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Page 1: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2007

2007

(WMO) (IPCC) (IPCC) (UNEP) (IPCC) 2007

– 2007

(ISBN 978 0521 88009-1 Hardback; 978 0521 70596-7 Paperback)

– 2007

(978 0521 88010-7 Hardback; 978 0521 70597-4 Paperback)

– 2007

(978 0521 88011-4 Hardback; 978 0521 70598-1 Paperback)

– 2007

• •

• •

Page 2: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07
Page 3: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2007

Andy Reisinger

Rajendra K. Pachauri

Lenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson,William Hare, Saleemul Huq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ul-rike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno, Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, NevilleNicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravin-dranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci, StephenSchneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart,Dennis Tirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe

20072007

104[R.K Pachauri، A. Reisinger

Andy Reisinger, Richard Nottage, Prima Madan

Page 4: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2008©

2008

ISBN 92-9169-622-6

IPCCc/o World Meteorological Organization (WMO)7bis avenue de la Paix Tel. : +41 22 730 8208P.O Box No. 2300 Fax.: +41 22 730 8025CH- 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]

2007 ® ® ©

Page 5: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

1988

19971992

19951990 20072001 2005 2005

2006

200717 2007

500 2000

Renate

Christ

Rajendra K. Pachauri

2007

Bert Bolin30

2007

Achim Steiner

iii

Page 6: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07
Page 7: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2007 –

1

2

3

4 2030

5 –

6

2007

v

Page 8: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

(CD-ROM) –

17-12

2007

•Andy Reisinger

R.K Pachauri

Renate Christ

vi

Page 9: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

iii

v

1

23 25 29 135 243 355 463 571 6

75 76 90 92 94 100 102

2007

Page 10: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

{ }

Page 11: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2007

12-172007

Lenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson, William Hare, SaleemulHuq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ulrike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno,Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, Neville Nicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry,Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravindranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci,Stephen Schneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart, DennisTirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe

Page 12: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

-1

{1-1}1(2006-1995)

1850 1 [0.92–0.56] 0.74(2005-1906) (2000-1901)[0.8 – 0.4] 0.6 – 14 –2

{2111} - 1 2.4] 3.1 [2.3-1.3] 1.8 1961

1993[3.820031993

{11} 1-

1978% [3.32.1] 2.7% [9.85.0] 7.4

{11}20051900

2{1-1}

{1-1}31975

1970

{1-1}.1970

{1-1}1300

4

{2-1}

{2-1}

{2-1}

{2-1}

897529000-2

5%90%1

2

31%

19704

Page 13: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

3

0.5

0

0.5-

50

0

50-

100-

150-

4-

4

0

14.5

14.0

13.5

40

36

32

2000195019001850

- 1 1990-1961

{ 1-1}

{3-12-1}

{2-1}

{2-1}

=

=

=

Page 14: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

4

2004-1970

-2200419701990-15778000029000

75-320-2280002900070

2×2

{1-2}

89%94%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%100%98% 96% 91% 94% 94% 90%90%92%94%

355 455 53 119

NAM LA EUR AFR AS ANZ PR* TER MFW** GLO

5 2 106 8 6 1 85 صفر765 120 24 7645

28.115 28.586 28.671

3.52.01.00.2

2004-1970

-0.2-1.0

1-30

31-100

101-800

801-1200

1201-7500

7,5001

Page 15: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

-2

{2-2}70%

{2-1} 5-320041970

2004197080%

{1-2}2000 1750

{2-2} 379 2005 1774 650000

{2-2}1750

{2-2}6 7

{4-2}-4

{4-2}

20041970 -320042004

{2-1}

28.7

35.6

39.4

44.7

49.0

19700

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1990 2000 2004

1.1%

2.8%

25.9%

13.1%

7.9%

19.4%

13.5%

17.4%

56.6%

14.3%

17.3%

CO2 2.8%

7.9%

5

60.06+] 0.12+[2.4+0.6+] 1.6+

0.307

Page 16: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

6

-4 195019012005190695% - 5505895% - 5

{5-2}

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

20001950

1990

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

{2-4}{2-4}

{4-2}

{4-2}

{4-2}

Page 17: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

7

38

59

-3

{1-3} 2000

-5 2030 2000 90%-25

2030

{3-1}98 -1

{1-2-3}-5

0.2 20000.1

{2-3}-1

{3-2 ،1-2-3}

21002000

-5

B1A1BA2 2000 2099 - 2090

{3-23-1}1999-1980

A1B

B1

A2

B2

2000

(80%)

A1FI

A1T

2100 2000 1900 2100 2000

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

1.0-

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

eqyrGtC

O

Page 18: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

8

2099-2090210010

– 111

-1 102099-2090 1993-2003

{1-2-3} 11

{2-2-3}

{2-2-3} •- 6

{5-31-3-3}

{2-3-31-3-3}

-7

{1-3-3}– 2

{3-1} – 1

1999 - 19802099 - 2090 1999 - 19802099 - 2090

0.9 – 0.3 0.6 2000

0.38 – 0.18 2.9 – 1.1 1.8 B10.45 – 0.20 3.8 – 1.4 2.4 A1T0.43 – 0.20 3.8 – 1.4 2.4 B20.48 – 0.21 4.4 – 1.7 2.8 A1B0.51 – 0.23 5.4 – 2.0 3.4 A20.59 – 0.26 6.4 – 2.4 4.0 A1F1

2000 8232100

15501250850800700600A1FlA2A1BB2AITو B10.51899-18501999-1980

Page 19: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

9

A1B (2099-2090) 6 {2-3}1999-1980

12{3-3-3}

{3-3-3} •

13 • –

{3-3-3} •

• •

{3-3-3}

1750 0.1 0.350.14

{4-3-3}

12

13

Page 20: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

10

-7 B2B1A2A1Fl

{6-3 }1999-1980 2099-2090

1999-1980 2099-2090

6.4°C5.4°C

0 1 2 3 4 5

1999-1980

50 1 2 3 4

30% ‡

30%

40% ~15%~

50 1 2 3 4

2080-20004.2 ‡40% †

Page 21: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

11

{2-3-3}-2

250752020 •502020 •

10%5% •

20808%5

2020 •

2030 •

2030 •

2050 •

•208060%

•20%5%

Page 22: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

12

{5-3-3}

– 3

{3-2-3}

– 8

2100

4.61.9 125 000

{3-2-3}64

{3-2-3}

– 6 – 8 – 6 0.52100 1999-1980

850A1B600B1 3 %7065

{4-3} – 11

1999-1980

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1999-1980

Page 23: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

13

– 3

{2-3}

{4-3}

{4-3}

%30 20 2.51.5

7-3

2100

{5-44-4}

{4-3}

{4-82-8}

{5-44-7}

Page 24: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

14

1999-1980

3.5{4-3}%70-40

{4-3}

14-4

{2-4}

{2-4}

-4

{1-42-4}

{2-4}

{2-4}

15– 109

{3-4}

{3-4}-56 2030

{3-4}

14

15

Page 25: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

15

{1-4}-4

203020051620

20302005

{3-4} .%10%5

20 x 12102000020 16

Page 26: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

16

2030 – 10{2-4}

B2 A1BB22004A1B

B2

15%10

2030

2.4-4.7 0.4-1.0 1.3-4.22.3-6.42.5-5.5 5.3-6.71.6-2.5

US$100/tCO2-eq in GtCO2-eq/yr:

