© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2007 ® Chris Longbottom Director TNS Worldpanel – UK Higher...

© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2007

®

Chris LongbottomDirector TNS Worldpanel – UK

Higher Prices, Higher Volume, Higher Profits: The Business Case For PremiumisationNEC Birmingham 19 September 2007

http://www.fdin.co.uk/index.html


Agenda

Definitions and Drivers

Tradition / Quality / Provenance

Health

Chilled v Frozen

Convenience

The Ethical Consumer



Data Collection 25,000 Homes!



Agenda



Health

Chilled v Frozen

Convenience




What is a Premium Brand?

A collection of established consumer attributes attached to a product that enhance consumer demand and loyalty and enable the manufacturer to command a price premium

Attributes can be tangible or emotional



Attributes that consumers will pay more money for

Organic Environmentally Friendly Maturity or Freshness (Cheese, Bread) Decaffeination (Tea and Coffee but not Colas?) Granules (Coffee, Cup-a-Soup, Gravy) Mediterranean Lifestyle (Olive Oil, Fish, Tomatoes) Low Fat (Biscuits to Soup?) Speciality/Luxurious/Finest Ingredients Celebrity/Designer/Character endorsement Bacteria (removed - anti-bacterial or added - Yoghurt ) Ethical Trading / Provenance / Local Medicinal /Healthy properties Convenience / Time-saving



Bagging and Wrapping Tablets Capsules Gel Glass Spray Concentrated Non Biological Easy Pour Twin Pot Unique Shape

Formats that consumers will pay more money for



Real Household Disposable Income Per Head

0

50

100

150

200

250

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Constant Prices - Indexed on 1970Source: ONS Series IHXZ



Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure %

0

5

10

15

20

25

19

63

19

64

19

65

19

66

19

67

19

68

19

69

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV 2007=MAT to March



Cash-rich – Time-poor



What does this mean for Premium Products?

If you’re employed, you’re getting better off!

BUT……Things other than Food are absorbing this increase in Living Standards – Travel, Durables, Technology, Housing – Bigger-ticket items

Food & Drink’s share is diminishing all the time

BUT….this is NOT bad for Premium Products

We’re balancing things more………

Economising on Commodity things………

…..and Indulging in ‘The Better Things in Life’

When you’re used to spending out on big things, whats the problem with a little bit more on Foods & Drinks that you REALLY like?!



Agenda



Health

Chilled v Frozen

Convenience




Tea



Twinings Tea Bags - Performance Analysis

5.9

7.0

8.2

230217221

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

52 w/e Jul 17 2005 52 w/e Jul 16 2006 52 w/e Jul 15 2007

Sh

are

£%

0

50

100

150

200

250

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Tea Bags Price per Volume Index



Bread



Wrapped Bread Sector Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Organic Premium Economy

£m's

Economy

Premium

Organic



Warburtons Bread - Performance Analysis

13.2 14.0 14.7

18.0

21.322.8

24.8

158153 150 147 145

142

133

10

15

20

25

30

35

52 w/e Aug19 2001

52 w/e Aug18 2002

52 w/e Aug17 2003

52 w/e Jul18 2004

52 w/e Jul17 2005

52 w/e Jul16 2006

52 w/e Jul15 2007

Sh

are

£%

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Wrapped Bread Price per Volume Index



Tomatoes



Vine Tomatoes - Performance Analysis

27.1

31.933.4

148

158

145

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

52 w/e Aug 14 2005 52 w/e Aug 13 2006 52 w/e Aug 12 2007

Sh

are

£%

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Tomatoes Price per Volume Index



Plum Tomatoes - Performance Analysis

7.2

8.2

9.0

194200

193

6

7

8

9

10


Sh

are

£%

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Tomatoes Price per Volume Index



Fresh Soup



Soup Sales Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

Instant Soup

£%



Soup Sales Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

Instant Soup Fresh Soup

£%



Fresh Soup - Performance Analysis

16.5

18.919.4

233 234 232

10

12

14

16

18

20


Sh

are

£%

200

250

300

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Soup Price per Volume Index



Premium Private Label



Categories containing Tesco Finest

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007



Categories containing JS TTD

0

50

100

150

200

250

30020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007



Categories containing JS Organic / SO Organic

0

50

100

150

200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007



Categories containing Asda Extra Special

0

50

100

150

200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007



Categories containing Morrisons The Best

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007



Premium Private Label Sales Trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Sa

les

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

£m

)

