Competitiveness Monitor: An integrated foresight platform for the German leading-edge cluster in

logistics

Heiko von der Gracht*, Philipp Ecken*, Christoph Markmann*, Inga-Lena Darkow*, Gianluca De Lorenzis‡, Eckard Foltin†, David Hartmann†,

Nadine Helfenbein‡, Michael Münnich§, Christopher Stillings†

* Center for Futures Studies (CEFU), EBS Business School, Germany

† Bayer MaterialScience AG, Germany‡ dilotec GmbH, Germany

§ BrainNet Supply Management Consultants GmbH, Germany

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 1

Competitiveness Monitor

1

2

3

3a

Germany‘s leading-edge cluster in logistics

The need for futures orientation in logistics

The Competitiveness Monitor

Futures Platform

Trend Database

Future Workshop

Prediction Market

Conclusion

Agenda

3b

3c

3d

4

CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 2

Competitiveness Monitor

The “EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr” is Germany’s biggest research initiative in the area of logistics and supply chain management.

The content of this presentation is based on the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A). Project duration: 06/2010 – 05/2013. Responsibility for the content is with the author(s).

“EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr” • Started in June 2010 and runs for 5 years• Sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research• 120 companies, 11 universities and research institutes collaborate• 30 research projects in the are of logistics and supply chain management• 100 concrete innovations with an estimated market potential of 2 bn. EUR

Secure tomorrow’s individuality, in the sense of mobility and distribution, with 75% of today’s resources

aspires

(ten Hompel, 2010)

Germany’s leading-edge cluster in logistics (1/2)

CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 3

Competitiveness Monitor

The cluster tackles three central challenges through seven innovation schemes.

(Source: ECM, 2010)

Manage resources efficiently

Secure urban supply

Facilitate individuality

Germany’s leading-edge cluster in logistics (2/2)

4. Logistics-

as-a-service

3. Flexible logisticsystems

2. Urban supply

5. Freight

transportationmanagement

1. Environmental

focus

6. Structural

competence

Three central challengestackled through

Seven innovation schemes

7. Activation of cluster potentials

• share complementary resources and knowledge within the cluster

• enable cooperation between parties in the cluster

• provide future-relevant knowledge and tools to enable robust decision making

CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 4

Competitiveness Monitor

The future of the logistics industry is characterised by many upcoming challenges that require innovation and future oriented planning.

The need for futures orientation in logistics (1/2)

Challenges for logistics (abstract)

Increased volatility and uncertainty requiring innovation and future oriented planning.

• Globalization: Supply chains have become longer and more complex. (Meixell and Gargeya 2005; Jain and Benyoucef 2008; Bhatnagar and Teo 2009)

• Competition: Factors like Globalization, outsourcing and pluralistic society amplify this. • Customer expectations: Logistics has to be responsive (e.g. through added values) to

adapt quickly to current market demands. (Dominic, Goh et al. 2010; Gunasekaran, Lai et al. 2008; Briggs, Landry et al. 2010)

• Technology: Logistics act in complex networks of independent, but interdependent organizations, which require intelligent solutions. (Jain and Benyoucef 2008; Bhatnagar and Teo 2009)

lead to

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Competitiveness Monitor

In best practice, both innovation management and futures research are linked and contribute to each other.

The need for futures orientation in logistics (2/2)

• Drivers for growth and competitive advantage across all industries. (Chapman, Soosay et al. 2003)

• Adapt services, products, and processes to changing customers and markets. (Yazdanparast, Manuj et al. 2010)

• Help to reduce logistics cost and allow for differentiation.

Being competent in both innovation management and futures research is perhaps the most important source of competitive advantage for organisations in tomorrow’s knowledge economy (Hines 2002; von der Gracht, Vennemann et al. 2010)

The importance of innovations in logistics

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Competitiveness Monitor

The Competitiveness Monitor (CoMo) is a joint research project aiming to create and convey future-oriented knowledge within the “EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr”

The Competitiveness Monitor (1/6)

• Comprises a future-oriented IT platform where science, business, and politics co-operate.

• Addresses the need for innovative foresight methods in strategic logistics planning.

• Facilitates this in an innovative environment provided by the leading-edge cluster.

CoMo is not only an innovation by itself but establishes a direct link between the futures field, the cluster, and innovation management for 100 innovations of the future.

1. Stimulating co-operation among cluster stakeholders. 2. Providing educative information on futures studies

and teaching future skills;3. Incentivizing stakeholders to systematically deal with their futures

and to foster innovation; 4. Creating, linking, and processing information about future macro-

and microeconomic developments in logistics and its environment;

4 major challenges

for CoMo

CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 7

Competitiveness Monitor

The CoMo solves these challenges by integrating and interlinking three foresight tools in a Futures Platform.

