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Stage Two Assess Threat and Risk

Gold Public Order Commander

4.4

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Stage Two

• What are our priorities?• Probability• Seriousness• Imminence• Police only problem• Control measures• Hierarchical mitigation

Assess Threatand Risk and

Develop a Working Strategy

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What is a Threat?

‘Threat may be summarised as the source of actual or potential harm (i.e. anything that can cause harm)’

ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

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The Purpose of a Threat Assessment

The purpose of a threat assessment is to provide commanders with clarification of:

• What is known• The likely threats• The police responsibility for mitigation.

A threat assessment informs the proportionality of the police response

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Threat Assessment

• Who feeds it?

• Do we use SAG to oversee threat assessment?

• No one nationally agreed model

Officers are expected to exercise professional judgement

ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

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Threat Assessment

The threat posed can be viewed in these terms:

• Identification (of the individuals)• Intent (to cause harm)• Capability (to cause harm) and our ability to determine accurately.

Also identified should be the required:• Immediacy of response necessary.

Identification

Capability Intent

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What is a Risk?

• Risk refers to the possibility of harm occurring, and has been widely accepted as the measurement of both likelihood and impact of an event which could cause harm

• Impact x Likelihood = Risk

ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

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M H VH VH VH

M H VH VH VH

M M H H H

L L M M M

L L L L L

Catastrophic5

Significant4

Moderate3

Minor2

Insignificant1

Negligible1

Rare2

Unlikely3

Possible4

Probable5

IMPACT

LIKELIHOOD

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What is a Strategy?

‘The overall intention of managing and resolving a police operation.’

ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

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The Purpose of a Strategy

The purpose of a strategy is to establish a set of objectives relevant to the knowledge of the

situation and the analysis of the threats and risks presented.

ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

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The Strategy should…….

• Be unique for each incident

• Avoid generic strategies

• Be communicated to all personnel employed on an event

• Be written in plain language to avoid confusion

• Be recorded as part of the audit trail with the rationale.

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The Strategy should……

• Give careful consideration to the potential liabilities that may be incurred before defining strategic intentions that assume roles for which the police may have no responsibility

• Be regularly reviewed, particularly where a change/handover of command occurs

• Include event specific operational matters or constraints, if Gold considers that they are relevant to the strategy intentions

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The Strategy should include:• Create ‘headline’ strategic intentions which reflect

the role of the police, local strategic objectives and set the tone (policing style)

• Should identify anticipated outcomes

• Partners

• Include narratives to explain each intention.

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Examples of Strategic Intentions• To provide a lawful and proportionate policing response

• To maintain public order

• To prevent crime and provide a reasonable and proportionate response if crime is committed

• To work together with event organisers / participants and other agencies to minimise criminal activity and anti-social behaviour associated with the event

• To provide an appropriate counter-terrorism response and security advice, commensurate to the threat level

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Questions