03 CFP Sabato ch3 - Center for Politics, University of … John F. Kennedy 47 Richard M. Nixon* 52.4...

39

✰✰✰✰✰✰✰Sabato Highlights3 The 2000 Presidential and

Congressional Contests Chaos in Florida, Predictability in Virginia

Overall

The disputed presidential election of 2000 passed quietly in Republican ☑Virginia, with George W. Bush defeating Al Gore by the relatively comfortable margin of 52.5 percent to 44.4 percent. With the exception of 1964, when the Old Dominion voted for Lyndon B. Johnson, the state has gone Republican for president every four years since and including 1952.

Time fi nally ran out for Democratic U.S. Senator and former Governor ☑Charles S. Robb in 2000. Former Governor George F. Allen denied Robb his third term by the reasonably close margin of 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

The combination of close presidential and Senate contests attracted a record ☑2.79 million Virginians to the polls—52.8 percent of those age 18 or older. This represented a 13 percent increase over the 1996 presidential election (which also featured a tight Senate race).

Presidential Contest in Virginia

The closeness of the election was refl ected slightly in Virginia. George W. Bush’s ☑father had carried the state by over 20 percentage points, nearly reaching the 60 percent mark in 1988, compared to his son’s less than 6- point lead over the combined liberal votes of Al Gore and the Green party’s Ralph Nader in 2000. Nonetheless, Bush had a broad- based win, sweeping 83 of 95 counties and 21 of 40 cities.

More than any other single indicator, the gender gap explained the presidential ☑result. Gore won women, 51 percent to 47 percent, but Bush won men by a much larger 58 percent to 37 percent—about twice as well as Bush did with men nationally.

Racially, Bush easily outdistanced Gore among whites, 60 percent to 37 per- ☑cent, while doing a bit better among African Americans (14 percent) than his national average of 9 percent.

40 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002

The core of Bush’s vote was rural and suburban; Gore ran well primarily in ☑central cities and black- majority localities.

U.S. Senate Race

In most voter categories, the Allen- Robb match- up closely paralleled the Bush- ☑ Gore results. For instance, Virginia Independents sided with the Republicans, with Bush receiving 56 percent and Allen 58 percent.

Regionally, Robb was strong only in Northern Virginia and majority African ☑American localities. Allen’s consistent backing in rural areas powered another statewide win for him.

U.S. House of Representatives

Eight incumbents were reelected to the U.S. House, and Republicans won the ☑three open seats (a net gain of one). The GOP’s Ed Schrock replaced retir-ing Democratic Congressman Owen Pickett in the Norfolk- Virginia Beach 2nd district. As of 2001, the Virginia U.S. House delegation consisted of six Republicans, four Democrats, and one Republican- leaning Independent (Virgil Goode of the 5th district).

Republican House candidates received 51.4 percent of the votes in the contests ☑where both parties had a nominee; the Democrats garnered 46.4 percent.

Campaign Money

The Senate race in Virginia was the seventh most expensive in the nation, cost- ☑ing $17.5 million between the two candidates. Allen outspent Robb, $10.9 million to $6.6 million.

Spending in Virginia’s U.S. House contests increased from $5.6 million in 1998 ☑to $9.4 million in 2000.

41

✰✰✰✰✰✰✰3 The 2000 Presidential and Congressional Contests Chaos in Florida, Predictability in Virginia

Introduction

The year 2000 witnessed one of the closest and most chaotic elections in United States history. From the introduction of “chad” to common usage; to a virtual tie in the Florida vote; to the United States Supreme Court eff ectively deciding the win-ner of the Presidential race, Election 2000 was full of surprises. To no one’s surprise, however, Virginia once again voted Republican in the 2000 presidential election. Virginia has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1948 except once: Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. But, as in the elections of 1992 and 1996, the 2000 tally in Virginia was closer than expected. George W. Bush, Texas governor and Republican presidential nominee, had been expected to carry the Commonwealth handily—Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was even a co- chairman of his campaign. In the fi nal weeks before Election Day, however, Virginia, like the rest of the nation, witnessed a surge by Vice President Al Gore that made the Virginia race a bit more competitive than projected.

In addition, the highly anticipated U.S. Senate race between incumbent Senator Charles S. Robb, Jr., Virginia’s only statewide Democratic offi cial, and for-mer Republican Governor George F. Allen received substantial national attention, but produced a surprisingly underwhelming victory for Allen. Robb, weakened by scandal and lackluster campaigning, only narrowly defeated the extremely contro-versial Oliver North in his 1994 re- election bid, and was expected to lose handily to Allen. Although both Allen and Bush carried the vast majority of Virginia counties and cities, and Virginia no longer boasts a single Democrat in statewide offi ce (a far cry from the Democratic dominance of the Byrd era), the election of 2000 builds on the belief that Virginia is not a permanent, absolute lock for the GOP.

General Election Results and Statistics

On November 7, 2000, Virginia voters once again delivered the Commonwealth’s electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate from Texas named Bush. Governor George W. Bush of Texas, son of the 41st President of the United States, received 1,437,490 votes (52.5 percent) to Vice President Al Gore’s 1,217,290 (44.4 percent). Bush’s 220,000 vote victory over Gore was much closer than many ana-lysts and pollsters had predicted. Despite Virginia being controlled almost entirely by Republicans, the Gore vote plus the rather liberal vote for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader totaled 46.6 percent. It is also important to note that Vice President


Gore won the popular vote nationally by over half a million votes, making Bush the fourth President in U.S. history to be selected despite receiving fewer votes.

Although Bush carried 83 of Virginia’s 95 counties and 21 of the 40 cities (com-pared to 67 counties and 16 cities for Republican Bob Dole in 1996), Bush received a much smaller percentage of the vote than did his father, who carried Virginia 59.7 percent to 39.2 percent over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Besides Nader, who won a mere 2.2 percent, no other candidate on the presidential ballot received more than 0.6 percent of the Virginia vote.

Table 3.02 demonstrates that in over 50 years, no Democratic presidential candidate since Harry S. Truman, except Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, has gotten

TABLE 3.01General Election Results in Virginia for President and U.S. Senate, 2000

Total Number of Votes Percent

PRESIDENT

Al Gore (D) 1,217,290 44.4George W. Bush (R) 1,437,490 52.5Ralph Nader (Green) 59,398 2.2Harry Browne (Libertarian) 15,198 0.6Pat Buchanan (Reform Party) 5,455 0.2Howard Phillips (Conservative) 1,809 0.1Write-ins 2,807 0.1Total 2,739,447 100%

U.S. SENATE

Charles S. Robb (D) 1,296,093 47.7George Allen (R) 1,420,460 52.3Write-ins 1,748 0

Total 2,718,301 100%

SOURCE: Offi cial election results from the State board of Elections.

