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70
80
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100
110
120
2019 202050
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90
100
110
120
2019 2020
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60
70
80
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120
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11 12 APEC9 G7 11 21 22 G20
11 ASEAN12 OPEC
FOMC
ECB
11
1974 111.7
1981 1038.3
1986 78.6
1990 939.9
1999 29.8
2008 6136.0
2008 1241.9
20146
110.7
2016 128.3
0
50
100
150
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
/1
2007-082008 9 15
1990 81979 1
1997 7
1973 10 1985 7OPEC OPEC
1980 9 1988 8
2003 2007
2013-14
2020 635.24
2020
2021112
2020+170
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2020 2020 5
2020 4 WTI OPEC2
EIA 2020 2021
2020 5
WTI
2020 6 2020 7 EIA
EIA UFJ
OECD
Bloomberg UFJ
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24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
12
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10
15
20
25
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35
40
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400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
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2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
201410 101,609
20095
20207 10
181
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
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1,100932753
970 2020 67
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1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
1996 =100
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GDP M3
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0.6
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1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012 2020
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050100150200250300350400450500550600
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10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
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020406080
100120140160180200220240260280300
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GDP
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
S&P500
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80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
239
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196
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166
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100110120130140
1975 1984 1993 2002 2011 2020
%
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119
75
IT
101
59
2008 398.6
8488
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1995 =100
147
267
373
476
437
409
2030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180
1975 1984 1993 2002 2011 2020
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114
104
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2020
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82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
=100
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2015 5 15 -
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0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
%
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GDP
GDP
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2019-2021
2020 2021 IMF World Economic OutlookGDP 2020 6 4
2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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100
105
110
115
120
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=100
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100
110
120
130
140
150
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90
94
98
102
106
110
114
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2019 10
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2020 1
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10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
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4,500
