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2
3
• To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment
• To create a high-performance organization that promotes teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability
• To emphasis good Corporate Governance and commit to Corporate Social Responsibility
A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL
COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFICVISION
MISSION
Ownership & Commitment
Social Responsibility Integrity
Vision FocusProfessionalism Excellent Striving
Teamwork & CollaborationInitiative
VALUE
4
Corporate Governance Policy
The board of directors,
management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity, and transparency.
Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders
• Truthfully report company’s situation and future trends to all stakeholders equally on a timely manner.
• Shall not exploit the confidential information for the benefit of related parties or personal gains.
• Shall not disclose any confidential information to external parties.
CG ChannelsShould you discover any ethicalwrongdoing that is notcompliance to CG policies or anyactivity that could harm theCompany’s interest, pleaseinform:
Corporate Management OfficeThai Oil Public Company Limited 555/1 Energy Complex Building A 11F, Vibhavadi Rangsit Road,Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900
[email protected] http://www.thaioilgroup.com
+66-0-2797-2999 ext. 7312-5
+66-0-2797-2973
Corporate
• CSR - Building new classroom building for Ban Khun Ya School, Chiang Mai
Utilization
106%Market GRM
6.1 $/bblTPX
2.6 $/bblMarket GIM
9.7 $/bblStock gain
6.2 $/bblTLB
1.3 $/bblAccount GIM
15.6 $/bbl
7
•Global Econ
•Colder than normal
• Japan’s Quake
• Local refineries shutdown for
Euro IV
• LPG Ex-Ref Price Floatation since Jan 2011
•Unrest in ME resulting in a
surge crude oil prices
StrongMarket GIM
HigherDomestic Sales
BetterOptimization
RealizedStock gain
TOP Group Net Profit
3,745 MB
3,483 MB
7,228 MBNP w/o stock gain
Stock gain
Business
• New VLCC – 280,000 DWT• Acquired UBE – Ethanol 400 KLPD• TDAE - additional 50 KTA
Finance
• IFRS Adoption• 200 M$ loan to increase
efficiency of WC management
44 59 68 75 77 74 75 84 10120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
9
Dubai Crude Price
Q1/09 Q3/09Q2/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10
62
78
$/bbl
Q1/11
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
106 $/bblas of 20 May
More flow into oil market, WTI net long position hit record high
Colder-than-normal winter to support heating oil & crude prices
Enbridge, Trans-Alaska pipeline shutdown, etc.
Unrests in Middle East & North Africa interrupting crude production
2.7 2.9 3.7 3.6 6.1 1.1 3.3
-3.0-6.7
-4.8-8.2 -8.6
-4.7 -5.7
10
-47.8 -48.5-41.3
-54.5
-24.0-33.8
-48.0
+ Strong demand for bunker grade+ Lower western arbitrage- Singapore supply remained heavy
9.411.7 12.9 14.3
20.2
8.312.1
8.911.3 12.4 13.0
18.2
7.3
11.4
GO - DB
JET - DB
12.69.4 8.6
10.712.6
8.510.3
ULG95 - DB HSFO - DB
LPG - DB
(controlled price)
(Unit: $/bbl)
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Market GRM
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
+ Refinery outage and heavy maintenance + Firm demand from the ME and South Africa
+ Upcoming refinery maintenance to limit supply + Japan’s quake to tighten supply amid low
jet/kerosene inventory
+ Strong heating oil demand in the US & Europe + Japan’s quake to limit exports and even turn
imports for power plants
QTD (Q2)
16.0
21.2
20.6
-9.9
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
*(market price announced by Aramco)
*
-26.2
44 59 68 75 77 74 75 84 10120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
2009 2010
Crude Oil Price - Dubai (Unit: $/bbl)
62
111.7 $/bblas of 13 June
3.1 2.5 3.7 7.2 12.3 3.4 4.1
2.7 2.9 3.7 3.6 6.1 1.1 3.3
Market GRM
0.4
-0.4 -0.1
3.6 6.2 2.3 0.8
Stock Gain/Loss
Accounting GRM
(Unit: $/bbl)
(Unit: $/bbl)
(Unit: $/bbl)
11Q1/11
78
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
12
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
79% 76%
11%11%
4%4%
6% 9%
10% 10%
37% 38%
20% 20%
16% 15%
14% 14%
3% 4%
FY/10 FY/10 Q1/11 Q1/11
Far East
Local
MiddleEast
Q1/11
Sources of Crude
1.mainly ESPO-USSR2.LPG Market Price – CP Aramco
-24.0
20.6
18.2
-8.6
12.6
2 LPG
Platformate
Gasoline
Jet
Diesel
Fuel oil
Spread over Dubai(US$/bbl)
FY/10
2
Spread over Dubai(US$/bbl)
-14.8
12.1
11.4
-5.7
10.3
• Flexible production by diversifying crude type to seek an opportunity from market for cheaper crude.
