2004 SOFI

For the Millennium Project Planning Committee

July 30, 2004

.

SOFI Evolution

Year 1: Initial experiment. Projections were single value.Year 2: Trend Impact Analysis introduced; judgments made by staff. Year 3: Sensitivity test involving high AIDS, proliferation and WMD by terrorists.Year 4: Judgments made by panel; node SOFI's.

Changes From 2003 SOFI

For the SOFIGlobal panel estimates of best and worst values of 20 variables and their weightsMore precise definitions of some variablesUse of new or improved sources for the historical dataUpdated historical data

For the TIA's:Global panel judgments about future developments that could affect the variables.Staff synthesized developments into a most important setNew baseline forecasts

Identified levels of uncerainty

Inputs From The Global Panel

Round 1 asked for inputs for SOFI:Best and Worst outlook for 20 SOFI variablesWeights for the best and worst cases

Developments that could change the course of the SOFI variables

Round 2 asked for judgments about likelihood, impact and timing of the developments

Demography

Sectoral Demographics

Latin America (101)39.1%

Europe (70)27.1%

Asia & Oceania (51)19.8%

North America (28)10.9%

Middle East & North Africa (2)0.8%

Africa (6)2.3%

Univeristy (91)29.4%

NGO (54)17.4%Ind. Consultant (41)

13.2%

Corporation (42)13.5%

Government (49)15.8%

Other(24)7.7%

IO (9)2.9%

Regional Demographics

Projections and Weights

Infant Mort 86.7 52.4 30.0 50.0 3.706 3.714

Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries 2382.0 2740.0 3,000.0 2,775.0 3.726 3.842

GNP per capita 4,335 5,675 6,525.0 5,700.0 3.397 3.574

Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Water 60.7 80.9 90.0 80.4 4.015 3.967

CO2 atmospheric, ppm 337.9 367.5 370.0 400.0 4.094 4.231

Annual population additions millions 80.6 73.9 60.0 72.0 3.770 3.900

Percent unemployed 5.6 7.0 6.0 9.0 3.636 3.846

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) 64.9 78.0 85.0 80.0 4.095 4.131

Annual AIDS deaths (millions) 0.00 3.10 2.0 5.0 3.714 3.741

Life Expectancy 56.8 63.8 70.0 64.0 3.500 3.531

Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) 31 25 15.0 30.0 4.098 4.133

Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%) 24.7 42.9 35.0 50.0 3.655 3.887

Forest Lands (Million Hectares) 4087 3897 4,000.0 3,700.0 3.875 4.037

Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day 2295 2884 2,400.0 3,139.5 3.982 4.125

Terrorist Attacks 739 3361 1,000.0 4,000.0 3.719 3.836

Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population) 1151 1077 900.0 1,175.5 3.517 3.625

Pct. World Population Living in Countries Not Free 41.7 35.0 25.0 35.0 3.458 3.589

School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) 48 69 80.0 70.0 4.067 4.140

Percentage of population with access to local health care 70.6 97.8 99.0 95.0 3.684 3.946

Proliferation 14 17 12.0 20.0 3.759 4.089

1983 2003 Best Worst Wt Best Wt Wrst

Annual AIDS deaths (millions)Terrorist Attacks

Number of Armed Conflicts (at leaProliferation

Percent unemployedInfant Mort

Debt/GNP; Developing CountrieViolent Crime, 17 Countries (per Percent of World Population Livi

Number of People Living on LessAnnual population additions millioSchool Enrollment, secondary (% GNP per capita PPP (constant 1Percentage of Households w/ A

Life Expectancy (World)Food availability Cal/cp Developi

CO2 atmospheric, ppmForest Lands (Million Hectares)

Literacy rate, adult total (% of peoPercentage of population with ac

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Uncertainty

.

.

100*(Best-Worst)/2003 Value

Developments: Probability, Impact and Timing

1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives.

59.9 -3.51 11.1

1.2 China and India becomes 50% urbanized 52.3 -3.70 16.4

1.3 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people

62.6 -3.81 8.7

1.4 Standard vaccinations of 70% of all children under five years

57.5 -4.46 7.2

1.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75% of women 49.3 -4.08 9.2

1.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches 85%

47.4 -3.57 11.9

1.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15% 60.5 3.08 7.6

1.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%.

43.1 -3.92 8.4

2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries

2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices.

59.9 -3.60 4.8

2.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%. (See 1.8))

43.1 2.66 9.6

2.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries

45.9 2.76 9.5

2.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and distribution reducing food waste by 10%.

57.5 2.76 7.6

2.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2% of the world’s crops

60.8 -3.73 7.8

2.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3%.

66.5 -4.13 10.2

.

Weights

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

Weight "Best"

Weight "Worst"

Interpretation of Likelihood

Likelihood by or before 2014

• 5 = almost certain = 90%• 4 = very likely = 75%• 3 = as likely as not = 50%• 2 = unlikely = 25%• 1 = almost certainly not = 5%

Interpretation of Impact Ratings

Impact (percent) =

(median of the panel’s input-1) / 4 x (max plausible percentage)

Variable

Max Plausible

Impact(%)

Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 3

Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries 4

GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US) 20

Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)

8

CO2 atmospheric, ppm 10

Maximum Plausible Impact

A Special Problem • There were many cases where the impacts were obviously negative

and yet the respondents’ answers indicated positive impacts. • Why?

