21
© OECD/IEA - 2007 World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst International Energy Agency
| Date post: | 31-Dec-2015 |
| Category: |
Documents |
| Upload: | silvia-wilson |
| View: | 217 times |
| Download: | 3 times |
© OECD/IEA - 2007
World Energy Outlook 2007:China and India Insights
Pawel OlejarnikResearch Analyst
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Why Focus on China & India?
China & India have contributed more than half of the increase in global demand for energy and over 80% for coal since 2000
Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, Imports & Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the Reference Scenario, 2000-2006
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Energy demand
Oil demand
Oil imports
CO emissions 2
ChinaIndia Rest of the world
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Coal demand
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
World Primary Energy Demand
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n to
nnes
of o
il equ
ivale
nt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n to
nnes
of o
il equ
ivale
ntOther renewablesBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
© OECD/IEA - 2007
The Emerging Giants of World Energy
China & India will contribute more than 40% of the increase in global energy demand to 2030 on current trends
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total energy
Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Power sectorinvestments
Rest of the worldIndiaChina
Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 2005 & 2030 as Share of World Total
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global Oil Supply Prospects to 2015
Oil supply/demand balance is set to remain tight
In total, 37.5 mb/d of gross capacity additions needed in 2006-201513.6 mb/d to meet demand & rest to replace decline
in existing fields
OPEC & non-OPEC producers have announced plans to add 25 mb/d through to 2015
Thus, a further 12.5 mb/d of gross capacity would need to be added or demand growth curbed
Otherwise, a supply crunch cannot be ruled out
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Proven Natural Gas Reserves
Gas reserves are also concentrated – Russia and Iran together account for almost half of global gas reserves
World total: 183 tcm as of 1 January 2007
Source: Cedigaz
8.0
7.0
5.8
14.5
57.9
73.9
13.6
2.7
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global CO2 Emissions and Climate Change
Global CO2 emissions rise to 42 gigatonnes in 2030, 57% above current levels and double the 1990 level
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n to
nnes
42 Gt
27 Gt
+57%
© OECD/IEA - 2007
World’s Top Five CO2 Emitters
2005 2015 2030
Gt rank Gt rank Gt rank
US 5.8 1 6.4 2 6.9 2
China 5.1 2 8.6 1 11.4 1
Russia 1.5 3 1.8 4 2.0 4
Japan 1.2 4 1.3 5 1.2 5
India 1.1 5 1.8 3 3.3 3
China becomes the largest emitter in 2007 & India the 3rd largest by 2015
© OECD/IEA - 2007
China & India in Global CO2 Emissions
Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in 2005-2030 comes from China & India
Cumulative Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
0 100 200 300 400 500
United States
European Union
Japan
China
India
billion tonnes
1900-20052006-2030
© OECD/IEA - 2007
CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2006 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075
milli
on to
nnes
of C
O2
Existing power plants Power plants built in 2005-2015
Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Alternative Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Increase in Net Oil Imports, 2006-2030
New policies reduce global oil demand by 14 mb/d by 2030, cutting sharply the need for imports
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
OECDNorth America
OECDEurope
OECDPacific
China India Other Asia
mb/
d
Reference ScenarioAlternative Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario, but they level off in the Alternative Policy Scenario
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n to
nnes
(Gt) Reference Scenario 42 Gt
Alternative Policy Scenario
34 Gt
19%
27 Gt
© OECD/IEA - 2007
India’s Local Pollution
New policies reduce substantially emissions of SO2 and NOx
– largely from coal-fired power plants, cars & trucks
Alternative Policy Scenario
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
milli
on to
nnes
Reference Scenario
SO2
NOx
© OECD/IEA - 2007
How to go beyond?
© OECD/IEA - 2007
CO2 Emissions - 450 Stabilisation Case
In line with G-8 appeal in Heiligendamm, by 2030 emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt o
f CO 2
CCS in industryCCS in power generationNuclearRenewablesSwitching from coal to gasEnd Use electricity efficiency
End Use fuel efficiency
Reference Scenario
450 Stabilisation Case27 Gt
42 Gt
23 Gt
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Public Energy Research and Development Funding in IEA
Countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
billio
n do
llars
(200
6)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
EfficiencyFossil fuels CCSRenewablesNuclear HydrogenStorage technologies
Other
Share of energy R&Din total R&D (right axis)
Share of public budgets for energy R&D in total R&Dfell over 50% in the last two decades
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Conclusions
Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path
China and India are engines of global energy demand -- countries putting economic development as top priority
Next 10 years are critical
Road to Copenhagen – a way out ?
© OECD/IEA - 2008
World Energy Outlook 2008: Outline
New set of energy projections to 2030, using improved WEM & coupled with a general equilibrium economic model
In-depth analysis of key topics> Post-2012 climate scenarios> Oil and gas supply prospects > Energy poverty in resource-rich Sub-Saharan Africa
Extensive consultation and co-operation> UNFCCC, US EPA, OPEC, oil companies, ADB, World Bank, IMF…
Informal workshops in April 2008First draft ready by 1 August; launch 12 November
WWorldorldEEnergynergyOOutlookutlook
20082008
