© 2007 Governance Design Laboratory. All right reserved. 2007 Asian Energy Security Project Japan...

© 2007 Governance Design Laboratory. All right reserved.

2007 Asian Energy Security Project

Japan Energy Update& LEAP Japan Model 2007

AES Japan team(Kae Takase, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Tadahiro Katsuta)


GovernanceDesignLaboratory

Japan Energy Update



100150200250300350400450500550600

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

GDP TPS TFC CO2

Recent trends in Japanese energy, GDP, and CO2

■ GDP and primary energy is growing steadily.

■ CO2 emission is not increasing as much as primary energy.

■ Ratio of TPS/TFC is raising due to higher electricity share in final energy demand.

Trillion yen (2000 price), Mtoe, Mt-C

Primary energy

GDP

CO2

Final energy


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Energy and Economy

■ GDP is growing steadily.■ GDP Elasticity is lower than Oil Crisis

period.◆ Energy demand is not growing as GDP is.

%/year 65-73 73-79 79-90 90-00 00-05GDP 9.1% 3.7% 3.8% 1.2% 1.3%TPS 10.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 0.3%Elasticity

1.20 0.29 0.40 1.21 0.21

1st Oil Crisis2nd Oil Crisis

Bubble Economy collapsed

Source: Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics in Japan ‘07, EDMC/IEEJ


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Primary Energy Supply

■ Oil Coal, Gas, and Nuclear1990

Hydro4%

Renewables1%

Gas10%

Nuclear9% Coal

17%

Oil59%

2005

Hydro3%

Oil49%

Coal21%

Nuclear12%

Gas14%

Renewables1%


GovernanceDesignLaboratory GHG emission of Japan

■ Japan needs 8+6=14% reduction of 1990 GHG emission from 2005.

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

base

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

+8%

6%

Source: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan


GovernanceDesignLaboratory To meet Kyoto target

■ BAU seems to be greater than government expects. Current policy is not enough (comment by new prime minister).

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

base

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Gov. BAU Gov. Plan Kyoto(- 6%)

Gov. BAUGov. PlanKyoto (- 6%)

Source: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Major policy measures

■ More nuclear power ■ “Voluntary Action Plan” by Keidanren

◆ Keidanren: Japan Federation of Economic Organizations

■ Enhanced application of energy saving law (more appliances)

■ National announcements to arouse people to reduce emission from daily life

■ (No Emission Trading and Environmental Tax –under discussion)

Lack of an effective measure


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Japan ETS (Our analysis)

■ Research with Kyoto Univ. and WWF Japan.

■ Suggests ETS implementation in Japan■ Result of the model analysis by GDL

◆ 2-3% increase in electricity prices◆ 0.3% increase in wholesale prices◆ “Green technologies” will be activated, and

result in economic growth by 2015.


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Nuclear

■ Now, 55 plants (49.58GWe) are in operation◆ 1/3 of electricity, 12% of primary energy

■ By 2020, 67 plants (66.45GWe) are planned◆+13 plants, - 1 plant

■ Keep 30～ 40 % of electricity◆ Prolong operation from 40 years to 60

years◆ Existing LWR New LWR FBR

●FBR: fast-breeder [fast-breeding] reactor


GovernanceDesignLaboratory “Nuclear Nation” Plan

(2006.8)

Source: ”Nuclear Nation Plan” (2006.8)

New LWRs

prolonged operation of existing LWRs (60 years)

existing LWRs

(40 years)

FBR

Capacity10MWe

Fiscal Year

Long term plan for nuclear power



Under operation 55Under construction 2Planned 11

Hamaoka(5)

Onagawa(3)

Fukushima (6)Ⅰ (2)Fukushima (4)Ⅱ

Higashidori (1)Ⅰ (1)

Shika(2)

Kashiwazaki-kariwa(7)

Tsuruga(2)(2)

Mihama(3)

Genkai(4)

Shimane(2)(1)

Ikata(3)Sendai(2)

Tomari(2)(1)

Takahama(4)

Ohi(4)

Tokai(1)

Kaminoseki(2)

Ohma(1)

Higashidori (2)Ⅱ

Namiekodaka(1)

PWR BWR



List of nuclear power under operation

(10MWe) (10MWe) (10MWe) (10MWe)FukushimaⅠ 6 469.6 6 469.6FukushimaⅡ 4 440.0 4 440Genkai 4 347.8 4 347.8Hamaoka 4 361.7 1 138.0 5 499.7Ikata 3 202.2 3 202.2Kashiwazakikariwa 5 550.0 2 271.2 7 821.2Mihama 3 166.6 3 166.6Ohi 4 471.0 4 471Onagawa 3 217.4 3 217.4HigashidoriⅠ 1 110.0 1 110Sendai 2 178.0 2 178Shika 1 54.0 1 135.8 2 189.8Shimane 2 128.0 2 128Takahama 4 339.2 4 339.2Tokai 1 110.0 1 110Tomari 2 115.8 2 115.8Tsuruga 1 116.0 1 35.7 2 151.7