– Instructions about the possibility using a negative impact were not emphasized

– Because “negative” and “positive” impacts could be interpreted as either:

• Moving the curve up or down• Moving the curve in a beneficial or detrimental direction

• Intent: – A positive impact means that if the development were to occur, the

variable it affected would increase in numerical value, even if this were a socially unfavorable direction.

– A negative impact would mean that if the development were to occur, the variable it affected would decrease in numerical value, even if this were a socially favorable direction.

Solution: Assigned Impact Values

4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)

4.1 Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20% globally

4.2 New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10% per unit of agricultural production.

4.3 Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water; drought in others, makes water 5% less available on the whole.

4.4 Improved sanitation increases clean surface water by 5%

4.5 World population growth of 20% (See 2.10)

4.6 Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies able in the poorest regions

4.7 Construction and use of high volume inter-watershed pipelines

4.8 Terrorists contaminating water supplies; supplies remain unusable for decades.

Trend Impact Results

Infant Mortality Rate

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Dea

ths

per

1,0

00 l

ive

bir

ths

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Food Availability

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

2500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cal

/Cap

(D

evel

op

[in

g C

ou

ntr

ies)

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

GNP per Capita

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1995

Do

llar

s p

er P

erso

n

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Percentage of Households with Safe Water

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per

cen

t (1

5 M

ost

Po

pu

late

d C

ou

ntr

ies)

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Trend Impact Results (2)

Atmospheric CO2

300.0

310.0

320.0

330.0

340.0

350.0

360.0

370.0

380.0

390.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Par

ts p

er M

illi

on

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Population Additions (Annual)

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mil

lio

ns

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Unemployment

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per

cen

t U

nem

plo

yed

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Literacy Rate

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Pct

of

Peo

ple

(ag

e 15

an

d a

bo

ve)

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Trend Impact Results (3)

Annual Aids Deaths

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mil

lio

ns

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Life Expectancy

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Yea

rs

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Number of Armed Conflicts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Wit

h o

ver

1,00

0 D

eath

s p

er Y

ear)

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Number of Armed Conflicts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Wit

h o

ver

1,00

0 D

eath

s p

er Y

ear)

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Trend Impact Results (4)

Forest Lands

3500

3700

3900

4100

4300

4500

4700

4900

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mil

lio

n H

ecta

res

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

People Living on Less Than #2/day

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mil

lio

ns

of

Peo

ple

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Terrorist Attacks

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f K

ille

d o

r W

ou

nd

ed

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Violent Crime (17 Countriees)

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per

100

,000

po

pu

lati

on

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Trend Impact Results (5)

People in Countries Not Free

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per

cen

t W

orl

d P

op

ula

tio

n

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

School Enrollment (Secondary)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Pct

Sch

oo

l A

ge

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Access to Local Health Care

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per

cen

t (1

5 m

ost

po

pu

late

d c

ou

ntr

ies)

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

Nuclear Proliferation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ou

ntr

ies

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

SOFI 2004

State of the Future Index 2004

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Baseline

LQ

Med

UQ

SOFI Comparison

Comparison of SOFI's

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

B Line 04

LQ 04

Med 04

UQ 04

B Line 03

LQ 03

Med 03

UQ 03

Terrorist Attacks

Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries

Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/

Nuclear Proliferation

Percent unemployed

Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%)

Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day

Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

Percent of World Population Living in Countries t

Annual population additions millions

GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)

Life Expectancy

CO2 atmospheric, ppm

School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)

Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Wat

Forest Lands (Million Hectares)

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and

Percentage of population with access to local hea

Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 populat

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20

Percent

Expectations "Best" Minus Median TIA Forecast

.

TIA worse than panel’s “best”

100* (Best- Median TIA)/Median

SOFI Computation

Raw Data forEach Variable

Event Statements

Estimates ofProbability and

Impacts

Baseline CalculationStatplan

Trend Impact Analysis

Event/ Variable Matrix

SOFICalculation

Variables: Best and Worst

Weights

Sheet 1

Sheet 2

Sheet 3

Estimates of Best and Worst Values

Sheet 4

.

Sensitivity Test

• Development: “Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people” – Panel:

• Probability by 2013: 51.33%• Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people

killed or wounded:” 15.2%• Time for the impact: 7 years

– New:• Probability by 2013: 51.33%• Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people

killed or wounded:” 1,250% (about 100,000 people)• Time for the impact: 0.25 years

High Impact Event

Terrorist Attacks

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f K

ille

d o

r W

ou

nd

ed

Base

UQ

MED

LQ

A Different Future

State of the Future Index 2004

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Baseline

LQ

Med

UQ

Policy Simulation

DevelopmentOrig Prob

Orig Impact

OrigTiming

New Prob

New Impact

New Timing

15.2: “Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people”

51.33 1,250 0.25 10 1,250 0.25

9.4 “Developed nations commit the resources necessary to end AIDS and treat HIV”

52.6 -4.23 9.5 75 -50 5

Effect of Policies

State of the Future Index 2004

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Baseline

LQ

Med

UQ