NOTES: Party Affi liations are abbreviated as (D) = Democrats, (R) = Republicans. Write-in votes are not permitted on the Virginia ballot.

TABLE 3.02General Election Results in Virginia for President, 1948–2000

Year Democratic Candidate Percent of Vote Republican Candidate Percent of Vote

1948 Harry S. Truman* 47.90% Thomas E. Dewey 41.00%1952 Adlai E. Stevenson 43.4 Dwight D. Eisenhower* 56.31956 Adlai E. Stevenson 38.4 Dwight D. Eisenhower* 55.41960 John F. Kennedy 47 Richard M. Nixon* 52.41964 Lyndon B. Johnson* 53.5 Barry M. Goldwater 46.21968 Hubert H. Humphrey 32.5 Richard M. Nixon* 43.41972 George McGovern 30.1 Richard M. Nixon* 67.81976 Jimmy Carter 48 Gerald R. Ford* 49.31980 Jimmy Carter 40.3 Ronald Reagan* 531984 Walter Mondale 37.1 Ronald Reagan* 62.31988 Michael Dukakis 39.2 George Bush* 59.71992 Bill Clinton 40.6 George Bush* 451996 Bill Clinton 45.1 Robert Dole* 47.12000 Al Gore 44.4 George W. Bush* 52.5

Average 41.9 Average 52.2

SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial returns of the State Board of Elections.

NOTE: The percentages of votes for the Democratic and Republican candidates do not add to 100 percent because of votes received by the independents and third-party nominees.

* Denotes winner in Virginia.

CHAPTER 3 ✰ The 2000 Presidential and Congressional Contests 43

a plurality of the Virginia vote. In fact, Democratic candidates have averaged a paltry 41.3 percent of the vote since the Republican stranglehold began in 1952. Republicans by contrast have received an average of 53.2 percent since Dwight D. Eisenhower’s fi rst election. Bush compares relatively well at 52.5 percent, but he received a smaller percentage than any winning Republican candidate since Nixon in 1968. Interestingly, Bush received an almost identical percentage to Nixon’s tally in the fabled 1960 election, in which—countrywide—Kennedy narrowly defeated Nixon in the closest Presidential election in modern political history. Virginia was

FIGURE 3.01Comparison between George W. Bush in 2000 and George Bush in 1992, by Cities

SOURCE: Offi cial Election Results provided by the State Board of Elections.

FIGURE 3.02Comparison between George W. Bush in 2000 and George Bush in 1992, by Counties



even more conservative in that era, but there were many loyal conservative Democrats, which aff orded Kennedy a higher vote total than one might have expected.

Turnout in the congressional districts was fairly uniform, ranging from 67 to 70 percent of registered voting, except for the military- oriented 2nd district (which has a large “ghost” population on ships at sea) and the largely African American 3rd dis-trict. George W. Bush carried eight of Virginia’s eleven congressional districts. He re-ceived his best percentage in Central Virginia’s heavily Republican 7th district (62.6 percent), as well as sizeable margins in the Northern Neck 1st, the Norfolk / Virginia Beach 2nd, the Southside 5th, the Mountain- Valley6th, and the Northern Virginia 10th. He also received a wafer- thin plurality in the Tidewater 4th (49.3 percent to 49.1 percent). Bush narrowly lost the 11th, the Fairfax- area swing district that has a Republican congressman but is balanced very evenly by party. Overall, however, Bush lost the Northern Virginia vote, losing two of the three districts.

Gore bested Bush handily in the black- majority 3rd district (65.4 percent) and the largely Democratic 8th district (55.3 percent), and squeaked by 49.2 percent to 47.0 percent in the 11th district. Gore lost the Southwest Virginia 9th district, which had been won previously by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. The loss in the 9th incidentally refl ects Gore’s inability to win neighboring Tennessee (Gore’s home state) and West Virginia (historically one of the most Democratic states) because of strong stances he made on guns, abortion rights, and the environment (aff ecting the coal industry). By contrast, Gore had won the 9th district handily in the 1988 Super Tuesday Presidential primary—it was one of the only two districts he carried (the other was the neighboring 6th).

The high- profi le Senate contest was closer than the Presidential race, although George Allen and George Bush received almost identical percentages of the vote (52.5 percent for Bush and 52.3 percent for Allen). George Allen, governor of the Commonwealth from 1994 to 1998, unseated two- term Democratic incumbent Senator Charles S. Robb, former Virginia governor and son- in- law of President Lyndon Johnson. The race marked an anticlimactic ending to the political career of Virginia’s former golden boy. Robb, who had served as lieutenant governor and governor of the Commonwealth, was elected to the United States Senate in 1988. He had been untouchable until scandals in the early 1990’s surrounding illicit parties in Virginia Beach and a wire- tapping incident involving former Governor L. Douglas Wilder. By 1994, Robb was a weakened candidate who was no longer considered mainstream by Virginia Republicans. He defeated right- wing GOP candidate Oliver North in 1994 only because of the candidacy of independent Republican Marshall Coleman. Robb was given a new life politically, but he did not take advantage of it. He registered a more liberal voting record and was considered one of Clinton’s most steadfast supporters, voting with President Clinton over 80 percent of the time in the Senate. Robb became Northern Virginia’s U.S. Senator, which made him ripe for the picking in the GOP- controlled Commonwealth.

Robb’s challenger, former Governor George F. Allen, modeled himself as a “compassionate conservative” during the campaign. He started with a wide lead over Robb in the polls, and was considered the front- runner throughout. With his base secure but the margin in the polls shrinking, Allen attempted to further moderate his stances during the last few weeks, most noticeably fl ip- fl opping his position on an assault weapons ban. Robb was slow to reply, and Allen succeeded in remaking his position a few weeks before Election Day.

