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1
THREE CAUSES OF DYNAMIC CONTEXTS
Examples
CompetitiveInteraction
When incumbents and, especially, new entrants use a new business model they drive dynamism in market
Mini-mills entered with a new business model and incumbent steel companies did not respond
As industries evolve and competition shifts from differentiation to price/low-cost, advantages shift between rivals
Arm and Hammer almost lost its lead position when baking soda became commoditized
Industryevolution
When technological change is discontinuous, it does not sustain existing leaders advantages
The shift to digital photography favors the strengths of Sony not photography incumbent like Kodak
Technologicalchange
2
PHASES OF COMPETITIVE INTERACTION
Phase 1Discoveryand competitive new action
Phase 2Customer reaction
Phase 3 Competitor reaction
Phase 4 Evaluation of action and reaction effectiveness
Source: Adapted from K.G. Smith, W.J. Ferrier, and C.M. Grimm, “King of the Hill: Dethroning the Industry Leader,” Academy of Management Executive 15:2 (2001), 59-70
3
THE SPECTRUM OF COMPETITIVE RESPONSES STRATEGIES
Eas
e w
ith
th
reat
can
b
e co
ntr
oll
ed
Gre
atD
iffic
ult
Containment/Neutra
lizatio
n/Shaping/Absorptio
n/Annulment
Scope of response
Limited Extensive
4
CONTAINMENT
Containment
Neutralization
Shaping
Absorption
Annulment
Limit the extent to which the new entrant’s innovation impacts your business
For example: American Airlines can partially contain Southwest by using its bargaining power to secure more exclusive airport gates
5
NEUTRALIZATION
Containment
Neutralization
Shaping
Absorption
Annulment
Try to short-circuit the moves of innovators or new entrants before they make them
For example: The Recording Industry Association of America launched such a fierce legal attack on Napster that it forced even smaller Napster-like firms to stay out of the fray
6
THE TALE OF NAPSTER
Sol
d to
Sof
twar
e
Bus
ines
s so
ld
Business model options
RoxioSoftware and music
Software Music
SoftwareSonic solutions
Napster Music Bank-rupt
Subscription Unlimited downloadsfor $9.99/month
Streaming
Real-network's Rhap-sody lets music lovers listen as much as they want for one monthly fee
A la carteRoxio and iTunes sell single songs
7
SHAPING
Containment
Neutralization
Shaping
Absorption
Annulment
Shape the innovation so it becomes something the incumbent can live with or even benefit from
For example: For years the American Medical Association used regulators to attack chiropractors; now they shape chiropractic medicine to become a complement to traditional medicine
8
ABSORPTION
Containment
Neutralization
Shaping
Absorption
Annulment
Minimize the risks entailed by being either a first mover or an imitator
For example: In the late 1980s Microsoft purchased Intuit, the maker of Quicken and QuickBooks; because it identified money-management software as a high-growth opportunity.
9
ANNULMENT
Containment
Neutralization
Shaping
Absorption
Annulment
Improve incumbent products and services to annul an innovation or new entrant’s offering
For example: Kodak has improved the quality of its film-based prints so that they are superior to many digital-based alternatives
10
PROS AND CONS OF FIRST MOVERS
• Rapid technology advances allow a fast-follower to leapfrog the first mover
• It achieves absolute cost advantage
• The first mover’s offering strikes a chord but is flawed
• Its reputation and image advantages are hard to copy
• The first mover lacks a key complement (e.g., channel access) that the follower possesses
• Its customers are locked in (i.e., switching costs exist)
• First-mover costs outweigh the advantages of being the first-move
• Scale of the first move makes imitation unlikely
A first-follower is often better off than a first mover when:
A first-mover is often better off than a fast follower when:
11
A GALLERY OF FIRST-MOVERS AND FAST FOLLOWERS
Product Pioneer(s)Imitators/fast followers Comments
Automated teller machines (ATMs)
DeLaRue (1967)
Docutel (1969)
Diebold (1971)
IBM (1973)
NCR (1974)
The first movers were small entrepreneurial upstarts that faced two types of competitors: (1) larger firms with experience selling to banks and (2) the computer giants. The first movers did not survive
Ballpoint pens Reynolds (1945)
Eversharp (1946)
Parker (1954)
Bic (1960)
The pioneers disappeared when the fad first ended in the late 1940s. Parker entered 8 years later. Bic entered last and sold pens as cheap disposables
Commercial jets
DeHaviland (1952) Boeing (1958)
Douglas (1958)
The pioneers rushed to market with a jet that crashed frequently. Boeing and Douglas (later known as McDonnell-Douglas) followed with safer, larger, and more powerful jets unsullied by tragic crashes
Credit cards Diners club (1950) Visa/Master-Card (1966)
American Express (1968)
The first mover was undercapitalized in a business in which money is the key resource. American Express entered last with funds and name recognition from its traveler’s check business
Diet soda Kirsch’s No-Cal(1952)
Royal Crown’s Diet
Rite Cola (1962)
Pepsi’s Patio Cola (1963)
Coke’s Tab (1964)
Diet Pepsi (1964)
Diet Coke (1982)
The first mover could not match the distribution advantages of Coke and Pepsi. Nor did it have the money or marketing expertise needed for massive promotional campaigns
12
A GALLERY OF FIRST-MOVERS AND FAST FOLLOWERS (CONT.)
