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© Crown copyright Met Office
Case Study: Real world application of crop model impacts projections
© Crown copyright Met Office
Outline
• Overview of impacts and adaptation techniques
• CASE 1: Seasonal forecasting in Senegal
• CASE 2: Irrigation in India
• CASE 3: Crop shifting in southern Australia
• Summary
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Impacts and Adaptation Techniques
• On short timescales, some regions benefit from warming (i.e. mid/high latitudes)
• On longer timescales, all regional projections suggest a decrease in crop yield and agricultural productivity
• Possible adaptation techniques:• A change in variety or species of crop
• Shift from rain-fed to irrigated crops
• Use of seasonal forecasts for annual crop management
• Improved water management
• Diversify income with other agricultural activities
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CASE 1: Using probabilistic seasonal forecasts in Senegal
• 80% of Sahel population involved in agriculture
• Ongoing project in Kaffrine, Senegal, within the peanut growing basin• Testing use of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for managing
climate risks within agricultural sector
• Training local farmers in the use of scientific data for crop management
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CASE 1: Using probabilistic seasonal forecasts in Senegal
• Process: Selection of farmers provided with July-Sept 2011 seasonal forecast (suggested less rain than 2010)• Allowed farmers to make adjustments to crop variety and planting
time (i.e. short cycle crop vs. long cycle crop)
• Results:• Farmers that had access to seasonal forecast had improved crop
yields vs. those that didn’t
• Expressed need for finer-scale seasonal climate information
• Seasonal climate forecasts show considerable potential to improve agricultural management and livelihoods for local farms
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CASE 2: CRM of plantation crops in Kerala, India
• Large altitudinal range allows for wide range of regional crops
• Due to erratic rainfall during monsoon season, high risk of both waterlogging and severe water stress
• Two CRM measures now in place:• Effective management of irrigation
• Weather forewarning and dissemination
• Detailed field experiments have been performed, using various irrigation plans for Kerala coconut growers
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CASE 2: CRM of plantation crops in Kerala, India
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CASE 2: CRM of plantation crops in Kerala, India
• Alterations to irrigation practices, combined with access to agricultural advice, show high potential for increasing crop yields in southern India.
© Crown copyright Met Office
CASE 3: CRM through species alteration and regional relocation in Australia
• Regional rainfall projections highly variable across Australia• While southern Australia is projected to become drier, the frequency
and intensity of rainfall events is projected to increase in northern regions
• Combined with ongoing water-policy reform, this has triggered robust CRM strategies in the agricultural sector
© Crown copyright Met Office
CASE 3: CRM through species alteration and regional relocation in Australia
• With a shift towards wheat (less profitable than rice), off-farm activities will be required to sustain a reasonable income
• Potential CRM strategy: relocate rice production to regions with plenty of water, such as northern Australia
• Example of where adaptations have been made, but they will not be enough to offset the risks and impacts of climate change
• Due to increased water stress, farmers in S. Australia have shifted from rice to wheat, but a regional shift in rice crops could be necessary for future sustainability.
© Crown copyright Met Office
Summary
• Without CRM techniques, crop yields and agricultural productivity are projected to strongly decrease in the next century
• Some adaptation techniques are already being put to use (i.e. seasonal forecasts in Senegal, irrigation practices in India)
• Other regions will require more robust CRM activities, such as the relocation of entire cropping activities to more suitable conditions (i.e. rice production in Australia)
© Crown copyright Met Office
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