The Competitiveness Monitor (2/6)

1. Futures Platform (+ education package)

4. Prediction Markets

2. Trend Database

3. Future Workshop

Transfer

Link

Project status:

Requirement Analysis

CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 8

Competitiveness Monitor

1. Futures Platform (+ education package)

4. Prediction Markets

2. Trend Database

3. Future Workshop

Transfer

Link

Our Futures Platform is intended to serve as the users’ personalized login portal.

The Competitiveness Monitor (3/6)

• Allows interactive individualization according to interest by e.g. saving trend favourites.

• Enables direct communication.• Links the three applications Trend Database,

Future Workshop, and Prediction Market.• Provides training content for self-studies.

The flexible and individualized structure offers an individual decision making environment.

Newcomers to foresight can use the platform to build up foresight competencies and reduce uncertainty in future-oriented decisions.

The cooperative nature of the platform shall increase transparency and access to knowledge for all stakeholders in the cluster.

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Competitiveness Monitor

Our Trend Database concept represents the quantitative and qualitative pool of future-relevant knowledge that is provided to and provided by the cluster actors.

The Competitiveness Monitor (4/6)

1. Futures Platform (+ education package)

4. Prediction Markets

2. Trend Database

3. Future Workshop

Transfer

Link

• Query future-oriented numbers, data, and facts to specific logistics-related topics.

• Query results filtered through a chosen ‘flight level’ e.g. geographical scope.

• Ability to export or save information in a personal space.• Co-creation and lead users involve in sustaining relevancy of future-relevant knowledge.

(Kane and Fichman 2009; Leimeister, Huber et al. 2009) • A three-dimensional semantic linkage architecture links trends, tools, and external

information.

The linkage of data points can build a more holistic picture of the future.

The possibility to acknowledge trends early and systematically creates significant competitive advantages for the cluster in the field of logistics.

Combining expert foresight knowledge and wisdom of the crowds can build a holistic construct of the future for a stakeholder in the cluster.

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Competitiveness Monitor

Our Future Workshop app represents the element of CoMo where trends are systematically projected into individual futures and recommended actions can be derived.

The Competitiveness Monitor (5/6)

1. Futures Platform (+ education package)

4. Prediction Markets

2. Trend Database

3. Future Workshop

Transfer

Link

• Web-based solution of the four phases (preparation, critique, fantasy, implementation) of a future workshop (“Zukunftswerkstatt”). (Jungk and Muellert 1988)

• Best practices from elements of scenario planning, roadmapping, backcasting, and Imagineering. (De Laat 2004; Quist and Vergragt 2006; Nijs 2009; von der Gracht and Darkow 2010; Höjer, Gullberg et al. 2011)

• Digitally collaborate in global or private workshop environments. • Results of Future Workshops are e.g. recommended actions.

Spatial boundaries in a process of problem identification, innovation, and creativity towards problem solving are overcome.

Future Workshops will facilitate a future-oriented strategic logistics planning.

Decision makers can actively shape their futures combining qualitative and quantitative information to build a robust decision space.

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Competitiveness Monitor

Our Prediction Market app will complement Future Workshops and the Trend Database by providing an innovative foresight method that generates futures knowledge.

The Competitiveness Monitor (6/6)

1. Futures Platform (+ education package)

4. Prediction Markets

2. Trend Database

3. Future Workshop

Transfer

Link

• Bet on the outcome of future events in a virtual environment.

• Users lose and gain virtual credits according to their forecast accuracy, which incentivizes participation and accuracy. (Coles, Lakhani et al. 2007; Ho and Chen 2007)

• Global and private Prediction Markets will assess company specific as well as cluster related topics.

Prediction Markets will represent an innovative, flexible, and robust forecasting method that incentivizes and systematically supports in future-oriented decisions

Potential benefits from investment decisions, idea management, or market developments can be evaluated effectively and cooperatively.

A link with the Trend Database increases overall future-knowledge in the cluster.

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Competitiveness Monitor

The CoMo solves these challenges by integrating and interlinking three foresight tools in a Futures Platform.

Conclusion

In the context of the ambitious innovations developed in the leading-edge cluster it is essential to provide a platform that utilizes the cluster’s unique combination.

130 partners from business, academia, and politics may share complementary resources, specifically may share knowledge that is relevant for their future-oriented decisions.

The CoMo will provide an IT environment that integrates three innovative foresight tools in order to aid in strategic planning and future-oriented decision making for logistics and related topics.

The combination of a Trend Database, Future Workshops, and a Prediction Markets will facilitate cooperation, will provide a shared future-relevant knowledge basis, and will provide individual future-oriented decision support.

CoMo contributes to the superior aim of the leading-edge cluster by fostering stakeholders’ future-oriented decision quality.

CoMo contributes to the sustainable success of innovations and competitive advantages of stakeholders in the leading-edge cluster in logistics.

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Competitiveness Monitor

References

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