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

< 100

< 50< 20< 10

0< 50< 20

< 100

< 50< 20< 10

0< 50< 20

< 100

< 50< 20< 10

0< 50< 20

< 100

< 50< 20

2030 – 9 40.8 2000 2000

{4-1}

2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

A1FI A2 A1B A1T B1B2

Gt CO2-eq

< 0 < 20 < 50 < 100 US$/tCO2-eq

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

< 20 < 50 < 100 US$/tCO2-eq

2000

Gt CO2-eq Gt CO2-eq

2030

2000

2030

2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Page 27: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

17

{2-4}

– 5

Page 28: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

18

– 5

{3-4}

{3-4} 80205502030

2100 65 5

{3-4}172030

{3-4}

{3-4}18

{3-4}

{3-4}

{5-4}

{5-4}

{8-54-4}

{8-5}

-5

}

{5

19 –}

{

17

18

19

Page 29: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

19

{2-5}

{5-2} • %3020

2.5 1.5 1999-1980

21 2.5 – 1.51999 31

{5-2} •

{5-2} • {5-2}

{5-2} •

{5-2}

{5-3}

{2-53-5}

{3-54-57-5}

{4-5} 20 – 11 6 21

– 62090201520

Page 30: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

20

– 6 {1-5 }

6 1.4 – 0.4 2.4 – 2.0 50-85- 2015 – 2000 490 – 445 400 – 350 18 1.7 – 0.5 2.8 – 2.4 30-60- 2020 – 2000 535 – 490 440 – 400 21 1.9 – 0.6 3.2 – 2.8 5+30- 2030 – 2010 590 – 535 485 – 440

118 2.4 – 0.6 4.0 – 3.2 60+10+ 2060 – 2020 710 – 590 570 – 485 9 2.9 – 0.8 4.9 – 4.0 85+25+ 2080 – 2050 855 – 710 660 – 570 5 3.7 – 1.0 6.1 – 4.9 140+90+ 2090 – 2060 1130 – 855 790 – 660

3-220052005379

375455 85 15

– 33

2121502100

(EMICs) (AOGCM)3

0,60,2

21

– 11

{4-57-5}

4.61.9

{3-54-5}

{5-5}

80%60

{5-5}

{5-5}

379 =2005

375 =2005

2050

2000

Page 31: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

21

2050 2030 7-{2-5}

21002000 2000 1940 – 11 3 1 3 4.5 290 10 (2000)

{1-5}

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

20-

10

8

6

4

2

0

100090

080

070

060

050

040

030

028

019

4019

6019

8020

0020

2020

4020

6020

8021

00

1719

– 722

{6-5}

2050445710%5.5%1– 7 0.12

{6-5}

2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030

0.12 > 0.12 > 5.5 > 3 > 535 – 445

0.1 > 0.1 > 4 2.50.2 1.3 0.6 590 – 535

0.05 > 0.06 > 2-1 1.2-0.6 0.5 0.2 710 – 590

535-4459010

20502030

Page 32: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

22

23

{1-5}12232005 953-100

{7-5}

{7-5}

{4-5}

{7-5}

Page 33: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

Lenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson, William Hare, SaleemulHuq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ulrike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno,Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, Neville Nicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry,Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravindranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci,Stephen Schneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart, DennisTirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe

Terry Barker

Abdelkader Allali, Roxana Bojariu, Sandra Diaz, Ismail Elgizouli, Dave Griggs, David Hawkins, Olav Hohmeyer,Bubu Pateh Jallow, Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj, Neil Leary, Hoesung Lee, David Wratt

2007

(IPCC)200717-12

Page 34: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07
Page 35: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

26

- 1

- 12001

Page 36: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

27

http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/ar4-workshops-express-meetings/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf 1

1

105108109

101102 50%<66% <90% <95% <99% <

1% >5% >10% >33% >66%33%

90%5%

Page 37: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

1

Page 38: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

1

30

1-1

{ –}

4-83-2}1-1

{5-55-2 (2006-1995) – 0.56] 0.74 (2005-1906) 1850 (0.8 – 0.4) 0.6 [0.921-1(2000-1901) – 0.10] 0.13) 2005 1956 [0.16

{2-3}200519062-1 5-2 2-1 196180%3000

{2-54-32-3}

1-1 [2.3 – 1.3] 1.81993[3.8 – 2.4] 3.1200319611993 2003 1993 2003

57% 28%

20031993 – 15-58-46-4 }

{ 19781-13.32.12.7 9.8 5.0 7,4 7% 1900 15%

3 {5-58-47-46-45-42-3}

20051900

1 }

{9-33-3

=}

{8-3 =

{8-3} =8-3}

{9-32 =}1975

{5-51970 1970 }

{8-3 50

6-6 } 1300 {

11%2

Page 39: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

1

31

0.5

0

0.5-

50

0

50-

100-

150-

4-

4

0

14.5

14.0

13.5

40

36

32

2000195019001850

1-11990 – 1961 – –}

{-313-52-411-3

2-1

1970 – }

{ 2 }

{ –

{ –}

– 3-1 } =

{ =

{– 3-1} = 3-1 4-4 }

{– 4-15 }

{– 3-12-15

Page 40: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

1

32

– 1-257780000290002004-1970(3)20(2)1990(1)28000290007075

12 X 22

{9-39-18-1– 1 –}

89%94%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%100%98% 96% 91% 94% 94% 90%90%92%94%

