© Crown copyright Met Office

WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual

Prediction

Adam Scaife (Met Office) & Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3)

(WGSIP co-chairs)

Near term climate predictions for GFCS:WGSIP with WMO Global Producing Centres

See also the WMO Lead Centre for long range forecast multi-model ensembles: www.wmolc.org

WCRP Grand Challenge #1

WMO Global Producing Centres

See also the WMO Lead Centre for long range forecast multi-model ensembles: www.wmolc.org

(1st) International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction

Toulouse May 13-16, special thanks to George Boer and Laurent Terray

http://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/CIMA CHFP Data Server

CHFP database “CMIP for seasonal forecasting”

NAO prediction skill

Skill of NAO forecasts increases with ensemble size

Signals to noise is small so large ensembles are needed!

All models show some skill and the predictability of the NAO is much higher than in previous operational systems

© Crown copyright Met Office

Stratosphere Historical Forecast Projecta WGSIP-SPARC project

Amy Butler, Adam Scaife, Alexander Lawes, Natalia Calvo, Andrew Charlton-Perez + WGSIP members

High Top HindcastsParallel to WGSIP-CHFPExtended modelsInitialising extra atmosphere, better represented stratosphere

Integrations

• 4 month lead times (1st November and 1st May start dates)

• 2 seasons (DJF and JJA)

• Case study years: 1989 onwards

• At least 6 members per year, preferably more

Land surface: Impact of initialisationRevisiting GLACE2: Difference in the correlation of the ensemble-mean near-surface temperature from two experiments, one using a realistic and another a climatological land-surface initialisation. Results for EC-Earth2.3 started every May over 1979-2010 with ERAInt and ORAS4 initial conditions and a sea-ice reconstruction.

C. Prodhomme (IC3)

May (first forecast month) JJA (forecast months 2-4)

J. García-Serrano (IPSL)

IceHFP: Predictions of DJF NAO with EC-Earth2.3 started in November over 1979-2010 with ERAInt and ORAS4 initial conditions. Two sets, one initialised with realistic (top) and one with climatological (bottom) sea-ice initial conditions.

Sea ice: Impact of initialisation

WGSIP WGCMDCPP

Decadal Prediction

Decadal PredictionsCMIP5 Protocol

CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP oversee this frameworkPart of our discussions is to think about ‘What next?’Working with Veronika Eyring, George Boer et al on CMIP6

CMIP5 decadal predictions

Predictions (yr 2-5) from 6 CMIP5 systems

Initialized solid, uninitialised dashed

Global-mean T and Atlantic multi-decadal variability

Correlations and RMSE below

BUT

Outstanding issues with protocol

See proposal for a joint WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR for CMIP6….

Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013) Forecast time

Real Time Decadal Forecast Exchange

Doug Smith, Adam Scaife and the decadal prediction community….

15th session of the WMO Commission for Climatology recommended action to start the coordination and exchange of decadal predictions

Proposal went out to various groups to exchange decadal prediction information

research exercise – we can learn a lot from this

prevent over-confidence from a single model

equal access, ownership and recognition

Uni. Tokyo – Kimoto Masahide , MRI – Masayoshi Ishii, SMHI – Klaus Wyser,Colin Jones, KNMI – Wilco Hazeleger, IC3 – Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Virginie Guemas, MPI – Daniela Matei, Wolfgang Muller, Holger

Pohlman, CCCMA – George Boer, Bill Merryfield, UKMO-Hadley – Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, READING UNI – Ed Hawkins, NRL – Judith Lean,

David Rind, CERFACS – Christophe Cassou, IPSL – Juliette Mignot

Real Time Decadal Forecasts: 2012-2016 relative to 1971-2000

Forecasts Effect of initialisation

Smith et al, Clim. Dyn., 2012

Decadal Prediction for CMIP6: a proposal

WGSIP, WGCM & CLIVAR developing decadal prediction expts for CMIP6 via Decadal Climate Prediction Panel (George Boer)

WGSIP activities summary

Growing number of seasonal hindcasts in the CHFP database (CMIP for seasonal)

Exciting results for extratropical winter predictability and a clear role for the stratosphere

Increasing interest in the initialisation of sea ice, and revisiting land-surface initialisation

Decadal hindcasts provided to CMIP5 and analyses appearing in literature

Real time decadal predictions being exchanged (Smith et al 2012)

A draft decadal prediction protocol for CMIP6 is being developed jointly by WGSIP/WGCM/CLIVAR following agreement amongst these groups via the Decadal Climate Prediction Panel

Links to S2S

Teleconnections between tropics and extratropics

Drift/initial shock and verification within the first month

Data dissemination

Links to GFCS