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The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political
Robert David Steele
Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 2
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Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000HIC Levels Off
LIC Business is Good
Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof
High-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict Internal War
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 3
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Conflict Facts for 200026 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 4
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Ethnic Fault Lines 200043 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 5
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Water & War
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 6
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Collateral Specifics for 2000
Complex Emergencies29 Countries
Refugees/Displaced67 Countries
Food Security27 Countries
Child Soldiers42 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Peacekeeping Forces18 UN, 20 Other
Landmines62 Countries
Torture Common94 Countries
Corruption Common78 Countries
Censorship Very High63 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 7
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10%
50%
25%
15%
State vs State
State vs Nation
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 8
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1. Break-Out 2. Black Death 3. Barricade (Good or Bad)
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 9
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Four Threat TypesPHYSICAL
STEALTH,
PRECISION
TARGETING
NATURAL
STEALTH,
RANDOM
TARGETING
CYBER -
STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
IDEO -
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
GUERRILLAWAR
CULTURALWAR
HIGH TECH
BRUTES
(MIC / HIC)
LOW TECH
BRUTES
(LIC)
HIGH TECH
SEERS
(C3I WAR)
LOW TECH
SEERS
(JIHAD)
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
TERRORISMECONOMICWAR
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 10
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Means - Ends Disconnect
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA Allies Russia China Rogues
MilitaryDiplomacyHome Front
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 11
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Presidential Trade-Offs$100 million will buy:
1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or
1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or
10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or
1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 12
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New Strategy: 1 + iii
CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME
Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Home Guard
Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol
Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security
1 ii i
Electronic
Reserve
Reserve Reserve
Minutemen
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 13
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Bloom on Biology of Intelligence
• When conformity enforcers silence diversity generators the group is committing mass suicide
• Language and culture kill half our brain cells
• Internal processing more vital than external collection
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 14
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Saul on Pathology of Reason
• Secrecy is pathological, undermines public confidence
• Intelligence is about disseminated knowledge, not about secrets
• Western thinking has been corrupted by its focus on industrial processes in isolation from culture.
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 15
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Wilson on Unity of Knowledge• All knowledge is related
and interactive--science without the humanities is mis-guided dangerous science
• Knowledge and education must be universally distributed within the public, not held back by selected policymakers
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 16
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McKibben on Missing Information
• Information is not a substitute for “being there”
• Television killed history--media only acknowledges reality for which film exists (last 40 years vice 4000)
• One day of human observation is vastly more valuable than one day of electronic noise.
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 17
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McKenna on Real-Time
• Forget about trying to predict or impose a future
• Instead, cast a very wide net of intimate probes for early warning of what your clients need
• Then be able to collect, process, and deliver in real-time, over and over again
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 18
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Davenport & Beck on Attention
• 1) Global Coverage for AWARENESS
• 2) Surge target-local focus for ATTENTION
• 3) Domestic political focus for ACTION
• 10 seconds for scanning, 3 minutes for attention: new standard for products
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 19
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Wheaton on Warning• Warning solution includes
– Casting wide early net
– Surging on potential hotspots
– Getting senior’s attention
• Options decrease as conflict escalates--seniors need to focus on crisis prevention rather than crisis management
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 20
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Pelton on Ground Truth
• Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud
• You don’t have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security
• We simply are not grasping essential ground truths
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 21
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Shawcross on Endless Conflict
• Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations
• Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict
• Good will without strength makes things worse
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 22
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Information Superiority
Information System
Relevant Information
Intelligence
Surveillance
Reconnaissance
Information Grid
Computers
Communications
Control
Command
Information Warfare
C2 Warfare
C4ISRISR
C4I
C3
C4
C2
Information Operations
Command and Control
Current Doctrine
INFORMATION UNIVERSERelevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret
Decision-MakerIntegration, Reflection & Decision
RANDOM
SECRET
EXISTING INPUT
normal staff process,
counterparts, family/friends
OPEN SOURCEINPUT
Internet &private sector fee-for-service
Information Management StaffCollection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation
1
2
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 24
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HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 25
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Real-World Information
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*27 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 26
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Competing Security Models
SI/TK
Selective Importation
System High/Firewall
Just Enough, Just in Time
Default to Validated OSINT
SI/TK
Validated OSINT
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 27
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Minimal Mandatory Languages
• Arabic• Catelan• Chinese• Danish• Dari• Dutch• English• Farsi
• Finnish• French• German• Indonesian• Irish• Italian• Japanese• Korean
• Kurdish• Kurmanji• Norwegian• Pashto• Polish• Portuguese• Russian• Serbian
• Spanish• Swedish• Tamil• Turkish• Urdu• etc• etc• etc
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 28
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TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
BIG CHANGE NUMBER ONE
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 29
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The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!
INFORMATION
TIME
Actionable Intelligence
Available Information
Open source information is more complex than secrets…
BIG CHANGE NUMBER TWO
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 30
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2%
50%
48%
Real-WorldInformation
Dead Brain
Starved Brain
“A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Waste….”Dan Quayle, Future DCI
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 31
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Policy Intelligence
Military Intelligence
Law Enforcement Intelligence
Coalition Intelligence
Business Intelligence/OSINT
Mass & Niche Media Intelligence
Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”
Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education
Pieces Not Coming Together
International
Coalition
Options
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 32
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New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 33
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Global Distributed Knowledge
National Distributed Knowledge
Government Knowledge
Intelligence Community
1B 10B 100B 1 TRILLION
ROI of 3N for a $1B Bridge to OSINT
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 34
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Striking A New Balance
TECHNICAL $$
HUMINT $$
OSINT $$
LIFERS
MID-CAREER HIRES
1-179 DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS
IC MANNING IC DOLLARS
UNCLASSIFIED
SECRET
TS
IC PRODUCTION
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 35
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PRODUCTIONTOOLKIT
Q ADIRECT ACCESS
TOOLKIT
MEDIATED ACCESS TOOLKIT
Internet Stream
Offline Stream
Human Experts“Temp Hire” Approach:
World Class/One Day Only
PROCESSINGTOOLKIT
INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS Call Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing
Commercial Feeds
Maps & Images
Feedback Loop
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 36
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Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
A
B
C
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 37
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ICMAP + NSA(P) = IC2
The Processing Advantage
50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 38
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OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 39
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New Rules of the Game I
• Informing Policy, not Collecting Secrets
• Global Coverage beats Hard Targets
• Translation in 28+ Languages Gets Serious
• Two Levels Down (Sub-State Intelligence)
• Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental
• Processing beats Collection for Dollars
• Geospatial and Time Tagging Mandatory
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 40
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New Rules of the Game II
• Global OSINT Benchmarking Finally Done
• Counterintelligence Across the Board
• Cross-Fertilization (Human & Technical)
• Decentralized Data Base (NGO, Private)
• Value = Content + Context + Speed
• Gap-Driven Collection instead of Priorities
• Needs-Driven Production vice Capabilities
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 41
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New Rules of the Game III
• Strategic Intelligence Matters More
• Budget Intelligence is Mandatory
• Public Intelligence Impact Public Policy
• Analysts as Managers
• New Measures of Merit
• Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing Rules
• Clearances Matter Less than Knowledge
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 42
®
Recommendations
• SAG Budget Analysis--cross-walk threat/$
• SAG Skunkworks--integrated experiments
• SAG Solutions--cost out now and future
• SAG Mentors--history, outreach, memory
• SAG IG--document shortfalls in collection, processing, management, and clients
• SAG PR--publish unclassified reports
®
The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political
Robert David Steele
Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….