Date post: | 02-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | edith-allison |
View: | 213 times |
Download: | 1 times |
1
2waytraffic Acquisition Opportunity
GEC Presentation
TokyoJanuary 30, 2008
2
Executive Summary
SPE has the opportunity to become a leading global player in the high-growth, high-margin non-scripted light entertainment market
• SPE is actively building its footprint in light entertainment– Successful formats command high margins and a long-term steady income stream– Fastest growing segment in international TV due to high audience interest, ratings
impact and attractive margins for broadcasters– SPE has made strategic investments in key markets as well as grown organically – A further large acquisition in this space would enable SPE to be a dominant player
• 2waytraffic is
3
Economics of Light Entertainment
85 81
3643 37
69
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007
($ in
MM
s)
Revenue EBITDA
1,200
180
1,500
215
1,950
175
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
US
$ M
M
2005 2006 2007E
Revenue EBIT
`
1,275
135
1,500
170
1,725
200
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
US
$ M
M
2005 2006 2007E
Revenue EBIT
`
• Endemol and Fremantle are the leaders in
global light entertainment
• Growth driven by hit light entertainment
formats: Idol for Fremantle; Big Brother, Deal
Or No Deal and others for Endemol
• Endemol acquired in 2007 for $4.5BN;
Fremantle estimated to be worth $1.5-2BN
• Other examples: U.S. start-up producer
Reveille (The Biggest Loser) recently
acquired for over $125MM
Successful formats create high margins and significant asset values
Endemol Fremantle
• SPE’s top light entertainment formats Wheel
of Fortune and Jeopardy! have been highly
successful and generated $630MM in
revenues and $350MM in EBITDA over the
last 3 years
• At its peak in 2005, Endemol’s Big Brother
format generated revenue of over 200MM
per year
170
118
68
104
62
111
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2006 2007
US
$ M
M
Gross Margin: 26% 24% 24% n/a n/a n/a
EBIT Margin: 15% 14% 9% 11% 11% 12%
4
Trends in Worldwide TV Production
• Non-scripted formats – particularly Reality Shows and Game Shows - are the fastest growing
segment in global TV– 27% of U.S broadcast time is now occupied by Reality TV, up from 8% 5 years ago– Global formats market estimated at over $3BN, vs. $1.8BN in 2002
• Broadcasters increasingly rely on hit formats– Biggest ratings impact globally from shows such as Idol, Big Brother, Who Wants To Be A Millionaire,
Deal or No Deal, Next Top Model, etc..– Shows are easy to localize– Low cost compared to scripted entertainment
• Formats differ from scripted shows in many important aspects– Interactivity increasingly important– Formats have shorter life span than scripted shows
Non-scripted Light Entertainment formats are increasingly relevant to broadcasters and are driving global growth
Non-Scripted36%
Scripted46%
News18%
Reality Show27%
Variety18%
Talk5%
Game Show17%
Event28%
Comedy5%
2007 Worldwide TV Programs by Genre
2007 Non-Scripted TV programsby Type
5
SPE’s Light Entertainment Strategy To DateSPE is implementing a Light Entertainment strategy, in addition to its traditional focus on scripted comedies and drama
Latin America
GermanyRussia
ChinaItalySpain
U.K.
France
Hong Kong
U.S.
