Results from the VALUE perfect predictor experimentD. Maraun, J. Gutierrez, M. Widmann, S. Kotlarski, E. Hertig,J. Wibig and R. Huth
EU COST Action ES1102
www.value-cost.eu
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 1 / 63
Outline
Background
VALUE Framework
Results
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 2 / 63
Background
Background
VALUE Framework
Results
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 3 / 63
Background
I “Researchers are still struggling to develop tools to accuratelyforecast climate changes for the twenty-first century at the localand regional level.” Nature Editorial, 2010
I “Certainty is what current-generation regional studies cannot yetprovide.” Nature Editorial, 2010
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 4 / 63
Background
Downscaling and robust adaptation debateFrom naivety to throwing out the baby with the bathtub
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 5 / 63
Background
The question is......not, whether downscaling is required or not, but...
...for wich variable, region, season lead time and aspect, i.e.,for which user problem is downscaling skillful and/or essential?
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 6 / 63
Background
Aim
The main objective of the Action is to establish anetwork to systematically validate and improve
downscaling methods for climate change research.
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 7 / 63
Background
A certain validation tendency
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 8 / 63
VALUE Framework
Background
VALUE Framework
Results
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 9 / 63
VALUE Framework
Framework paper
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 10 / 63
VALUE Framework
Key questionsfor regional climate change researcg
I How well do GCMs simulate the input for regional climate changeprojections?
I How well do downscaling methods work, in particular underclimate change?
I How strong is the signal-to-noise ratio between climate changetrends and internal climate variability at regional scales?
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 11 / 63
Maraun et al., Earth’s Future, 2015
VALUE Framework
Validation tree
Marginal Temporal Spatial Inter-Variable
Phenomena
Indices
Performance Measures
Aspects
Which climatic phenomena arerelevant for my problem?
Which aspects of the model output make up these phenomena?
What indices should be used to quantify these aspects?
How do I measure the performance to simulate these indices?
User Problem
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 12 / 63
VALUE Framework
Examples of Indices and Performance Measureswww.value-cost.eu/reports
Marginal DistributionsIndex Performance MeasureMean, Variance, 98% Percentile (relative) bias
Temporal DependenceIndex Performance MeasureSpell statistics Bias
Spatial DependenceIndex Performance MeasureDecay lengths of correlation/tail dependence (relative) bias
Multivariate DependenceIndex Performance MeasureJoint threshold exceedances (relative) biasVariable conditioned on large-scale circulation (relative) bias
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 13 / 63
VALUE Framework
Validation experimentswww.value-cost.eu/validation
I Perfect PredictorPredictors/boundary conditions from ERA-Interim Reanalysis
I Pseudo RealityPredictands from regional climate models (Present and future)
I GCM-PredictorsPredictors/boundary conditions from global climate models
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 14 / 63
Maraun et al., Earth’s Future, 2015
VALUE Framework
Reference datawww.value-cost.eu/data
� gridded data without registration
� gridded data with registration
� sub-daily data
� gridded data only for VALUE members
Data
I 85 ECA-D stations;
I corresponding E-OBS gridboxes;
I high quality gridded data forselected regions;
I hourly data for EmiliaRomagna.
Variables
I temperature, precipitation; atselected stations: wind,humidity, radiation. radiation.
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VALUE Framework
VALUE Portal (open upload!)www.value-cost.eu/validationportal
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 16 / 63
Many thanks to Jose, Sixto, Dani et al.
VALUE Framework
Method classes
Perfect prog (PP) vs Model Output Statistics (MOS)I PP: classical empirical statistical downscalingI MOS: bias correction methods
Stochastic vs. deterministicI Stochastic: weather generator (with or without predictors)I Deterministic: same predictor value, same predicted value
Transfer functionI Regression, weather typing, scaling, distribution mapping etc.