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5,500
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6,500
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ICT
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1995 =100
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5.5
6.0
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP
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2009 1-3
23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2020964
GDP
8.6
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0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2020160.3
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20
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25
30
35
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1015202530354045505560657075808590
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4Refinitiv UFJ
GDPGDP
2020 6 GDP 1-34-6 UFJ M2GDP
UFJ
PER
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
2004 1-3 100
GDP
/
25
5-6
2020 1-3 GDP 5.0% 10COVID-19
7-9
7-9 V VL
GDP
UFJ
2020 1-32020 4-6 2021 4-6 UFJ
PCES&P 2020 7 15 7
Census Bureau NAR S&P FRB ISM MBA Bloomberg UFJ
GDP 4
( ) ( )
PCEPCE
ISMISM
2018 20202019
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.4
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 /
NY
-35-30-25-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
20201-3
GDP5.0%
GDP
2008 9 20142011 8
2017 1
2020
26
3
PPP()
2 10
2020 5UFJ
2020 6FRB UFJ
UFJ
2020 6
PPPUFJ
2020 67 11
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2012 2016 2020
%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2008 2012 2016 2020
%
-20-15-10
-505
10
1 2 3 4 5 6
2020 1 5
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
2008 2012 2016 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6
%
2020
3 4.4 5.34 14.7 19.55 13.3 16.46 11.1 12.3
27
FRB6
5 6
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
ISMISM
1985 =100
%
1 3.5
CRFB UFJ
S&P500
2020 6 ISM 50ISM UFJ
2020 7 16Citi Bloomberg UFJ
2020 7 16 UFJ
FRB
2020 7 15FRB UFJ
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
S&P500
PMCCF SMCCF 7,500 5.8%
MSLP 6,000 6.3%
MLF 5,000 3.2%
PPPLF 3,500 10.1%
MMF MMLF 1,000 18.6%
CP CPFF 1,000 10.7%
ABS TALF 1,000 9.4%
2.5
PPP 6,700 76.3%
6,500 32.3%
FRB 4,540 43.0%
2,900 92.2%
2,800 78.0%
1,500 99.3%
3.6
40.4%11,060
28
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2005 2010 2015 2020-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
S&P500
%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
VL
6 2020 6Conference Board UFJ 1,416 2020 7 11
YouGov UFJ
V
2020 6UFJ
2020 1-3 S&P5002020 7 15 8
FRB S&P NBER UFJ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
%
29
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
10 1 4 7
1990
2000
2010
2019
202010 9 =1
020406080
100120140
2001 2021
2024116
%GDP
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
01020304050607080
010203040506070
1 4 72020
%
VL L2
2
2
CRFB
CRFB Committee for a Responsible Federal BudgetUFJ
Bloomberg UFJ
202012
2020 8 1 GDP CBO GDPUFJ
2020 6GDP 2024 IMF 2024
IMF UFJ
PredictIt2020 7 16
PredictIt UFJ
2020 5
-0.8-0.5
-0.8
-1.9
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
20212
1 2 5 102030
-5.2
GDP
GDP
%
30
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
1 3 6 1 2 3
%
20207 16
202012
202112
202212
2020 2022
0.125
YCT
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2013 2016 2019
%
/
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 /2020
FRB
FRB UFJ
FRB
FRB
FRB
FRB UFJ Bloomberg UFJ
2020 7 15 3 / 2020 7 16 Bloomberg US Corporate
Total Return Index Unhedged USD
%
2020 2021 2022
FOMC -6.5 5.0 3.5 1.8
-5.7 4.0 3.0
FOMC 9.3 6.5 5.5 4.1
11.0 8 6.8
FOMC 0.8 1.6 1.7 2.0
0.8 1.5 1.8
FOMC 1 1.5 1.7
1.3 1.3 1.6
GDP
FOMC 2020 6
FRB Bloomberg UFJ
2020 12 2022 12 7 16
31
-42-36-30-24-18-12
-606
12182430
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
20201-3
GDP13.6%
GDP
2016 6EU
2010-122008 9
2020
: %
0.20 0.03 0.16 0.29 0.96 0.64
1.35 1.52 0.28 0.46 3.12 6.15
( ) 0.22 0.50 0.05 0.00 0.11 0.37
0.28 0.31 0.30 0.84 1.35 0.30