Tesco Finest Sainsbury Taste the Difference Asda Extra Special Safeway/MorrisonsThe Best

Over £1.8bn a year & growing………Christmas is crucial:driven by Festive Food & Drink

Tesco Finest £800mJS TTD £625mAsda XS £200mMorr The Best £170m



Total Grocery - Demographic Map - Spend Profile %

Total Market

Tesco Healthy EatingTesco Value Tesco Organic

Tesco Kids

Sainsbury TTD

Sains BGTY

Sainsbury BPC+Kids

Sainsbury BasicsSains Organic

Sainsbury Freefrom

Asda Extra Special

Asda Healthy Choice

Asda Good For YouAsda Smartprice

Morrisons The Best

Morrisons HealthEat Smart

Morrisons Bettabuy

Somerfield So Good

Tesco Finest

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

% of Class ABC1

% o

f H

ou

se

wiv

es

Ag

ed

Un

de

r 4

5

52 w/e Jul 15 2007




Total Market


Tesco Kids

Sainsbury TTD

Sains BGTY

Sainsbury BPC+Kids


Sainsbury Freefrom

Asda Extra Special

Asda Healthy Choice


Morrisons The Best


Morrisons Bettabuy

Somerfield So Good

Tesco Finest

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

% of Class ABC1

% o

f H

ou

se

wiv

es

Ag

ed

Un

de

r 4

5

52 w/e Jul 15 2007




Total Market


Tesco Kids

Sainsbury TTD

Sains BGTY

Sainsbury BPC+Kids


Sainsbury Freefrom

Asda Extra Special

Asda Healthy Choice


Morrisons The Best


Morrisons Bettabuy

Somerfield So Good

Tesco Finest

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

% of Class ABC1

% o

f H

ou

se

wiv

es

Ag

ed

Un

de

r 4

5

52 w/e Jul 15 2007




Total Market


Tesco Kids

Sainsbury TTD

Sains BGTY

Sainsbury BPC+Kids


Sainsbury Freefrom

Asda Extra Special

Asda Healthy Choice


Morrisons The Best


Morrisons Bettabuy

Somerfield So Good

Tesco Finest

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

% of Class ABC1

% o

f H

ou

se

wiv

es

Ag

ed

Un

de

r 4

5

52 w/e Jul 15 2007



Tesco PL Lifestyle Indices

Tesco Finest

Tesco Value

“I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine”

158 75

“Price is the most important factor when buying a product”

76 133

Share indexed on Total Trade – 52 w/e Apr 22 2007



I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients

153

146

132

122

120

117

111

106

106

104

94

94

93

88

85

81

76

73

72

68

JS Orgnc + SO Organic

Tesco Organic

Sainsbury TTD

Somerfield So Good

Tesco Finest

Morrisons The Best

Sains.Be Good to Yourself

Sainsbury Freefrom

Asda Extra Special

Sainsbury BPC+Kids

Tesco Healthy Eating

Sainsbury Basics

Eat Smart

Morrisons Safeway Health

Asda Good For You

Tesco Kids

Asda Healthy Choice

Morrisons Bettabuy

Tesco Value

Asda Smartprice

Share indexed on Total Grocery - 52 w/e Apr 22 2007

TNS Lifestyles



Agenda



Health

Chilled v Frozen

Convenience






Flora Pro-Activ - Performance Analysis

39.0 37.9

34.1

293

273

298

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0


Sh

are

£%

200

250

300

350

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Low Fat Spread Price per Volume Index



Yogurt Drinks - Performance Analysis

8.5 8.9 9.2

244

272

248

0

5

10

15


Sh

are

£%

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Pri

ce

pe

r V

olu

me

In

de

x

Share of Yogurt Drinks Price per Volume Index



Innocent Smoothies - Performance Analysis

1.2

3.6

5.7

313

261

318

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Sh

are

£%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Pure Juices Price per Volume Index



Lifestyles – Innocent Smoothies

Spend indexed on Households – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007