Single/multi-site, Markov-chain/white noise
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 17 / 63
following Maraun et al., Rev. Geophys., 2010
Results
Background
VALUE Framework
Results
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 18 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - temperature
ResultsMarginal aspects - temperature
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 19 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - temperature
Tmax - mean, winter (DJF)Observed climate
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10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
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Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 20 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - temperature
Tmax - mean, winter (DJF)Biases across all stations
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QM
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PQ
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QM
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T−
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−E
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m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
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M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
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BS
−E
DB
S−
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C−
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−E
QM
BC
−B
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R−
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aiR
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ER
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aiR
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aiR
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C−
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BD
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OS
−R
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−E
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S−
RE
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IC01
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NA
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−A
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MA
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MO
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−Z
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ES
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EO
FS
LPE
SD
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OF
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ES
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AR
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WG
QR
−90
QR
−95
QR
−99
−2.0
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
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1.0
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 21 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - temperature
Tmax - variance, winter (DJF)Observed climate
● ●
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10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
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Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 22 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - temperature
Tmax - variance, winter (DJF)Relative errors across all stations
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raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
aiR
at−
M6−
ER
aiR
at−
M6−
RR
aiR
at−
M7−
ER
aiR
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M7−
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aiR
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C−
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OS
−R
EG
−E
MO
S−
RE
G−
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IC02
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IC01
T−
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NA
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MA
NA
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AN
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AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
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PM
LR−
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SM
MLR
−R
AN
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MLR
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MLR
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AN
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AN
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AW
MLR
−P
CA
−Z
TR
ES
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EO
FS
LPE
SD
−E
OF
T2
ES
D−
SLP