0.49 0.12 0.09 1.01 1.33 1.20
0.73 0.58 0.11 0.54 2.28 1.74
0.14 0.55 0.22 0.92 0.28 0.29
0.00 0.21 0.23 1.35 2.32 6.26
0.43 0.08 1.16 0.49 0.38 1.25
0.25 0.41 0.05 0.05 0.23 0.01
0.72 0.00 0.41 0.05 4.45 0.18
: %
3.25 2.00 4.94 5.23 4.91 2.18
0.78 2.81 1.00 1.88 1.56 0.10
( ) 3.35 4.30 5.50 8.61 6.47 1.49
3.79 2.07 13.01 5.84 6.81 1.68
6.83 3.36 8.16 9.34 11.08 4.54
1.26 0.38 2.74 2.02 2.74 2.10
0.75 0.14 2.97 1.06 3.37 0.47
1.14 0.87 0.86 2.30 0.00 0.26
3.40 1.79 5.68 2.33 6.13 1.42
1.25 0.80 2.40 1.81 0.37 3.64
6.79 3.05 9.72 6.70 8.53 3.87
1-3
Eurostat UFJ
GDP
2020 1-32020 4-6 2021 4-6 UFJ
GVA
2020 1-3
Eurostat UFJ
32020 1-3 GDP 13.6%
2020 1-3
Eurostat UFJ
32
50
70
90
110
130
150(2015 =100)
0
20
40
60
80
10070
80
90
100
110
120
2020/2 2020/4 2020/6 ( / )
(2015 =100) ( )
( )
2110.3
5102.1
583.6
2103.1
( )( )
5
-60
-40
-20
0
20
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020( )
( )
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( )
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2020/2 2020/4 2020/6
( )
( / )
Eurostat UFJUFJ
7
GDP2020 7 13 5
2020 7 15
EC UFJ2020 6
Eurostat EC UFJ2020 5 6
33
GNI( 70% 2021-22 ) 6.8% 30% 2023
EU
3,1253,600
3,600 3,900
( )
6,725
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000( )
EU(a)EU
5,400
(b) EU7,500
(c) EU2021-27
(MMF)
10,743
EU(a)+(b)+(c)
23,643
EUEU
EU
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
Eurostat OECD UFJ
EU
5
10
15
20
25
30
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%) (%)
( )( )
( )( )
( )
( )
0
20
40
60(%)
EU 7,500 3,900
2020 7 21 7,500EC UFJ
EC UFJ
2020 62020 5 2020 3-5
2020 7 16(b) (c) 7 21
EC UFJ
188
1511259590
444431225
7 10
34
: 0.25%: 0%
: 0.5%2020 5 21 12 7 7
0.25%( -0.25%) 2021 7 9
2019 9 2021 3 7
[ ] 0.5%( -0.5%) [ ] 1.0%
( -0.5%) 3 ( 1 )
2019 11 2002020 1,200
1 3,500
PEPP 2021 6 2020
: 2 (P2G)
PELTRO
TLTRO
(APP)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2020/2 2020/4 2020/6
( )
PEPP
( / )
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2014 2016 2018 2020( )
(%)
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
2019/9/25 2019/12/18 2020/3/25 2020/6/24
3.4 977.2 1,149.8
13,084.3
( )
( / / )
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
ECB(+2%+2% )
( )
( )
ECB2020 6
(%)
( )
: 5 5
ECB2020 2 6
ECB 2022
ECB 6
ECB
ECB
ECB
ECB
ECB UFJ
ECB
Eurostat ECB UFJ
2020 6 EU
ECB UFJ ECB UFJ2020 5
:
PEPP:
ECB TLTRO
2020 7 PELTRO: TLTRO: PEPP:
35
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
010203040506070
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
%
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2013 2016 2019
%
29
GDP
2020 1-32020 4-6 2021 4-6 UFJ
UFJ
1-3 9
4-6 29
4
2020 7 6NAB UFJ
2020 6UFJ
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
20201-3
GDP1.2%
GDP2008 9
2011 12015 8
2020
36
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
10
/
3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
2
2020 7 16Bloomberg UFJ
2020 5UFJ
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
2020 5UFJ
2020 7 15
Bloomberg UFJ
1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020/02 2020/03 2020/04 2020/05 2020/06 2020/07
4973 28
/
GDP
176 0.9%661 3.3%
1,300 6.5%35 0.2%
1,050 5.3%101 0.5%
3,324 16.7%
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
10
/
3
2020 7 16Bloomberg UFJ
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1980 2010 2040
(15-64 )
(65 )
(0-14 )
( )
(%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
( )
14%
17%
2019
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
3
( )
54%
239%
2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2021-30
+5.1% 2041-50
+3.0%
( )
(%)
1991-2000:
+10.5%1981-90:
+9.4%
2001-10:
+10.6%
2019
2011-19:
+7.4%
2031-40
+4.1%
CEIC Bloomberg UFJ
( )
( )
GDP ( )
GDP ( )GDP ( )
GDP ( )
30
World Bank Group and DRC of State Council, PRC, “Innovative China, New Driver of Growth”5 2015 2020 2050 (World Population Prospects, the 2019 Revision )
2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
GDP
( : )
/GDP( : )
( )
(%)
30323436384042444648505254
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