• Improve lorry loading facilities and Maximize Gasoil products by adjusting production mode to capture domestic price premium and EURO IV incentive by 1.20 $/bbl
• New LPG Pricing boosted higher LPG production to enhance GIM
Others1
13
80% 92%
20% 8%
FY/10 Q1/11
Export
Domestic
(KBD)Refinery Intake 292
TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
261
45%
13%
13%
5%
17%6%2%
DomesticJobbers
Q1/11
Sales
Breakdown
Export = 8%
147 127 86
335
50
746
185129 95
337
42
788
LPG Gasoline Jet-A1 Diesel/GO FO Total
Q1/10
Q1/11
Domestic Oil Demand / Domestic Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand (KBD)
(KBD)
+1%+10%
+0.4%
-16%
+6%
+26%
746 732 722 748 788 711 737
138 155 120 160 80 192 144
89% 89% 90% 90%84% 87% 89%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Others Utilization RateLPG Jet/Kero Diesel FOGasoline Total
Demand
Utilization = 106%
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000+ Uncompleted return of PX
plant outages and Japanese aromatics capacity affected by earthquake
+ Less output from Urumqi as it is facing logistic difficulty to supply PX
+ Bullish demand from PTA with the restocking from Polyester producers
+ High demand from US & EU due to low inventory level
- Several derivative plant outages
14
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins
PX
ULG95
BZ
(US$/Ton) Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
PX-ULG95 286 226 218 456 669
BZ-ULG95 215 159 132 152 185
MX
119 138 112 121 123
34 3939 29 4629
3535 36 40
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
TL
BZ
MX
PX
TPX’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)
(US$/Ton) 296165
Q1/10 Q2 Q3
(KT/Quarter)
49190
Aromatics %Utilization
2010 Q1/11
87% 94%
Paraxylene (PX)
Benzene (BZ)
Q4
669185
(US$/Ton) Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
P2F -$/ton 120 103 91 133 180
P2F -$/bbl 15.7 13.4 12.0 17.4 23.6
Q1/11
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
15
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
64 65 58 44 6936 38 32 25
3687 97 85
60
109
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
Bitumen
TDAE/Extract/Slack
WaxBase Oil
Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins
BITUMEN
500SN
TLB’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)(KT/Quarter)
HSFO
629-97
54422
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4
(US$/Ton) Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
500SN-HSFO 435 541 607 593 629
BIT-HSFO 27 38 46 -25 -97
Q1/11
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
(US$/Ton) Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11
P2F -$/ton 115 135 149 179 181
P2F -$/bbl 17.4 20.6 22.6 27.2 27.5
+ Tight supply across Asia Pacific due to several refineries turnaround
+ Chinese demand peak up to building their stock for agriculture sector
+ Producers rose their price follow higher HSFO price
+ Chinese demand remained strong
+ High HSFO prices pressure margin (as bitumen margin decreases QoQ)
+ Spread TDAE 500 $/Ton
Base oil %Production Rate
2010 Q1/11
93% 98%
Lube Base Oil
Bitumen
15
722-117
TDAE
5.4 5.06.1 6.2
9.7
4.35.7
5.7 4.76.0
9.7
15.6
6.1 6.5
16
2.7 2.9 3.7 3.66.1
1.13.3
Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
15.7 13.412.0
17.4 23.6 20.714.7
Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
17.4 20.6 22.6 27.2 27.5 15.8 21.5
Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
Crude
Product toFeed
Product toFeed
(US$/bbl)
Market GRM*
(excluded stock gain / loss)
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)
Market GIM Accounting GIM
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10
4,995 1,407 617 73 92 21 84 (9) 7,228
4,241 540 340 86 13 11 46 (7) 5,25117
.