ES
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MLR
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TD
SC
LIM
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AR
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RF
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FI−
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BA
SIC
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ME
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WG
QR
−90
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−95
QR
−99
0.6
0.7
0.8
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1.0
1.1
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British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 23 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - temperature
Tmax - 20 season return level, summer (JJA)Observed climate
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10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
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Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 24 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - temperature
Tmax - 20 season return level, summer (JJA)Biases across all stations
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ER
AIN
T−
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AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
aiR
at−
M6−
ER
aiR
at−
M6−
RR
aiR
at−
M7−
ER
aiR
at−
M7−
RR
aiR
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M8−
ER
aiR
at−
M8−
RR
aiR
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M9−
ER
aiR
at−
M9−
RS
B−
ES
B−
RD
BB
C−
ED
BB
C−
RD
BD
−E
DB
D−
RM
OS
−R
EG
−E
MO
S−
RE
G−
RF
IC02
T−
EF
IC01
T−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
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SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
MLR
−A
AN
MLR
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AN
_V1
MLR
−A
AW
MLR
−P
CA
−Z
TR
ES
D−
EO
FS
LPE
SD
−E
OF
T2
ES
D−
SLP
ES
D−
T2
MLR
MLR
−W
TD
SC
LIM
−D
QR
−90
QR
−95
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 25 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - precipitation
ResultsMarginal aspects - precipitation
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 26 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - precipitation
Precipitation - mean, summer (JJA)Observed climate
● ●
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10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
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Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 27 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - precipitation
Precipitation - mean, summer (JJA)Biases across all stations
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●
●
●
●
●●●●● ●●
●●● ●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
QM
−E
GQ
M−
RG
QM
−W
T−
EG
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
atye
tal−
M6−
ER
atye
tal−
M6−
RR
atye
tal−
M7−
ER
atye
tal−
M7−
RR
atye
tal−
M8−
ER
atye
tal−
M8−
RR
atye
tal−
M9−
ER
atye
tal−
M9−
RB
C−
EB
C−
RM
OS
−A
N−
EM
OS
−A
N−
RM
OS
−G
LM−
EM
OS
−G
LM−
RV
GLM
GA
MM
A−
EF
IC02
P−
EF
IC04
P−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 28 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - precipitation
Precipitation - wet day probability, winter (DJF)Observed climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
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●
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●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 29 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - precipitation
Precipitation - wet day probability, winter (DJF)Relative errors across all stations
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●
●
●● ●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
QM
−E
GQ
M−
RG
QM
−W
T−
EG
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
atye
tal−
M6−
ER
atye
tal−
M6−
RR
atye
tal−
M7−
ER
atye
tal−
M7−
RR
atye
tal−
M8−
ER
atye
tal−
M8−
RR
atye
tal−
M9−
ER
atye
tal−
M9−
RB
C−
EB
C−
RM
OS
−A
N−
EM
OS
−A
N−
RM
OS
−G
LM−
EM
OS
−G
LM−
RV
GLM
GA
MM
A−
EF
IC02
P−
EF
IC04
P−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 30 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - precipitation
Precipitation - 20 season return level, summer (JJA)Observed climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
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●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
25
36
47
58
69
80
91
102
113
124
135
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 31 / 63
Results Marginal aspects - precipitation
Precipitation - 20 season return level, summer (JJA)Biases across all stations
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●