( )
43%
39%
2019
38
2009
2009
2016
(BIS) CEIC Refinitiv UFJ
( )
( )GDP ( )
( )
2019 122019 12
2020 6
70
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
(%)
( )
2019
+0.8%
6.6%
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(1)(1)(1)
( )
) (1)(2)2011 1 =100
(1)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
( )
( )
20206
(61)
(2)
(7)
-10-8-6-4-202468
1012
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
( )
+2.5%
3.0%
2020 6
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
(%)
)
( )
1986-2008
2008 12 2019 1227.1 54.2
111.9 204.6) 93.9 149.3
17.9 55.2
( ) GDP (%)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(%)
) GDP
( )
( )
39
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
( )
1.8%
4.3%
2020 6
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
( )
)3
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
( )
GDP( )2020 4-6
+3.2%
( )
2020 6+4.8%
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
( )
3
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%) ( )
( : )
( : )
1-2 2
( : )
( )
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( )
)
1-3 6.8% GDP 4-6 +3.2%
GDP
CEIC Bloomberg UFJ
2020 62020 6
2020 6
(PMI)
40
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( )-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
( )
( )
)
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.80.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( : )
( )
( : )
( / )
( )
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2014 2016 2018 2020 ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(%)
(SLF)
( )
SHIBOR:SHIBOR 7
SHIBOR: 3
(PBoC) (SAFE) CEIC Bloomberg UFJ
2020 1-3 2020 62020 7 162020 7 16 2020 7 16 2020 6
(TSF)
024681012141618202224
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
12( )
12( )
(RRR)( )
(%) (%)
( )
4.35%
1.5%
12.5%
2020 7 16
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.80.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( : )
( )
( : )
( / )
( )
↕
41
2000
20002012
2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
( )
207558.5
20757.3
2015
GDP
IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook UFJ
5 201515 65
World Population Prospects UFJ
IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook UFJ
IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook UFJ
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1990 2000 2010
(%)
1980 1990 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1990 2000 2010
(%)(%)
1980 1990 2000
GDP
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(%)
: a
1980 1990 2000
: b
:a- b
42
2000( )
2020 Fitch (c) (e) (h) 2020 5 (d) (PPP)(GNI) (i) (j) (l) (m) ( )
( ) (n) == (o) /
-Fitch Ratings UFJ
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o)
GDP
GDP
(GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP )
(10 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ( )4,930 126 -0.1 44,420 -0.3 23.8 24.4 0.4 -14.3 257.6 3.3 -185.9 22.2 90.7 16.0
20,452 331 0.6 63,390 0.7 13.1 15.7 1.7 -19.0 123.6 -2.1 308.9 94.6 26.2 1.83,613 83 0.4 54,890 0.2 25.9 21.8 1.1 -8.6 73.6 5.0 -40.0 35.9 43.0 1.5
827 17 0.6 56,890 0.4 29.3 20.6 1.2 -8.7 61.1 2.6 -2.3 67.4 53.2 0.6248 6 0.2 47,970 0.5 20.2 22.7 0.8 -7.1 71.6 -2.3 163.5 68.3 40.1 1.4
2,466 65 0.3 46,360 -0.5 20.8 22.6 1.0 -11.7 119.0 -1.2 105.0 74.4 47.4 2.3478 12 0.5 50,940 -0.4 22.8 23.9 1.7 -8.6 116.0 -2.0 17.5 31.0 41.0 0.8349 5 1.2 65,290 3.2 58.0 38.4 0.3 -7.9 70.9 -2.5 -226.0 63.6 17.3 0.1
1,770 61 0.0 42,020 -1.1 19.4 17.1 0.6 -10.7 160.3 1.7 148.2 50.5 26.1 3.01,258 47 0.4 39,900 0.1 22.6 20.5 0.8 -11.9 115.7 0.8 202.4 62.8 29.8 1.7
221 10 -0.3 32,200 0.8 17.8 17.5 0.7 -6.4 133.4 -0.5 180.3 52.7 35.1 2.8188 11 -0.2 29,410 -0.7 11.0 12.3 0.4 -7.0 195.2 -6.7 457.6 19.4 42.8 1.5334 6 0.4 56,410 1.0 27.3 21.2 0.6 -7.0 43.9 6.7 -27.5 28.3 60.9 4.3488 10 0.7 53,560 0.3 26.6 24.4 1.6 -7.1 46.0 2.0 108.7 42.4 78.7 2.6
2,512 68 0.6 44,930 -0.5 14.0 16.4 1.7 -15.6 106.6 -3.0 104.9 121.8 57.0 2.1316 6 1.3 68,310 0.8 25.6 29.0 2.5 -0.4 44.5 -0.8 -67.1 66.1 52.2 5.3