In one of the country’s most expensive Senate campaigns, Allen received 1,420,460 votes (52.3 percent) to Robb’s 1,296,093 votes (47.7 percent). The 120,000- vote mar-gin was much closer than the Presidential contest; in fact, Robb’s percentage of the


vote was greater than the Gore plus Nader total, which indicates that there were a fair number of Bush / Robb voters. Allen received six percentage points less in 2000 than his whopping 58.3 percent in his 1993 gubernatorial bid against former Democratic state Attorney General Mary Sue Terry. Robb, who received a mere 45.6 percent in his 1994 battle against the polarizing Republican Oliver North and independent Republican Marshall Coleman, improved slightly against Allen in 2000. But he was well below the 71 percent Robb received in his fi rst Senate race in 1988, when Robb was considered White House material and was barely opposed by the state GOP.

FIGURE 3.03The 2000 Presidential Election in Virginia, by Cities


FIGURE 3.04The 2000 Presidential Election in Virginia, by Counties



Looking at the Senate race’s congressional district totals (see Table 3.03), Allen secured victories in seven of the eleven districts, winning his highest percentage in a 61.5 percent to 38.5 percent romp in the Republican stronghold 7th district. Allen’s “folksy” demeanor appealed to rural voters, while his conservative economic stances brought in support from the suburban districts. Robb, like Gore, prevailed with sub-stantial margins in the black- majority 3rd, and the Northern Virginia 8th and 11th districts, and also managed to eke out a win in the Tidewater 4th district, 50.8 percent to 49.1 percent. Despite doing much better than Vice President Gore in the Northern

FIGURE 3.05Cities Carried by Robb in 1994 Vs. Cities Carried by Robb in 2000


FIGURE 3.06Counties Carried by Robb in 1994 Vs. Counties Carried by Robb in 2000



Virginia districts, there was not a very broad demographic base of support for Robb. Robb did noticeably worse than 1996 Democratic Senate candidate Mark Warner (who ran against Virginia’s senior Senator John Warner) in the Southwest 9th (Mark Warner received 55.5 percent while Robb only managed 43.4 percent), refl ecting a belief on the part of many in that community that Robb only left Washington to visit Southwestern Virginia during election years. Allen also had the added benefi t of nearly three years of campaigning across the Commonwealth prior to the 2000 election; many observers believe that Robb did not begin campaign in earnest until too late in the race.

FIGURE 3.07The 2000 U.S. Senate Election in Virginia, by Cities


FIGURE 3.08The 2000 U.S. Senate Results in Virginia, by Counties


Lee Scott

Wise

Dickenson

Buchanan

Tazewell

Smyth

Russell

Washington GraysonCarroll

Wythe

Bland

Pulaski

Floyd

Patrick

Giles

Henry

Franklin

Mont-gomery

Roanoke

Craig

Bedford

Halifax

Campbell

Pittsylvania

Botetourt

Alleghany

Bath

Rockbridge

Highland

Augusta

Albemarle

Nelson

Buckingham

PrinceEdward

Appo-mattox

Amherst

Charlotte

Fluvanna

Cumberland

Powhatan

Amelia

Nottoway

Gooch-land

MecklenburgBrunswick

Greens-ville

Southhampton

SussexIsle ofWight

Surry

PrinceGeorge

Dinwiddie

Chesterfield

Henrico

CharlesCity

New Kent

York

Glou-cester

Mathews

Middlesex

King and Queen

King William

Hanover

Essex

Richmond

Westmoreland

Northumberland

Lancaster

KingGeorge

Caroline

Spotsylvania

Louisa

Orange

StaffordCulpeper

FauquierPrinceWilliamRappa-

hannock

Madison

Warren

Page

Frederick

ClarkeLoudoun

Fairfax

Rockingham

Shenandoah

Accomack

Northampton

Lunenburg

Greene

JamesCity

Arlington

George Allen (R)

Chuck Robb (D)


2000 Presidential Exit Poll Results

The “gender gap” was once again the story in the 2000 Presidential election, just as it had been in previous elections. Gore narrowly carried women (51 percent to Bush’s 47 percent), but Bush overwhelming carried the male vote in Virginia by 21 percent. Compared to voters across the country, the margin between males in Virginia voting for Gore (37 percent) and males voting Bush (58 percent) was nearly twice as large as the 11 percent diff erence nationally.

George W. Bush did better in Virginia among African Americans than he had done nationally, with 14 percent of the black vote in Virginia compared to 9 percent across the country. This refl ects the fact that African Americans in Virginia tend to be more conservative than African Americans on the national level. Not surprisingly, Bush carried the white vote 60 percent to 37 percent for Gore. The tipping point for a Democrat to win in Virginia has historically been receiving 42 to 43 percent of the white vote; Gore’s 37 percent was not nearly good enough.

Vice President Gore narrowly won the youth vote nationally, but Bush handily carried (52 percent to Gore’s 41 percent) the 18–29 year old segment in Virginia. Bush won every age category except those voters aged 60 and over, and he only lost that portion by a relatively small margin. Gore, fortifi ed by his strong emphasis on Medicare and Social Security during his campaign, was able to capture 50 percent of the elderly vote, on par with his national performance in that age group. Oddly enough, seniors were Bob Dole’s biggest supporters in Virginia during the 1996 campaign.

Green Party candidate Ralph Nader made no splash in Virginia, receiving less than 4 percent of the vote in every demographic category except 18 to 29 year- olds, self- described independents, and self- described liberals. By comparison, Ross Perot did much better in Virginia in 1996, garnering 15 percent among Independent vot-ers and receiving 6.6 percent of the overall Virginia vote. A solid majority of the Independent vote in Virginia in 2000 favored George W. Bush, 56 percent to Gore’s 36 percent. This 20- point margin is ten times the diff erence among Independents at the national level. As with African Americans, Independent Virginia voters tend to vote more conservatively than Independents nationally, hence Nader’s sub- par per-formance in Virginia.

Once again, Republicans were more united behind their candidate in the 2000

TABLE 3.03General Election Results in Virginia for President and U.S. Senate by Congressional District, 2000

President U.S. Senator

District Total Votes Case Percent of Registered Voting Gore (D) Bush (R) Robb (D) Allen (R)

1 276,523 69.8 39.3 58.0 44.1 55.82 190,034 62.3 44.6 52.8 49.0 51.03 179,564 63.0 65.4 31.9 67.4 32.54 237,744 66.7 49.1 49.3 50.8 49.15 234,162 69.7 40.2 56.2 43.1 56.96 230,022 69.6 38.6 58.4 41.7 58.37 312,123 72.5 34.9 62.6 38.5 61.58 268,303 70.1 55.3 40.3 60.4 39.59 209,755 65.7 42.4 54.5 43.4 56.6

10 326,430 71.1 38.9 58.0 41.2 58.7 11 253,641 69.1 49.2 47.0 53.2 46.7

SOURCE: Offi cial election results from the State Board of Elections.