RefineryUtilization
Aromatic Production
Lube Base Production
Plant Availability
Plant Utilization
SAKC UtilizationShip
Utilization
Q1/10
Q1/11
3.1
12.3
P2F (US$/ton)
Acc GRM(US$/bbl)
P2F (US$/ton)
120
180
115
181
94%84% 92%
65%81%
92% 91%106%
94% 98%84% 87%
97% 96%
AP Rate(Baht/KW hour)
0.30
0.30
Q1/11 Net Profit Breakdown (include stock gain / loss & LCM)
NP
∆YoY
Q1/10 Q1/11
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
(Unit: MB) Conso.56%holding
55%holding
Stock &LCM gain Q1/11 = 3,483 MB
Net Profit excl. stock gain & LCM = 3,745 MB
• TOP: High utilization, More domestic sales, New LPG Pricing
• TLB: Additional 50,000 tons TDAE on commercial
(MB)
Sales Revenue 111,842 81,244 78,957
EBITDA 12,079 6,632 3,715
Financial Charges (543) (451) (424)
FX G/L & CCS 165 433 740
Tax Expense (2,808) (1,402) (451)
Net Profit / (Loss) 7,228 3,579 1,977
EPS (THB/Share) 3.54 1.75 0.97
THB/US$ - ending 30.43 30.30 32.53
Effective Tax Rate (%) 28% 23% 18%
(US$/bbl) Q1/11 Q4/10* Q1/10*
Market GRM 6.1 3.6 3.1
Market GIM 9.7 6.2 5.7
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
18
QoQ+/(-) YoY+/(-)
2.5 3.0
3.5 4.0
30,598 32,885
5,447 8,364
92 (119)
(268) (575)
(1,406) (2,357)
3,649 5,251
1.79 2.57
0.1 (2.1)
5% 10%
Interest Rate Currencies
40% Float 56% THB
60% Fixed 44% USD
Cost of Debt
TOP Group 4.04%19
76,838 82,737
26,20639,136
43,563
47,906
(Unit: MB)
Trade Payable/ Others
LT Debt*
146,607137,745
FY/10
Equities
CurrentAssets
Non-CurrentAssets
Q1/11
Statements of Financial Position
* Including current portion of Long-Term Debt
US$ Bond28%
US$ Loan17%
THB Bond37%
THB Loan18%
89%
5%3%3%
Consolidated Long-Term Debt 1)
1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt
Q1/11Total LT DebtBt. 47,906 mn.(US$ 1,574 mn.)
Net DebtBt. 28,905 mn.(US$ 950 mn.)