1,535 38 1.1 47,490 0.1 18.6 21.7 1.6 -16.1 115.3 -2.5 145.5 36.8 8.4 1.61,311 25 1.2 49,980 1.4 25.8 26.4 1.6 -5.6 49.4 0.4 220.0 36.3 27.8 2.0
182 5 1.7 39,590 1.3 23.3 24.1 1.3 -8.5 33.3 -3.9 196.4 46.1 45.2 3.4340 6 0.8 94,500 1.0 47.6 27.0 -0.0 3.2 46.6 11.6 -186.1 29.7 51.3 6.9358 7 0.9 67,700 0.6 19.9 19.9 2.2 -11.0 42.3 6.5 -138.5 17.4 166.8 6.9631 24 0.1 - 2.1 33.1 23.8 0.8 -1.6 38.7 10.0 -321.1 4.3 325.3 17.0
14,740 1,439 0.5 18,140 5.5 46.0 42.4 2.4 -11.1 56.0 1.2 -122.4 8.6 234.7 15.21,570 52 0.4 40,090 2.0 33.4 32.0 1.0 -4.3 44.8 3.1 -79.9 15.0 213.4 8.7
350 32 1.4 30,600 3.3 26.1 24.3 1.4 -6.0 72.9 0.7 -18.9 11.8 97.4 5.3494 70 0.3 18,160 1.2 29.6 24.5 0.3 -3.9 45.2 2.7 -85.7 7.3 263.3 10.2
2,655 1,380 1.0 7,680 4.1 27.0 30.5 4.2 -11.5 84.6 -0.9 1.0 6.8 172.0 10.4367 110 1.5 10,720 4.5 12.2 24.0 2.9 -6.5 47.4 -2.3 -19.9 8.1 372.0 8.9
1,100 274 1.2 12,650 3.7 27.9 36.5 3.2 -6.6 37.0 -2.1 62.1 15.2 92.1 6.9346 98 0.8 7,030 6.1 26.8 28.4 3.2 -6.5 41.2 -2.2 -3.1 5.1 355.4 3.1
82 21 0.7 13,090 2.4 19.0 26.7 4.5 -9.3 94.4 -3.5 228.3 24.2 65.0 3.0226 11 0.2 37,580 1.0 25.0 35.1 2.1 -6.1 33.3 -1.8 -30.3 9.4 123.6 9.6366 9 1.7 39,830 1.7 21.3 20.0 0.0 -11.2 76.9 3.3 -159.1 11.4 306.5 14.3666 35 2.5 55,650 -0.5 37.2 27.3 1.3 -15.3 37.6 -8.6 -156.3 26.5 299.6 22.9550 38 -0.1 30,140 2.8 24.2 20.2 1.6 -4.4 52.6 0.3 32.6 17.1 92.0 4.5287 60 1.5 13,300 -0.8 16.7 14.4 4.8 -14.9 82.4 -1.9 71.5 16.4 86.4 6.4232 19 -0.6 27,520 2.9 20.7 22.2 2.1 -8.0 44.7 -2.8 39.5 20.3 106.4 4.9
1,560 147 0.1 26,470 0.0 31.3 19.4 4.2 -5.6 18.9 0.8 -153.4 16.3 518.5 16.263 7 -0.8 22,300 1.6 19.9 17.4 1.3 -4.0 25.8 2.4 -41.2 9.1 342.5 9.2
681 85 1.5 27,470 2.0 22.9 26.0 12.3 -6.5 39.1 -1.2 93.1 30.0 82.1 4.5143 10 -0.2 29,500 2.2 30.2 27.7 2.3 -4.0 72.1 -2.9 10.1 14.7 133.1 2.7227 19 1.3 24,190 0.2 22.8 21.3 2.8 -10.6 37.5 0.6 74.5 38.1 72.9 5.0
48 3 0.4 21,900 0.4 20.7 17.9 8.2 -6.2 74.2 -0.5 -79.2 20.1 277.3 11.8200 33 1.1 13,810 0.0 21.0 17.7 2.1 -9.7 36.7 -1.9 -119.3 21.5 255.4 16.3
1,035 129 1.2 19,360 -0.5 20.7 19.9 4.1 -5.9 53.8 -0.0 20.5 10.5 103.1 4.9271 51 1.4 14,490 0.5 15.3 20.1 4.3 -10.3 58.8 -4.5 85.0 31.1 98.0 9.0
1,342 213 0.8 15,820 -1.3 14.0 15.1 4.4 -15.8 94.9 -1.1 74.8 28.3 175.2 14.538 12 1.4 7,670 1.8 10.0 18.9 2.5 -9.6 55.7 -5.8 -6.9 16.5 405.2 5.9
376 45 1.0 19,820 -3.0 18.3 12.1 40.5 -9.1 102.9 0.2 -36.5 46.5 50.6 6.4
43
2.25%
4-6
2020 1-3 GDP 0.3% GDP3 1.8% 4 14.6% 2020
2 0.25% 3 0.50% 5 6 0.75%
BCB CEIC UFJ
Fitch Ratings2019 2020
2020 1-3
Fitch Ratings UFJ
IBGE (BCB) Bloomberg UFJIBGE UFJ
GDP
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
2020 1-3GDP
0.3%
( )
-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250300350400450
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
( )
( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
GDP( )
GDP( )
(%) (%)
( )
(%) (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
2020 6 17 2.25%
2020 6 +2.13%
44
200
20% 2020 11
PMI 50
BCB Bloomberg UFJ
Bloomberg UFJMarkit UFJ
PMI
2020 7 15
BCB Bloomberg UFJ
2020 7 15
2020 7 15 2020 6
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
2 3 4 5 6 7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
/
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
/
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ptpt
45
3
(Baa2 Baa3)
( )
Fitch Ratings2019 2020
(RBI) CEIC UFJ
2020 1-3
Fitch Ratings UFJ
GDP( )
CEIC UFJ CEIC UFJ
GDP 2014 7-9 2012 4-62020 1-3 2020 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 ( )
(%) (%)
GDP( )
GDP( )
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
GDP( )2004-05
2020 1-3GDP
+3.1%
( )
GDP( )2011-12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
( )
-350-300-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250300350
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( )
46
(RBI) 5 3 (4.4% 4%)( )
3RBI
( )
(RBI) Bloomberg UFJ(RBI) Bloomberg UFJ
CEIC UFJ (WHO)Bloomberg UFJ
: 2020 7 16 : 2020 7 3
2020 6 2020 2 1 7 15
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
(a)
(a+b+c)
( )
(b)
(c)
)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80 1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( ) ( / )