Product Pioneer(s)Imitators/fast followers Comments
Light beer Rheingold’s and Gablinger’s (1968)
Meister Brau Lite(1967)
Miller Lite (1975)
Natural light (1977)
Coors light (1978)
Bud light (1982)
The first movers entered 9 years before Miller and 16 years before Budweiser, but financial problems drove both out of business. Marketing and distribution determined the outcome. Costly legal battles, again requiring access to capital, were commonplace
PC operating systems
CP/M (1974) Microsoft DOS (1981)
Microsoft Windows (1985)
The first mover set the early industry standard but did not upgrade for the IBM PC. Microsoft bought an imitative upgrade and became the new standard. Windows entered later and borrowed heavily from predecessors (and competitor Apple), then emerged as the leading interface
Video games Magnavox’s Odyssey (1972)
Atan’s Pong (1972)
Nintendo (1985)
Sega (1989)
Microsoft (1998)
The market went from boom to bust to boom. The bust occurred when home computers seemed likely to make video games obsolete. Kids lost interest when games lacked challenge. Price competition ruled. Nintendo rekindled interest with better games and restored market order with managed competition. Microsoft entered with its Xbox when perceived gaming to be a possible component of its wired world
Source: Adapted from S. Schnaars, Managing Imitation Strategies (New York Free Press, 1994), 37-43
13
Status of complementary assets
EVALUATING A FIRM’S FIRST-MOVER DEPENDENCIESON INDUSTRY COMPLEMENTS
Freely available or unimportant
Tightly held and important
Bas
es o
f fi
rst
mo
ver
adva
nta
ges
Str
ong
prot
ectio
n fr
om im
itatio
nW
eak
prot
ectio
n fr
om im
itatio
nIt is difficult for anyone to make money: Industry incumbent may simply give new product or service away as part of its larger bundle of offerings
Value-creation opportunities favor the holder of complementary assets, who will probably pursue a fast-follower strategy
First mover can do well depending on the execution of its strategy
Value will go either to first mover or to party with the most bargaining power
14
STRATEGIES FOR MANAGING COMMODITIZATION
Managingcommoditization
Anticipating
Responding
Value-in-useapproach
Processinnovationapproach
Marketfocus
Serviceinnovation
Timken bundles commodity product with key components
Dell sells directly toconsumers
K-mart and KB Toys both reduced number of customers when they restructured
Hotels may charge extra forcable TV and computer hookups
Examples
15
EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION
Maturity
Maturity Growth
Disruption
Embryonic
Embryonic
Growth
Performance
Time
16
FOUR ACTIONS FRAMEWORK: KEY TO THE VALUE CURVE
ReduceWhat factors should be reduced well below the industry standard?
Raise
What factors should be raised well above the industry standard?
The key to discovering a new value curve lies in answering four basic
questions
Source: Adapted from W.C. Kim and R. Mauborgne, “Blue Ocean Strategy,” California Management Review 47:3 (2005), 105-121
Creating new markets:
A new value curve
Creating new markets:
A new value curve
Eliminate
What factors that theindustry has taken forgranted should be eliminated?
Create/Add
What factors that the industry has never offered should be created or added?