I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 201I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine 191I Believe In A Holistic Approach To Medical Treatment 154I Try To Give My Children Healthy Meals 143I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 142I Look Out For The 'Healthy' Products 135I Read The Ingredients On The Pack Before Buying 134Inner Wellbeing Is Important To Me 129I Try To Lead A Healthy Lifestyle 129My Diet Is Very Important To Me 127I Try To Buy A Healthy Range Of Foods These Days 125I Would Actively Avoid Genetically Modified Foods 124I Try To Avoid Products Containing Caffeine 121I Would Choose Locally Grown Produce If I Had The Option 118I Make Sure I Eat Well-Balanced Meals 115Recently I Have Become More Aware Of Whether The Foods I Buy Are Good For Me 115A Natural Approach To Medicine Is The Best Method 114I Think Carefully Before I Purchase Items So I Know I'm Making The Right Choice 112I Prefer To Buy Low Salt Products If They're Available 111I Like To Keep Myself In Shape 108



Agenda



Health

Chilled v Frozen

Convenience




Chilled v. Frozen Trends - Value

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

£m

Frozen Prepared Foods



Chilled v. Frozen Trends - Value

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

£m

Chilled Convenience Frozen Prepared Foods



Chilled Fish vs Frozen Fish Average price per Kg

5.01

8.53

Frozen Fish Chilled Fish

52 w/e Aug 12 2007

+3%

+7%



Total Chilled Fish Demographic SignaturesChilled + Frozen FishSector Share within Demographic Group - MAT to August

01020304050607080

Class AB Class C1 Class C2 Class D Class E

2005 2006 2007

Social Class

01020304050607080

Age under28

Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

2005 2006 2007

Housewife Age

01020304050607080

1 in HH 2 in HH 3 in HH 4 in HH 5+ in HH

2005 2006 2007

Household Size

01020304050607080

No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH

2005 2006 2007

No. of Children



Total Frozen Fish Demographic SignaturesChilled + Frozen FishSector Share within Demographic Group - MAT to August

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2005 2006 2007

Social Class

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Age under28

Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

2005 2006 2007

Housewife Age

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2005 2006 2007

Household Size

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


2005 2006 2007

No. of Children



Chilled Fish Lifestyle Indices

Sector Share indexed on Chilled + Frozen Fish – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007

I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine 123I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 113The BBC Is An Institution That I Can Rely On 112I Eat Out Regularly 111I/My Partner Enjoy Cooking To Entertain Friends And Family 111I Try To Support Regional Food Producers 110I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 110I Believe In A Holistic Approach To Medical Treatment 109I Always Pay My Credit Card Bills In Full 109I Try To Buy Local Produce Whenever I Can 109Country Of Origin Is Important To Me When Choosing Groceries 108It Is Worth Paying More To Shop Where I Can Get In And Out Quickly 108I Try To Buy Environmentally Friendly Products 108I Don't Tend To Compromise On Quality If I Can't Find What I Want 107I Buy Free Range Products Whenever I Can 107I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products 107I Don't Mind Paying For Quality 107I Think We Should All Try To Buy More Fair Trade Products 107I Find It Hard To Spend All The Money That I Earn 107I Often Look At The 'Price Per Kilo / Litre' And Not Just The Pack Price 107I Try To Lead A Healthy Lifestyle 107



Frozen Fish Lifestyle IndicesIt’s More Important That My Children Enjoy Their Food Than They Eat Healthily 128We Often Visit Fast Food Outlets 128I Tend To Give My Children What They Want For Their Meals 124I Only Eat To Fill Up 118It's Always A Struggle To Pay The Bills At The End Of The Month 117People Regularly Smoke In My House 117I Work To A Strict Budget When I'm Buying Groceries 116I Consider That Price Is The Most Important Factor When Buying A Product 115I Find It Difficult To Choose The Right Brands Or Products 115I Try To Give My Children Healthy Meals 114My Children Eat What I Eat 113I Often Find That I Run Out Of Something Just When I Need It 113I'm Not Really Worried About Eating Healthily 113I Rely Heavily On Convenience Products To Make Cooking Simple/Quick 111I Am Always Under Time Pressure When I Do Grocery Shopping 109I Find Out About New Products From TV Adverts 109My Pet Is Very Choosy About What It Eats 108I Tend To Purchase The Same Items So Think Very Little About My Shopping 108I Have Little Time To Myself 108I Would Use Cosmetic Surgery To Improve My Appearance 108

Sector Share indexed on Chilled + Frozen Fish – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007



