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Health Education Kent, Surrey and Sussex
Surrey Workforce Update
“Through creative partnerships we shape and develop a workforce that impacts positively on health and wellbeing for all”
Introduction
2
The purpose of this presentation is :-
• To provide an update on the process followed to date • To provide an update on the 5 year workforce forecasts for
Surrey as presented at a recent workforce workshop• To provide an update on the education commission requests
for 2015/16 and any discrepancies• To gain the Partnership Councils view on the forecasts and
commissions and agree any actions• To present the feedback from the County Workshop
14/15 Outcomes
3
Overall response• 22 workforce and education commissioning templates sent out• 22 workforce and education commissioning templates returned• 22 organisations completed both workforce and education commissioning
returns to a degree• 17 completed the CPD template but not to the level of detail hoped for.
Challenges• Medical workforce forecasts• Five year forecasts• Occupation Code issues• Monitor Returns
Local Provider ReturnsAggregated within County and Overall KSS Workforce Plan
National Workforce Plan
Workforce Planning Process
SSK
EducationCommissions Health Education
Institutions
Input of Healthcare Professionals
Sense Check and Triangulate with• Providers• Commissioners• Each Profession• Regionally
Sense Check and Triangulate with• Providers• Commissioners• Each Profession• Regionally/
Nationally
The Year Ahead – Timescales and Process
5
Template and Process
February March April May June July August Sept October Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15
County Workshops
10th July HEKSS Workforce Planning and education commissioning event
30th May Return of HEKSS Template from providers
NHS TDA 5 year plan
NHS TDA 2 year plan
Workforce Planning Timeline
HEKSS Workforce forecast and education commissioning template released
NHS TDA1 year plan
Monitor 5 year plan
Monitor 5 year plan,Second cut
Monitor 5 Year Plan final
HEKSS return of Demand/ Forecast Template to HEE
25th September HEKSS return Investment Plan to HEE
HEE Formal board sign off of Workforce Plan
HEE National Workforce plan published
HEKSS Local Workforce Plan published
Planning
Triangulation
Plan Sign-Off
Publication
NICE Safe Staffing Guidelines
• NICE is developing evidence based guidelines setting out safe staffing for the NHS. This will include reviewing and endorsing staffing tools
• The focus of work will be on nursing and midwifery, including nursing support.
• The guidelines will help ensure an appropriate balance of staff numbers and skill mix on wards and in other settings
• As this new guidance programme develops other elements of the healthcare team may be included
www.nice.org.uk/About/What-we-do/Our-Programmes/NICE-guidance/NICE-guidelines/NICE-safe-staffing-guidelines
• covers staffing for nursing in adult inpatient wards in acute hospitals
• identifies organisational and managerial factors - from trust to ward level
• sets indicators to be used to demonstrate information on whether safe nursing care is being provided
• identifies red flag events which warn when nurses in charge of shifts must act immediately to ensure they have enough staff to meet the needs of patients on that ward
• no recommended nurse/patient ratio - providing patient centred care more complex.
Safe Staffing Guidelines
Nursing Forecasts
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
142.00
2523.09
2819.212933.44 2947.12 3001.85 3058.59 3118.36
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Adult NursingSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EAR
LIES
T IM
PA
CT
OF
CH
AN
GE
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
42.00
375.52401.86
422.83 432.83 432.83 432.83 432.83
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Midwifery TotalSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EAR
LIES
T IM
PA
CT
OF
CH
AN
GE
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
38.00
190.93204.90
196.19 189.68 189.68 189.68 189.68
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Mental Health NursingSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EA
RL
IES
T
IMP
AC
T O
F C
HA
NG
E
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
3.00
121.69127.72 127.65 127.60 127.60 127.60 127.60
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Paediatric NursingSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EAR
LIES
T IM
PA
CT
OF
CH
AN
GE
Nursing Commissions
18-month M
idwifery
progra
mme
3-year
Midwifery
progra
mme
Adult Nursi
ng
Children
's Nursi
ng
Learn
ing Disa
bility
Mental
Health
Nursing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
12
32
139
25
6
40
7
35
142
25
10
38
SURREY - Nursing Commissions 2015-16
2014-15 2015-16
Community Nursing Forecasts
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
12.00
67.5172.26
75.62 77.98 80.36 81.74 83.14
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
District NursingSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EA
RL
IES
T IM
PA
CT
OF
CH
AN
GE
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
24.00
172.31180.52
191.93200.55
209.18217.83
226.50
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Health VisitorsSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EAR
LIES
T IM
PA
CT
OF
CH
AN
GE
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
6.00
47.86
55.3560.47
65.5970.71
75.8478.97
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
School NursingSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EA
RL
IES
T
IMP
AC
T O
F C
HA
NG
E
Community Nursing Commissions
District Nursing Health Visitors Paediatric Nursing Practice Nursing School Nursing0
10
20
30
40
50
60
13
50
30
6
12
24
30
6
SURREY - Community Nursing Commissions 2015-16
2014-15 2015-16
AHP Forecasts
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
22.00
277.21 281.64 287.65 291.17 296.04 298.28 300.51
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Occupational TherapistsSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EA
RL
IES
T
IMP
AC
T O
F C
HA
NG
E
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
17.00
438.28 445.13466.88 477.17 484.11 490.07
427.58
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
PhysiotherapistsSURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EA
RL
IES
T
IMP
AC
T O
F C
HA
NG
E
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
11.00
175.83
196.29206.54
217.04 217.04 217.04 217.04
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Radiography (Diagnostic)SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EA
RL
IES
T
IMP
AC
T O
F C
HA
NG
E
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
14.00
95.64
111.86 113.86 114.86 115.86 116.86 117.86
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
2015-16 EDUCOMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTESIP
2014 FTEBASELINE DEMAND
2015 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2016 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2017 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2018 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
2019 FTE DEMANDFORECAST
Radiography (Therapeutic)SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
EA
RL
IES
T
IMP
AC
T O
F C
HA
NG
E
AHP CommissionsCh
irop
odis
ts/P
odia
try
Dia
gnos
tic R
adio
grap
hers
Die
ticia
ns
Occ
upati
onal
The
rapi
sts
Ope
ratin
g D
epar
tmen
t Pra
ctitio
ners
Ort
hopti
sts
Para
med
ics
Phys
ioth
erap
ists
Pros
theti
sts/
Ort
hotis
ts
Sono
grap
hers
Spee
ch a
nd L
angu
age
Ther
apis
ts
Ther
apeu
tic R
adio
grap
hers
Ult
raso
und
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
7 7
27
12
0 0
11
02 1
16
20
119
22
10
0 0
17
0
4 3
14
2
SURREY - Allied Health Professional Commissions 2015-16
2014-15 2015-16
FeedbackA workshop was held at the end of August to share with providers and CCG colleagues the revised workforce forecasts and proposed education commissions for 2015/16.Main areas of feedback• Adult Nursing – commissions look to meet demand. Further consideration needed
about placement capacity given vacancy factors.• District Nursing – commissions don’t look to meet demand. Needs further work.• Midwifery – overall commissions going down. Need to make decision about the 18
month programme.• AHP commissions don’t match the direction of travel of the forecasts.• Lack of practice educators for Health Visitors and School Nurses needs to be
addressed.• Broadening the Foundation Programme hasn’t been factored into the plans. Need
to look at Advanced Practice, Physicians Associates and Medical Technicians as a solution.
• CPD – need to ensure this matches with the future direction of health services.