Preparing for Workforce Success in Oregon’s Current Economic Climate

Presented by: Gail KrumenauerFebruary 1, 2011

Overview: Preparing for Workforce Success

Knowing where we are: still in a difficult economic climate

An educated guess of where we’re going:• Short-term forecasts and expectations• Occupational projections 2008-2018, and where we

expect growth• Factors that enhance competitiveness in the labor

market

Useful tools along the way: resources at QualityInfo.org

The Recession is Over?

Defining A Recession

To a Household or Individual• Employment and Income• Personal and Community

Across the U.S. Economy• Decline or Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Visually, you would expect a recovery period to look about exactly opposite of this.

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1,540,000

1,560,000

1,580,000

1,600,000

1,620,000

1,640,000

1,660,000

1,680,000

Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10

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Total nonfarm payroll employment

Unemployment rate

End of Recession

Nationally we see growth in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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Portland at the lower-end of Metro area recovery

Source: Brookings Institute

We have seen some positive employment growth in recent months…

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Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10

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Employment increase laregly due to temporary Census hiring.

Increases due largely to private-sector hiring.

…but the effects of recession will last for years.

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Moving Beyond Recession … Oregon Total Employment

We are here

4th Quarter 2009

1st Quarter 2015

Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesDecember 2010

Where We’re Heading: Short- and Long-term Employment Growth

Vacancies: Fall 2010 Survey ResultsTotal vacancies statewide = 30,652

Occupational TitleTotal

VacanciesVacancies 60+

Days

Registered Nurses 759 105

Postsecondary Teachers, All Other 366 79

Mental Health Counselors 169 78

Advertising Sales Agents 91 61

Teacher Assistants 513 57

Coaches and Scouts 310 54

Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 233 51

Electrical Engineers 101 49

Accountants and Auditors 259 49

Engineers, All Other 100 47

Physical Therapists 132 47

Business Operations Specialists, All Other 319 42

Occupational Therapists 101 39Supervisors and Managers of Production and Operating Workers 174 35

Loan Officers 193 34

Industrial Engineers 97 34

Customer Service Representatives 649 33

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 123 32

Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 881 31

Over half of vacancies 60+ days in professional and business services or health care

Management, business, and

financial13%

Professional and business services

35%

Health care18%

Service7%

Sales and related8%

Office and administrative support

6%

Farming, fishing, and forestry

1%

Construction and extraction

1%

Installation, maintenance, and

repair4%

Production4%

Transportation and material moving

3%

Long-Term Vacancies by Occupational Group, Fall 2010

Help-Wanted OnLine Ads Rebounding

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The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data Series(Seasonally Adjusted)

Oregon - Total Ads Oregon - New Ads

Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLineTM (HWOL)

Future Hiring: One-third of employers expect to hire, mostly for turnover openings

For 2011: Job Growth Projected in Most Industries

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Professional and Business Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade

Financial Activities

Computers and Electronics

Educational Services

Other Services

Metals and Machinery

Food Manufacturing

Information

Other Durables

Construction

Other Nondurables

Transportation Equipment

Federal Government

Logging and Mining

Wood Products

Leisure and Hospitality

State Government

Local Government

Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector, Oregon Statewide4Q 2010 through 4Q 2011

2011 Hiring Forecast* in a Variety of Occupations

Occupational Title Net Change

Total for All Occupations 24,843

Retail Salespersons 816

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 736

Office Clerks, General 553

Registered Nurses 608

Customer Service Representatives 653

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 593

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 504

Janitors and Cleaners 405

Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Reps., Excl. Technical and Scientific Products 442

Cashiers 430

General and Operations Managers 386

Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 261

Supervisors and Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers 301

Receptionists and Information Clerks 299

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 299

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 291

Accountants and Auditors 272

Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 235

Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 269

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 248

Occupational Hiring Forecast: 4Q 2010 Through 4Q 2011Based on December 2010 OEA Forecast and 2008 Staffing Pattern

*Employment Department estimates based on OEA forecast.

Long-term Projections

• More than 430,000 openings from 2008 to 2018 to replace current workers as they …• change occupations early in their careers,• or retire – baby boomers are nearing retirement

• Add to this the more than 160,000 openings due to economic growth, and we expect …• about 600,000 total occupational openings*

*This doesn’t include job openings due to people changing jobs but not their occupations.

What do we mean by “total job openings?”

• In the context of these projections, we mean:Growth openings – net gains from more firms being created or

growing that firms going out of business or decliningPLUS

Replacement openings – caused by individuals permanently leaving occupations due to retirement, death, disability, or occupational transfer.

• In addition to the above, there are many – perhaps a million each year – turnover openings. These create opportunities for individuals and headaches for businesses, but do not represent “need” in terms of education/workforce planning.