355 455 53 119

NAM LA EUR AFR AS ANZ PR* TER MFW** GLO

5 2 106 8 6 1 85 صفر765 120 24 7645

28.115 28.586 28.671

3.52.01.00.2

2004-1970

-0.2-1.0

1-30

31-100

101-800

801-1200

1201-7500

7,5001

2004-1970

Page 41: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

1

33

2-14 2-8 3-1 }

{ }

{3-1

{}

=3-1 }

{ = – 82-83-1}

{

=

{3-1} – 13-1}

{

3-1

89% 7529000}2-1

{4-1

4-1

{– 3-54-48-32-3}

Page 42: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

Page 43: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

36

4

1-2

} 51-220041970%70

{3-1

382120041970%801-22004%77

0.922007-1995 0.431994-197013-1}

{

–421750

5

67

• 6

10-2 •

7

200420041970 1-2211 –}2004

{

28.7

35.6

39.4

44.7

49.0

19700

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1990 2000 2004

1.1%

2.8%

25.9%

13.1%

7.9%

19.4%

13.5%

17.4%

56.6%

14.3%

17.3%

CO2 2.8%

7.9%

20041970 1-2

Page 44: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

37

2004 - 2-22004

{33}

and M&Tand

M&

T

(2000)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

05000040000300002000010000600050004000300020001000 00

– 3-1}2004.{

(%33-) (%77) 2004 1970 (%69)20002 3-1}

{ 2004 %20%57}2-2%46

{3-1

2-2

4

{2}

17503-22005

650000}

{– 3-73-2

2005379280

1.92005-19951.42005-1960}

{3-1– 3-73-2715 1732 20051774}

{– 4-73-2

270}2005319

{– 4-73-2 –– 3-2}

{

1750[+2.40.6+] 1.6+

{ – 9-25-63-2}4-2

[2.52.1+] 2.3+

Page 45: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

38

4-23-220051995%20

{– 4-63-2} [0.1-0.9-] -0.5[0.3-1.8-] 0.7-

{– 5-79-24-2}1750 [0.30 + 0.06+] 0.12+ }

{– 7-2

3-2

4.52 1.534.56-8}

{2-106-9

} – 5-2 3-1-2 2-9 6-8 8-2

{7-3}

{4-44-5

4-2

{– 4}

10 -2-3 17501970

{1}

400

300

200019001800

350

1

0

350

250

2000

1500

1000

500

330

300

270

240200019001800

200019001800

0

0.2

0.4

2000

1500

1000

500

330

300

270

2005

0.1

0

050001000

Page 46: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

39

175095%52005 2-4

{– 2}

(CO2)

[1.49 إلى 1.83] 1.66

[0.53 0.43] 0.48

[0.18 0.14] 0.16[0.37 0.31] 0.34

[0.65 0.25] 0.35

[0.12 0.02] 0.07

[0.05 -0.15] 0.05

[0.0 0.4-] 0.2-

[0.2 0.0] 0.1

[0.1- 0.9-] 0.5-

[0.3- 1.8-] 0.7-

[0.03 0.003] 0.01

[0.30 0.06] 0.12

[2.4 0.6] 1.6

(N2O)

(CH2)

210-1-2

8 – 4-9 } 5-2

{

7-95-94-95-72-58-44-32-39-2}

{1-4

5-2

{4-92-3}

2-3}

{2-44-9

8

Page 47: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

40

5-250%19501901200519065895%-595%-5

{4}

{4-9،3-8}

5-94-9}

{

3-105-94-96-35-3}

{

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

20001950

1990

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

Page 48: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

2

41

}3-41-4 5-95-53-3

{

{4-1}

– 4-92-3}

{4-1

– 4-13-12-1 }

{

Page 49: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

3

Page 50: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

3

44

1-3

9 (SRES, 2000)

{2-33-1} 10(3-1)

(SRES)36.7 9.72030 2000(90%-25)20303-1}110%4020302000

{ 2030}

{3 - 2-3 }

{ 3 - 2-3

910

511

(PPP) (MER)} (MER)

{

(SRES)(SRES)(A1, A2, B1, B2)(SRES, 2000)

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20002100

post-SRES (max)

post-SRES (min)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

200

180

160

140

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Page 51: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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45

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(AOGCMs)

(AOGCMs)2000 1FIA2A1BB2AITB18232100

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Page 52: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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46

3-2-2

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Page 53: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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47

21004.61.94.61.9125000}64

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7-106-4}

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{35-1012-73-103-74-3

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Page 54: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

3

48

3-3

{- 4}14151999 – 1980

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Page 55: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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49

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Page 56: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

3

50

17

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Page 57: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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51

3-6 B2B1A2A1FI*10-75}1990-19802099-2090

{3-10223-5-13-5-14-5B 4.5=F=B=T= ES *

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3.5.1, T3.3, 20.6.2,TS.B5

4.ES, 4.4.11

4.ES, T4.1, F4.2,F4.4

19.3.5

4.2.2, 4.4.1, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, 4.4.6, 4.4.10, B4.5

5.ES, 5.4.7

5.ES, 5.4.2, F5.2

5.ES, 5.4.2, F5.2

6.ES, 6.3.2, 6.4.1, 6.4.2

6.4.1

T6.6, F6.8, TS.B5

8.ES, 8.4.1, 8.7, T8.2, T8.48.ES, 8.2.2, 8.2.3, 8.4.1, 8.4.2, 8.7, T8.3, F8.38.ES, 8.2.8, 8.7, B8.4

T4.1, F4.4, B4.4,6.4.1, 6.6.5, B6.1

8.6.1

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1999-1980

30%

40% 15%

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Page 58: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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Page 59: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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53

3-2

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Page 60: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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54

4.61.97-104-63-2-3}

{3-1930%201999-19802.51.53.540%-703.5 {24-4}

(MOC) 3-10- 5 27-10

}

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Page 61: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

4

Page 62: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

4

56

1-4

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}{8-203-205-181-182-17

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Page 63: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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57

:1 – 4

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Page 64: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

4

58

3-4

21 21

{3-11}4-120302000203021 6 2030 3-11}22

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{} 203020052320 20302005

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5

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35

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2000

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5

10

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20

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35

Page 65: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

4

59

2030

20302-4{6}

B2 A1BA1BB22004

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Page 66: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

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60

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Page 67: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

4

61

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Page 68: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

4

62

5-4

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2012 2% – 0.2 1.1% –0.1 3-134-114-1}

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Page 69: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

Page 70: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

64

1-5

} 20-9

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25

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{}

Page 71: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

65

} -3-23-63-43-316 -15-615-415 -14-4-66-44-4412 5-3 19-3-7 19-1 16-4 16-2-1

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Page 72: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

66

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140

120

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Page 73: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

67

2050

2000

6 1.4 – 0.4 2.4 – 2.0 50-85- 2015 – 2000 490 – 445 400 – 350 18 1.7 – 0.5 2.8 – 2.4 30-60- 2020 – 2000 535 – 490 440 – 400 21 1.9 – 0.6 3.2 – 2.8 5+30- 2030 – 2010 590 – 535 485 – 440 118 2.4 – 0.6 4.0 – 3.2 60+10+ 2060 – 2020 710 – 590 570 – 485 9 2.9 – 0.8 4.9 – 4.0 85+25+ 2080 – 2050 855 – 710 660 – 570 5 3.7 – 1.0 6.1 – 4.9 140+90+ 2090 – 2060 1130 – 855 790 – 660

2-3

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379=2005

375=2005

1-5{53-10210-7}

Page 74: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

68

AIM2100-20002030-20002-5650540-490MESSAGEIPACIMAGE540-490650(AIM)(IPAC AIM)}(2100-2000)70006000

{9

2100-20002030-2000

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Page 75: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

69

6-5

}

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535-4459010

20502030

Page 76: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

5

70

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{3-63-5

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Page 77: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

6

Page 78: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

6

72

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Page 79: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

6

73

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{12-2}

Page 80: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

75

(SYR)(IPCC)(IPCC)

(IPCC)

– •

(IPCC)

Page 81: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

76

AAbrupt climate change

Absorption, scattering and emission of radiation

Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ)

4.2

Adaptation

Adaptation benefits

Adaptation costs

Adaptive capacity

Aerosols

100,01

Afforestation

(IPCC, 2000)

(IPCC, 2003)

Aggregate impacts

Albedo

Albedo feedback

(0.3~)(0.8~)

