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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WG Direction générale de l’Aviation civile Ministère de la transition écologique et solidaire Developing a safety methodology for drones MAC 2018 September 27th, 2018 Carine Donzel-Defigier Deputy Director, Aeronautic Industry Department, DGAC General Secretary of the French Civil Drones Council
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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WG

Direction générale de l’Aviation civile

Ministère de la transition écologique et solidaire

Developing a safetymethodology for

drones

MAC 2018September 27th, 2018

Carine Donzel-DefigierDeputy Director, Aeronautic Industry Department, DGAC

General Secretary of the French Civil Drones Council

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGDeveloping a safety methodology for drones

2

1. Professional civil drones in France

2. A needed change of paradigm in regulations

3. A Safety methodology for drones

1. Third party presence likelihood

2. Fatal failure likelihood

4. Way forward

2

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGProfessional civil drones in France

3(source : DGAC/DSAC)

6%

51%27%

12%

5% 0%

Mass repartition of professional drones in France (end 2017)

< 800 g

800 g to 2 kg

2 kg to 4 kg

4 kg to 8 kg

8 kg to 25 kg

> 25 kg

• A fast-growing business

~7 100 operators, ~12 500 professional drones, ~11 000 jobs and an estimated turnaround of 250M€ in 2017

60%

10%

10%

4%

2%14%

Professional drones activity in France (2017)

Media and audiovisual

Infrastructures and buildinginspection

Mines, quarries andconstruction sites

Agriculture

Security and area monitoring

Other

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGProfessional Civil drones in France

4

Manufacturers

Professional syndicates and

federations

AdministrationsOperators and training organisms

Major customers

Research organisms, universities, consulting firms…

Lawyers, insurers, brokers

Clusters and financing entities

Civil Drones Council

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGProfessional Civil drones in France

5

Leisure and competition(incl. aeromodelism)

2017 (declared)

115 000 Fl.Hr 15 300 Fl.Hr56 700 Fl.Hr 1 100 Fl.Hr

ExperimentationAerial Work

• Overview of the French civil drones regulation (2012, updated 2015 and 2018)

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA needed change of paradigm in regulations

6

• French experience shows that the « operational restriction » approach has already reached its limits

• No ability to develop new « scenarios »• Experimentations possible, but no way forward for mass uses

• New approach in the Civil Drones Council • Clear allocation of responsibilities to the operator and to the manufacturer

(and to the authority…)• Development of a trustworthy safety methodology based on aeronautical

standardso To Guarantee a safety level at least equivalent to today’s civil aviation system…o …. and compatible with estimated drone traffic increase at low levelso Exportable at European level

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA safety methodology for drones

• The use case : Long Range Operations

• A challenging mission envelope:o Daily long range surveillance of linear infrastructures

• Long range: 200 to 500 km

• Low level: 50 to 150 m

• Capabilities of flying over people

• Non-segregated airspace

• Corresponding to a proven end user need:o Productivity and efficiency gains compared to existing means,

new types of operations enabled

o Applicable to > 1 Million km of infrastructures in France only

o Major and proactive potential clients, unified specification request

o Many challenges of interest for the industry as a whole

• Many technical and safety-related barriers:o Trajectory assurance, communications, airspace integration…

• An airworthiness methodology exportable to other use cases:o From operational restrictions to an appropriate airworthiness

7

End user Type of infrastructure Length

Railways 33 000 km

Powerlines (high voltage overhead lines)

105 000 km

Powerlines (low & medium voltage overhead lines)

760 000 km

Gas lines 32 000 km

Powerlines (high voltage overhead lines)

32 900 km

Dams & water inlet channels 200 000 km

Highways 4 000 km

Max 100m

10 to

120

m

Max

150

m

RTE mission example

Very specific profile

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA safety methodology for drones

8

• At the core : the safety equation

• Interim long range operations : restricted activity volume (in fl hr) in predefined zones

→ Controlled exposure to third party Adapted requirements on design→ Regulatory framework: French derogations and Specific cat. Standard scenario→ Timeframe ~ 2018/19

• “Ultimate” long range operations : daily operations « almost everywhere » without prior notice

→ Few restrictions on third party presence high requirements on design (close to certified)→ Regulatory framework: presumably EASA Certified category→ Timeframe ~ 2022