TABLE 3.04Demographic Breakdown of Voters, General Election Results for President in Virginia and Nation

VIRGINIA NATION

Percent of Total Cast for Percent of Total Cast for

Grouping Overall Sample % Gore % Bush % Nader % Overall Sample % Gore % Bush % Nader %

SEX

Men 46 37 58 3 48 42 53 3Women 54 51 47 1 52 54 43 2RACE

White 78 37 60 2 81 42 54 3Black 16 84 14 1 10 90 9 1Hispanic 3 NA NA NA 7 62 35 2Asian 2 NA NA NA 2 55 41 3Other 1 NA NA NA 1 55 39 4AGE

18–29 16 41 52 5 17 48 46 530–44 34 44 55 1 33 48 49 245–59 30 43 54 2 28 48 49 260+ 20 50 46 3 22 51 47 2PARTY

Democrat 35 91 7 2 39 86 11 2Republican 37 6 94 0 35 8 91 1Independent 28 36 56 5 27 45 47 6INCOME

< $15,000 4 0 0 0 7 57 37 4$15–29,999 12 51 46 1 16 54 41 3$30–49,999 23 46 49 3 24 49 48 2$50–74,999 25 44 53 2 25 46 51 2$75–100,000 17 44 53 2 13 45 52 2$100,000+ 19 36 61 2 15 43 54 2FAMILY FINANCIAL SITUATION

Better 54 57 40 2 50 61 36 2Worse 9 30 65 3 11 33 63 4Same 36 28 67 2 38 35 60 3IDEOLOGY

Liberal 20 75 19 5 20 80 13 6Moderate 50 51 46 2 50 52 44 2Conservative 31 13 86 0 29 17 81 11996 VOTE

Clinton 43 84 13 2 46 82 15 2Dole 36 4 96 0 31 7 91 1Perot 4 0 0 0 6 27 64 7WHITE RELIGIOUS RIGHT VOTERS

Yes 16 17 82 1 14 18 80 1No 80 51 45 2 83 54 42 3VOTE FOR SENATE

Robb 48 91 10 0 NA NA NA NAAllen 52 9 90 0 NA NA NA NACLINTON JOB APPROVAL

Approve 55 74 23 2 57 77 20 2 Disapprove 43 6 91 1 41 9 88 2

SOURCE: Exit poll conducted and adjusted for CNN by Voter News Service. For Virginia, a total of 1,543 voters were interviewed outside their voting places on Election Day.

NA = Not Available. Sample Size was too small to produce reliable results in some subcategories.


election than the Democrats. This was true both statewide and nationally. While Gore received 91 percent of the Democratic support, Bush garnered 94 percent of the voters who identifi ed themselves as Republicans in Virginia. Nationally, Bush’s party support was nearly as strong, winning 91 percent of Republicans compared to Gore’s 86 percent received from Democrats.

When looking at voter income, Gore received his strongest support among those who earned less than $30,000 annually, both in Virginia as well as nationally. The Democrat received a 51 percent majority of the votes from this income bracket in Virginia, slightly less than the 54 percent won nationally. Bush received more sup-port than Gore in Virginia, 49 to 46 percent, from those making between $30,000 and $49,999. (Nationally, Gore edged out Bush by a one- point margin, 49 to 48 percent in the same group.) As income increased, Bush’s support continued to climb in Virginia and nationwide. Unlike Bob Dole in 1996 who was only able to carry a majority of those making more than $75,000, Bush was able to garner a majority with voters making over $50,000 per year. The Virginia electorate, confi rming an earlier trend, continued to be more skewed to conservative upper- income voters in 2000. In 1992 those making over $75,000 comprised just 14 percent of the electorate in 1992, and 21 percent in 1996; in 2000, 36 percent of the Virginia electorate made over $75,000 annually.

Each family’s fi nancial situation regularly determines the pattern of presiden-tial voting, and the 2000 election affi rmed this observation. Of the 54 percent of Virginians who said their situation had improved since 1996, Gore received a clear majority of 57 percent. (Nationally, 50 percent of the electorate felt they were better off and supported Gore by a margin of 61 to 36 percent.) Those who felt their situ-ation had worsened or remained the same were equally supportive of the challenger, and Bush won massive majorities of 65 and 67 percent respectively. These Virginia numbers mirrored the national results in which Bush won 63 percent of those who were worse off and 60 percent of those who felt their situation had not changed.

While voters who described themselves as either liberal or conservative were predictably skewed towards their respective candidate (75 percent of the liberal vote went to Gore and 86 percent of the conservative vote went to Bush), Gore carried the moderate vote, 51 to 46 percent. This moderate diff erence was slightly closer, how-ever, than the national moderate vote, which was 52 to 44 percent in favor of Gore.

An analysis of recent voting trends again shows a Democratic Party less unifi ed behind its candidate. Only 84 percent of those who voted for Clinton in 1996 reaf-fi rmed their support for the Democratic ticket and Gore in 2000. Another 13 percent crossed party lines and voted for Bush. By contrast, the Virginia Republicans mir-rored their 1996 vote, wholeheartedly supporting the GOP candidate. Amazingly, 96 percent of those who voted for Dole also voted for George W. Bush. These statistics refl ect similar numbers on a national level. Without a serious third- party candidate challenging for conservative votes, Bush picked up ground nationally by winning the votes of former Perot supporters. Among those who voted for Perot in 96, Bush more than doubled Gore, 64 to 27 percent.

Home to prominent religious conservative heavyweights, such as Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson and Liberty College President Jerry Falwell, the Commonwealth contains a strong base of those who classify themselves as belonging to the white religious right. Of the 16 percent of voters who identifi ed themselves as such, an overwhelming yet predictable 82 percent voted for Bush. The white reli-gious right vote has proven itself to be as conservative as the black vote is Democratic, with the two eff ectively canceling each other out in many cases.


2000 U.S. Senate Exit Poll Results

George Allen’s victory over Chuck Robb followed much of the same pattern as Bush’s over Gore. Like Bush, Allen easily won the male Virginia vote, 59 to 41 percent. Like Gore, Robb carried women voters, but not by a high enough margin. Somewhat trumping Gore’s 4 percent margin, Robb won the female vote, 53 to 47 percent. Among whites, Allen carried both men and women, 65 and 55 percent, respectively.

