3
Federal Order Reform
$1.13 Support Price
$1.72
$1.09
Imputed Cheddar Values From Futures Prices
Mar ′10: $1.48 Apr ′10: $1.46 May ′10: $1.48
4
Cheddar, Butter NFDM Dry Whey
2009
Whey FMMO Make Allowance: 19.91¢
Dry Whey (4/21/07): 79.33¢
2009
5
IOFC for cow producing 65 lbs/day
$/cow/day
IOFC = Income Over Feed Costs
Ration (lb/d) Corn: 22.2 SBM: 2.52 Hay: 25.5
With MILC Payments
Average
6
000 Herds Mil. Lbs
Number of Farms Aug 2003: 16,264 Jan 2010: 12,929
Wisconsin Milk Production
Wisconsin Licensed Dairy Herds
Annual Y-O-Y Changes WI CA Cows: +0.32% -4.13% Prod: +3.25% -3.85%
Yield growth > cow # Cow # growth > yield
Dec ′09: 252,000 less U.S. cows than Dec ′08
7
Wisconsin: 4.3% ↑ Over Dec ′08 California: 4.7% ↓ From Dec ′08
2009: -0.11% ↓ from 2008
1st Drop Since ′04
10
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service
Exports = Imports
1998-2006 Average Quarterly Deficit: $117 Mil 2007-3rd Qrt 2008 Average Quarterly Surplus: $268 Mil
Qrt 2, 2008: $481 Mil
11
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service
Average % NFDM: 38.3 Whey: 39.1 Butter: 3.6 Cheese: 1.8
12
Data as of Feb. 5th
$/cwt
Based on Feb. 5th Class III futures settle prices Average Mailbox
2007: $19.00 2008: $18.63 2009: $12.21 2009*:$12.85
Avg Predicted Mailbox: $15.91 Avg. Futures Settles: $14.67
Basis = $1.24
14
$/cwt $/bu
Data as of Feb. 5th
Class III ↑ relative to grain prices after April
$/cow/day Ration (lb/d) Corn: 22.2 SBM: 2.52 Hay: 25.5 Jan. ′00 – Oct ′09: $6.82