1.6 1.7
0.6
FY09 FY/10 Q1/11
0.5 0.4 0.3
FY/09 FY/10 Q1/11
Financial Ratios
Net Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Policy ≤ 1.0xPolicy ≤ 2.0x
1) As of 31 Mar 2011 (30.43 THB/US$) 2) EBIDA Q1/54*4
2011 Market Outlook
20
•Macroeconomics & Crude Prices
•Petroleum Market
•Aromatics & Base Oil
•Conclusion
•Q1-2011 Market Highlights
Ave Q1-11 LPG prices @$755/ton compared to previous $333/ton
LPG sales increase from 18,000 ton/month to 40,000 ton/month
TOP GRM increased by $0.6/bbl due to new LPG price
Q1-11 TOP domestic sales increased to 94%
TOP runs at 106% capturing high margins and market shares
Political unrests spreading throughout ME and NA (Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Iran, Bahrain, Libya) cause investors’ worries on oil supply disruption Unrest in Libya caused a supply
loss by at least 1.3 MBD
30% of Japan’s refinery and 20% of BTX capacity shut down immediately after the quake Support middle distillate cracks to
above $24/bbl early April More fuel oil imports for power
due to nuclear plant outage
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
21
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Crude surged on supply disruption andfund flows into oil market
Gasoline rose on supply tightness from plant turnaround and stock-rebuilding
Skyrocket aromatics margin on plant outages and strong demand from traders
Steady increase in base oil marginon tight supply
‘10 ‘10 ‘11
Q3 Q4 Q1
Dubai 73.9 84.4 100.9
MO-DB 8.6 10.6 12.6
JET-DB 12.8 14.3 20.3
GO-DB 12.4 13.0 18.4
FO-DB -4.8 -8.2 -8.7
PX-UG95 216 456 669
BZ-UG95 131 152 181
TL-UG95 56 91 39
500SN-FO 607 593 630
Bitumen-FO 46 -25 -97
Extreme cold weather and strong industrial activities pushed up Mid Distillates
GRM* 3.7 3.6 6.1
GIM* 6.1 6.2 9.7Strong GRM and GIM on bullish middle
distillates and PX margins*TOP GRM & GIM excluding stock gain/loss 22
Global Economy to Continue to Grow in 2011
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
2010 2011 *
10.3% 9.6%
10.4% 8.2%
3.9% 1.4%
7.8% 4.0%
2.8% 2.8%
1.7% 1.6%
5.0% 4.4%
2.9%
-0.5%
5.0% 4.4% 4.5%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Growth (%YoY)
China
India
Japan
Thailand
US
EU
World
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook 11 Apr 11
*Change from Jan-11 projection
24
86.8 86.085.1
88.0
1.6-0.6 -1.1
2.9
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
83
85
87
89
91
93
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
OECD stocks eased from its peak at 63 days of cover to a much comfortable level of 59.2 days of cover
Crude stocks in OECD are below 5 year range if Canada and PADD2 are excluded
Crude exports from Libya is expected to gradually resume as no major facility outage due to the unrest
Demand
YoY Growth
2011 Avg 89.4 MBD
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
25
2011 oil demand is expected to grow by 1.5 MBD, sending the gross number to a record high of 89 MBD Non-OECD countries remain the key driver of growth,
while the US growth to turn flat after a strong rebound last year
MBBL
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Greece’s 2010 budget deficit overshot the target (-8.1% of GDP) at -10.5% of GDP The cost of insuring Greek 5-yr government bond jump to a record high above 1,400 bps, making it more difficult to finance the debt via the financial market at a reasonable cost. Greece awaits given extra money and EU-IMF bailout package to keep the country from default The absence of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF Chief, cast a cloud over a new plan for Greece as he is a major champion for bailout approach. Portugal became the 3rd euro zone country in a year, after Greece and Ireland, to secure a rescue package.