Fish Lifestyle Indices

Chilled Frozen

“I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine”

123 68

“Price is the most important factor when buying a product”

88 115

Share indexed on Total Fish – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007



Agenda



Health

Chilled v Frozen

Convenience




Fresh Fruit Market Trends

1,530 1,564 1,519

1,7731,961 2,111

3,3043,525

3,630

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000


£m Prepacked

Loose

+6.7%

+2.2%

+3.0%

-2.9%

+7.7%+10.6%



Fresh Vegetables Market Trends

1,145 1,109 1,155

2,592 2,6932,927

3,737 3,801

4,082

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


£m Prepacked

Loose

+1.7%

-3.1%

+7.4%

+4.2%

+8.7%+3.9%



Lifestyles – Prepacked Fruit & Vegetables

Prepacked Spend indexed on Loose – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007

We Often Visit Fast Food Outlets 128I Am Among The First To Buy New Products When They Appear 123I Often Buy Take-Away Meals To Eat At Home 117I Tend To Give My Children What They Want For Their Meals 116I Tend To Spend Money Without Thinking 115It’s More Important That My Children Enjoy Food Than They Eat Healthily 115I Look At Other People's Trolleys To Check I Have Not Forgotten Anything 114I Would Use Cosmetic Surgery To Improve My Appearance 114The Internet Has Been A Positive Innovation For Society 113I Often Buy Things Just Because I See Them On The Shelf 113The Brand Name Of The Clothes I Wear Is Important To Me 112We Really Enjoy Barbequing In The Summer 111I Like Introducing New Brands And Products To My Friends 110I Try To Give My Children Healthy Meals 110I Often Find That I Run Out Of Something Just When I Need It 110My Children Eat What I Eat 109It's Always A Struggle To Pay The Bills At The End Of The Month 109I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine 109People Regularly Smoke In My House 109I Like Trying Out New Brands 108



Prepared Fruit & Vegetables Long-Term Trends - £m

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Fruit Vegetables Leafy Salads Mixed Tray Salads

Fruit

Vegetables

Leafy Salads

Mixed Tray Salads





Prepared Fruit

Classic Salad Luxury Fruit Salad Melon Medley Pineapple Chunks Pineapple Slices Fruit Selection Pineapple Pieces Sliced Melon Selection Fresh Fruit Salad Fruit Salad Melon+Grape Mango Chunks Tropical Fruit Salad Melon Selection Mixed Fruit Salad

Sunshine Fruit Salad Seasonal Melon Medley Fruit Medley Apple Slices+Grapes Apple+Grape Exotic Fruit Salads Apple Segments Grape+Melon Mango Pieces Pineapple Cubes Melon Slice Red Grape Watermelon Pineapple Pineapple Rings



Lifestyles – Prepared Fruit


I'm Prepared To Pay More For Products That Make Life Easier 135The Brand Name Of The Clothes I Wear Is Important To Me 133I Often Buy Take-Away Meals To Eat At Home 131I Think Of Myself As A Brand Loyal Consumer 130I Rely Heavily On Convenience Products To Make Cooking Simple/Quick 128I'm Often On A Diet To Lose Weight 128I Eat Out Regularly 127I Tend To Spend Money Without Thinking 124I Often Buy Things Just Because I See Them On The Shelf 123It Is Worth Paying A Bit More To Shop WhereI Can Get In And Out Of Quickly 122I Am Among The First To Buy New Products When They Appear 122I Like To Pamper Myself 121I Don't Tend To Compromise On Quality If I Can't Find What I Want 119It Is Important To Me Which Brand I Buy 117I Always Tend To Spend More Than Planned When Grocery Shopping 114I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 113I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 113I Tend To Give My Children What They Want For Their Meals 113I Don't Mind Paying For Quality 113I Stick With A Brand Rather Than Try Something I Am Not Very Sure Of 113





Leafy Salads

Sweet+Crunchy Salad Iceberg Lettuce Watercress Italian Salad Crispy Salad Caesar Salad Mixed Salad Rocket Salad Herb Salad Rocket Bistro Salad Baby Leaf Salad Alfresco Salad Spinach+Watercress+Rocket Sld Crisp Mixed Salad

