NSRAA 2015 RETURNS&

2016 Forecast

2015 Returns Overview

Hidden Falls: Extremely Poor returns for all species

Medvejie: Very Strong chum; Good Chinook; Average coho

Deer Lake: Average coho Southeast Cove: First Adults; 3-year-old return

promising

2015 CHUM

Numbers : 2.8 Million ChumSite Troll Gillnet Seine Sport CR Rack Total

Deep Inlet

231,116 694,033 1,398,018 29 111,505 2,434,701

Hidden Falls

49,417 242,938 292,355

Southeast Cove

13,428 13,428

Haines 13,520 20,280 33,800

Total 231,116 707,553 1,447,435 13,467 354,443 2,774,284

8% 26% 52% 0% 14%

Chum returns compared to forecast

Deep Inlet: 182% Hidden Falls: 28%

Chum Marine Survival compared to SSRAA / DIPAC

Chum Marine Survival compared to SSRAA / DIPAC

NSRAA’s chum programs have struggled during the past 7 brood years, especially at Hidden Falls.

We are hoping that improved 3-yr-old returns in 2015 and early signs of success in our 4.0 production point to a turn-around.

Chum Marine Survival compared to SSRAA / DIPAC

Note: ranges are Brood years

2015 CHINOOK

Numbers : 30,000 ChinookSite Troll Gillnet Seine Sport CR Rack Total

Medvejie/ Deep Inlet

9,632 3,252 3,455 1,574 2,725 6,420 27,058

Hidden Falls

746 117 798 367 0 754 2,784

Total 10,378 3,370 4,254 1,941 2,725 7,174 29,842

35% 11% 14% 7% 9% 24%

NSRAA Troll Contribution

NSRAA contributed 10,321 Chinook to the SE Alaska Troll Fishery which is 3.8% of the total Chinook catch.

Estimated Value = $681,000

Deep Inlet Chinook Fishery

Deep Inlet harvest was 6,919 Chinook in 2015.

Estimated Value = $433,000

Hidden Falls Seine Chinook

Hidden Falls seine harvest was 678 Chinook in 2015.

Estimated Value = $53,000

2015 COHO

Numbers : 203,000 CohoSite Troll Gillnet Seine Sport CR Rack Total

Deer Lake

Cliff Lake

69,062

496

0 2,293 2,636 56,853 12,373 143,216

Hidden Falls

15,698 130 807 889 13,595 14,336 45,455

Medvejie / Deep Inlet

9,498 681 2,118 983 0 1,075 14,354

Total 94,754 810 5,217 4,508 70,448 27,784 203,521

47% 0.4% 3% 2% 35% 14%

Coho returns compared to forecast

Coho Marine Survival

2015 VALUE

2015 COMMERCIAL VALUE

Chum; 8501722.2110

0733; 83%

Coho; 595761.713;

6%

Chinook; 1152317.394; 11%

2015 Species Splits

Chum

Coho

Chinook

2015 Value – includes cooperative chum projects• $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment

2015 COMMERCIAL VALUE

Troll; 2070326.68;

20%

Seine; 5438384.2010073

4; 53%

Gillnet; 2741090.43

7; 27%

2015 Gear Splits

Troll

Seine

Gillnet

2015 Value – includes cooperative chum projects• $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment

2015 COMMERCIAL VALUE

History by gear – includes cooperative chum projects• $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment

2015 COST RECOVERY

CR = Regular cost recovery (fish sales only) .Assess = Hidden Falls assessment. $102,000 in 2012 / $1,793,000 in 2013 / $364,500 in 2014 / $0.00 in 2015.

NSE FUND (DIPAC FUNDING) reduced CR significantly for the third year in a row:$1.5 M in 2013 / $2.5 M in 2014 / $2.0 M in 2015

2015 COST RECOVERY

Regular cost recovery (fish sales only) : $714,524Initial cost recovery harvest at Southeast Cove...Mixed NSRAA and Gunnuk Creek Hatchery Production… We split revenue with State of Alaska Division of Economic Development (DED) based on otolith sampling… NSRAA portion = 21% of total.

$102,041.

80

$100,238.65

$101.00 $468,377.75

$43,764.59

CR Fish

Hidden Falls Chum

Hidden Falls Coho

Medvejie Chinook

Medvejie Chum

Mist Cove Coho

SE Cove Chum

2016 FORECAST - CHUM

Deep Inlet chum – 1,782,000 projection is about 75% of the 2015 return Hidden Falls chum – 1,433,000 projection is about 490% of the 2015 return. Let’s hope the 4.0 data and 3-year-old numbers equate to a large 4-yr-old return in 2016.

Southeast Cove chum – 165,700 projection. All fry were 4.0’s; strong 3-yr-old return.