Fatality likelihood< 10-x /fl hr

Third party presence likelihood (ground, air)

Fatal failure likelihood(fall, fly away…)

Acceptable safety level Design/licensing Density models

Partial proof of design Limited area of operation and activity volumes

10-7 /fl hr, adaptable depending on volume

10-7 /fl hr Approved airworthiness, proof of design

No restriction other than local exception

• Two applications

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA safety methodology for drones

9

• Third-party presence likelihood (ground)

9

Development of a quantification methodology of ground presence based on various and consolidated data

Example (cartographic information and population census)

Third party presence likelihood (ground, air)

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA safety methodology for drones

10

• Third-party presence likelihood (air)

On a short-term basis : in the absence of a reliable collision avoidance system, the air risk is mitigated by operating in a de facto segregated airspace

No regulated areas but a mission volume close enough to the infrastructure to be considered empty of any other a/c

Maximum « fly away » probability capped @ 10-7/fl hr.

Max X m

10 to

120

m

Max

Ym

Third party presence likelihood (ground, air)

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA safety methodology for drones

11

• Third-party presence likelihood (air)

Longer term : airspace shared with other a/c

Implies traffic separation solutions: onboard collision avoidance system (collaborative or not), UTM, etc.

10 to

120

m

Third party presence likelihood (ground, air)

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA safety methodology for drones

12

• Identifying undesirable events levels: from societal damages to classes of failures

Fatal failure likelihood(fall, fly away…)

Probability or likelihood of lethalinjuries to third parties on the ground

Probability or likelihood of lethalinjuries to third parties in flight

Infrastructure risksInfrastructure risks Probability or likelihood of damage to a critical infrastructure

Flight risksFlight risks

Ground risksGround risks

Level 0 :Societal impact

Level 1:Operations

Level 2 :LR RPAS functional failures

Catastrophic • Excursion out of the predefined volume of flight• Fall without guarantee of falling in a predefined area

(included in fly away)

Hazardous • Fall into a predefined area where population density is verylow

• Controlled fall into an area where population density isknown (id est, controlled risk)

Major Loss of capability :• To modify the ongoing mission• To be detected by other aircraft (loss of navigation lights,

etc…)

For each function : - Undetected faultyperformance

- Detected faultyperformance

- Undetected loss- Detected loss- Untimely triggering

References: EASA• CS 23• SC-RPAS.1309-01• NPA 2017-05

JARUS• UAS Operational Categorization• CS-LUAS• AMC RPAS.1309• SORA• Design Objectives for RPAS DAA

EUROCAE/RTCA/SAE• ARP-4754

& 4761• DO-178, 254,

326 & 356

Defense• DGA Instruction technique CEV

202001 version 1.0 [26/102002]• NATO UAV Systems Airworthiness

Requirements [Version 2 Juillet 2004]

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGA safety methodology for drones

13

• Collective development of a generic safety analysis methodology of a drone system

Fatal failure likelihood(fall, fly away…)

Undesirable event Severity levelTarget probability of failure pfh No single failure

results in the UE Target global FDALGround risk Air risk

• Crash not guaranteed to be within planned crash area

• Fly away without separation capabilitiesCATASTROPHIC

Cumulated probability <10-7 yes B

• Crash within planned crash area• Controlled crash• Fly away with separation capabilities

HAZARDOUS10-7

Probability of impact w/ person on ground

10-5 no B to C

• Loss of control on current mission• Loss of capability to be detected by other a/c

MAJOR 10-3 no D

1 2 3 5

6

4

Allocation to high-level safetyfunctions through FHA

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WGWay forward

14

• Unfortunately, the future European regulation has a similar approach than the current French regulation

• No clear allocation of responsibilities between operator and manufacturer • No decision on the acceptable safety level for drones operations• No quantification of risk• No genuine generic approach :

• SORA is mission-based and entirely the responsibility of the operator

• We believe in our approach and will keep lobbying European institutions

• Many thanks to P. Hadou, DGA, and the organisation team of MAC 2018, for allowing us the opportunity to present our work today• We think there are commonalities between civil drones for high-added value

missions and some military ones and welcome your comments

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Civil Drones Council Long Range Operations WG

Direction générale de l’Aviation civile

Ministère de l’Environnement, de l’Énergie et de la Mer

THANK YOUFOR YOUR ATTENTION


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