17
HIGH AND LOW-END DISRUPTION
Strategy that may result in huge new markets in which new players redefine industry rules to unseat the largest incumbents
Strategy that appears at the low end of industry offerings, targeting the least desirable of incumbents’ customers
High-end
Low-end
18
CONVENTIONAL VS. NEW MARKET-CREATION STRATEGIC MINDSETS
Strategic group andindustry segments
Industry
Buyers
Business model
Time
Product and service offerings
Emphasizes competitive position within group and segments
Emphasizes rivalry
Emphasizes better buyer service
Emphasizes efficient operation of the model
Emphasizes adaptation and capa-bilities that support competitive retaliation
Emphasizes product or service value and offerings within industry definition
Dimensions of competition Head-to-Head competition New-market creation
Looks across groups and segments
Emphasizes substitutes across industries
Emphasizes redefinition of the buyer and buyer’s preferences
Emphasizes rethinking of the industry business model
Emphasizes strategic intent-seeking to shape the external environment over time
Emphasizes complementary products and services within and across industries and segments
19
SOME WELL-KNOWN DISRUPTIONS
Compaq grew from zero revenues to $ 1billionin 5 years
Microsoft took 15 years to grow from boutique software firm to Goliath
Atari grew from $50 million to $1.6billion over 5 years, doubling every year
20
CREATING OPTIONS FOR FUTURE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE AND PROFITABILITY
Horizon 3Seed options for future growth business
Horizon 2Drives growth in emerging new business
Horizon 1Defend and extend current business
Profit
Time
Tactical
probing
21
IMPROVISATION AND SIMPLE RULES
Just as Jazz musicians can improvise when they play together because they follow a set of simple rules ...
... corporations can become more flexible by allowing improvisation under a set of simple rules
Simple rules
• Customer is always right
• Always run highest profitability products
• Never
22
STAGING AND PACING IN THE REAL WORLD
Source: S. Brown and K. Eisenhardt, Competing on the Edge: Strategy as Structure Chaos (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998)
British Airways“Five years is the maximum that you can go without refreshing the brand ... We did it (relaunched Club Europe Service) because we wanted to stay ahead so that we could continue to win customers”
Emerson Electric“In each of the last three years we’ve introduced more than 100 major new products, which is about 70% above our pace of the early 1990s. We plan to maintain this rate and, overall, have targeted increasing new products to (equal) 35% of total sales”
Intel The inventor of Moore’s Law stated that the power of the computer chip would double every 18 months. IBM builds a new manufacturing facility every nine months. “We build factories two years in advance of needing them, before we have the products to run in them, and before we know the industry is going to grow”
Gillette 40% of Gillette’s sales every five years must come from entirely new products (prior to its acquisition by P&G). Gillette raises prices at a pace set to match price increases in a basket of market goods (which includes items such as a newspaper, a candy bar, and a can of soda). Gillette prices are never raised faster than the price of the market basket.
3M 30% of sales must come from products that are fewer than 4 years old
Vision and Mission
Goals and
Objectives
Implementation
andStrategic
Leadership
StrategicAnalysis
Strategy l
k
The Strategic Management Process
Strategic Management =Strategic Thinking + Strategic Planning
StrategyEffective Ineffective
Execution
Excellent
Poor
Long Term Success
Maybe successful For a while
SuccessUnlikely
Failure
A combination of effective strategies and excellent execution
ResourcesResources
DistinctiveCompetencies
DistinctiveCompetencies
CapabilitiesCapabilities
Cost Advantage&
Competitive Advantage
Cost Advantage&
Competitive Advantage
Value Creation
Value Creation
27
REAL OPTIONS – FIVE CATEGORIES
1. Waiting-to-invest options. The value of waiting to build a factory until better market information comes along may exceed the value of immediate expansion
2. Growth options. An entry investment may create opportunities to pursue valuable follow-up projects
3. Flexibility options. Serving markets on two continents by building two plants instead of one gives a firm the option of switching production from one plant to the other as conditions dictate
4. Exit (or abandonment) options. The option to walk away from a project in response to new information increases its value
5. Learning options. An initial investment may generate further information about a market opportunity and may help to determine whether the firm should add more capacity
28
THE VALUE OF REAL OPTIONS
Total busi-ness value
DCF value Value ofreal options
Source: L.E.K. Consulting LLC, Shareholder Value Added: Making Real Decisions with Real Options (Accessed September 12, 2005), www.lek.com/ideas/publications/sva 16.pdf.
+ =Current business
value
Real-options
value
Total business
value