Algal bloom

Alpine

Alfons P.M. Baede :المحرر

Aviel Verbruggen Paul van der Linden

Page 82: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

77

Annex I countries

1998 4.2 4.2

20001999.http://unfccc.int

Annex II countries

1990 4.2

.http://unfccc.int

Annex B countries

1998.http://unfccc.int

Anthropogenic

Anthropogenic emissions

Arid region

250

Atmosphere

20.9 78.1 0.93 0.035 1

Attribution

Detection and attribution

BBarrier

Baseline

Basin

Biodiversity

Biofuel

Biomass

Biome

Biosphere (terrestrial and marine)

Boreal forest

Borehole temperature

Bottom-up models

CCarbon (Dioxide) Capture and Storage (CCS)

Carbon cycle

Carbon dioxide (CO2)1

Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilisation

Page 83: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

78

Carbon intensity

Carbon leakage

(1)(2)

(3)

Carbon sequestration

Uptake

Catchment

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

Halocarbons

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

12(1)

(2)

Climate

(WMO) 30

20

Climate-carbon cycle coupling

Climate change

(UNFCCC)

Climate variability; Detection and Attribution

Climate feedback

Climate model

Climate prediction

Climate

.Climate scenarioو projection

Climate projection

Climate response

Climate sensitivity

Climate scenario

Climate sensitivity

Page 84: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

79

20170

Climate shift

1977/1976

Climate system

Climate variability

Climate Change

Cloud feedback

CO2-equivalent

2 (CO2-eq) 2-10

CO2-fertilization

Co-benefits

Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

Compliance

Confidence

Coral

Coral bleaching

Coral reefs

Cost

Cryosphere

Glacier; Ice sheet

DDeforestation

(IPCC, 2000)Report on Definitions and MethodologicalOptions to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests andDevegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003).

Demand-side management (DSM)

Detection and attribution

109108105102

10

Page 85: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

80

Development path or pathway

Discounting

<

Discount rate

Discounting

Drought

(Heime, 2002)

Dynamical ice discharge

EEconomic (mitigation) potential

Mitigation Potential

Economies in Trasition (EITs)

Ecosystem

EL Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

(ENSO) –

(La Niňa)

Emission scenario

– (1992)(IPCC)1996 ،IPCC IS922000

(SRES)

Emissions trading

17

Emission trajectory

Eneyrg

Energy balance

Energy efficiency

Page 86: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

81

Energy intensity

Equivalent carbon dioxide concentration

2

Equivalent carbon dioxide emission

2-10

Erosion

Evapotranspiration –

External forcing

Extinction

Extreme weather event

FF-gases

(SF6) (PFCs) (HFCs)

Feedback

Food security

Forcing

External forcing

Forecast

Projection Climate projections Climate forecast

Forest

–2000

2003

Fossil fuels

Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC)

Frozen ground

1998

Fuel Cell

Fuel switching

GGlacial lake

Glacier

Global surface temperature

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

١٠٠

Greenhouse effect

Page 87: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

82

–19 –14+

Greenhouse gas (GHG)

(CH4)(N2O)(CO2) (H2O)(O3)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

HHalocarbons

(HFCs)(HCFCs)(CFCs)

Human system

(AR4)

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)

Hydroflurocarbons (HFCs)

Hydrosphere

Hydrological cycle

(AMS, 2000

Hydrological systems

Hydrological cycle

IIce cap

Ice Core

Ice sheet

(TAM)

(Climate change) Impact assessment

(Climate change) Impacts

market impacts aggregate impacts

non-market impacts

Implementation

Compliance

Indigenous peoples

Induced technological change

technological change

Page 88: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

83

Industrial revolution

1750

Inertia

Infectious disease

Infrastructure

Integrated assessment

Integrated

Assessment Models

Integrated water resources management (IWRM)

(1) 1992 (2)(3)(4)

Interglacials

116129

2000

JJoint Implementation (JI)

6 4.2

KKyoto Mechanisms (also called Flexibility Mechanisms)

1712 6

Kyoto Protocol

(UNFCCC)1997(UNFCCC) 1990

20051620122008

LLand use and Land use change

2000

Last interglacial (LIG)

Learning by doing

Level of Scientific Understanding (LOSU)

Likelihood

UncertaintyConfidence

%99<%90<%66<%50<

%6633%33>%10>%1>

Page 89: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

84

MMacroeconomic Costs

Malaria

300

Market Exchange Rate (MER)

Market impacts

non-market impacts

Market Potential

mitigation Potential

Mass balance (of glaciers, ice caps or ice sheets)

Mean Sea Level

level change/sea level rise

Measures

Meridional Overfurning Circulation (MOC)

–Gulf)

(Stream

Methane (CH4)

Methane recovery

Metric

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

2000

Mitigation

Mitigative capacity

Mitigation Potential

Model

Bottom-up-modelClimate modelTop-down model

Model hierarchy

Climate model

Monsoon

Page 90: 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

85

Morbidity

Mortality

NNet market benefits

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Non-governmental Organisation (NGO)

http://www.edu.gov.nf.ca/curriculum/teched/

resources/glos-biodiversity.html

Non-market impacts

(ecosystems)

market impacts

OOcean acidification

(pH)

Opportunities

Ozone (O3)

(O3) (O2)

PPalaeoclimate

Patterns of climate variability

(teleconnection) (modes) (regimes)(PNA) –(NAO)NAM(ENSO) –AAOSAMAO

6-3

Percentile

100

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Permafrost

Frozen Ground (Van Everdingen ,1998)

pH

(pH=7) 777

Phenology

Photosynthesis

Plankton

Policies

Portfolio

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Post SRES (scenarios)

(Nakičenovič2000

and sewart, 2000)

Pre-industrial

Projection

Purchasing power parity (PPP)

RRadiative forcing

2 –1750

Reforestation

2000

2003

Region

Resilience

Retrofitting

Runoff

Hydrological cycle

SSalinisation

Saltwater intrusion

Scenario

emissions scenariosclimate scenario

Sea-ice biome

Sea ice

Sea level change/Sea level rise

132

Seasonally frozen ground

Sensitivity

Singularity

Sink

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Snow pack

Soil temperature

Solar activity

Solar radiation

Source

Spatial and temporal scales

100000 1001010100000

SRES scenarios

(2000)

Scenario family

2121Illustrative Scenario(2000)2121 A1FI

A1T

Marker Scenario (2000)

Storyline

Stabilization

Stakeholder

Standards

Storm surge

Storm tracks

Stratosphere

95010

5016

Streamflow

Structural change

Sulphurhexafluoride (SF6)

Surface temperature

Sustainable Development (SD)

(IUCN, 1980)19921987

TTax

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Technological change

Technology

Technology transfer

Thermal expansion

Thermal infrared radiation

Tide guage

Sea level change/ sea level rise

Top-down models

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)

19780.2%1.368

2000%0.1

Tradable permit

Tropopause

Troposphere

10169

UUncertainty

20042000

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

19929 150 1992

1990

20001990Protocol Kyoto1994

Uptake

Urbanization

VVector

Voluntary action

Voluntary agreement

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Vulnerability

WWater consumption

Water stress

3 1000 %20 –

ZZooplankton

Plankton

Glossaries of the contributions of Working Groups I, II and III to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

AMS, 2000: AMS Glossary of Meteorology, 2nd Ed. American Meteoro-logical Society, Boston, MA, http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/browse.