●
●●
●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
QM
−E
GQ
M−
RG
QM
−W
T−
EG
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
atye
tal−
M6−
ER
atye
tal−
M6−
RR
atye
tal−
M7−
ER
atye
tal−
M7−
RR
atye
tal−
M8−
ER
atye
tal−
M8−
RR
atye
tal−
M9−
ER
atye
tal−
M9−
RB
C−
EB
C−
RM
OS
−A
N−
EM
OS
−A
N−
RM
OS
−G
LM−
EM
OS
−G
LM−
RV
GLM
GA
MM
A−
EF
IC02
P−
EF
IC04
P−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
−40
−20
0
20
40
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 32 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Temperature
ResultsTemporal Aspects - Temperature
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 33 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Temperature
Tmax - ACF lag 1, summer (JJA)Observed climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
●
●
●
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●
●
●
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
0.766666666666667
0.777777777777778
0.788888888888889
0.8
0.811111111111111
0.822222222222222
0.833333333333333
0.844444444444445
0.855555555555556
0.866666666666667
0.877777777777778
0.888888888888889
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 34 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Temperature
Tmax - ACF lag 1, summer (JJA)Biases across all stations
●●●●
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●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
aiR
at−
M6−
ER
aiR
at−
M6−
RR
aiR
at−
M7−
ER
aiR
at−
M7−
RR
aiR
at−
M8−
ER
aiR
at−
M8−
RR
aiR
at−
M9−
ER
aiR
at−
M9−
RS
B−
ES
B−
RD
BB
C−
ED
BB
C−
RD
BD
−E
DB
D−
RM
OS
−R
EG
−E
MO
S−
RE
G−
RF
IC02
T−
EF
IC01
T−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
MLR
−A
AN
MLR
−A
AN
_V1
MLR
−A
AW
MLR
−P
CA
−Z
TR
ES
D−
EO
FS
LPE
SD
−E
OF
T2
ES
D−
SLP
ES
D−
T2
MLR
MLR
−W
TD
SC
LIM
−D
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
QR
−90
QR
−95
QR
−99
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 35 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Temperature
Tmax - mean annual maximum warm spellObserved climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 36 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Temperature
Tmax - mean annual maximum warm spellBiases across all stations
●●
●●
●●● ●
●
●
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●
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
aiR
at−
M6−
ER
aiR
at−
M6−
RR
aiR
at−
M7−
ER
aiR
at−
M7−
RR
aiR
at−
M8−
ER
aiR
at−
M8−
RR
aiR
at−
M9−
ER
aiR
at−
M9−
RS
B−
ES
B−
RD
BB
C−
ED
BB
C−
RD
BD
−E
DB
D−
RM
OS
−R
EG
−E
MO
S−
RE
G−
RF
IC02
T−
EF
IC01
T−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
MLR
−A
AN
MLR
−A
AN
_V1
MLR
−A
AW
MLR
−P
CA
−Z
TR
ES
D−
EO
FS
LPE
SD
−E
OF
T2
ES
D−
SLP
ES
D−
T2
MLR
MLR
−W
TD
SC
LIM
−D
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
QR
−90
QR
−95
QR
−99
−4
−2
0
2
4
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 37 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Precipitation
ResultsTemporal Aspects - Precipitation
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 38 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - wet-wet probability, winter (DJF)Observed climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
●
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●
●
0.0333333333333333
0.0666666666666667
0.1
0.133333333333333
0.166666666666667
0.2
0.233333333333333
0.266666666666667
0.3
0.333333333333333
0.366666666666667
0.4
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 39 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - wet-wet probability, winter (DJF)Relative errors across all stations
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●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
QM
−E
GQ
M−
RG
QM
−W
T−
EG
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
atye
tal−
M6−
ER
atye
tal−
M6−
RR
atye
tal−
M7−
ER
atye
tal−
M7−
RR
atye
tal−
M8−
ER
atye
tal−
M8−
RR
atye
tal−
M9−
ER
atye
tal−
M9−
RB
C−
EB
C−
RM
OS
−A
N−
EM
OS
−A
N−
RM
OS
−G
LM−
EM
OS
−G
LM−
RV
GLM
GA
MM
A−
EF
IC02
P−
EF
IC04
P−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 40 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - mean annual maximum dry spellObserved climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
●
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
12
20
28
36
44
52
60
68
76
84
92
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 41 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - mean annual maximum dry spellBiases across all stations
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●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
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●
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●