As expected, Robb won the black vote handily with 84 percent to Allen’s 16. The margin for white voters was somewhat closer, with Allen winning 60 to 40 per-cent. Robb possibly benefi ted from Gore’s appeal to the elderly in issues such as health care, prescription drugs and Medicare; the incumbent Senator gained the support of 54 percent of voters over the age of 60. Allen, like Bush, held a slim margin of victory among the rest of the population.

In a passionate display of partisanship, the contest was sharply divided among party lines—Robb and Allen each carried 91 percent of the Democratic and Republican vote, respectively. Mimicking the presidential election, Independents handed their support to the GOP candidate, with Allen winning 58 to 42 percent. Ideology was equally divided—Robb carried most liberal voters while Allen mainly found support among conservatives. Also, nearly 60 percent of Virginia voters rated Clinton as unfavorable, most of whom voted for Allen—a factor that did not bode well for Robb, one of Clinton’s most steadfast supporters in an anti- Clinton state.

Voter Turnout

With 2.79 million votes cast in Virginia for the 2000 elections, the Commonwealth surpassed its previous record for total absolute votes cast—a 13 percent increase from 1996 elections. More interestingly, the 52.8 percent of potential votes cast beat the national average of 51.2 percent and is Virginia’s second- highest turnout in over a half century. (The highest turnout occurred in the 1992 elections when 54.5 per-cent of potential votes were cast.) Table 3.07 shows a drop- off in the percentage of registered voters who actually cast their ballot. In 1992, 84.5 percent of registered Virginians voted. In 1996, this number dropped to 74.3 percent. By 2000, this num-ber has dwindled to 68.5 percent. This is not, however, due to a decrease in actual voters. Instead, it is undoubtedly a result of the Motor / Voter federal law of 1993. The law has simplifi ed the registration process and has increased drastically the pool of registered voters, but the number of actual voters has not increased proportionally.

The Urban and Rural Voting Patterns

A breakdown of urban and rural voting shows the Democratic Party underachiev-ing in most areas of the state. Demographically, people are moving into the suburbs at the expense of central cities and rural areas. This shift benefi ts Republicans, as the typical suburbanite tends to be upper middle class and have a more conservative ideology. In central cities, the Democrats had substantial margins of victory, but as a whole underperformed when compared to past elections. Gore’s 20 percentage point victory over Bush was less than the usual 33 percent margin that Democrats enjoy. Robb’s victory over Allen was better, at 61 to 38 percent, but still was not great by past standards. The suburbs were predictably not close, with Republicans carrying


TABLE 3.05Exit Poll Data, U.S. Senate Election in Virginia, 2000

Percent of Total Cast for

Grouping Overall Sample % Robb (D) % Allen (R) %

SEX

Men 46 41 59Women 54 53 47White Men 48 35 65White Women 52 45 55RACE

White 78 40 60African-American 15 84 16Hispanic 3 0 0Asian 2 0 0Other 1 0 0AGE

18–29 16 46 5430–44 34 45 5545–59 30 47 5260+ 19 54 46PARTY

Democrat 35 91 9Republican 37 8 91Independent 28 42 58INCOME

< $15,000 4 0 0$15–30,000 12 53 46$30–50,000 23 46 54$50–75,000 25 48 52$75–100,000 17 50 49$100,000+ 19 41 59FAMILY FINANCIAL SITUATION

Better 54 58 42Worse 9 36 64Same 36 32 67RELIGION

White Protestant/Relig. Right 63 45 55OtherIDEOLOGY

Liberal 20 78 22Moderate 49 54 46Conservative 31 16 84OPINION OF CLINTON AS A PERSON

Favorable 37 77 22Unfavorable 59 26 731996 VOTE

Clinton 43 83 17Dole 36 8 91Perot 4 0 0Other 2 0 02000 VOTE IN A TWO-WAY RACE

Gore 44 91 9Bush 51 10 90

Would Not Have Voted 3 0 0

SOURCE: Exit poll conducted and adjusted for CNN by Voter News Service.

For Virginia, a total of 1,543 voters were interviewed outside their voting places on Election Day.


the sprawling areas outlying Virginia’s cities. Bush won handily, defeating Gore 54 to 42 percent. Allen’s victory was closer, with a 53 to 46 percent victory. This is due in part to Robb’s suburban appeal, which he has maintained throughout his career as governor and senator.

Rural areas once again proved to be Allen’s heartland. Known for his prac-ticed southern accent, tobacco- chewing habit, ‘aw- shucks’ demeanor, and worn cowboy boots (a striking contrast to the starched former- Marine Robb), Allen won

TABLE 3.06Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections in Virginia, 1948–2000

Year

Total Potential

Voting Population

Total Votes

Cast

Percent of

Potential Votes Cast

National Average

Percentage (estimated)

Percent Increase in

Absolute Turnout from

Preceding Election (Va. only)

1948 2,015,000 419,000 20.8% 51.5% 6.0%1952 2,083,000 620,000 29.8 62.0 47.81956 2,198,000 698,000 31.8 60.1 12.61960 2,349,000 771,000 33.3 63.8 10.51964 2,539,000 1,042,267 41.2 61.3 35.11968 2,717,000 1,361,491 50.7 60.2 30.61972 3,197,000 1,457,019 45.6 55.1 7.01976 3,528,000 1,716,182 48.6 53.3 17.81980 3,817,000 1,866,032 48.9 52.6 8.71984 4,203,000 2,180,515 51.9 53.1 16.81988 4,467,000 2,231,876 50.0 50.9 2.41992 4,748,000 2,582,966 54.5 55.0 15.71996 5,187,000 2,468,229 47.6 48.8 –4.4

2000 5,286,502 2,789,808 52.8 51.2 13.0

SOURCE: The State Board of Elections supplied fi gures for ‘total vote cast ’; either the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service (formerly the Tayloe Murphy Institute) or the U.S. Census Bureau supplied the fi gures for the “total potential voting population.”

NOTE: The total potential voting population from 1948–68 includes all persons 21 years of age and older, while the fi gures for 1972–2000 include those ages 18 and above.

