New Sub-Council Area Projections in Scotland, 2016-based: Area definition

Councils are requested to confirm by September 18th their definition of small areas for updated demographic projections, to Sarah Christison at St Andrews (sfc3@st-andrews.ac.uk). This document details why and how.

The training sponsored by NRS in POPGROUP software is intended to provide the capacity within Councils to (a) use the sub-Council area projections (SCAP) published by NRS, based on the Small Area Population Estimate (SAPE) series from 2001 up to 2012, (b) update the SCAP with data to 2016, (c) develop the SCAP in-house as new demographic data becomes available.

Continuing the NRS SCAP directly is not possible, because the SAPE series has been rebased to use 2011 DataZones, which are significantly different from the 2001 DataZones used in the NRS SCAP. Therefore, the training is in two stages:

2012-based NRS Sub-Council Area Projections. In the training August 31st and September 1st at St Andrews, you will replicate and explore the NRS results for your Council Area, for population and for households.

2016-based Sub-Council Area Projections. In the training November 24th in Edinburgh, you will create new projections (to 2026 and beyond) for areas based on 2011 DataZones using updated demographic data for the period 2011-2016.

Additionally, a workshop in early 2018 will share local authority uses and possible developments to SCAP.

To make and use these new SCAP projections in your Council, you will need the following:

- Definition of sub-Council Areas. By default these will be the 2016 Multi-Member electoral wards made by aggregation of whole 2011 DataZones. However, some wards are too small or not as relevant to local services as other areas. You may define an alternative set of areas within your Council Area by specifying area names and the DataZones that make up each area, on the file New SCAP area definition. Alternative definitions must be agreed with the team by September 18th, so that the demographic data can be prepared. Please complete the file details and send your proposal to Sarah Christison (sfc3@st-andrews.ac.uk ) as soon as possible, or notify her that the Multi-Member Wards of 2016 are suitable.

- A license for the software POPGROUP. If you wish to make household projections and link the two for planning purposes, you will also need a license for Derived Forecasts. There is a discount of £500 on each of these software packages if ordered before the end of October. A summary of the costs is in the file Scotland - PG Users and costs, and the software is ordered from popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk.

- Experience with POPGROUP. To create 2016-based SCAP for areas within your Council Area, you must be proficient in the use of POPGROUP, for example by attending the courses on 31 st August and 1st September. Register with Sarah Christison at sfc3@st-andrews.ac.uk, or by completion of the POPGROUP User Guide 1.

- Register for the November 24th training. If you are not already registered, please contact Sarah Christison at sfc3@st-andrews.ac.uk.

We will be happy to clarify any of these details – please phone or email:

Ludi Simpson (tutor) 01274-591935 ludi.simpson@manchester.ac.uk

Alan Marshall (organiser) adm26@st-andrews.ac.uk (until September 1st then alanmarshall44@gmail.com)

Sarah Christison (Research student) sfc3@st-andrews.ac.uk August 21st 2017