Leaf Salad Four Leaf Salad Tender Leaf Salad Crispy Leaf Salad Mixed Leaf Salad Rocket+Spinach+Watercress Italian Leaf Salad Fine Cut Salad Watercress+Spinach+Rocket Watercress Salad Baby Leaf+Watercress Sld Seasonal Baby Leaf Salad Sweet Leaf Salad Ruby Salad Santa Plum Tomato Salad



Lifestyles – Leafy Salads


I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine 152I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 141I Like To Keep Up With Fashion 125I/My Partner Enjoy Cooking To Entertain Friends And Family 124The Internet Has Been A Positive Innovation For Society 123I Believe In A Holistic Approach To Medical Treatment 122I'm Often On A Diet To Lose Weight 122My Diet Is Very Important To Me 122Others In My Household Often Influence The Brands And Products That I Buy 121I Look Out For The 'Healthy' Products 120We Really Enjoy Barbequing In The Summer 120I Like Introducing New Brands And Products To My Friends 120I Don't Tend To Compromise On Quality If I Can't Find What I Want 119The Brand Name Of The Clothes I Wear Is Important To Me 118I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 118I Try To Lead A Healthy Lifestyle 118I Read The Ingredients On The Pack Before Buying 118I Buy Free Range Products Whenever I Can 118I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products 118I Never Go Out Without Putting On My Makeup 118





Prepared Vegetables

Broccoli+Crrt+Cauliflower Sliced Runner Beans Mushroom Stir Fry Vegetable Stir Fry Broccoli+Cauliflower Flrt Carrot Batons Brussel Sprouts Baby Spinach Chinese Veg Stir Fry Bean Sprouts Mixed Vegetable Stir Fry Peas Young Leaf Spinach Runner Beans New Potatoes+Herbs+Butter

Vegetable Medley Mini Carrots Mixed Peppers Stir Fry Broccoli Florets Diced Carrot+Swede Spinach Leaves Roast Veg W Herb Lyrd Veg Wth Seasoned Btr Swede+Carrot For Mashing Crunchy Veg Stir Fry Cabbage+Leek Vegetable Selection Cabbage Medley Broccoli+Carrot American Style Salad



Lifestyles – Prepared Vegetables


I'm Prepared To Pay More For Products That Make Life Easier 128I Am Among The First To Buy New Products When They Appear 127I'm Often On A Diet To Lose Weight 126I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 125I Don't Tend To Compromise On Quality If I Can't Find What I Want 121I Tend To Spend Money Without Thinking 120I Eat Out Regularly 119It Is Worth Paying A Bit More To Shop Where I Can Get In And Out Of Quickly 118I Always Tend To Spend More Than Planned When Grocery Shopping 117I Am Actively Trying To Manage My Blood Pressure 116I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 115I Like Trying Out New Brands 114I Never Go Out Without Putting On My Makeup 114I Often Buy Take-Away Meals To Eat At Home 113The Brand Name Of The Clothes I Wear Is Important To Me 113I Like To Keep Up With Fashion 113I Like Introducing New Brands And Products To My Friends 113I Am Actively Trying To Manage My Cholesterol Level 113My Diet Is Very Important To Me 112I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products 112



Lurpak Spreadable - Performance Analysis

18.019.2

20.8

114 114113

10

15

20

25

30


Sh

are

£%

60

80

100

120

Pri

ce

pe

r V

olu

me

In

de

x

Share of Butter Price per Volume Index



Agenda



Health

Chilled v Frozen

Convenience




Free Range Eggs



Hens Eggs - 'Free Range' Share Trends

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

Free Range

Share - £%



Free Range Eggs - Performance Analysis

39.4 40.6

46.149.0

51.6

147140

133 131137

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

52 w/e Jul 212002

52 w/e Jul 202003

52 w/e Jul 172005

52 w/e Jul 162006

52 w/e Jul 152007

Sh

are

£%

100

150

200

250

Pri

ce p

er V

olu

me

Ind

ex

Share of Eggs Price per Volume Index



Free Range Demographic SignaturesHen's EggsSector Share within Demographic Group - MAT to July