Cleveland C.J. and C. Morris, 2006: Dictionary of Energy, Elsevier, Am-sterdam, 502p

Heim, R.R., 2002: A Review of Twentieth-Century Drought Indices Used in the United States. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1149–1165

IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Con-tribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton., J.T., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 pp.

IPCC, 2000: Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 377 pp.

IPCC, 2003: Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-Induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types [Penman, J., et al. (eds.)]. The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan , 32 pp.

IUCN, 1980: The World Conservation Strategy: living resource conservation for sustainable development, Gland, Switzerland, IUCN/UNEP/WWF.

Manning, M., et al., 2004: IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncer-tainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk of Options. Work-shop Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.

Moss, R., and S. Schneider, 2000: Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recom-mendations to Lead Authors for More Consistent Assessment and Report-ing. In: IPCC Supporting Material: Guidance Papers on Cross Cutting Issues in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. [Pachauri, R., T. Taniguchi, and K. Tanaka (eds.)]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, pp. 33–51.

Nakic4enovic4, N., and R. Swart (eds.), 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmen-tal Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 599 pp.

Van Everdingen, R. (ed.): 1998. Multi-Language Glossary of Permafrost and Related Ground-Ice Terms, revised May 2005. National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder, CO, http://nsidc.org/fgdc/glossary/.

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III.1 Acronyms and chemical symbols

A1 A family of scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emis-sion Scenarios; see glossary under SRES scenarios

A1T One of the six SRES marker scenarios; see glossary under SRES scenarios

A1B One of the six SRES marker scenarios; see glossary under SRES scenarios

A1FI One of the six SRES marker scenarios; see glossary under SRES scenarios

A2 A family of scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emis-sion Scenarios; also one of the six SRES marker scenarios; see glossary under SRES scenarios

AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model; see glossary under climate model

B1 A family of scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emis-sion Scenarios; also denotes one of the six SRES marker scenarios; see glossary under SRES scenarios

B2 A family of scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emis-sion Scenarios; also denotes one of the six SRES marker scenarios; see glossary under SRES scenarios

CH4 Methane; see glossaryCFC Chlorofluorocarbon; see glossaryCO2 Carbon dioxide; see glossaryEIT Economies in transition; see glossary

EMIC Earth Model of Intermediate ComplexityENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation; see glossaryF-Gases Fluorinated gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol; see

glossary under F-GasesGDP Gross Domestic Product; see glossaryHCFC Hydrochlorofluorocarbon; see glossaryHFC Hydrofluorocarbon; see glossaryLOSU Level of scientific understanding; see glossaryMOC Meridional overturning circulation; see glossaryN2O Nitrous oxide; see glossaryOECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development;

see www.oecd.orgPFC Perfluorocarbon; see glossarypH See glossary under pHPPP Purchasing Power Parity; see glossaryRD&D Research, development and demonstrationSCM Simple Climate ModelSF6 Sulfur hexafluoride; see glossarySRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios; see glossary under

SRES scenariosUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change; see www.unfccc.int

III.2 Scientific unitsSI (Système Internationale) unitsPhysical Quantity Name of Unit Symbollength metre mmass kilogram kgtime second sthermodynamic temperature kelvin K Fractions and multiples Fraction Prefix Symbol Multiple Prefix Symbol10-1 deci d 10 deca da10-2 centi c 102 hecto h10-3 milli m 103 kilo k10-6 micro µ 106 mega M10-9 nano n 109 giga G10-12 pico p 1012 tera T10-15 femto f 1015 peta P Non-SI units, quantities and related abbreviations °C degree Celsius (0°C = 273 K approximately); temperature differences are also given in °C (=K) rather than the more cor-

rect form of “Celsius degrees”ppm mixing ratio (as concentration measure of GHGs): parts per million (106) by volumeppb mixing ratio (as concentration measure of GHGs): parts per billion (109) by volumeppt mixing ratio (as concentration measure of GHGs): parts per trillion (1012) by volumewatt power or radiant flux; 1 watt = 1 Joule / second = 1 kg m2 / s3

yr yearky thousands of yearsbp before present GtC gigatonnes (metric) of carbonGtCO2 gigatonnes (metric) of carbon dioxide (1 GtC = 3.7 GtCO2)CO2-eq carbon dioxide-equivalent, used as measure for the emission (generally in GtCO2-eq) or concentration (generally in ppm CO2-eq) of GHGs; see Box “Carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions and concentrations” in Topic 2 for details

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.A full set of data for all countries for 2004 for all regions was not available*

III.3 Country groupings

Anguilla, St. Vincent-Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela

• Non-Annex I East Asia: Cambodia, China, Korea (DPR), Laos (PDR), Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Viet Nam.

• South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Comoros, Cook Is-lands, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Federated States of), Myanmar, Nauru, Niue, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippine, Samoa, Sin-gapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-L’Este, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu

• North America: Canada, United States of America.• Other non-Annex I: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia Herze-

govina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malta, Moldova, San Marino, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Republic of Macedonia

• Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe

For the full set of countries belonging to UNFCCC Annex I, non-Annex I, and OECD, see http://www.unfccc.int and http://www.oecd.org.

Where relevant in this report, countries have been grouped into regions according to the classification of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. Countries that have joined the European Union since 1997 are therefore still listed under EIT Annex I. The countries in each of the regional

groupings employed in this report include:*• EIT Annex I: Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia,

Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

• Europe Annex II & M&T: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Swit-zerland, United Kingdom; Monaco and Turkey

• JANZ: Japan, Australia, New Zealand.• Middle East: Bahrain, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Jordan,

Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen

• Latin America & the Caribbean: Antigua & Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts-Nevis-

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If country/countries of residence is/are different from nationality, nationality is mentioned last.

IV.1 Core Writing Team membersBERNSTEIN, LennyL.S. Bernstein & Associates, L.L.C.USA

BOSCH, PeterIPCC WGIII TSU, Ecofys Netherlands, and Netherlands Envi-ronmental Assessment AgencyTHE NETHERLANDS

CANZIANI, OsvaldoIPCC WGII Co-chair, Buenos AiresARGENTINA

CHEN, ZhenlinDept. of International Cooperation, China Meteorological AdministrationCHINA

CHRIST, RenateSecretariat, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)SWITZERLAND/AUSTRIA

DAVIDSON, OgunladeIPCC WGIII Co-chair, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sierra LeoneSIERRA LEONE

HARE, WilliamPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchGERMANY/AUSTRALIA

HUQ, SaleemulInternational Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)UK/BANGLADESH

KAROLY, DavidSchool of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, USA, and University of Melbourne, AustraliaUSA/AUSTRALIA

KATTSOV, VladimirVoeikov Main Geophysical ObservatoryRUSSIA

KUNDZEWICZ, ZbyszekResearch Centre for Agricultural & Forest Environment, Polish Academy of SciencesPOLAND

LIU, JianSecretariat, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)SWITZERLAND/CHINA