TABLE 3.07Voter Turnout in Virginia, 1976–2000

Year Chief Contest % of All Adultsa % of Registeredb

1976 President/Senator 48.6 80.81977 Governor 34.8 61.91978 Senator 32.7 60.31980 President 48.9 81.41981 Governor 37.3 64.91982 Senator 34.7 63.41984 President/Senator 51.9 81.51985 Governor 32.2 53.01988 President/Senator 50.0 77.61989 Governor 39.7 66.51990 Senator 26.4 45.81992 President 54.5 84.51993 Governor 36.9 61.11994 Senator 41.8 69.31996 President/Senator 47.6 74.31997 Governor 34.4 49.5

2000 President/Senator 52.8 68.5

SOURCES: Table 3.06 and previous volumes of Virginia Votes.a Percentage of all Virginians age 18 and over.b Percentage of those adults who had actually registered to vote and thus were qualifi ed to cast a ballot.

TABLE 3.08Percent of Registered Actually Voting for President, 1980–2000

Presidential

Year

Percent of Registered

Actually Voting

1980 81.41984 81.51988 77.61992 84.51996 74.3

2000 68.5


TABLE 3.09The Urban Virginia Vote, General Election for President and U.S. Senate, 2000

Percent of Votes Cast For Percent of Votes Cast For

Urban Measure Percent of Total Vote Gore (D) Bush (R) Robb (D) Allen (R)

Urban Corridora 62.6 46.8 50.2 50.5 49.5Metropolitan Statistical Areasb 77.7 45.7 51.3 49.2 50.7 Central Cities 15.7 58 38.8 61.4 38.5 Suburbs 62.1 42.6 54.4 46.1 53.8

Rural Areasc 20.1 40.3 56.6 42.3 57.7

SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial elections results of the State Board of Elections

NOTE: Party affi liations are abbreviated as (D) = Democrat; (R) = Republican. The votes for other third-party candidates, independents, and write-ins were not tabulated for this table.a Includes cities of Alexandria, Chesapeake, Colonial Heights, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Hampton, Hopewell, Manassas, Manassas Park, Newport News, Norfolk, Petersburg, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Richmond, Virginia Beach, and Williamsburg; and the counties of Arlington, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfi eld, Clarke, Dinwiddie, Fairfax, Fauquier, Hanover, Henrico, James City, Loudon, New Kent, Prince George, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Staff ord, and York.b The nine Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for Virginia, as established by the U.S. Census Bureau, are Charlottesville, Danville, Lynchburg, Washington, D.C., Newport News-Hampton, Norfolk-Portsmouth, Petersburg-Colonial Heights, Richmond, and Roanoke. Central Cities and suburbs are included in the MSA fi gures. The Charlottesville and Danville MSAs were fi rst designated after the 1980 census.c All Virginia localities not included in either an MSA or the Urban Corridor.

TABLE 3.10Major Statewide Elections in Virginia by Demographic and Black Voting Patterns, 1969–2000

Percent for Winner

Election Central Cities Suburbs Black Vote

GENERAL ELECTIONS

1969 Governor, Linwood Holton (R) 50.9% 56.5% 37.2%1970 U.S. Senator, Harry Byrd, Jr. (I) 52.2 55.9 3.01971 Lt. Governor, Henry Howell (I) 50.6 39.8 91.71972 President, Richard Nixon (R) 60.3 70.1 8.81972 U.S. Senate, William Scott (R) 42.5 52.7 6.71973 Governor, Mills Godwin (R) 43.2 54.6 5.71976 President, Gerald Ford (R) 43.6 53.9 5.01976 U.S. Senate, Harry Byrd, Jr. (I) 51.4 55.9 4.41977 Governor, John Dalton (R) 47.9 59.9 5.01977 Lt. Governor, Charles Robb (D) 61.2 51.1 94.91977 Attorney General, Marshall Coleman (R) 47.7 56.6 32.71978 U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) 45.4 53.7 7.11980 President, Ronald Reagan (R) 41.3 58.4 3.41981 Governor, Charles Robb (D) 64.5 49.5 96.41981 Lt. Governor, Dick Davis (D) 67.2 52.3 95.51981 Attorney General, Gerald Baliles (D) 62.7 45.4 95.91982 U.S. Senate, Paul Trible (R) 39.6 55.1 5.71984 President, Ronald Reagan (R) 47.9 66.8 8.21984 U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) 57.6 72.9 21.21985 Governor, Gerald Baliles (D) 66.2 51.5 94.11985 Lt. Governor, Douglas Wilder 64.4 48.8 96.61985 Attorney General, Mary Sue Terry (D) 71.3 58.6 95.61988 President, George Bush (R) 45.2 63.4 8.61988 U.S. Senate, Charles Robb(D) 76.1 70.3 83.71989 Governor, Douglas Wilder (D) 68.5 47.0 96.21989 Lt. Governor, Donald Beyer (D) 64.9 53.4 87.81989 Attorney General, Mary Sue Terry (D) 72.7 61.6 94.71990 U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) 78.0 80.9 64.21992 President, George Bush (R) 33.1 47.1 7.01993 Governor, George Allen (R) 46.5 59.9 11.41993 Lt. Governor, Donald Beyer (D) 64.6 54.2 90.91993 Attorney General, James Gilmore (R) 46.1 57.7 10.6


a resounding victory in key rural areas. This parallels the landside victory in rural Virginia in 1993, where he won 63.4 percent of the vote. The poor performance of Democrats in rural areas underscored their defeat statewide. Localities that Democrats formerly split 50 / 50 are now producing resounding defeats. The rural vote will continue to be key, as 2000 produced the highest recorded percentage of rural voters in any General Election in recent history. By contrast, the Democratic strongholds in the central cities are showing lower voter turnout.

African American Voting Patterns

Voter turnout was especially low among Virginia’s African Americans in 2000. Just 56.4 percent of registered citizens in the predominantly black precincts noted in Table 3.12 showed up at the polls on November 7. This proportion is more than 12 percentage points lower than the overall turnout, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the 1996 Presidential election. The turnout was much higher, however, than the 41.1 percent turnout in the 1997 gubernatorial election.

