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5 th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit www.world-shale.com OCTOBER 2014 5 th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit www.world-shale.com OCTOBER 2014 Introduction Shale is the game changer in the oil and gas industry right now. And, if utilised correctly, it could be a game changer for decades to come. 1 Who would have predicted the unconventional hydrocarbon development in the U.S. ten years or so ago? Extracting a number of shale reserves was pretty much impossible due to limited capabilities in drilling technologies and potential environmental concerns. The ability to exploit shale took nigh on everyone by surprise, and now oil and gas players are looking for the new angle that will change shale once again. The industry has come on in leaps and bounds with innovative technological solutions and economic policy support, the future looks bright for the extraction, production and utilisation of shale. Trends in Technology: Technological developments have been a major driver in changing the shale industry, enabling extraction and production while avoiding more hazardous and high-risk processes. Fracture propagation modelled in 3D, or 3D seismic mapping, ensures that a realistic image is created to study the behaviour of rocks before, during and after fracturing. 2 Ultimately, such modelling improves production techniques because of increased predictability in knowing how to optimise water volume and pressure levels. 3D mapping lets one know where to drill, but what could increase further accuracy is high- resolution imaging. Seismic technology uses acoustic vibrations that bounce back off geological microphones to determine subsurface features, says Mark P. Mills, Founder and CEO of the Digital Power Group, and writer of the Forbes.com Energy Intelligence Blog. 3 Going forward, microseismic fracture mapping can enhance the accuracy of fracturing further. With sensors and instrumentation used to highlight obstacles in the fracturing process, as well as understanding distance, geometry and much more 4 , microseismic technology deploys ultrasensitive sensors able to record 3,000 meters underground and listen for noises where the rocks react. 5 To really understand what is happening underground, technology also needs to move from snap-shot coverage to full blown “continuous real-time monitoring.6 Today’s coverage is episodic, and many occurrences could potentially be missed because of a lack of 24/7 surveillance. Technology is also being utilised not just to increase the efficiency in shale exploration and production, but to soften the impact the industry has on the environment, the local communities and the surrounding infrastructure, according to The Denver Post. Mark Jaffe 7 reports that while drilling for shale can be disruptive to local communities, with increased road use and tons of sand and chemicals to move around on site, companies have begun to look into ways that technology can not only improve the situation for the benefit of the oil and gas industry, but can soften the impact on the surrounding area. A number of underground pipeline initiatives in Colorado, U.S., are leading the way in transporting oil, water and natural gas from sites to facilities further afield. Anadarko Petroleum Corp’s stim centeris a mile away from the well for example, separating equipment noise and disturbance from the well location. Companies are not only finding that the consolidation of operations and supplies to one central but external location is a means to please communities, but is also a sensible economic decision as it reduces the amount of downtime in between moving equipment, field to field. 8 Trends in Politics: With armed conflicts and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as repercussions still being felt from the Arab Spring, the oil and gas marketplace has surprisingly been for the past few years, as former chief economist of BP Christof Ruhl says, an “eerie calm. 9 The North American shale energy boom has countered much of the lost oil production in conflict zones 10 , and a number of governments have reflected on the appeasing in volatility by embracing shale into their own politics, while others have not been as favourable. France and Bulgaria are the two EU nations who have banned fracking for shale gas 11 , while across the English Channel, Britain is embracing the shale industry with ministers announcing over the summer of 2014 that the country is open to bids from fracking companies to begin exploration. 12 Europe has been looking for other energy options to break Russia’s dominance on the continent’s natural gas supplies in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and imposed sanctions. Shale Trends to Watch Out For Worldwide Technological, political and economic development potential from around the globe.
Transcript
Page 1: - Shale Trends to Watch Out For Worldwide -

5th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit ∙ www.world-shale.com ∙ OCTOBER 2014 5th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit ∙ www.world-shale.com ∙ OCTOBER 2014

Introduction

Shale is the game changer in the oil and gas industry right now. And, if utilised correctly, it could be

a game changer for decades to come. 1

Who would have predicted the unconventional hydrocarbon development in the U.S. ten years or so

ago? Extracting a number of shale reserves was pretty much impossible due to limited capabilities

in drilling technologies and potential environmental concerns. The ability to exploit shale took nigh on

everyone by surprise, and now oil and gas players are looking for the new angle that will change

shale once again.