Netherlands
Strategic Goals: • Build a global pool of light entertainment creators and developers
– Pursue strategic acquisitions for faster growth• Increase emphasis on markets with proven creative credentials (U.S., U.K., Netherlands)• Facilitate collaboration and cross-pollination between operations• Leverage SPE infrastructure for global distribution
To further accelerate growth and become a major player in the Light Entertainment business, SPE needs to pursue larger acquisitions
– Slower, more organic growth would require less investment capital, but rapid consolidation of major players creates a serious execution risk
Current SPE Production Infrastructure:
6
Recent Light Entertainment Initiatives
• Maximize revenues from Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy!• Create formats for GSN• Strategic alliance with well respected producer Michael Davies – developed successful
format Power of 10• Potential acquisition of Davies’ company Embassy Row
U.S. Initiatives
International Initiatives
• Acquired French game show producer Starling in 2004 for $35MM (€25MM) – became cornerstone of SPE’s French operation and meeting projected business plan EBIT since acquisition
• Acquired 51% of Russian producer Lean-M for up $27MM (partially earn-out) in 2007– Very strong first year of operation, EBIT of $8.2MM in CY 07, vs. plan of $5.2MM
• Smaller investments: 15% minority stake in major U.K. producer Shine, 51% of up and coming Dutch producer Tuvalu, preparing start-up capital for newly formed producer Boom in the U.K.
• Assessing additional opportunities in Germany, Poland and other markets
US$ MM Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual
EBIT 2.0 2.8 2.1 2.2 3.4 3.5 5.9 6.1
7
The 2waytraffic Opportunity
• 2waytraffic is comprised of four main business lines:
– TV Format Licensing and Production (incl. worldwide rights to the hit format Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?)
– Participation TV: traditional Call TV and new business model Participation Advertising
– Mobile content production and distribution
– Digital content and services
• Founded in 2004, the company has a 42% public float on London’s AIM stock exchange
• An acquisition would establish SPE immediately as a significant player in the lucrative, high-margin
global light entertainment business
– 2007 Revenue of approx. $104MM and recurring EBITDA of $31MM (30% EBITDA margin)
• We recommend to acquire 2waytraffic at a total consideration of $353MM ($225MM upfront payment
+ $31MM earn-out based on Sony base case + $96MM debt)
– Expected post-tax NPV of $103MM (at a 10% cost of capital) and a 20% IRR (Sony base case)
SPE is proposing to acquire the Dutch light entertainment company 2waytraffic
8
Strategic Rationale for Investment
• 2waytraffic’s strong game show formats would establish SPE immediately as a major Light
Entertainment player
– Capitalize on Millionaire format and other attractive assets
– Strong combined game show catalog
– Leverage experienced production talent in 2waytraffic
• 2waytraffic’s strong formats sales group is a well fitting complement to SPE’s global production
infrastructure
– Proven sales executives from Celador and Endemol, very well respected in the market
– Sales presence geographically complementary (2waytraffic has strong presence in key growth markets
including China, Turkey, Russia, India)
• Proven capability to provide interactive features to their own and SPE’s light entertainment shows
• Strong track record in establishing innovative new business models with high margins
– Pioneers in Call TV business in Europe, now exploring new concept of Participation Advertising in the US and
other markets
– Mobile content and mobile advertising, as well as digital games
• Sony United Opportunities: possibilities for multi-platform exploitation with Playstation, Sony
Electronics and Sony Ericsson
9
Strategic Complement
Boom
Creative & Development
Production for local
broadcaster
Interactive Monetization(in-program,
mobile, online)
Worldwide format
distribution
Offline monetization
U.S.U.K.GermanyFranceItalySpainLatin America
Embassy Row/Michael Davies
• In-program applications
• Mobile
• Online
• Leverage of Millionaire relationships
• Global sales force
• Leverage of Millionaire relationships
• Merchandise
• Leverage of Millionaire relationships
SP
E P
oo
l2w
ayt
raff
ic • 2waytraffic creative
• Intellygents
• The Usual Suspects
2waytraffic is very powerful addition to SPE’s production value chain
10
Diversified Revenues
Type of Revenue Territories
2008E Rev and % of
TotalDescription
Format licensing
Worldwide$29.5MM(27.6%)
• Programme and format sales via offices in the UK and Netherlands
• Millionaire & other Celador formats (e.g. Brainiest, You Are What You Eat), and original 2waytraffic formats (e.g. 50:50 (Millionaire spin-off), F.A.B.S.)