African Americans were obviously not enthused by Al Gore and Chuck Robb. One could clearly argue that had Robb reached out more forcefully to African Americans and encouraged them to vote in above average numbers, he may have re-tained his United States Senate seat. In the sample black precincts, both Gore and

TABLE 3.10Major Statewide Elections in Virginia by Demographic and Black Voting Patterns, 1969–2000 (continued )

Percent for Winner

Election Central Cities Suburbs Black Vote

1994 U.S. Senate, Charles Robb (D) 59.2 43.5 93.41996 President, Robert Dole (R) 36.6 51.1 4.81996 U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) 45.0 56.0 11.61997 Governor, James Gilmore (R) 43.7 58.3 11.21997 Lt. Governor, John Hager (R) 38.8 53.3 9.11997 Attorney General, Mark Earley (R) 48.0 59.9 15.62000 President, George W. Bush (R) 38.8 54.4 5.52000 Senate, George Allen (R) 38.5 53.8 8.1DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ELECTIONS

1969 Governor, William Battle (fi rst primary) 31.8 40.6 11.81969 Governor, William Battle (runoff ) 40.7 51.2 4.81977 Governor, Henry Howell 59.6 50.6 86.11977 Lt. Governor, Charles Robb 35.0 39.1 26.61977 Attorney General, Edward E. Lane 37.8 32.0 15.81988 President, Jesse Jackson 64.1 38.2 93.81994 U.S. Senator, Charles Robb 68.5 61.3 82.9REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS

1988 President, George Bush 54.5 52.5 37.71989 Governor, Marshall Coleman 34.6 35.9 42.81996 U.S. Senator, John Warner 75.1 64.7 84.61997 Attorney General, Mark Earley 36.9 38.0 38.5

2000 President, George W. Bush 49.6 51.4 31.4

SOURCE: Calculated by the author from data supplied by the State Board of Elections.

NOTES: Party affi liations of winning candidates are abbreviated as: (D) = Democrat; (R ) = Republican; (I) = Independent. Figures for the 1970 Democratic primary of U.S. senator are not included in this table. Voter turnout in that election was miniscule.

Central cities and suburbs used in this table are designated components of Virginia’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), as established by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Estimates of the black vote are based on results in the selected predominantly black precincts used in this and previous editions of Virginia Votes.


Robb received over 90 percent of the African American vote, with Gore winning 93.2 percent and Robb netting 91.8 percent of the vote. (Note that these percent-ages were higher than those recorded on Election Day exit polls. The explanation is relatively simple: upper- middle and high income blacks are more likely to live in the suburbs and to vote for Republican candidates, and while an exit poll samples this group, a collection of inner- city precincts necessarily excludes them.)

Incidentally, George Allen did worse in the African American precincts in the Senate race than he did running for governor in 1993 when he received 11.4 percent. George W. Bush also did less well than his father’s 7.0 percent in the 1992 presiden-tial election. Although former Governor Doug Wilder helped campaign for Chuck Robb in the closing weeks, Robb garnered 91.8 percent in the majority black pre-cincts, a slight drop from his 93.4 percent in 1994.

TABLE 3.11Metropolitan Proportions of Statewide Vote in Virginia, 1969–2000

Percent of Statewide Vote

Central Cities Suburbs

GENERAL ELECTIONS

1969 Governor 21.5% 35.0%1970 U.S. Senator 22.6 35.41971 Lieutenant Governor 18.6 28.41972 President 21.7 41.21973 Governor 22.0 37.61976 President 20.1 41.51977 Governor 20.6 39.01978 U.S. Senator 19.8 39.11980 President 17.0 44.31981 Governor 17.8 46.51982 U.S. Senator 18.0 46.91984 President 16.8 49.31985 Governor 17.1 47.51987 Lottery Referendum 15.1 48.51988 President 15.0 52.61989 Governor 22.5 48.61990 U.S. Senator 13.5 61.01992 President 13.7 60.01993 Governor 18.1 58.21994 U.S. Senator 17.9 59.61996 President 17.2 60.61997 Governor 17.2 58.62000 President 15.7 62.1DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

1969 Governor (fi rst primary) 28.1 26.31969 Governor (runoff ) 27.3 28.81977 Governor 26.9 37.81988 President 25.4 45.51994 U.S. Senator 24.4 48.2REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES

1988 President 13.6 59.71989 Governor 15.0 55.61996 U.S. Senator 19.1 64.51997 Attorney General 17.1 64.6

2000 President 14.3 69.6


TABLE 3.12Voting in Selected Predominantly Black Precincts in Virginia Cities, General Election for President and U.S. Senate, 2000

City

Number of

Precincts

Total Votes

Cast

Percent of

Registered Voting Gore (D) Bush (R) Robb (D) Allen (R)

BLACK PRECINCTS

Charlottesvillea 1 828 49.1% 79.7% 15.0% 82.3% 17.2%Chesapeakeb 1 580 57.8 95.2 4.8 94.8 5.2Emporiac 1 172 49.1 87.8 11.0 83.6 16.4Hamptond 2 3,605 60.5 87.1 12.1 84.9 15.0Newport Newse 8 4,784 53.1 96.8 2.7 94.3 5.6Norfolkf 10 9,220 51.5 95.5 3.9 93.6 6.3Petersburgg 4 2,382 58.1 94.6 4.0 92.6 7.3Portsmouthh 2 2,832 67.9 97.2 2.5 95.7 4.1Richmondi 15 10,408 59.3 91.2 6.1 91.0 8.9Totals 44 34,811

Average of All Votes Cast in Selected Precincts 56.40% 93.20% 5.50% 91.80% 8.10%


NOTES: Party affi liations are abbreviated as (D) = Democrat; (R) = Republican. Presidential percentages do not always total 100% since scattered votes were cast for the other independent or minor party candidates on the ballot. a Charlottesville: Benjamin Tonsler (formerly Firehouse) precinctb Chesapeake: South Norfolk Fire Station precinctc Emporia: Precinct 2d Hampton: Pembroke and Phenix precinctse Newport News: Chestnut, Dunbar, Huntington, Jeff erson, Magruder, Marshall, Newsome Park, and Washington precinctsf Norfolk: Berkely, Bowling Park, Brambleton, Campostella, Chesterfi eld, Monroe, Park Place, Rosemont, Union Chapel, and Young Park precinctsg Petersburg: 5th Ward—1st precinct, 5th Ward—2nd precinct, 6th Ward—1st precinct, and 6th Ward—2nd precinct.h Portsmouth: Precincts 26 and 27i Richmond: Precincts 301, 303, 304, 306, 602, 604, 606, 608, 701, 702, 703, 704, 705, 707, and 802.