Services industries will add many jobs, especially health care services

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Ambulatory health care services

Food services and drinking places

Professional and technical services

Hospitals

Nursing and residential care facilities

Administrative and support services

Social assistance

Local governemt education

Food and beverage stores

General merchandise stores

Forecast Employment Growth, 2008-2018

Oregon's Industries Adding Most Jobs, 2008-2018

Manufacturing industries are expected to see the greatest losses

-1,500 -1,200 -900 -600 -300 0

Telecommunications

Logging

Publishing industries, except internet

Transportation equipment manufacturing

Federal government

Wood product manufacturing

Machinery manufacturing

Primary metal manufacturing

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

Paper manufacturing

Forecast Employment Losses, 2008-2018

Oregon's Industries Losing Jobs, 2008-2018

Projected job growth also varies by region

Projected Job Growth by Workforce Region2008 - 2018

Growth Rate5% - 8%9% - 13%14%

1

14

13

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11

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9

6

8

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4

3

2

15

All occupational groups are projected to add jobs…

Important Notes

Relatively low-wage occupations add the most jobs.

Professional and health care significantly contribute to high-wage job growth.

124,392

89,196

87,388

71,957

51,199

47,852

42,341

26,825

17,311

15,546

11,849

8,425

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000

Service

Office and Administrative Support

Professional and Related

Sales and Related

Health Care

Management, Business, and Financial

Transportation and Material Moving

Production

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Construction and Extraction

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Nonclassifiable

Total Openings by Occupational Group, Oregon Statewide 2008-2018

…and many projected openings will be high wage…

…but pay varies widely by occupational group.

Service and administrative support openings no longer top the list, once we focus only on high-wage, high-demand jobs.

60,012

45,650

34,121

21,987

17,814

12,738

10,422

10,161

8,531

7,108

1,564

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Professional and Business Services

Management, Business, and Financial

Health Care

Sales and Related

Office and Administrative Support

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Construction and Extraction

Transport and Material Moving

Service

Production

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Projected Total Openings for High-Wage, High-Demand Jobs by Occupational Group, 2008 - 2018

“Usual Suspects” List of Occupations

Occupational TitleTotal

Vacancies

Total Help-Wanted

OnLine Ads

2011 Net Change

Forecast

# of Employers

Future Hiring2008-2018

ProjectionsMedian Wage Minimum Education Requirement

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 1,924 202 291 28 5,008 $11.55 Short term on-the-job training

Cashiers 1,285 175 430 33 20,095 $9.51 Short term on-the-job training

Retail Salespersons 1,267 1,821 816 116 23,370 $10.46 Short term on-the-job training

Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 881 456 144 1 2,107 $20.70 Moderate term on-the-job training

Registered Nurses 759 2,589 608 18 12,718 $35.62 AssociateCombined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 657 165 -69 19 12,868 $9.26 Short term on-the-job training

Customer Service Representatives 649 1,207 653 43 9,875 $14.48 Moderate term on-the-job training

Personal and Home Care Aides 555 445 137 23 2,322 $10.57 Short term on-the-job training

Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 528 462 269 11 2,386 $13.89 Moderate term on-the-job training

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 435 1,202 228 9 5,272 $16.88 Related work experience

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 403 355 299 8 4,541 $12.70 Short term on-the-job training

Tellers 387 428 157 23 3,235 $11.91 Short term on-the-job training

Postsecondary Teachers, All Other 366 334 90 4,518 $70,708* Master's

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 356 1,120 736 113 6,091 $18.06 Postsecondary training

Computer Specialists, All Other 272 1,088 48 15 1,659 $32.22 Postsecondary trainingMedical Records and Health Information Technicians 269 233 63 1 1,238 $16.01 Postsecondary training

Accountants and Auditors 259 660 272 22 3,410 $27.74 Bachelor'sJanitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 249 231 405 37 7,292 $11.32 Short term on-the-job training

Waiters and Waitresses 244 199 -108 38 20,290 $9.93 Short term on-the-job training

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 241 347 504 28 6,001 $16.34 Postsecondary training Medical Assistants 241 403 169 20 2,730 $15.54 Moderate term on-the-job training

*annual, all others are hourly

Factors that Enhance Competitiveness for Job Openings

Education Pays!

Higher education also associated with lower unemployment rates.

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All Persons

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Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

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U.S. Median Weekly Earnings by Educational Attainment - 2009 (age 25+)

2009 Median Weekly Earnings

2009 Unemployment Rate

Source: U.S. Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Postsecondary training will only continue to be increasingly more important.