26
Fund Flows
•More fund flows into commodity market to hedge against inflation amid strong fundamentals
Hurricane Season• NOAA forecasted
2011 Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal with 6-10 hurricanes, around half could become major
OPEC
MENA Unrest to Continue
• Unrests will continue in Libya, Yemen and Syria
• Saudi – Iran development into religion conflict
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Season: Jun-Nov
•OPEC gets more pressures from IEA and US to boost up output quota to bring price down as OPEC kept oil output quota unchanged sinceDec 2008
27
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Source : Reuters Polls (20+ companies) as of 21 April 11
What the Others SayCrude prices has risen too fast & too much…. “ EXPECT DOWNWARD CORRECTION”
Oil Price Forecast BRENT
Unit : USD/BBL Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 2011 2012
BofAML 122.0 110.0 95.0 108.0 -
Barclays 120.0 110.0 112.0 112.0 105.0
BNP Paribas 117.0 110.0 115.0 112.0 114.0
CA-CIB 103.0 85.0 86.0 94.9 82.5
Credit Suisse 111.0 107.0 102.0 106.2 101.5
Deutsche 120.0 125.0 120.0 117.5 117.5
First Energy 108.8 111.0 111.0 109.0 107.0
Global Risk - 122.0 119.0 114.0 115.0
Goldman Sachs - 105.0 107.0 - -
JBC Energy 110.7 107.8 102.0 106.4 109.8
Nomura 94.0 95.0 102.0 99.0 110.0
Soc Gen 113.3 110.8 108.7 109.5 110.0
UBS 110.0 105.0 95.0 103.8 95.0
Median from Reuters 113.7 110.0 105.0 109.2 108.0
28
$95$91 $91
$94
$101$106 $106
$109
$62
$68
$94
$62
$78
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
$/BBL$/BBL
Previous Forecast Latest Forecast Actual
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
What We See
We revise up average Dubai to $106, ranging $95-115/barrel on MENA unrest, pick up economic activities and more fund flows
2011 Dubai $106
29
Driving season demand and low gasoline inventories in the US to draw Asian supplies
31
Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-TD Q3-11 Q4-11
LPG ($/t) 613 798 860 923
MO-DB 8.6 10.6 12.6 15.7
JET-DB 12.8 14.3 20.3 21.6
GO-DB 12.4 13 18.4 20.7
FO-DB -4.8 -8.2 -8.7 -10.2
GRM 3.7 3.6 6.1
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Global industrial & agriculture demand support diesel prices Japan power needs support
Mid distillates and fuel oil price
China suspended diesel export and will expect to import diesel during peak summer demand
Strong heating oil and kerosene demand during winter, supporting Mid distillates cracks in Q4
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
High sugar prices lead to a rally in ethanol prices in Brazil Consumers switched to use more gasoline Brazil imported a lot of gasoline cargoes from the US
US gasoline stocks fell sharply for the 11 straight weeks Arbitrage cargoes from South Korea and India to the US
Healthy regional demand from Indonesia and Vietnam Prompt demand from Malaysia due to refinery outage Limited exports from China and South Korea
Avg.06-09 09 10 11
Anhydrous Ethanol Brazil Price (R$/cbm) US Gasoline Inventory
Following the sell-off in US gasoline futures since May 11 US gasoline stocks rose for the first time in 12 weeks Concerns over US gasoline demand due to high prices
32
1.) Tight local supply as many refineries T/A for Euro IV tight-in
2.) Stabilized Economy & Better Projected Demand as Govt Supports
Growth ( %YoY) 2010 2011F
LPG 11% 15 %
MOGAS (-1.7%) Flat
JET/KERO 6.8% 4 %
GASOIL Flat 1 %
FUEL OIL (-1.8%) 2%
NGV 33.2% 30-35%
GDP Growth Forecast of 4.0 – 5.0 % YoY
Projected strong local investment, consumption and robust agricultural sector
Capped diesel price@30B/L & postponement of B5 enforcement boost further gasoil demand
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
33
A
B C,D
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Chinese New Year
Japan Quake
PTA bring forward T/A
Product On Spec
Chinese credit tightening
Kuwait declared FM
A fire @ AMSB Malaysia
New PTAHanbang
35
Source: Consultants and Market
“ YTD 2011 spread is still healthy even it has been softened
currently but still high above 4-year average number.”