( )
( )
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( ) (RRP)
(%)
(MSF)
( )
2020 7 16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2020/2 2020/4 2020/6 ( / )
( )
( : )
( )
( : )
46
(RBI) Bloomberg UFJ
: 2020 7 16 : 2020 7 3
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80 1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( ) ( / )
( )
( )
47
7 2%
2020
( )
(BI) CEIC UFJFitch Ratings UFJ
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: 2020 6 : 2020 7 16
3
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Fitch Ratings2019 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 ( )
(%) (%)
GDP( )
GDP( )
-150-125-100
-75-50-25
0255075
100125150175
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( )
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
GDP 2020 1-3GDP
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( )0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
2016 8 19 (1 2):
( )
1(BI )
( )
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)
48
UFJ
2020 1-3 GDP +4.5% +0.6% 2018
2020 6
2020 6
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GDP
UFJ
UFJ
UFJ
2020 7 16 2020 1-3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
2020 6+12.62%+11.64%
+3 7%
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
( )
( )
-25
-20
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0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(%)
2020 1-3GDP
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( )
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
49
2013 2016 201943.5 43.8 44.216.7 15.7 16.2
11.5 10.8 8.45.9 6.4 6.44.3 3.5 3.42.3 2.6 2.52.6 2.4 2.5
--- 10.5 12.3
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=
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0.0
0.5
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2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
2030405060708090100110120130140
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
/
-10
2
2015 6 5125 85
%
100102104106108110112114116118120122124
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4003,600
2018 2019 2020
S&P500
/
20202 20
112 21
20203 9
101 17
50
0102030405060708090100110120130140-90
-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
+ +
1
UFJ
12
12
2020 5
Refinitiv UFJ
2020 2020 61-6
1973 21995 2011
2020 6
Refinitiv UFJ
-20
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
2
1+ + + 2020 5
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-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020
1973 2
%101
1982 10+19.4%
1985 2+18.2%
19801985 9
2015 7+18.6%
+6.9%
19954 19
79 75
201110 3175 35
1973 2
1987 2
/
51
21.03.27.27.39.912.814.2
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2019 2016 -2018
MSCI
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MSCI Refinitiv UFJ UFJ
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100110120130140150
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2020 32005 Major Dollar Index Advanced Foreign Economies AFE Dollar Index2006 =100 UFJ 2020 7 10
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65707580859095
100105110115120125130135
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
=100
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60708090
100110120130140150160170180190
1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
2006 =100
1995 8
" "
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1987 2
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65707580859095
100105110115
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
2013 =100
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2009 3
2017 1
2011 7
2018 3
2020 3
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
GDP +
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2013 2014-15 2015 20182020
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35
40
45
50
55
60
65
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2008 11
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2009 12
2017 9
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20406080