The industry has come on in leaps and bounds with innovative technological solutions and economic

policy support, the future looks bright for the extraction, production and utilisation of shale.

Trends in Technology:

Technological developments have been a

major driver in changing the shale industry,

enabling extraction and production while

avoiding more hazardous and high-risk

processes.

Fracture propagation modelled in 3D, or 3D

seismic mapping, ensures that a realistic image

is created to study the behaviour of rocks

before, during and after fracturing. 2 Ultimately,

such modelling improves production techniques

because of increased predictability in knowing

how to optimise water volume and pressure

levels.

3D mapping lets one know where to drill, but

what could increase further accuracy is high-

resolution imaging. Seismic technology uses

acoustic vibrations that bounce back off

geological microphones to determine

subsurface features, says Mark P. Mills,

Founder and CEO of the Digital Power Group,

and writer of the Forbes.com Energy

Intelligence Blog. 3

Going forward, microseismic fracture mapping

can enhance the accuracy of fracturing further.

With sensors and instrumentation used to

highlight obstacles in the fracturing process, as

well as understanding distance, geometry and

much more4, microseismic technology deploys

ultrasensitive sensors able to record 3,000

meters underground and listen for noises

where the rocks react. 5

To really understand what is happening

underground, technology also needs to move

from snap-shot coverage to full blown

“continuous real-time monitoring.” 6 Today’s

coverage is episodic, and many occurrences

could potentially be missed because of a lack

of 24/7 surveillance.

Technology is also being utilised not just to

increase the efficiency in shale exploration and

production, but to soften the impact the industry

has on the environment, the local communities

and the surrounding infrastructure, according to

The Denver Post.

Mark Jaffe7 reports that while drilling for shale

can be disruptive to local communities, with

increased road use and tons of sand and

chemicals to move around on site, companies

have begun to look into ways that technology

can not only improve the situation for the

benefit of the oil and gas industry, but can

soften the impact on the surrounding area.

A number of underground pipeline initiatives in

Colorado, U.S., are leading the way in

transporting oil, water and natural gas from

sites to facilities further afield. Anadarko

Petroleum Corp’s “stim center” is a mile away

from the well for example, separating

equipment noise and disturbance from the well

location.

Companies are not only finding that the

consolidation of operations and supplies to one

central but external location is a means to

please communities, but is also a sensible

economic decision as it reduces the amount of

downtime in between moving equipment, field

to field. 8

Trends in Politics:

With armed conflicts and geopolitical risks in

the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as

repercussions still being felt from the Arab

Spring, the oil and gas marketplace has

surprisingly been for the past few years, as

former chief economist of BP Christof Ruhl

says, an “eerie calm”. 9

The North American shale energy boom has

countered much of the lost oil production in

conflict zones10, and a number of governments

have reflected on the appeasing in volatility by

embracing shale into their own politics, while

others have not been as favourable.

France and Bulgaria are the two EU nations

who have banned fracking for shale gas11,

while across the English Channel, Britain is

embracing the shale industry with ministers

announcing over the summer of 2014 that the

country is open to bids from fracking

companies to begin exploration. 12

Europe has been looking for other energy

options to break Russia’s dominance on the

continent’s natural gas supplies in the wake of

the Ukraine crisis and imposed sanctions.

Shale Trends to Watch

Out For Worldwide – Technological, political and

economic development potential

from around the globe.

Page 2: - Shale Trends to Watch Out For Worldwide -

5th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit ∙ www.world-shale.com ∙ OCTOBER 2014 5th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit ∙ www.world-shale.com ∙ OCTOBER 2014

Poland has been touted as a potential host of

shale gas reserves, with Polish foreign minister,

Radoslaw Sikorski saying in 2010 that “shale

gas offered Poland the chance to replicate

Norway’s success.” 13 Despite the downgrade of

Poland’s shale gas reserves more recently, the

government is still optimistic, approving

amendments to legislation that governs shale

gas. 14

Europe’s shale potential remains hopeful, but

despite politicians making moves to enable a

shale revolution across some of the continent,

the European Union has allowed shale to be

dealt with further down the policy chain, in some

cases regionally, instead of making rulings and

approvals at union level. 15 Despite the potential

future shale offers for Europe, contrasting

policies and politics across the continent mean

Europe will continue to rely on further afield

energy resources.

Politically speaking, shale can be seen as

responsible for creating new political alliances.