LOHMANN, UlrikeETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science SWITZERLAND

MANNING, MartinIPCC WGI TSU, University Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchUSA/NEW ZEALAND

MATSUNO, TarohFrontier Research Center for Global ChangeJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyJAPAN

MENNE, BettinaWorld Health Organization (WHO), Regional Office for Eu-ropeITALY/GERMANY

METZ, BertIPCC WGIII Co-chair, Global Environmental Assessment Division, Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyTHE NETHERLANDS

MIRZA, MonirulAdaptation & Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Environ-ment Canada, and Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of TorontoCANADA/BANGLADESH

NICHOLLS, NevilleSchool of Geography & Environmental Science, Monash UniversityAUSTRALIA

NURSE, LeonardBarbados Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, University of West IndiesBARBADOS

PACHAURI, RajendraChairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)INDIA

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PALUTIKOF, JeanIPCC WGII TSU, Met Office Hadley Centre UK

PARRY, MartinIPCC WGII Co-chair, Met Office Hadley Centre, and Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College, University of LondonUK

QIN, DaheIPCC WGI Co-chair, China Meteorological AdministrationCHINA

RAVINDRANATH, NijavalliCentre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of ScienceINDIA

REISINGER, AndyIPCC SYR TSU, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), IndiaUK/INDIA/GERMANY

REN, JiawenCold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of SciencesCHINA

RIAHI, KeywanInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and Graz University of TechnologyAUSTRIA

ROSENZWEIG, CynthiaGoddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)USA

RUSTICUCCI, MatildeDepartamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos AiresARGENTINA

SCHNEIDER, StephenDepartment of Biological Sciences, Stanford UniversityUSA

SOKONA, YoubaSahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS)TUNISIA/MALI

SOLOMON, SusanIPCC WGI Co-chair, NOAA Earth System Research LaboratoryUSA

STOTT, PeterMet Office Hadley CentreUK

STOUFFER, RonaldNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryUSA

SUGIYAMA, TaishiClimate Policy Project, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)JAPAN

SWART, RobNetherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyTHE NETHERLANDS

TIRPAK, DennisInternational Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)USA

VOGEL, ColeenDepartment of Geography, University of WitwatersrandSOUTH AFRICA

YOHE, GaryDepartment of Economics, Wesleyan UniversityUSA

IV.2 Extended Writing Team memberBARKER, TerryCambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, University of CambridgeUK

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the 193 member governments of the IPCC. This appendix lists the individual experts (with affiliations at the time of submission of comments) and international organisations who submitted review comments on the draft SYR, and whose comments were considered by the Core Writing Team in its revision of the draft report.

Note: International organisations are listed at the end.

V.1 ReviewersConsistent with IPCC Rules and Procedures, the draft SYR was sent for formal review to over 2,400 individual experts as well as to

ArgentinaDEVIA, Leila National Industrial Technology

TRAVASSO, María IsabelInstituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropec-uaria

WEHBE, Monica BeatrizNational University Rio Cuarto

AustraliaBARNETT, JonUniversity of Melbourne

BINDOFF, NathanielCSIRO MAR and Unive r s i ty o f Tasmania

BRUNSKILL, GreggAustralian Institute of Marine Science

CHAMBERS, LyndaBureau of Meteorology Research Centre

CHURCH, JohnCSIRO

JONES, RogerCSIRO

KAY, RobertCoastal Zone Management Pty Ltd

LOUGH, JaniceAustralian Institute of Marine Science

MANTON, MichaelMonash University

SHEARMAN, DavidUniversity of Adelaide

WALKER, GeorgeAon Re Asia Pacific

WATKINS, AndrewNational Climate Centre, Australian Bu-reau of Meteorolog

WHITE, DavidASIT Consulting

YOUNUS, Aboul FazalBangladesh Unnaya Parishad and The University of Adelaide

Austria CLEMENS, TorstenOMV Exploration and Production

KASER, GeorgI n s t i t u t f u e r G e o g r a p h i eUniversity of Innsbruck

KIRCHENGAST, GottfriedWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz

MA, TiejuInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

PAULI, HaraldUniversity of Vienna and Austrian Acad-emy of Sciences

SCHRÖTER, DagmarUmweltbundesamt GmbH

Belgium KJAER, ChristianEuropean Wind Energy Association

SAWYER, SteveGlobal Wind Energy Council

VERHASSELT, YolaVrije Universiteit Brussel

BeninYABI, Ibouraïma FideleUniversite d Aborney-Calavi

BoliviaHALLOY, StephanConservation International

BrazilAMBRIZZI, TercioUniversity of São Paulo

BUSTAMANTE, MercedesUniversity of Brasilia

GOMES, MarcosPontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro

MOREIRA, JoséInstitute of Eletrotechnica and Energy

SANT’ANA, SilvioFundaçao Grupo Esquel Brasil

BulgariaYOTOVA, AntoanetaNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

CanadaAMIRO, Brian University of Manitoba

BARBER, DavidUniversity of Manitoba

BELTRAMI, HugoSt. Francis Xavier University

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BERRY, PeterHealth Canada

BRADY, Michael Natural Resources Canada - Canadian Forest Service

CHURCH, IanYukon Government

CLARKE, R. AllynFisheries and Oceans, Bedford Institute of Oceanography

FISHER, David ANational Resources Canada

GRANDIA, KevinDeSmogBlog Society of British Colombia

HUPE, Jane ICAO

JACKSON, David McMaster Institute for Energy Studies

JANZEN, HenryAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada

JEFFERIES, RobertUniversity of Toronto

LEMMEN, Donald Natural Resources Canada

MICHAUD, Yves Geological Survey of Canada

NYBOER, John Simon Fraser University

SMITH, Sharon Geological Survey of Canada

ChinaFANG, Xiuqi Beijing Normal University

GUO, Xueliang Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

LAM, Chiu-Ying Hong Kong Observatory

REN, Guoyu National Climate Center

SU, Jilan Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration

WANG, Bangzhong China Meteorological Administration

YINGJIE, Liu Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture

ZHAO, Zong-Ci China Meteorological Administration

ZHOU, Guangsheng Institute of Botany, The Chinese Academy of Sciences

ColombiaPOVEDA, Germán Universidad Nacional de Colombia

CubaDIAZ MOREJON, Cristobal Felix Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment

SUAREZ RODRIGUEZ, Avelino G. Institute of Ecology and Systematic, Agen-cia de Medio Ambiente

Czech Republic HALENKA, Tomas Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague

DenmarkERHARD, Markus European Environment Agency

MELTOFTE, Hans National Environmental Research Insti-tute, University of Aarhus

PORTER, John R. University of Copenhagen

El SalvadorMUNGUÍA DE AGUILAR, Martha Yvette Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources

France CAMPBELL, Nick ARKEMA SA

CANEILL, Jean-Yves Electricité de France

DE T’SERCLAES, Philippine International Energy Agency

DOUGUÉDROIT, Annick Université de Provence

HEQUETTE, Arnaud Université du Littoral Côte d’Opale

LENOTRE, Nicole Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières

MUIRHEID, Ben International Fertilizer Trade Association

PHILIBERT, Cédric International Energy Agency

PLANTON, Serge Météo-France

RILLING, Jacques Center Scientifique et Technique du B@timent

RUFFING, Kenneth

GermanyBRUCKNER, Thomas Technical University of Berlin

GERTEN, Dieter Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Re-search

GRASSL, Hartmut Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

KUCKSHINRICHS, Wilhelm Research Centre Juelich

LAWRENCE, Mark Max Planck Institute for Chemistry

MATZARAKIS, Andreas Meteorological Institute, University of Freiburg

MUELLER, Rolf Research Centre Juelich

SCHWARZER, Klaus Institute of Geosciences, University of Kiel

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TREBER, Manfred Germanwatch

WALTHER, Gian-Reto University of Bayreuth

WELP, Martin University of Applied Sciences, Eber-swalde

WILLEBRAND, Jürgen Leibniz Institut für Meereswissen-schaften

WINDHORST, Wilhelm Ecology Centre, Kiel University

WURZLER, Sabine North Rhine Westphalia State Agency for Nature, Environment and Consumer Protection

HungaryBÉLA, Nováky Szent István University

SOMOGYI, Zoltán Hungarian Forest Research Institute

IndiaROY, Joyashree Jadavpur University

SHARMA, Upasna Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay

SRIKANTHAN, Ramachandran Physical Research Laboratory

Ireland FINNEGAN, Pat Greenhouse Ireland Action Network

TOL, Richard Economic and Social Research Institute

ItalyCASERINI, Stefano Politecnico di Milano

MARIOTTI, Annarita National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment

RIXEN, Michel NATO Undersea Research Center

Jamaica CLAYTON, Anthony University of the West Indies

JapanAKIMOTO, Keigo Research Institute of Innovative Technol-ogy for the Earth

ALEXANDROV, Georgii National Institute for Environmental Studies

ANDO, Mitsuru Toyama University of International Stud-ies

IKEDA, Motoyoshi Hokkaido University

INOUE, Takashi Tokyo University of Science

KOBAYASHI, Noriyuki Nihon University (Law School)

KOBAYASHI, Shigeki Toyota Research and Development Labo-ratories, Inc.

KOIDE, Hitoshi Waseda University

KOMIYAMA, Ryoichi The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

MARUYAMA, Koki Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

MASUI, Toshihiko National Institute for Environmental Studies

MATSUI, Tetsuya Hokkaido Research Centre, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute

MIKIKO, Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies

MORI, Shunsuke Tokyo University of Science

MORISUGI, HisayoshiJapan Research Institute

NAKAKUKI, Shinichi Tokyo Electric Power Company

NAKAMARU, Susumu Sun Management Institute

ONO, Tsuneo Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency

YAMAGUCHI, Mitsutsune The University of Tokyo

YOSHINO, Masatoshi

KenyaDEMKINE, Volodymyr UNEP

Mexico OSORNIO VARGAS, Alvaro Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

MoldovaCOROBOV, Roman Modern Institute for Humanities

The NetherlandsBREGMAN, Bram Netherlands Organisation of Applied Re-search

BRINKMAN, Robert

MARCHAND, Marcel Delft Hydraulics

MISDORP, Robbert International CZM-Centre, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Man-agement

SCHYNS, Vianney Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Utility Support Group

STORM VAN LEEUWEN, Jan WillemCeedata Consultancy

VAN NOIJE, Twan Royal Netherlands Meteorological In-stitute

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WORRELL, Ernst Ecofys

New ZealandCRAMPTON, James GNS Science

GRAY, Vincent

SCHALLENBERG, Marc University of Otago

Nigeria ANTIA, Effiom University of Calabar

NorwayERIKSEN, Siri University of Oslo

HOFGAARD, Annika Norwegian Institute for Nature Research

KRISTJANSSON, Jon Egill University of Oslo

PeruGAMBOA FUENTES, Nadia Rosa Pontificia Universidad Catolica Del Peru

PhilippinesOGAWA, Hisashi World Health Organization Regional Of-fice for the Western Pacific

TIBIG, Lourdes Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

PortugalDAS NEVES, Luciana University of Porto

PAIVA , Maria Rosa New University of Lisbon

RAMOS-PEREIRA, Ana University of Lisbon

Republic of KoreaKIM, Suam Pukyong National University

RomaniaBORONEANT, Constanta National Meteorological Administration

Russian FederationGYTARSKY, Michael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology

Saudi ArabiaALFEHAID, Mohammed Ministry of Petroleum

BABIKER, Mustafa Saudi Aramco

South AfricaTANSER, Frank Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies

WINKLER, Harald Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

SpainALONSO, Sergio Universitat de les Illes Balears

ANADÓN, Ricardo Universidad de Oviedo

HERNÁNDEZ, Félix IEG-CSIC

MARTIN-VIDE, Javier Physical Geography University of Bar-celona

MORENO, Jose M. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Uni-versidad de Castilla-La Mancha

RIBERA, Pedro Universidad Pablo de Olavide

RODRIGUEZ ALVAREZ, Dionisio Xunta de Galicia

Sweden LECK, Caroline Department of Meteorology

MOLAU, Ulf Göteborg University

MÖLLERSTEN, Kenneth Swedish Energy Agency

RUMMUKAINEN, Markku Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

WEYHENMEYER, Gesa Swedish University of Agricultural Sci-ences

SwitzerlandAPPENZELLER, Christof Federal Office of Meteorology and Clima-tology, MeteoSwiss

CHERUBINI, Paolo WSL Swiss Federal Research Institute

FISCHLIN, Andreas Terresterial Systems Ecology, ETH Zu-rich

JUERG, Fuhrer Agroscope Research Station ART

MAZZOTTI, Marco ETH Zurich

ROSSI, Michel J. Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lau-sanne

ThailandHENOCQUE, Yves Department of Fisheries

SCHIPPER, Lisa Southeast Asia START Regional Centre, Chulalongkorn University

TurkeySENSOY, Serhat Turkish State Meteorological Service

UKALLAN, Richard University of Reading

BARKER, Terry Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research

CLAY, Edward Overseas Development Institute

CONVEY, Peter British Antarctic Survey

CRABBE, M. James C. University of Bedfordshire

GILLETT, Nathan University of East Anglia

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HAIGH, Joanna Imperial College

HARRISON, Paula Oxford University Centre for the Environ-ment

HAWKINS, Stephen Marine Biological Association of the UK

JEFFERSON, Michael World Renewable Energy Network and Congress

JONES, Chris Met Office Hadley Centre

McCULLOCH, Archie University of Bristol

MORSE, Andy University of Liverpool

MUIR, Magdalena Environmental and Legal Services Ltd.