PX CFR – Naphtha J
4-year Avg = 412
Company Profile : S-OilLocation : Industrial complex Ulsan, Korea
Capacity Existing Additional -2011
Aromatics(KTPA)
PX-700BZ-100
PX-900BZ-280
“New PX PlantStart up = Apr 11Commercial = May 11”
20 May = 562
36
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
0200400600800
1000120014001600
Yisheng (Zhejiang)
Yisheng (Dahua)
Sanfanxiang
KTPA 2011 New Asian PTA Capacities Company Location PTA When
Yisheng (Zhejiang ) China 1,500 Jul-Aug ‘11
Yisheng (Dahua) China 500 Oct-Nov ‘11
Sanfanxiang China 1,500 Nov-Dec ‘11
Source: Consultants and Market
“Big PTA Plants come into the market. Supply is
expected to be tight in 2H2011 leading to
THE REAL GOLDEN YEAR”
Asia PX Supply / Demand 2011
Source: PCI_Apr 2011
37
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-TD Q3-11 Q4-11
PX-UG95 216 456 669 467
BZ-UG95 131 152 181 98
TL-UG95 56 91 39 20
S-Oil’s 900kta PX plant is expected to start in May-Jun 2011 Yisheng’s 1500kta PTA plant is expected to start in Jul-Aug 2011
Cut of Automotive production due to Japanese auto-part shortage reducing PS and ABS demand
7.5% polyester global production growth in 2011 (1% higher than 2010) Gasoline blending demand during driving season
Intensive credit tightening policy limits cash availability Power shortage during summer
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
…
38
…
Thailand automobile producers forecast Q2’11 sales slip Recovery in global car sales remains on track
China plan to open to traffic 9,981 km within this year 30% growth from 2010 construction plan supported bitumen prices
Growing demand in other countries i.e. India, Thailand, Japan Slower demand from China as stimulus faded
Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-TD Q3-11 Q4-11
500SN-FO 607 593 630 764
Bitumen-FO 46 -25 -97 -91
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
40
Conclusion
41
42
Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
“Higher and volatile oil prices due to higher demand, fund flows and MENA unrests”
“Buoyant product spreads on strong regional demand, extra demand from Japan for
reconstruction and additional volumes from domestic market due to refinery shutdown”
“Supportive margin on strong demand from new PTA plants and bullish polyester growth, while
new Aromatics supplies are limited”
“Higher margin from TDAE unit while high base oil spreads support amid soft bitumen spreads”
500SN-FO 544 630 764
Bitumen-FO 21 -97 -91
PX-UG95 311 669 467
BZ-UG95 163 181 98
TL-UG95 86 39 20
MO-DB 10.3 12.6 15.7
JET-DB 12.1 20.3 21.6
GO-DB 11.5 18.4 20.7
FO-DB -5.7 -8.7 -10.2
Dubai 78.1 100.9 113.3
2010 2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GRM* 3.3 6.1
GIM* 5.7 9.7
*TOP GRM & GIM excluding stock gain/loss
“ Buoyant GRM and GIM on strong middle distillates , supportive PX and Base Oil margins
and new LPG prices”
movingtoward
TOP Group
Branding
44
Aromatics and Solvents:Asia Pacific’s leading
PX Exporter & Regional retailchemical solvent marketer
Lube base oil: Regional producer of high quality base oil
(Group II and III)
Ethanol:ASEAN’s top and
most cost competitive Ethanol player
Marine: PTT Group’s shipping needs provider and
operator
Refining:Asia’s leading
integrated refinery
Solutions:Take leading part in PTT Group’s Energy Solutions roadmapPower:
Shape PTT Group’s Power Portfolio
HRFinance•OperationsExcellence
TQASOURCE: TOP STS discussion
Financing capacity and discipline
CG CSR
HPO
Today
TDAE
GrII/III + Specialty PX Max
LAB / Benzene Derivative
VLCC 1
VLCC 2-3
SPP 2/3
Others UBE
Export Market
PTTES / TES
45
Investment Roadmap
476 M$
890 M$
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
Ethanol-SAP Ethanol-UBE 45
Fleet Expansion VLCC1 VLCCs 14/10 20
TDAE Specialty-WAX 25 20
Euro IV Gasoline 47
PX Upgrading 45
Refinery Upgrading - HCU Revamp & others 300
Benzene Derivatives: LAB/MDI 300
Lube Base: G. II/III 250
Power expansion 290
• Optimized utilization to achieve maximum profitability and improve margin through dynamic operational excellence and synergy with PTT group
• Refinery industry would be recovery gradually along with global growth, led by China & ME.• Aromatic business will improve especially in H2 when new PTA plants start up.• TOP implements and pursues investment options to grow its revenue as below:
Approved by BoDxxx
xxx Under study
47
Thank You
Any queries, please contact:
at email: [email protected]
Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961
Fax: 662-797-2976
49Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand LPG Demand
LPG Demand by Sector
LPG Demand Highlight
• LPG Demand in Q1 2011 grew 13.0% YoY
driven mainly by industry sector:
Household +8.2% YoY
Transportation +22.1% YoY
Industry +4.8% YoY
Petrochemical +21.8% YoY
Outlook 2011
• Expect 15% LPG demand growth in 2011, largely from petrochemical sector.