100120140160180200220240260
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
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-20-15-10
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101520
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2016 3
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2018 1
PMI
54
2013
GDP2020
IMF World Economic Outlook 2020 4UFJ
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IMF World Economic Outlook 2020 4UFJ
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MSCI KOKUSAI MSCI JAPAN MSCI EMS&P REIT S&P REIT
FTSE FTSE J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan EMBI Global DiversifiedJ.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified ICE BofAML US High Yield Index ICE BofAML US High Yield Index
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0100200300400500600700
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
0100200300400500600700
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
0100200300400500600700
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
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50
100
150
200
250
300
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35
MSCI S&P ICE Data Indices, LLC Bloomberg UFJHY
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MSCI S&P ICE Data Indices, LLC Bloomberg UFJ
10 %
2020
2015 20172018
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$MSCI KOKUSAI MSCI JAPAN MSCI EM S&P
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EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified HY ICE BofAML US High Yield Index HY ICE BofAML US High Yield Index
$ HY0.5% : +0.5% :
2020 6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$ HY6.9 40.5 54.8 41.3 10.3 15.7 32.7 11.2 27.9 4.5
HY HY4.0 39.2 54.6 28.3 2.1 14.3 20.1 1.1 25.7 1.2
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4
5
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11
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HY
%
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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0.610.02
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PER S&P500
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2020 7 EPS 12
Refinitiv UFJ
2020 7 PER 12
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
pt pt
EPS
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PER5
2.8 1.2 68.9 1.7 30.0 107.2 - 7.4% 40.2%2.5 2.3 21.0 11.0 24.5 21.1 29.6 21.6% 1.6%8.0 4.0 22.3 18.0 3.4 51.2 74.2 27.5% 11.0%
10.8 8.9 39.3 22.7 0.7 54.5 109.0 26.5% 22.6%7.0 5.3 19.7 26.7 1.6 2.0 8.2 23.9% 3.5%
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2020 7 20 PBR PER ROE 12 EPS 2019 2020 2021
MSCI EPS
Refinitiv UFJ
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
pt pt
EPS
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PER
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2020 7 PER 12
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100110120130140150160170180190
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
2005 1-3 =100
2007 7
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2009 3 66,469.95
1989 12 2938,957.44 2018 10 2
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2020 2 1229,568.57
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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2016 7 270.295
2020 3 90.543
050
100150200250300350
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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2000 10 2688.96
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1998 8 11147.66
020406080100120140160180200
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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FTSE FTSE FTSEFTSE FTSE Fixed Income LLC
FTSE Fixed Income LLCICE BofAML US High Yield Index ICE BofAML US Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index ICE BofAML US High YieldIndex ICE BofAML US Corporate Index ICE Data Indices, LLC ICE Data
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