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●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
QM
−E
GQ
M−
RG
QM
−W
T−
EG
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
atye
tal−
M6−
ER
atye
tal−
M6−
RR
atye
tal−
M7−
ER
atye
tal−
M7−
RR
atye
tal−
M8−
ER
atye
tal−
M8−
RR
atye
tal−
M9−
ER
atye
tal−
M9−
RB
C−
EB
C−
RM
OS
−A
N−
EM
OS
−A
N−
RM
OS
−G
LM−
EM
OS
−G
LM−
RV
GLM
GA
MM
A−
EF
IC02
P−
EF
IC04
P−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 42 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - interannual variability, summerObserved climate (proportion of variance beyond one season)
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
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●
●
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●
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●
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●
●
●
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●
●
0.00125
0.0025
0.00375
0.005
0.00625
0.0075
0.00875
0.01
0.01125
0.0125
0.01375
0.015
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 43 / 63
Results Temporal Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - interannual variability, summerRelative errors across all stations
●
●
●● ●
●
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●
●●●
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●
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●
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●
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
RA
CM
O22
EIS
I−M
IP−
EIS
I−M
IP−
RE
QM
−E
EQ
M−
RE
QM
−W
T−
EE
QM
−W
T−
RG
QM
−E
GQ
M−
RG
QM
−W
T−
EG
QM
−W
T−
RG
PQ
M−
EG
PQ
M−
Rgp
QM
−W
T−
Egp
QM
−W
T−
RQ
Mm
−E
QM
m−
RC
DF
t−E
CD
Ft−
RQ
M−
DA
P−
EQ
M−
DA
P−
RE
QM
−W
IC65
8−E
EQ
M−
WIC
658−
RD
BS
−E
DB
S−
RQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
−E
QM
BC
−B
J−P
R−
RR
atye
tal−
M6−
ER
atye
tal−
M6−
RR
atye
tal−
M7−
ER
atye
tal−
M7−
RR
atye
tal−
M8−
ER
atye
tal−
M8−
RR
atye
tal−
M9−
ER
atye
tal−
M9−
RB
C−
EB
C−
RM
OS
−A
N−
EM
OS
−A
N−
RM
OS
−G
LM−
EM
OS
−G
LM−
RV
GLM
GA
MM
A−
EF
IC02
P−
EF
IC04
P−
EA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
British Isles Iberian Peninsula France Central Europe Scandinavia Aps Mediterranean Eastern Europe
* values outside plotted range
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 44 / 63
Results Spatial Aspects - Temperature
ResultsSpatial Aspects - Temperature
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 45 / 63
Results Spatial Aspects - Temperature
Temperature - correlation (distance)Observed climate and selected methods
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 46 / 63
Results Spatial Aspects - Temperature
Temperature - de-correlation lengthBiases across all stations
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 47 / 63
Results Spatial Aspects - Precipitation
ResultsSpatial Aspects - Precipitation
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 48 / 63
Results Spatial Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - correlation (distance)Observed climate and selected methods
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 49 / 63
Results Spatial Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - de-correlation lengthBiases across all stations
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 50 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Temperature
ResultsProcess Aspects - Temperature
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 51 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Temperature
Tmin - NAO (pos - neg), winterObserved climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 52 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Temperature
Tmin - NAO (pos - neg), winterBias differences across all stations
●●●
●
●
● ●●
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●
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●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
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●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
ISI−
MIP
EQ
ME
QM
−W
TG
PQ
Mgp
QM
−W
TQ
Mm
CD
Ft
QM
−D
AP
EQ
M−
WIC
658
DB
SQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
Rai
Rat
−M
6R
aiR
at−
M7
Rai
Rat
−M
8R
aiR
at−
M9
SB
DB
BC
DB
DM
OS
−R
EG
FIC
02T
FIC
01T
AN
ALO
G−
AN
OM
AN
ALO
GA
NA
LOG
−M
PA
NA
LOG
−S
PM
O−
GP
MLR
−S
DS
MM
LR−
RA
NM
LR−
AS
NM
LR−
RS
NM
LR−
AS
WM
LR−
AA
NM
LR−
AA
N_V
1M
LR−
AA
WM
LR−
PC
A−
ZT
RE
SD
−E
OF
SLP
ES
D−
EO
FT
2E
SD
−S
LPE
SD
−T
2M
LRM
LR−
WT
DS
CLI
M−
DQ
R−
1Q
R−
5Q
R−
10S
S−
WG
MA
RF
I−B
AS
ICM
AR
FI−
TAD
MA
RF
I−M
3G
OM
EZ
−B
AS
ICG
OM
EZ
−TA
DW
T−
WG
SW
G
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
* values outside plotted rangeMaraun VALUE May 18, 2016 53 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Temperature