• Creative in-house teams Intelligents and The Usual Suspects
TV Production
U.K., Benelux$18.9MM (17.7%)
• Production of Millionaire in U.K., other shows in Benelux
In-program interactive
Worldwide$5.8MM (5.5%)
• Provide SMS and online interactive features to catalogue of game show formats
Call TV Worldwide$11.3MM (10.6%)
• Low-cost, non-formatable call-in shows. Prior driver of growth, until recent industry-wide problems in major European territories; planned expansion into new territories, notably China, Indonesia and Russia
Participation Advertising
U.S.$6.6MM (6.2%)
• Qualified lead generation model
• New business model innovation, in test phase. Launched in U.S. in November 2007.
Mobile Worldwide$26MM (24.4%)
• Subscription business model selling mobile content directly to end-users and B2B advertising services to government organisations and corporations
• Mobile applications for 2waytraffic formats (e.g. SMS Millionaire games)
• Projected growth area, significant portion of revenue from the US
Source: Company data, interviews; Note: table excludes $8.7MM of other revenues from Merchandising, Digital TV, and Music Publishing (8.2% of total revenue in 2008E)
11
Financial Analysis: Management Case
• Aggressive growth in all business lines over the forecast period, particularly growth in new, untested business lines of participation advertising and mobile businesses
• EBIT affected by amortization expense of intangible assets (predominantly Millionaire and other formats)
The financial projections provided by 2waytraffic management are highly aggressive
Projections, $’000 Growth, %
Year to 31 December CY 07E CY 08E CY 09E CY 10E 07/08 08/09 09/10
Total revenue 103,754 129,168 159,733 188,162 24.5% 23.7% 17.8%
Gross Profit 53,902 64,586 74,315 85,421 19.8% 15.1% 14.9%
Margin, % 52.0% 50.0% 46.5% 45.4%
EBITDA 30,857 40,009 45,069 53,417 29.7% 12.6% 18.5%
Margin, % 29.7% 31.0% 28.2% 28.4%
Depreciation (896) (1,883) (1,815) (1,772) 110.2% -3.6% -2.4%
Amortisation (28,964) (28,964) (28,964) (18,829) 0.0% 0.0% -35.0%
EBIT 998 9,163 14,290 32,816 818.6% 56.0% 129.6%
Margin, % 1.0% 7.1% 8.9% 17.4%
Net Interest (7,302) (6,061) (5,019) (3,529))
Profit Before Tax (incl. one-offs) (886) (952) 9,271 29,287 7.4% n/m 215.9%
Tax - - (3,245) (10,150)
Net Earnings (886) (952) 6,026 19,037 7.4% n/m 215.9%
12
Financial Analysis: Sony Case
• Assumes flat performance of the TV format business and a significant reduction to Mobile and Participation Advertising businesses
• Synergies assumption: no synergies in 2008; revenue enhancement of 10% of the TV business revenues from 2009 onwards at a margin of 30%; no cost synergies
• Immediately accretive to Sony EBIT: expected to provide EBIT after PPA of $5.1MM in CY 08 and $9.6MM in CY 09
After detailed due diligence, SPTI established a more conservative base case
Projections, $000 Growth, %Year to 31 December CY 07E CY 08E CY 09E CY 10E 07/08 08/09 09/10Circa revenue 103,754 106,771 120,624 135,605 2.9% 13.0% 12.4%
Revenue Synergies 6,377 6,987 - - -Total Revenue 103,754 106,771 127,001 142,593 2.9% 18.9% 12.3%
Circa EBITDA 30,857 35,896 38,479 43,966 - - -Revenue synergies - 1,913 2,096 - - -Cost synergies - - - - - -
Total Recurring EBITDA 30,857 35,896 40,392 46,063 16.3% 12.5% 14.0%Margin, % 29.7% 33.6% 31.8% 32.3% - - -
Depreciation (896) (1,875) (1,794) (1,734) - - -Amortisation (28,964) (28,964) (28,964) (18,829) - - -
Total Recurring EBIT 998 5,058 9,634 25,500 407.1% 90.5% 164.7%Margin, % 1.0% 4.7% 7.6% 17.9% - - -