Japan is looking to boost imports of shale gas to

replace the loss of nuclear power16, and

Japanese and U.S. relations remain vital to

securing the much needed energy resources.

It is important to note the seriousness much of

the world’s governments are taking in regards to

cutting carbon emissions and adopting greener

energy policies. Together the U.S. and China

are accountable for nearly half the world’s

carbon pollution, at 45%. 17 The U.S. however,

knows it needs to address the perceived stance

on climate change after not ratifying the legally

binding Kyoto Treaty of 1997, from an earlier

United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s

Clean Power Plan – a plan to maintain an

affordable and reliable energy system that cuts

pollution, protecting health and the environment

- is one way the US is slashing CO2 emissions.

The fracking boom is attributed by many to have

cut the U.S. carbon dioxide pollution levels.

“As carbon prices increase, coal burning should

decline and be replaced eventually by natural

gas, presumably driving down CO2 emissions

nationwide”, said William Nelson, Analyst for

Bloomberg New Energy Finance, quoted

in climatecentral.org. 18

“Rising U.S. output has

also influenced

economic policies in

other countries looking

to establish a shale

industry.”

Trends in Economy

The U.S. is on the verge of becoming the

world’s largest producer of liquid petroleum

thanks to its shale oil and gas boom. However,

the economics of shale is having a much wider

impact outside of America. Rising U.S. output

has undermined the influence and economic

powers of some OPEC countries, in particular

Saudi Arabia, in controlling oil prices. 19

Rising U.S. output has also influenced

economic policies in other countries looking to

establish a shale industry. It is likely that the

U.S. will become a net gas exporter if export

facilities and infrastructure continue to be

approved20, with other countries wanting to

explore possible gains in their domestic energy

as well.

Argentina is looking to increase its presence in

the shale industry. The hope is that the country

can utilise its rich and condensed resources

found in the Vaca Muerta to assist in

stimulating a more favourable energy trade

balance.21

The Argentine government has therefore been

making sweeping updates to the 1967 Oil and

Gas Law, aiming to rework production

regulation and revenue sharing, as well as

adding additional benefits to enhance the oil

and gas industry22, ultimately to further the

country’s economy. Laws allowing foreign

companies which have invested more than

$USD 250m to export 20% of shale production

tax free after the fifth year of development23 are

also proposed.

While the changes are not without its critics,

Argentine Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich has

said that the country needs to have an updated

law unified to taxes, royalties and

environmental standards.24 Companies will also

be offered in the new proposals 35-year

licenses to develop shale oil reserves and 25

years for conventional energy.25 Additionally,

firms can win 10-year extensions, but only if

they fulfil their investment commitments. 26

Lithuania and Algeria too are adjusting

economic policies to favour the exploitation of

shale. Indeed the general consensus of many

Page 3: - Shale Trends to Watch Out For Worldwide -

5th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit ∙ www.world-shale.com ∙ OCTOBER 2014

is to try and ensure economic feasibility of oil shale extraction and production, with unconventional

shale formations fuelling the U.S. economy as an example to all. Lithuania has adjusted its shale gas

regulations to become more ‘investor-friendly’ 27 and Algeria drafted proposals to offer long-term

licenses to investors interested in unconventional reserves. 28

China wants to increase its own energy security to decrease its reliance on the Middle East. The Gulf

provides roughly half of China’s imported oil29, and has seen a decline in US interest since its shale

boom, meaning China is more susceptible to Middle East disruption than its western counterpart. The

country’s energy regulator, the National Energy Administration, said it will provide subsidies and tax

breaks for companies30 interested in making shale gas happen in China.

Summary The international oil and gas market can change rapidly in response to technological innovations and

geopolitical situations. Trends and possibilities drive the shale industry forward, hence why they are

critical in forecasting energy outlooks.

Chairman, CEO and Founder of American Energy Partners, LP; Aubrey K. McClendon, and Edward

Morse; MD and Global Head of Commodities at Citi Research, will be kicking off the 5th Annual World

Shale Summit by looking at key drivers shaping the industry.