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


2005 2006 2007

Social Class

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Age under28

Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

2005 2006 2007

Housewife Age

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2005 2006 2007

Household Size

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2005 2006 2007

No. of Children



Lifestyle Indices – Free Range Hens Eggs

Share indexed on Total Market – 52 w/e Dec 31 2006

I am prepared to pay more for organic food 147I buy free range products whenever I can 141Country of origin is important to me when choosing groceries 125I try to support regional food producers 122I feel good about buying fair trade products 120I try to buy local produce whenever I can 119I try to buy environmentally friendly products 119I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine 118I think we should all try to buy more fair trade products 118I am prepared to pay more for quality ingredients 118I would actively avoid genetically modified foods 117I believe in a holistic approach to medical treatment 116I read the ingredients on the pack before buying 116The BBC is an institution that I can rely on 113I would choose locally grown produce if I had the option 112I don't mind paying for quality 112I think supermarkets are becoming too powerful 112It is important to me which brand I buy 112I'm prepared to pay more for products that make life easier 110I look out for the 'healthy' products 110



Fairtrade



Fairtrade Coffee - Performance Analysis

6.0

6.5 6.5

124121 120

3

4

5

6

7


Sh

are

£%

100

120

140

160

Pri

ce p

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olu

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Ind

ex

Share of Total Coffee Price per Volume Index



Lifestyle Indices – Fairtrade Coffee

Share indexed on Total Market – 52 w/e Dec 31 2006

I am prepared to pay more for organic food 260I feel good about buying fair trade products 197I believe in a holistic approach to medical treatment 186Country of origin is important to me when choosing groceries 186I try to buy environmentally friendly products 185I try to support regional food producers 181I think we should all try to buy more fair trade products 175I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine 172I buy free range products whenever I can 168I try to buy local produce whenever I can 166The BBC is an institution that I can rely on 159I read the ingredients on the pack before buying 157I am prepared to pay more for quality ingredients 150I would actively avoid genetically modified foods 148I regularly take active exercise 145I/my partner enjoy cooking to entertain friends and family 141I think supermarkets are becoming too powerful 139My diet is very important to me 139I buy British whenever I can 138I look out for the 'healthy' products 138



Fairtrade Bananas - Performance Analysis

17.518.4

21.5

139

124131

10

12

14

16

18

20

22


Sh

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£%

100

150

200

250

Pri

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Ind

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Share of Pre-packed Bananas Price per Volume Index


http://www.fairtrade.org.uk/index.htm


Fairtrade Banana Demographic SignaturesPrepacked BananasSector Share within Demographic Group - MAT to end-March

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


2005 2006 2007

Social Class

0

5

10

15

20

25

Age under28

Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

2005 2006 2007

Housewife Age

0

5

10

15

20

25


2005 2006 2007

Household Size

0

5

10

15

20

25


2005 2006 2007

No. of Children



Lifestyle Indices – Fairtrade Bananas

Share indexed on Total Market – 52 w/e Aug 13 2006

I am prepared to pay more for organic food 181I feel good about buying fair trade products 160I try to support regional food producers 151The BBC is an institution that I can rely on 147I try to buy environmentally friendly products 146I think we should all try to buy more fair trade products 142Country of origin is important to me when choosing groceries 141I buy free range products whenever I can 141I try to buy local produce whenever I can 132I believe in a holistic approach to medical treatment 129I would actively avoid genetically modified foods 127I read the ingredients on the pack before buying 125I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine 125I buy British whenever I can 120I think supermarkets are becoming too powerful 120I eat out regularly 120I'm prepared to pay more for products that make life easier 119I am prepared to pay more for quality ingredients 119I would choose locally grown produce if I had the option 116I do not approve of gambling 116I look out for the 'healthy' products 114



As of March 2006, we are converting all the coffee we sell to Fairtrade; we are the only major retailer to do this, with tea to follow later this year. And we are extending our commitment further through areas such as cotton, honey, chocolate, avocados, pineapples, mangoes and bananas.

Sainsbury’s have announced that all its banana supplies will be Fairtrade certified is the biggest ever commitment to date by a single company anywhere in the world. Sainsbury’s sells 2000 tonnes of bananas (or about 10 million individual bananas ) each week. This move, when completed, will therefore more than double the volume of Fairtrade bananas bought by Britain’s shoppers.


http://www2.marksandspencer.com/foodmagazine/

http://www.fairtrade.org.uk/index.htm


Organic



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

901998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

£m’s

Total Organic Products

Annualised Value = £1.1bn



Lifestyle Indices – Total Organic Products

Share indexed on All Households – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007