Net Interest (7,302) (6,108) (5,135) (3,767) - - -Profit Before Tax (incl. one-offs) (886) (5,104) 4,500 21,733 475.8% (188.2)% 383.0%Tax - - (1,575) (7,606) - - -Net Earnings (incl. one-offs) (886) (5,104) 2,925 14,126 475.8% (157.3)% 383.0%
13
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
• Implied sum-of-the-parts Equity Value per share is 91p
Based on the Sony case, the enterprise value of 2waytraffic is approx. $335MM, with 61% ascribed to the Millionaire franchise
OtherTV &
Ancillary
Call TV Participation Advertising
Group EV Net Debt(1)Mobile Content
Market Value
Implied Equity Value
19% premium to the current
market value
$204m
WWTBAM
$53m$19m
$16m$19m $0m
$334m $96m
$238m
$200m
Synergies
21% premium to the current
market value
$197m
14
Offer Structure – based on Sony Case
Public / Institutions
Private
InvestorManagement TOTAL
% Holding 42% 27% 31% 100%
Pay-Out at Closing
$119MM $56MM $49MM $225MM
Implied Premium at Closing
(46% premium to market)
(6% premium to market) n/a Blended price of 105p at 39% premium(2)
% of Shares Rolled-Over for Earn-out
0% 0% 50%16% of shares and
18% of value(2)
Total Amount of 3-Year Earn-Out (1) $0 $0 $31M $31MM
Total Deal Proceeds(1) $119MM + $56MM + $81MM = $256MM
$96MM
$353MM
+ Net Debt:
Total SPE Consideration:
(1) Assumes management achieve the Sony Base Case EBITDA over the 2008 – 2010 earn-out period
(2) Assuming management gets paid 120p upfront to arrive at the blended offer price for the 100% of the equity at closing
15
Earn-Out Scenarios Under Varying Performance
($ MMs)Implied DCF
Value (1)
Upfront SPE Investment**
Earn-out Payments
DebtTotal SPE
InvestmentSPE IRR
Management Base Case
$442 $225 $60 $96 $382 24%
Sony
Base Case$370 $225 $31 $96 $353 20%
Downside Case $274 $225 $7 $96 $328 6%
The earn-out payments provide downside protection for Sony and upside incentives for management
**Note: Does not include transaction fees. Based on 110p offered to Institutions, 80p offered to Henk Keilman and 60p offered to management for 50% of share upfront. Management is required to roll-over 50% of shares in an earn-out scheme. Earn-out payment is capped at the total implied value of 135p per share
(1) At 10% WACC and 2% perpetuity growth rate
16
Potential Risks and Mitigators
RISKS MITIGATORS
Regulatory:
• Call TV under pressure in key markets • Revenue mix increasingly less dependent on traditional Call TV (less than 20%)
• Re-focus on emerging Call TV markets, such as Eastern Europe and China
• UK production arm could lose Qualified Independent Status after SPE acquisition
• Strength of Millionaire format expected to help overcome Independence concerns
Operational:
• New, untested business models do not perform as management expects, and/or Millionaire format loses appeal faster than expected
• Earn-outs provide some downside protection to SPTI• Management has strong track record in identifying
and exploiting new business opportunities
• Key management retention and incentivization • Attractive upside potential for management in case of over-performance
• Complex integration could cause delays and distraction
• Integration plan and operational responsibilities post-transaction will be agreed with 2waytraffic before deal closes
17
Next Steps
• Finalize outstanding deal points
– Treatment of certain employee shares, limited materiality - $5-6MM
• GEC/Sony Board approval on January 30th / 31st
• Finalize legal and financial diligence
• Finalize operating structure
• Draft offer documentation (including announcement, offer document, earn-out agreement and irrevocable undertakings)
• Finalize offer
• Close transaction