms, providing and structuring information, maintaining a professional network and developing tools. Policy makers and the local initiatives are brought together by the Groningen NMG, forming the connection between them. The NMG represents the initiatives on several occasions and helps to promote their interests. Richard and Susanne Ton, Energie Coöperatie NoordseVeld: Mrs and Mr Ton have been involved for decades in applying and promoting sustainable energy, although not professionally. Both had been involved in education at an extensive range of schools, both in Holland and abroad. When they moved to the north of the Netherlands, they picked up on the current trend of setting up local energy co-operatives. In 2010 they built on the local village idea to extend it to a council with 15,000 citizens. The co-operative (Energie Coöperatie NoordseVeld) firstly sells energy and, secondly, promotes the application of producing green energy, now mainly with solar panels. They also set up an 'EnergyShop' where they can realise their co-operative's third pillar, i.e. providing advice to the population of Noordenveld, a municipality in northern Drenthe. Hence, the co-operative has customers and members. With their own province (Drenthe) and the two other northern provinces of Groningen and Friesland, they currently work on a regional energy company, in order to control the purchase and selling of green energy, keeping the benefits within their own region. If that succeeds, in the face of legal and political obstacles, it would be the first co-operative local energy company of its kind, predominantly run by volunteers. For Mr Ton, who taught journalism, it confirms the idea that the protest antagonistic movements of the 70s have been replaced by the positive bottom-up initiatives of the second decade of the 21st century. E.H. de Jonge, Enexis:

Mr E.H.de Jonge has been working in the energy sector for more than 10 years. He is involved in matters related to legal dilemmas with regards to energy transition. He helped in making the legal conditions to inject green gas into the regional grid. As a professor he is promoting the paradigm shift from a top down to a bottom up approach. Sustainable energy supply is a challenge within the coming years. For the grid operator this means an involvement in the way energy supply is changing. As infrastructure is rolled out for a period of 50 years, it is important to have an outlook how this demand and supply is going to be realised. In fact it has to do with the basic dilemma, how to change your grid operation, during a substantial change of paradigm. It has to do with assumptions, with scenarios and a legal framework. Mr E.H.de Jonge wants to ensure that the upcoming generation is able and willing to participate in this change. He is the chairman of the Board of Supervisors of the Vincent van Gogh school in Assen, being a secondary school. As a principal lawyer for Enexis, he is involved in matters related to energy legislation, as well as in regional matters related to the infrastructure in the north of the Netherlands. W.Ch. Mallon, DNV KEMA: Mr W.Ch. Mallon, a senior consultant at DNV KEMA Energy and Sustainability, has a background in mechanical engineering and economy. He has been active in the gas industry for more than thirty years in various fields, technical as well as economical. His current research pertains to the technical aspects related to a safe and reliable transport of carbon dioxide. Besides, he has specific expertise in gas applications, economic modelling and system optimisation. He is working on a project to map the contextual conditions of resilient decentralised energy systems. He is also actively involved as project leader in the Flexinet Pro program, which is inter alia aimed to assist the municipality of Hooghalen (province of Drenthe) in becoming energy self-sufficient. Dr. C. Zuidema, University of Groningen: Christian Zuidema PhD is assistant professor in Spatial Planning at the Department of Spatial Planning and Environment, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen. Zuidema has a background in environmental planning and has done extensive research on topics such as sustainable urban management, environmental health and hygiene, governance renewal in environmental planning and spatial transitions towards new energy systems. His studies have focused on developments in the Netherlands and the EU. His teaching addresses courses on themes such as environmental planning and sustainable development. Following his research, he has published various books, such as Smart Methods for Environmental Externalities (2012), Stimulating Local Environmental Policy (2011) and Towards Liveable Cities in Europe (forthcoming). Furthermore, he is part of the International Urban Planning and Environment Association. He is involved in various research projects, related to urban sustainability, decentralised energy landscapes and renewable energy production in space.

A3: Images of the city of Groningen and the area of Hooghalen.

Figure A1. The area of Hooghalen includes Hooghalen. Laaghalen and Verspreide huizen Hooghalen. The image is adopted from google earth and represents a 2005 picture.

Figure A2.The City of Groningen. The image is adopted from Google earth and represents a 2009 picture.

A4: Yearly demand patterns of the spatial settings as described in chapter 5.

Figure A3. Demand pattern of the City of Groningen with the renewable electricity supply added in green. Pattern is generated by using PowerPlan.

Figure A4. Demand pattern of the Village of Hooghalen with the renewable electricity supply added in green. Pattern is generated by using PowerPlan.

Figure A5. Demand pattern of the Fictive Township with the renewable electricity supply added in green. Pattern is generated by using PowerPlan.

Figure A6. Demand pattern of the broader perspective, with the renewable electricity supply added in green. Pattern is generated by using PowerPlan.

The potential of local renewable energy initiatives

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