I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 306I Believe In A Holistic Approach To Medical Treatment 199Country Of Origin Is Important To Me When Choosing Groceries 193I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine 191I Buy Free Range Products Whenever I Can 172I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products 168I Read The Ingredients On The Pack Before Buying 168I Try To Buy Environmentally Friendly Products 165I Try To Avoid Products Containing Caffeine 165A Natural Approach To Medicine Is The Best Method 164I Would Actively Avoid Genetically Modified Foods 162I Try To Support Regional Food Producers 160I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 155I Try To Buy Local Produce Whenever I Can 151I Think We Should All Try To Buy More Fair Trade Products 148I Don't Tend To Compromise On Quality If I Can't Find What I Want 143My Diet Is Very Important To Me 138I Look Out For The 'Healthy' Products 137Inner Wellbeing Is Important To Me 134



I Think Health Foods Are Only Bought By Fanatics 47We Often Visit Fast Food Outlets 55I'm Not Really Worried About Eating Healthily 57People Regularly Smoke In My House 58I Rely Heavily On Convenience Products To Make Cooking Simple/Quick 62I Consider That Price Is The Most Important Factor When Buying A Product 62It’s More Important That My Children Enjoy Their Food Than They Eat Healthily 70I Only Eat To Fill Up 72I Often Buy Take-Away Meals To Eat At Home 78I Would Use Cosmetic Surgery To Improve My Appearance 80It's Always A Struggle To Pay The Bills At The End Of The Month 80I Find It Difficult To Choose The Right Brands Or Products 81I Like Having My Evening Meal In Front Of The TV 82I Often Find That I Run Out Of Something Just When I Need It 82I Find Out About New Products From TV Adverts 83I Tend To Give My Children What They Want For Their Meals 83I Often Buy Things Just Because I See Them On The Shelf 85I Work To A Strict Budget When I'm Buying Groceries 85I Live For The Moment 85I Purchase The Same Items So Think Very Little About My Shopping 86

Lifestyle Indices – Total Organic Products

Share indexed on All Households – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007



Green & Blacks Chocolate - Performance Analysis

1.0

1.6

3.0

3.8

3.2

130

183194 198

122

0

1

2

3

4

52 w/e 21 Jul 02

52 w/e 20 Jul 03

52 w/e 14 Aug 05

52 w/e 13 Aug 06

52 w/e 12 Aug 07

Sh

are

£%

100

150

200

250

300

Pri

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Share of Defined Chocolate Price per Volume Index



Green & Blacks Demographic SignaturesDefined ChocolateRange Share within Demographic - MAT to August

012345678


2005 2006 2007

Social Class

0

1

2

3

4

5

Age under28

Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

2005 2006 2007

Housewife Age

0

1

2

3

4

5


2005 2006 2007

Household Size

0

1

2

3

4

5


2005 2006 2007

No. of Children



Lifestyle Indices – Green & Blacks Chocolate

Share indexed on All Buyers – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007!

I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine 251I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 247I Believe In A Holistic Approach To Medical Treatment 205Country Of Origin Is Important To Me When Choosing Groceries 187I Find It Hard To Spend All The Money That I Earn 171I Buy Free Range Products Whenever I Can 159I Try To Support Regional Food Producers 156I Read The Ingredients On The Pack Before Buying 156I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products 153I Try To Buy Environmentally Friendly Products 152I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 149It Is Worth Paying A Bit More To Shop Where I Can Get In And Out Quickly 148I Try To Buy Local Produce Whenever I Can 145A Natural Approach To Medicine Is The Best Method 145I Try To Avoid Products Containing Caffeine 143I Would Actively Avoid Genetically Modified Foods 143I Think We Should All Try To Buy More Fair Trade Products 139I Always Pay My Credit Card Bills In Full 139I Do Not Approve Of Gambling 138I Regularly Take Active Exercise 138



BUT………

Organic Foods & Drinks STILL only account for 2% of Total Food & Drinks. More in CERTAIN Categories but negligible in others. Strongest in Fresh Fruit, Veg, & Meat.

There has been a plethora of Failed Organic Products where sheer critical mass has proved to be SO difficult to achieve! Beware a ‘simple panacea’!

Ditto with Fair Trade which is even smaller despite headline-grabbing initiatives where there IS a case.

Again beware the dangers of failing to achieve critical mass!