Tmax - Blocking (yes - no), summerObserved climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
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●
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●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
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●
●
●
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
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−6
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 54 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Temperature
Tmax - Blocking (yes - no), summerBias differences across all stations
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raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
ISI−
MIP
EQ
ME
QM
−W
TG
PQ
Mgp
QM
−W
TQ
Mm
CD
Ft
QM
−D
AP
EQ
M−
WIC
658
DB
SQ
MB
C−
BJ−
PR
Rai
Rat
−M
6R
aiR
at−
M7
Rai
Rat
−M
8R
aiR
at−
M9
SB
DB
BC
DB
DM
OS
−R
EG
FIC
02T
FIC
01T
AN
ALO
G−
AN
OM
AN
ALO
GA
NA
LOG
−M
PA
NA
LOG
−S
PM
O−
GP
MLR
−S
DS
MM
LR−
RA
NM
LR−
AS
NM
LR−
RS
NM
LR−
AS
WM
LR−
AA
NM
LR−
AA
N_V
1M
LR−
AA
WM
LR−
PC
A−
ZT
RE
SD
−E
OF
SLP
ES
D−
EO
FT
2E
SD
−S
LPE
SD
−T
2M
LRM
LR−
WT
DS
CLI
M−
DQ
R−
90Q
R−
95Q
R−
99S
S−
WG
MA
RF
I−B
AS
ICM
AR
FI−
TAD
MA
RF
I−M
3G
OM
EZ
−B
AS
ICG
OM
EZ
−TA
DW
T−
WG
SW
G
−2
−1
0
1
2
* values outside plotted rangeMaraun VALUE May 18, 2016 55 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
ResultsProcess Aspects - Precipitation
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 56 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - NAO (pos - neg), winterObserved climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
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●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 57 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - NAO (pos - neg), winterBias differences across all stations
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
ISI−
MIP
EQ
ME
QM
−W
TG
QM
GQ
M−
WT
GP
QM
gpQ
M−
WT
QM
mC
DF
tQ
M−
DA
PE
QM
−W
IC65
8D
BS
QM
BC
−B
J−P
RR
atye
tal−
M6
Rat
yeta
l−M
7R
atye
tal−
M8
Rat
yeta
l−M
9B
CM
OS
−A
NM
OS
−G
LMV
GLM
GA
MM
AF
IC02
PF
IC04
PA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
* values outside plotted rangeMaraun VALUE May 18, 2016 58 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - Blocking (yes - no), summerObserved climate
● ●
● ●
10W 4W 0 4E 8E 12E 18E 24E 30E34N36N38N40N42N44N46N48N50N52N54N56N58N60N62N64N66N68N70N
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 59 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
Precipitation - Blocking (yes - no), summerBias differences across all stations
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●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
raw MOS PP WG
ER
AIN
T−
200
ER
AIN
T−
075
ISI−
MIP
EQ
ME
QM
−W
TG
QM
GQ
M−
WT
GP
QM
gpQ
M−
WT
QM
mC
DF
tQ
M−
DA
PE
QM
−W
IC65
8D
BS
QM
BC
−B
J−P
RR
atye
tal−
M6
Rat
yeta
l−M
7R
atye
tal−
M8
Rat
yeta
l−M
9B
CM
OS
−A
NM
OS
−G
LMV
GLM
GA
MM
AF
IC02
PF
IC04
PA
NA
LOG
−A
NO
MA
NA
LOG
AN
ALO
G−
MP
AN
ALO
G−
SP
MO
−G
PM
LR−
SD
SM
MLR
−R
AN
MLR
−A
SN
MLR
−R
SN
MLR
−A
SW
GLM
−D
ET
GLM
GLM
−W
TF
IC01
PF
IC03
PD
SC
LIM
DS
CLI
M−
DC
QR
−90
CQ
R−
95C
QR
−99
SS
−W
GM
AR
FI−
BA
SIC
MA
RF
I−TA
DM
AR
FI−
M3
GO
ME
Z−
BA
SIC
GO
ME
Z−
TAD
WT
−W
GS
WG
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
* values outside plotted rangeMaraun VALUE May 18, 2016 60 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
Temperature and precipitation biasesCMIP5, multi-model mean
Impact modellers often desire to “correct” these biases.
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 61 / 63
Flato et al., IPCC AR5, 2013
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
But cross validation is not sufficient to show skillMap Buenos Aires daily temperature on Cambridge daily precipitation (DJF)Calibration: 1961-1980; validation: 1981-2000
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●●●●●●●●●●●
●● ●●●● ●●
0 10 20 30 40
0
10
20
30
40
Observation: Precipitation[mm]
Pre
dict
ion:
Tem
pera
ture
[°C
]/Pre
cipi
tatio
n[m
m]
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●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
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calibration, uncorrectedvalidation, uncorrectedcalibration, correctedvalidation, corrected
Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 62 / 63
Results Process Aspects - Precipitation
SummaryI Quite sobering, need time to digestI Still experiments 2 and 3 needed!I Please, no premature applications anymore!I When doing statistical post-processing, please evaluate it properly
(e.g., use the VALUE portal)!
I Special issue in preparation (to appear in Int. J. Climatol.)
Thank you for your attention!Maraun VALUE May 18, 2016 63 / 63