Haines chum – 31,000 (est. 33,800 in 2015)

2016 FORECAST - CHINOOK

Medvejie Chinook – 31,200 projection is about 4,000 fish above 2015 return

Hidden Falls Chinook – 5,400 projection is about 2,800 fish above 2015 return

2016 FORECAST - COHO

Deer Lake Coho – 150,000 - projection is about 103% of 2015 return

Hidden Falls Coho – 194,000 - projection is about 425% of 2015 return

Medvejie/Deep Inlet Coho – 62,000 - projection is about 280% of 2015 return

Banner Lake (BY 13) fry stocking - 2,000Cliff Lake (BY12) fry stocking - 2,000 (500 in 2015)

OTOLITHS

3,3,3H

OTOLITHS

3,3,3HThis otolith mark was on 49% of the chum in the 2015 Deep Inlet/ Bear Cove return. It is the mark put on the DIMV11 group: DI – Medvejie stock – BY 2011.

OTOLITHSEach rearing group is given a unique mark. We found marks from 18 NSRAA release groups in 2015 sampling.

Mark ID >

2015 Age Class>

OTOLITHSEach rearing group is given a unique mark. We found marks from 18 NSRAA release groups in 2015 sampling.

Mark ID >

2015 Age Class>

HF stock rel. at DI Med stock rel. at Bear Cove

Med stock rel. at DI

OTOLITHS

?? Questions, Questions ??

1. What is the contribution of the Hidden Falls stock?

2. What is the contribution of the Medvejie stock at Deep Inlet? Bear Cove?

3. How do survival rates compare for the 4.0 groups vs. the regular groups so far? Is the 4.0 program working?

4. Do any Deep Inlet fish return to the Medvejie Rack?

5. How many Bear Cove released fish are intercepted in the Deep Inlet and Troll fisheries?

OTOLITHS

?? Questions, Questions ??

6. What is the age composition of the return?

7. How does the age comp compare with scale aging?

8. Do Bear Cove releases survive at the same rate as Deep Inlet releases for the Medvejie stock?

9. How many non-NSRAA fish are in the fishery?

OTOLITHS

?? QUESTIONS ??

Prior to otolith marking, we could only make educated guesses at best for many of these questions.

In most cases we could only speculate.

Otolith sampling gives us a much better grasp on what is happening with different stocks, release sites, and rearing strategies as well as insight into the makeup of the fisheries.

OTOLITHS

2015 Hidden Falls stock contribution at Deep Inlet.

OTOLITHS

2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Bear Cove and Deep Inlet release groups.Note “LL” designates Late-Large or what we call the 4.0 program.

OTOLITHS

2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Deep Inlet release groups.

1.2 million BY11 fours - Medvejie “Regular” rearing!

146,000 BY12 LL 3-year-old return from 8 million release 58,000 BY12 Reg. 3-year-old return from 22 million release

DIMV11 - This single group = 51% of DI return; value estimate of $4.2M, or 41% of total 2015 $10.25M commercial value for all species.

DIMV11 –Regular rearing24.2 million fry1.55g release sizeRel. dates (6) from 4/30-5/9/2012

OTOLITHS

2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Bear Cove release groups.

120,000 BY11 fours - Medvejie “Regular” rearing.

78,000 BY11 LL 4-year-old return from 4.6 million release119,000 BY11 Reg. 4-year-old return from 14.4 million release

77,000 BY12 LL 3-year-old return from 4.6 million release 9,600 BY12 Reg. 3-year-old return from 13.5 million release

OTOLITHS

2015 Compare 4.0 and Regular release groups

Age 3 (BY12) Bear Cove: 9:1Age 3 (BY12) Deep Inlet: 8:1

Age 4 (BY 11) Deep Inlet 2:1

OTOLITHS

Rough estimate of final marine survival of BY11 Bear Cove chum based on 4-year-old return.

OTOLITHS

Other insights:

73 % of Bear Cove fish were caught in the fishery

2% of Deep Inlet fish were caught at the rack

OTOLITHS

2015 Hidden Falls

Despite the poor return, we did gain some insight into rearing strategies.

OTOLITHS

2015 Hidden Falls

4.0 outperformed regular rearing at both sites for both BYs with 4.0 releases.

OTOLITHS

2015 Hidden Falls

4.0 outperformed regular rearing at both sites for both BYs with 4.0 releases….by a much wider margin at Takatz.

OTOLITHS

2015 Hidden Falls

Rough estimate of final marine survival for BY11 groups.

OTOLITHS

Other insights:

Takatz fish will find their way back to the hatchery: 57% of the rack fish were Takatz fish.

OTOLITHS

2015 Hidden Falls

Comparison between release sites.

OTOLITHS

SE COVE

First 3-yr olds returned in 2015

Outperformed KAKE BY 12 by a wide margin.

OTOLITHS

2015 CREW

Duncan Coltharp

Zachery Papovich

Ben Adams