© T. M. Whitmore

TODAY• “The Green Revolution” continued

© T. M. Whitmore

LAST TIME• The Fertilizer Revolution

Late 18th thru early 20th centuryCoincident with the development of

chemistry generally

• “The Green Revolution”

© T. M. Whitmore

How does it work? • The “green revolution” consists of several

things — “the package” 1) Dwarf, high yielding hybrid seeds (HYV)2) Irrigation3) Fertilizer4) Herbicides and pesticides 5) Often uses agricultural machinery

• Lacking the “package”: yields/ha are often NO better than traditional

• Infrastructure: (roads, markets, banking and finance, rural credit, agricultural extension, research capacity, national integration and policy making) necessary to develop and sustain the technological package

© T. M. Whitmore

Changes in an Punjab (India) village 1960s-1970s

• Changes are not just increases in output – the proportion of crops sown changesWheat:

yields up 2x as HYV monocrop increased proportion of village land

Rice yields increase 1970s as HYV

monocrop none planted in 1960s

Maize yields up as HYV monocrop increased proportion of village

© T. M. Whitmore

Changes in crops (continued)• Changes are not just increases in output –

the proportion of crops sown changes Cotton

little change in yield decreased proportion of village

Cane sugar little change in yield decreased proportion of village

Bersim (a form of clover) legume/fodder crop for rotations little change in yield decreased proportion of village

(stubble of maize/wheat used as fodder)

© T. M. Whitmore

Changes in technology• Technology

Irrigation: increased for winter cropping; better tube wells and mechanical pumps; worth it with higher yields

Soil amendments: increased chemical inputs for rice, wheat, maize; decreased intercropping and rotation

Tools of cultivation: hand tools and oxen plows still; add some rental tractors

Transport: ox carts & bicycles only before; better ox carts, motorbikes, some trucks

© T. M. Whitmore

Changes in technology (continued)

• Use and type of animalsDecrease in cattle (traction)Increase in buffalo (traction AND milk for

local use and sale)

© J. Jangoux

© M. Meade © M. Meade

© M. Meade

© T. M. Whitmore

Social Changes• Human populations

Total numbers grewProportions in upper classes lower

moved out or now manage larger farms; teach;

etc.Proportions in landless lower classes

increased now wage labor

• Tenurenumber of holdings decreased - size of

some increased

© M. Meade

© T. M. Whitmore

Social Changes (continued)• Public works

Improved roadsImproved templeLocal secondary school built

• Interconnectivity/dependenceRather self sufficient beforeNow reliant on

Capital (loans) Purchased inputs Petroleum Markets

• NOT clear that even though total output increased - wellbeing did for everyone

© M. Meade

© T. M. Whitmore

Problems & Successes – critics and apologists

• SuccessesImproved productivity 3-6 times as much

per hectareFar lower prices for main grain crops

world wideLower rates of extensification world wideVastly increased food productionLower proportions of hunger and lower

absolute numbers

0

1

2

3

4

5

Yiel

d (m

etric

tons

/hec

tare

)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Wheat Yield Rice Yield Maize Yield

Yields Are Up, But Growth is Slowing

World Resources Institute

© T. M. Whitmore

Problems & Successes continued

• Problems with the technology itselfChemical pollution

runoff can enter water tables and poison local water sources

individual farmers often have very little knowledge of risks using pesticides especially — thus compromising their health

© T. M. Whitmore

• Problems with the technology itselfSoil damage

chemicals, especial herbicides and other organic killers, can also kill micro organisms within the soils

very “tight” spacing of crops in the field lead to large demands on the soils for nutrients

tight spacing and mechanization can lead to soil compaction

Erosion & salinization

Problems & Successes continued

© T. M. Whitmore

Problems & Successes continued

• Uneven geographic and crop-specific impacts Little improvement in pulses and rootsLittle improvement in crops that are

mostly dry land (barley, millets, and sorghums

Late getting to Africa and Mid East Most growth 1960s-70s in Africa due to

extensificationMost growth in output 1980s - due to

increased inputs not HYVs per se Most benefits to Asia and LA

Progress in Feeding the World Has Varied Progress in Feeding the World Has Varied Widely by RegionWidely by Region

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Inde

x Nu

mbe

rs 1

961=

100

U.S.S.R. (former) AfricaAsia EuropeWorld Latin America

© T. M. Whitmore

Problems & Successes continued

• Impacts on large and small holdersDifficult for poor to afford the “package”Benefits of improved output mostly to

the already relatively better off

• Other criticisms Genetic lossPetroleum dependence (fertilizer)Dependence on irrigationDoes not “solve” the food problem

Food Supply Increasingly Relies on Irrigation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991

(per

cent

)

Africa Asia Latin America Europe

North America Oceania World

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991

(mill

ion

met

ric to

ns)

AfricaAsiaSouth and Central AmericaEuropeNorth AmericaOceaniaWorld

More fertilizer: More food, but more pollution