Environmentally Friendly



Ecover Washing-Up Liquid - Performance Analysis

2.42.7

3.63.8

128 131 132125

0

1

2

3

4

52 w/e Aug 15 2004

52 w/e Aug 14 2005

52 w/e Aug 13 2006

52 w/e Aug 12 2007

Sh

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100

150

200

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Share of Washing-Up Liquids Price per Volume Index



Lifestyle Indices – Ecover

Share indexed on Total Washing-up Liquids – 52 w/e Aug 12 2007

I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food 273I Believe In A Holistic Approach To Medical Treatment 209Country Of Origin Is Important To Me When Choosing Groceries 207I Try To Buy Environmentally Friendly Products 194I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine 178I Try To Support Regional Food Producers 170I Buy Free Range Products Whenever I Can 170I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products 166I Read The Ingredients On The Pack Before Buying 159I Would Actively Avoid Genetically Modified Foods 155A Natural Approach To Medicine Is The Best Method 155I Think We Should All Try To Buy More Fair Trade Products 154I Try To Buy Local Produce Whenever I Can 149I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients 145I Am Happy To Do Most Of My Shopping At Smaller Stores 141I Do Not Approve Of Gambling 139The BBC Is An Institution That I Can Rely On 137I Think Supermarkets Are Becoming Too Powerful 136I Always Pay My Credit Card Bills In Full 135I Try To Avoid Products Containing Caffeine 135



Remember the Key Recurring Themes……. Health

Practicality = Convenience. Increasingly a ‘Given’

Enjoyment = Indulgence = Premiumisation

Broader Horizons

The ‘Right Thing’ to do, buy, consume = Ethics

Nutritional Informing

Getting the Balance Right = Credit/Debits in Food Values

As Food & Drink become MORE peripheral to our Total Spending, SO its easier to afford ‘just a little bit more for better’

A small return to Scratch & Homemade Cooking – but not like before!



…..and finally



®

Switching analysisOutlet Gains & Losses – 12-weekly



Arrow Widths Scaled for Size of Net Switch

Independents

Switching Summary 12 w/e July 15th 2007 vs 2006


http://www.somerfield.co.uk/site/home/index.asp

http://www.waitrose.com/index.asp


Changes in MAJOR Switches July 2007 vs July 2005Netted for Morrisons/Safeway

Arrow Widths Scaled for Size of Net Switch

Store Transfers

12 w/e 17 July 2005 vs 2004

M&S

Independents

Note DEcreases in magnitudes of Switches overall

12 w/e July 2007 vs 2006






Switching Headlines – July 2007 Tesco: Biggest Gains come from Somerfield, Direct Losses to Sainsburys

Asda HAD Disproportionate Gains from Kwik Save, now winning from Somerfield & Morrisons, BUT Losing heavily to Sainsburys

Sainsbury winning via ‘Food’ from ‘Price Players’, some losses to Waitrose

Morrisons gaining from Somerfield & KS, losing to Asda & Sainsburys

Somerfield now losing to Asda & Tesco

Iceland, Co-op & Independents losing to Tesco, Iceland & Co-op to Asda & JS too

Waitrose gaining from Sainsburys & Tesco – Shoppers upgrading

Now that the Kwik Save Switching Benefits are over, What will replace them?

Somerfield – even more?

Overall, Switching now MUCH LESS than 2 Years ago as Morrisons stabilise

Underlying Trend is UPGRADING to MORE Food-Value Retailers



Reminders



Reminders

Definitions and

Drivers



TraditionQuality

Provenance

Reminders

Definitions and

Drivers



Definitions and

Drivers

Health

Reminders

TraditionQuality

Provenance



Chilledv

Frozen

Definitions and

Drivers

Reminders

TraditionQuality

Provenance

Health



Definitions and

Drivers

Reminders

Convenience

TraditionQuality

Provenance

HealthChilledv

Frozen



TheEthical

Consumer

Definitions and

Drivers

Reminders

TraditionQuality

Provenance

HealthChilledv

Frozen

Convenience



TheEthical

Consumer

Definitions and

Drivers

Reminders

TraditionQuality

Provenance

HealthChilledv

Frozen

Convenience



http://www2.marksandspencer.com/thecompany/index.shtml


Thank you

[email protected]


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© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2007 ® Chris Longbottom Director TNS Worldpanel – UK Higher...

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