2008 2018 Growth Replacement Total

Employment Employment Openings Openings Openings

Advanced degree 56,379 64,570 8,191 11,893 20,084

Bachelor's 279,344 301,438 22,232 65,659 87,891

Associate 65,907 77,067 11,231 14,260 25,491

Postsecondary training 167,351 181,866 14,582 34,067 48,649

Total 568,981 624,941 56,236 125,879 182,115

Related work experience 151,678 163,607 12,038 31,581 43,619

Long-term on-the-job training 110,837 115,187 4,996 21,757 26,753

Moderate-term on-the-job training 264,052 282,929 20,875 58,560 79,435

Short-term on-the-job training 643,991 710,503 66,973 186,961 253,934

Total 1,170,558 1,272,226 104,882 298,859 403,741 Share with postsecondary requirement 48.6% 49.1% 53.6% 42.1% 45.1%

Almost Half of Oregon's Total Job Openings Will Require Education Beyond High School

Advanced degree8%

Bachelor's degree33%

Associate degree10%

Postsecondary training

15%

Long-term on-the-job training

8%

Moderate-term on-the-job training

9%

Short-term on-the-job training

2%

Related work experience

15%

Total High-Wage, High-Demand Job Openings by Minimum Education Requirement, Oregon Statewide, 2008-2018

Two-thirds of job openings in high-demand occupations paying at least $50,000 per year require some postsecondary training …

* Due to growth and replacement.

… and 95% of the “above $50,000” high-demand jobs desire post-secondary training if you want to be competitive.

* Due to growth and replacement.

Advanced degree22%

Bachelor's degree35%

Associate degree15%

Postsecondary training

23%

Related work experience

5%

Total High-Wage, High-Demand Openings by Competitive Education Requirement, Oregon Statewide, 2008 - 2018

We’ve updated Oregon’s high-wage, high-demand occupations lists.

The statewide list…

… includes 222 occupations (out of more than 700 total)

… accounts for over 230,000 of the 600,000 projected total openings between 2008 and 2018

… includes occupations that pay at least $15.97 median hourly wages

Need skills that employers want, in addition to education requirements.

Skill FrequencyProcess records and maintain forms and files 1,071,977Use basic mathematics 979,208Work as a team member 791,952Provide customer service 713,450Follow safety procedures 646,645Obtain information from clients, customers, patients or others 611,524Use computers to enter, access and retrieve data 599,796Maneuver heavy objects 521,887Use algebra 485,606Prepare reports in timely manner 467,939Use correct grammar, punctuation and spelling 457,907Apply health and sanitation standards 394,123Apply mathematical principles to accounting, bookkeeping or budgeting 386,958Understand, use, and communicate technical information 356,328Process and prepare business forms 317,730Operate fax machines, copiers, printers, and other office machines 295,461Make presentations 291,178Apply quality assurance techniques 285,503Provide customer service using telephone 284,086Receive payments and make change 276,122

Top 20 Skills Requested by Employers in All Occupations, Oregon, 2008

Boomers

Gen Y

vs.

Gen X

The ability to work across generations is essential

Same Workplace, Different Perspectives

DEMANDAcceptDislikeChange

MastersComfortableChallengedTechnology

Sept. 11, 2001, “Great Recession”

Watergate, Iran (Contra and

Hostages)

JFK Assassination, Civil Rights

Defining Issues

WHY do I need to learn

this?

Tell me HOW to do it

Tell me WHAT to do

School and Training

Gen YGen XBoomers

Resources Available at QualityInfo.org

Occupational Information Center

Detailed info on more than 700 occupations!

Current job openings

Employment projections

Wages

Industries of employment

Training providers

Educational Information Center

Program reports with training in your area!

Institutions

Number of Graduates

Relevant Occupations

Employment Projections

High-Wage, High-Demand jobs on the Web

To view all the High-Wage, High-Demand, and High-Skill jobs:

• Go to www.QualityInfo.org• Click On Occupation Explorer under Tools• At the bottom of the page, click on

High Demand, High Skill, High Wage Occupations

The Take Home Messages

• The effects of “The Great Recession” (2007-2009) will continue to impact the workforce for years.

• Vacancies and hiring are occurring! We expect modest employment growth through 2011, and roughly 9 percent statewide between 2008 and 2018.

• Even those occupations that aren’t growing will need new workers, to replace those who leave. Replacement openings will outnumber growth openings by roughly 2:1.

• The majority of high-wage and high-demand jobs require postsecondary education, especially in this competitive job market

For the latest Workforce & Economic Research news:

www.QualityInfo.orgwww.OregonEmployment.Blogspot.com

www.twitter.com/OrEmployment

Gail Krumenauer, EconomistOregon Employment DepartmentGail.K.Krumenauer@state.or.us

(503) 947-1274