23 1936.6 28 2476.4 4 545 55 4958

PWR BWR ABWR Total



List of under construction, and planned

10MW Start construction

Start operation

Type of plant

Tomari-3 91.2 2003.11 2009.12 PWRShimane-3 137.3 2005.12 2011.12 ABWROhma 138.3 (2007.8) 2012.3 ABWRHigashidori-1(tepco) 138.5 2008.11 2014.10 ABWRFukushimaⅠ-7 138 2009.4 2013.10 ABWRFukushimaⅠ-8 138 2009.4 2014.10 ABWRKaminoseki-1 137.3 2009fy 2014fy ABWRTsuruga-3 153.8 2010.10 2016.3 APWRTsuruga-4 153.8 2010.10 2017.3 APWRHigashidori-2(tepco) 138.5 2011fy～ 2017fy～ ABWRKaminoseki-2 137.3 2012fy 2017fy ABWRNamiekodaka 82.5 2013fy 2018fy BWRHigashidori-2(tohoku) 138.5 2013fy～ 2018fy～ ABWR



Japan LEAP Model 2007


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Last study

■ BAU: follows IEEJ2002■ National Alternative:

◆ less nuclear, more renewables and energy efficient technologies

■ Regional Alternative: North East Asian regional cooperation◆ Pipeline oil and gas import, electricity import◆ Oil Refining on Commission with China◆ Regional Cooperation in Nuclear (Funding)◆ Cooperation in Energy Efficiency and Renewables (Funding

early implementation of technologies)


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Regional Alternative (1)

■ Pipeline Oil Import from Siberia◆ 1 million bbl/day, from 2010, $1.5/bbl

higher price■ Pipeline Gas Import from Sakhalin

◆ 6 million ton from 2015, price is set $3/GJ in 2005 (rise at the rate of crude oil price)

■ Electricity import from Sakhalin◆ 2GW from 2012, 4GW from 2014, 5

USC/kWh (fueled by natural gas)


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Regional Alternative (2)

■ Oil Refining on Commission with China◆ 10,000 bbl/day in 2004, increase to 60,000 bbl/day in 2010,

remain same until 2015, finish in 2016◆ Commission fee is set $3/bbl

■ Regional Cooperation in Nuclear◆ Funds

● Nuclear Research: 8 million USD from 2007 to 2015, raise to 100 million USD until 2025, raise to 300 million USD by 2030

● Waste Agreement: 8 million USD from 2006 to 2015, 25 million USD from 2016 to 2030

■ Cooperation in Energy Efficiency and Renewables ◆ Funds

● Energy Efficiency: cost $1/HH since 2006 (approx. 50 million USD/year), Renewables: cost 50 million USD/year to Elec. Gen.

◆ Effect● 2 years earlier implementation of technologies in energy

efficiency and renewables● Cost reduction by 10%



Result: Final Energy Consumption

■ Less demand in NA and RA by efficient technologies.

* National Alternative and Regional Alternative shows reduction in Final Energy Consumption due to implementation of energy saving technologies.

Unit: million GJ

4,287

3,138

3,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0004,2004,400

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

BAU N.A. R.A.


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Difference with BAU (primary)

Unit: million GJ

-222 -304-1,217 -1,264 -1,308 -1,339

-361 -506

-1,546 -1,691 -1,814 -1,912

314 308 930 947 912 859

-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000

010002000

NA RA NA RA NA RA

2010 2020 2030

Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro-p Nuclear Renewables Heat

■ Less nuclear and fossil fuel, more renewables.


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Scenario for AES 2007

MaxNational plan with 60 years

operation

BAU National plan with 40 years

operation

MinOnly 2 plants

under construction, 40 years op.

Succeed(Plutonium small)

Fail(Plutonium accumulates)

Nuclearpower

FBR &Pulthermal

Fossil fuel? Renewables?Efficient technologies?



0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

Max(60 years) BAU Min

Scenarios for nuclear power

■ Nuclear MAX(60years), BAU(40 years), and MIN(40 years, but only under construction).

66.45 GWe56.77 GWe

50.70 GWe New LWR?


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Reprocessing and FBR&pulthermal

■ Reprocessing plant◆ Rokkasho can reprocess 800ton/year.

■ FBR◆ National plan is to start commercial operation aro

und 2050.■ Pulthermal

◆ 16 ～ 18 plants by 2010


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Pulthermal

Onagawa(1)

TokaiⅡ

Hamaoka-4

Tomari(1)

Ohma

Shika(1)

Tsuruga(1)Ohi(1-2)Shimane-2

Genkai-3

Ikata-3

*TEPCO intends to use MOX fuel at 3 or 4 plants.


GovernanceDesignLaboratory Steps

■ Update current accounts■ Set up scenarios■ Run LEAP model and calculate energy

supply and demand, CO2 emission, and needs for fossil fuels in each scenario.

■ Calculate Plutonium accumulation and HLW&LLW. (outside the LEAP model)

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