5th World Shale Oil & Gas Summit ∙ www.world-shale.com ∙ OCTOBER 2014

References:

1 - http://www.kpmg.com/FR/fr/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/Shale-gas-global-m-and-a-trends.pdf

2 - http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/oil-shale3.htm

3 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/markpmills/2013/05/08/big-data-and-microseismic-imaging-will-accelerate-the-smart-drilling-oil-and-gas-

revolution/

4 - http://theenergycollective.com/jared-anderson/539051/energy-quote-day-what-s-next-shale-gas

5 - http://www.total.com/en/energies-savoir-faire/petrole-gaz/exploration-production/secteurs-strategiques/gaz-non-conventionnels/focus-

gaz-de-schiste/tomorrows-technologies

6 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/markpmills/2013/05/08/big-data-and-microseismic-imaging-will-accelerate-the-smart-drilling-oil-and-gas-

revolution/

7 - http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_26660219/colorados-biggest-drillers-try-new-techniques-cut-oil?source=infinite

8 - http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Drillers-in-Colorado-especially-mindful-of-the-5707269.php#/0

9 - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9cc592a4-537d-11e4-8285-00144feab7de.html#axzz3G6ySocwY

10 - http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-08/u-dot-s-dot-shale-boom-keeps-global-oil-prices-from-soaring

11 - http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-france-fracking-20140622-story.html#page=1

12 - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/28/fracking-expansion-shale-gas-opposition-britain

13 - http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/07/shale-gas-poland

14 - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/07/31/poland-shalegas-minister-idUKL6N0Q438P20140731

15 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/christophercoats/2014/04/23/can-shale-save-europe/

16 - http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/04/20/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-to-ask-obama-to-boost-shale-gas-exports-to-

japan/#.VD6BevnF8cA

17 - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/22/us-climate-change-john-kerry-un

18 - http://www.climatecentral.org/news/analysts-states-bullish-on-clean-power-plan-18072

19 - http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article4234447.ece

20 - http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/09/11/us-approves-two-more-lng-export-facilities/

21 - http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-recommends-argentina-shale-oil-fracking-2014-10#ixzz3GCHZv1DV

22 - http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/166993/sapag-draws-a-hardline-on-vaca-muerta

23 - http://www.oilandgastechnology.net/upstream-news/argentina-attracts-oil-gas-investors-new-legislation

24 - http://www.oilandgastechnology.net/upstream-news/argentina-attracts-oil-gas-investors-new-legislation

25 - http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/166993/sapag-draws-a-hardline-on-vaca-muerta

26 - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/17/argentina-energy-idUKL1N0RI1KV20140917

27 - http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/lithuania-shale-gas-legislation-chevron-comeback

28 - http://www.oilgasmonitor.com/algeria-keen-to-exploit-shale-reserves/5063/

29 - http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/07/dependence-on-middle-eastern-oil-now-its-chinas-problem-too/259947/

30 - http://www.shaleenergyinsider.com/2013/11/01/china-announces-policy-to-encourage-shale-gas-development/

*Disclosure: We have sourced our statistics from the references as shown in the citation list. While we have sourced these statistics from

reliable sources, The CWC Group cannot guarantee all accuracy and credibility.

Compiled by Larissa Hirst, Online Content Manager, The CWC Group.

Event Information:

As the premier meeting place for the world’s shale oil and gas industry, the 5th Annual

World Shale Oil & Gas Summit, co-hosted by CWC and the American Gas Association,

and co-sponsored by the International Gas Union, offers unrivalled networking

opportunities and discussions on the latest shale updates across the globe, as well as

finding solutions to common challenges.

The summit will feature more than 50 global shale oil and gas leading industry speakers,

including:

Aubrey K.McClendon,

Chairman, CEO &

Founder, American

Energy Partners, LP

and McClendon

Energy Partners, LP

Jin Zhijun, President,

SINOPEC China

Petroleum E&P

Research Institute

\\\

Hector Moreira

Rodriguez,

Independent Board

Member, PEMEX

Ken Kirby, Senior Vice

President for

Development, XTO

Energy

Barry Goldstein,

Executive Director

Energy Resources

Division, DMITRE,

Government of

South Australia

Edward Morse,

Managing Director and

Global Head of

Commodities, Citi

Research

A full list of confirmed speakers can be found here.

The 5th Annual World Shale Oil & Gas Summit is

taking place November 4-7, 2014 at the Fairmont

Dallas Hotel, Dallas, Texas, USA.

Download our brochure for further information, or

email [email protected]

1st photo credit: Nightman1965, http://www.shutterstock.com/gallery-

376780p1.html

2nd photo credit: Calin Tatu, http://www.shutterstock.com/gallery-59511p1.html


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