• LPG retail price continue to be capped in every sectors except industry sector which will be based on “CP Linked” in July 2011.
ML/Mth
221
7071
142
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
2008 2009 2010 2011
Petrochem
Industry
Transportation
Household
KT/Mth
904
816
932
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011
50Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Gasoline Demand
Gasoline Demand by Grade
Gasoline Demand Highlight
• Gasoline demand in Q1 2011 expanded 1.4%
YoY though pressured by higher retail price.
• Portion of gasohol & gasoline sales is
relatively maintained at around 60% : 40%
• Average ethanol replacement is 1.31
ML/Day currently
Outlook 2011
• Expects gasoline demand growth 0-1% in
2011 due to:
Higher retail gasoline price will continue
pressuring down demand which trigger
fuel switching
While strong private consumption index
doesn’t help supporting gasoline
demand
ML/Mth
232
205
156 18
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
JanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNov
2008 2009 2010 2011
E20
GSH91
GSH95
ULR91
ULG95
ML/Mth
632
596
615
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000
36,000
40,000
44,000
Jan
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
No
v
2009 2010 2011
mm
l /
mo
nth
# o
f a
irc
raft
# of Flights (lhs)
JP 1 Demand
JET Demand Highlight
• Jet consumption, which correlated with
number of flights, has increased
continuously since May 2010. JET fuel in Q1
11 growth was 10.3%YoY.
Outlook 2011
• Expect Jet demand growth in 2011 at 4%
back to normal level which is in align with
Thailand economic growth:
In addition, strong intra-region travelling
figures is another factor that could boost
up Jet fuel demand.
51Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand JET-A1 Demand
JET-A1 demand and # of flights
ML/Mth
472
425
464
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011
259259
290
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
ML/Mth
2009 2010 2011
Gasoil Demand Highlight
• Gasoil demand in Q1 2011 slightly edged up at 0.4%YoY due to government’s policy to limit diesel price not to exceed 30 Baht/litre. (In March, diesel consumption largely grew 3.2% compared to Feb)
• Current Portion between B3:B5 is 60:40 and B100 replacement is ~ 1.55 ML/Day
Outlook 2011
• Expect modest gasoil demand growth at 1-2%
in 2011 due to:
Capped diesel price (tentatively till Sep
2011) supports demand and also strong
Thai Baht helps cap retail prices.
In addition, strong manufacturing sector
will help limit the loss.
However, if diesel price is floated, fuel
switching to NGV will depress gasoil
consumption.Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Gasoil Demand
Rising Trend of NGV Demand
52
ML/Mth
1,624
1,492
1,705
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fuel Oil Demand Highlight
• FO demand in Q1 2011 contracted 16.3%
YoY owing to reduction in every sector
especially electricity area as there were
fewer power plants’ NG disruptions.
Outlook 2011
• Expect better Fuel Oil demand growth 3-5%
in 2011 due to:
Fuel switching from LPG to Fuel Oil
owing to floating LPG retail price of
industrial sector.
Economic growth supported bunker
usage
In addition unexpected natural gas
supply disruption to power, causing
prompt FO demand in power plants
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector
53
ML/Mth
90 79 15 23
-50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
2008 2009 2010 2011
Others & Article 10Electricity
Industry
Transportation
ML/Mth
184 210207
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011