PAAVOLA, Jouni University of Leeds

RAVETZ, Joe University of Manchester

SHINE, Keith University of Reading

SIMMONS, Adrian European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

SIVETER, Robert International Petroleum Industry Environ-mental Conservation Association

SMITH, Leonard Allen London School of Economics

SPENCER, Thomas University of Cambridge

SROKOSZ, Meric National Oceanography Centre

STONE, Dáithí University of Oxford

STREET, Roger UK Climate Impacts Programmes, Oxford University Centre for the Environment

USHER, Michael University of Stirling

WOODWORTH , Philip Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory

USAANYAH, Richard Rutgers University

ATKINSON, David International Arctic Research Center, Uni-versity of Alaska, Fairbanks

BRIENO RANKIN, Veronica GeoSeq International LLC

CHAPIN, III, F. Stuart University of Alaska, Fairbanks

CLEMENS, Steven Brown University

CROWLEY, Tom Duke University

DELHOTAL, Katherine Casey RTI International

EPSTEIN, Paul Harvard Medical School

EVERETT, John Ocean Associates, Inc.

FAHEY, David NOAA Earth Science Research Labora-tory

GURWICK, Noel Carnegie Institution

HAAS, Peter University of Massachusetts

HEGERL, Gabriele Duke University

KIMBALL, Bruce USDA, Agricultural Research Service

KNOWLTON, Kim Columbia University

LEE, Arthur Chevron Corporation

LIOTTA, Peter Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy

MACCRACKEN, Michael Climate Institute

MALONE, Elizabeth L Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

MASTRANDREA, Michael Stanford University

MATSUMOTO, Katsumi University of Minnesota

MATSUOKA, Kenichi University of Washington

McCARL, Bruce Texas A & M University

MILLER, Alan International Finance Corporation - CESEF

MOLINARI, Robert University of Miami

MORGAN, Jack Crops Research Lab

MURPHY, Daniel NOAA Earth System Research Labora-tory

NADELHOFFER, Knute University of Michigan

NEELIN, J. David UCLA

OPPENHEIMER, Michael Princeton University

PARK, Jacob Green Mountain College

PARKINSON, Claire NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

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ROBOCK, Alan Rutgers University

SCHWING, Franklin US Dept. of Commerce

SHERWOOD, Steven Yale University

SIDDIQI, Toufiq Global Environment and Energy in 21st

century

SIEVERING, Herman University of Colorado

SOULEN, Richard

TRENBERTH, Kevin National Centre for Atmospheric Re-search

International OrganisationsLLOSA, Silvia International Strategy for Disaster Reduc-tion

McCULLOCH, Archie International Chamber of Commerce

SIMS, Ralph International Energy Agency

SINGER, Stephan WWF International

STEFANSKI, Robert World Meteorological Organization

YAN, Hong World Meteorological Organization

V.2 Review EditorsThe role of Review Editors is to ensure that all substantive expert and government review comments are afforded appropriate con-sideration by the Core Writing Team. Two Review Editors were appointed for each Topic of this Synthesis Report. They confirm that all comments were considered in accordance with IPCC procedures.

Topic 1JALLOW, Bubu PatehDepartment of Water ResourcesTHE GAMBIA

KAJFEŽ-BOGATAJ , LučkaUniversity of LjubljanaSLOVENIA

Topic 2BOJARIU, RoxanaNational Institute of Meteorology and HydrologyROMANIA

HAWKINS, DavidNatural Resources Defence Council Climate CenterUSA

Topic 3DIAZ, SandraCONICET-Universidad Nacional de CórdobaARGENTINA

LEE, HoesungSOUTH KOREA

Topic 4ALLALI, AbdelkaderMinistry of Agriculture, Rural Develop-ment and FishingMOROCCO

ELGIZOULI, IsmailHigher Council for Environment and Natural ResourcesSUDAN

Topic 5WRATT, DavidNational Institute of Water and Atmo-spheric ResearchNEW ZEALAND

HOHMEYER, OlavUniversity of FlensburgGERMANY

Topic 6GRIGGS, DaveMonash UniversityAUSTRALIA/UK

LEARY, NeilInternational START SecretariatUSA

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(N4O)

-Ocean acidi fication

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(CH4)

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Assessment ReportsFourth Assessment ReportClimate Change 2007: The Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityContribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Re-port

Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate ChangeContribution of Working Group III to the Fourth AssessmentReport

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis ReportContribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assess-ment Report

Third Assessment ReportClimate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisContribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report

Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityContribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report

Climate Change 2001: MitigationContribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Re-port

Climate Change 2001: Synthesis ReportContribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assess-ment Report

Second Assessment ReportClimate Change 1995: The Science of Climate ChangeContribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Re-port

Climate Change 1995: Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts,Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate ChangeContribution of Working Group II to the Second AssessmentReport

Climate Change 1995: The Economic and Social Dimensions ofClimate ChangeContribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Re-port

Climate Change 1995: Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Informa-tion Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN FrameworkConvention on Climate ChangeContribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Second Assess-ment Report

Supplementary Report to the First Assessment ReportClimate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCCScientific AssessmentSupplementary report of the IPCC Scientific Assessment WorkingGroup I

Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCCImpacts AssessmentSupplementary report of the IPCC Impacts Assessment WorkingGroup II

Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 AssessmentsIPCC First Assessment Report Overview and Policymaker Sum-maries and 1992 IPCC Supplementary Report

First Assessment ReportClimate Change: The Scientific AssessmentReport of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group I, 1990

Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts AssessmentReport of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group II, 1990

Climate Change: The IPCC Response StrategiesReport of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group III, 1990

Special ReportsCarbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 2005

Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System:Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons and Perfluorocarbons(IPCC/TEAP joint report) 2005

Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 2000

Emissions Scenarios 2000

Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology Transfer2000

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere 1999

The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment ofVulnerability 1997

Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change andan Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios 1994

Methodology Reports and technical guidelinesIPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2006(5 Volumes) 2006

Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissionsfrom Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Deveg-etation of Other Vegetation Types 2003

Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-use Change andForestry IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme,2003

Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in Na-tional Greenhouse Gas Inventories IPCC National GreenhouseGas Inventories Programme, 2000

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse GasInventories (3 volumes), 1996

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IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Im-pacts and Adaptations 1995

IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (3volumes) 1994

Preliminary Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change1992

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Coastal Areas to Sea LevelRise – A Common Methodology 1991

Technical PapersClimate Change and BiodiversityIPCC Technical Paper 5, 2002

Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions LimitationsIPCC Technical Paper 4, 1997

Stabilisation of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Bio-logical and Socio-Economic ImplicationsIPCC Technical Paper 3, 1997

An Introduction to Simple Climate Models Used in the IPCCSecond Assessment ReportIPCC Technical Paper 2, 1997

Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating ClimateChangeIPCC Technical Paper 1, 1996

Supplementary materialGlobal Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the SeaCoastal Zone Management Subgroup of the IPCC Response Strate-gies Working Group, 1992

Emissions ScenariosPrepared by the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group, 1990

For a more comprehensive list of supplementary material publishedby the IPCC (workshop and meeting reports), please see www.ipcc..ch or contact the IPCC Secretariat

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2007

2007

(WMO) (IPCC) (IPCC) (UNEP) (IPCC) 2007

– 2007

(ISBN 978 0521 88009-1 Hardback; 978 0521 70596-7 Paperback)

– 2007

(978 0521 88010-7 Hardback; 978 0521 70597-4 Paperback)

– 2007

(978 0521 88011-4 Hardback; 978 0521 70598-1 Paperback)

– 2007

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