TABLE 3.13Voter Turnout in Selected Black Precincts vs. Statewide Turnout in Virginia, 1976–2000

Year Election

Overall Turnout

(% of Registered )

Selected Black Precincts

(% of Registered)

% Black Turnout Exceeds (+) or

Underachieves (–) Overall Turnout

1976 President 80.8 76.4 –4.41977 Governor 61.9 62.8 0.91978 U.S. Senator 60.3 56.4 –3.91980 President 81.3 75.4 –5.91981 Governor 64.9 67.5 2.61982 U.S. Senator 65.1 68.9 3.81984 President 81.5 72.6 –8.91985 Governor 53.0 53.9 0.91987 Lottery/Gen. Assembly 59.1 49.6 –9.51988 President 77.6 64.4 –13.21989 Governor 66.5 72.6 6.11990 U.S. Senator 45.8 31.7 –14.11992 President 84.5 72.0 –12.51993 Governor 61.1 50.5 –10.61994 U.S. Senator 69.3 64.0 –5.31996 President 74.3 64.0 –10.31997 Governor 49.5 41.1 –8.4

2000 President 68.5 56.4 –12.1

SOURCE: Previous editions of Virginia Votes.

NOTES: Overall turnout includes black turnout; therefore, the diff erential between black and white turnout in each year is obviously greater than the fi gures in this column can indicate.

Black turnout is measured by the use of the predominantly black precincts cited to analyze the black vote in this volume; see notes to Table 3.12 for identifi cation for these precincts.


Public Opinion Polling

For the most part, the Virginia pollsters did an admirable job of predicting close Senate and Presidential contests in 2000. As usual, Mason- Dixon Opinion Research was the most accurate, closely predicting the margin of victories for both Republican candidates. Due to the national attention shed on the Robb / Allen contest, it was an ambitious year for polling in Virginia, with most major newspapers within the Commonwealth, including The Washington Post and The Richmond Times- Dispatch, conducting independent polling. The pollsters were, for the most part, correct. The main exception to this was the joint polling conducted by Old Dominion University and The Virginian- Pilot, which predicted Bush’s victory closely but overestimated Allen’s margin of victory over Robb. The Commonwealth Poll, conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University, had a similar problem, but to a much worse extent. They did not conduct a fi nal poll for the presidential race, but their predic-tion of a 15 percent victory for Allen was substantially diff erent from the fi nal results, Allen won by a mere 4.5 percent.

2000 Elections for U.S. House of Representatives

With the 2000 retirements of Herb Bateman (R- 1st), Owen Pickett (D- 2nd), and Tom Bliley, Jr. (R- 7th), Virginia’s infl uence in the United States Congress would take a substantial hit following the election. The three legislators had a combined 52 years of service in Congress, and held important positions on key committees, including Bliley’s important service as chairman of the House Commerce Committee. Bateman died on September 11, 2000, aft er representing the 1st district for 18 years. Still, the 2000 elections, to no one’s surprise, saw all eight incumbents retain their seats, while Republicans carried all three of the open seats.

As expected, Delegate Jo Ann Davis, who had survived a tough 5- person pri-mary, easily defeated Democrat and former Fredericksburg Mayor Lawrence Davies, Independent Josh Billings, and Libertarian candidate Sharon Wood with 57.5 percent of the vote in the heavily Republican 1st district. In the military and shipyard- heavy

TABLE 3.14Public Opinion-Poll Tracking, Presidential and U.S. Senate Elections in Virginia, 2000

Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Inc. RTD/News 12 Commonwealth Poll (VCU)

Sept. 7–8, ’99 July 12–14 Sept. 13–16 Oct. 24–25 Oct. 30–31 Sept. 22–Oct. 2 May 1–9 Oct. 18–24

PRESIDENT

Al Gore 32% 38% 39% 41% 41% 39% 41% —George W. Bush 51 49 49 48 49 46 45 —Undecided 9 10 10 7 6 3 10 —U.S. SENATE

Charles S. Robb 38 39 41 44 44 42 40 39George Allen 50 49 48 47 49 45 41 54Undecided 12 12 11 9 7 13 18 7MARGIN OF ERROR

(plus or minus) 4 4 4 4 4 4.4 5 4.5SAMPLE SIZE

(registered voters) 633 620 622 627 625 507 555 596

SOURCE: All polls listed were random sample surveys conducted by telephone during the general election campaign. (D) indicates a Democratic polling company. Polls with an asterisk were based on a sample of likely voters.


Tidewater 2nd district, Republicans picked up a formerly Democratic seat when state Senator Ed Schrock narrowly defeated Democrat Jody Wagner. Wagner, a well- funded moderate who had never held elective offi ce, did unexpectedly well by receiv-ing 48.0 percent of the vote in a district that by all accounts should have been won easily by the Republican candidate. Because it off ered a strong chance to switch col-umns in a close Congress, the 2nd district seat received attention and money from the national parties. The seat was one of only seven seats that switched from Democrat to Republican in the 2000 election.

In the 7th district, conservative Republican Eric I. Cantor, a 37- year old fi ve- term member of the Virginia House of Delegates, handily defeated Democrat War-ren A. Stewart, 66.9 percent to 33.0 percent. The real race for the opportunity to suc-ceed Tom Bliley in the strongly Republican 7th was in the primary, when the Gilmore and Bliley- endorsed Cantor edged out state Senator Stephen H. Martin by a mere 263 votes. The massive landslide by Cantor in the contested general election was not the only blowout in Virginia in 2000, as incumbents Virgil Goode (I) in the 5th (67.4 percent), Jim Moran (D) in the 8th (63.3 percent), Rick Boucher (D) in the 9th (69.8 percent), and Tom Davis (R) in the 11th (61.9 percent) easily overcame main- party opposition. Interestingly, the Republican Davis, won handily in the 11th district, which was carried by Democrats Al Gore and Chuck Robb in 2000.

Democrats Bobby Scott (3rd) and Norman Sisisky (4th), as well as Republican Bob Goodlatte (6th), ran unopposed, while Republican Frank Wolf from the 10th district received a minor challenge from two independent candidates, who between them garnered only 15.6 percent of the vote. The Virginia delegation for 2000 boasts six Republicans, four Democrats, and one Independent, although the Independent, Virgil Goode, caucuses with Congressional Republicans. The longest- serving Congressmen are Frank Wolf, Norman Sisisky, and Rick Boucher, who share over 56 years of combined experience on Capitol Hill.

As seen in Table 3.17, Republicans carried 46.7 percent of the votes cast in all the Congressional districts statewide, while Democrats garnered 43.7 percent of the overall vote. In the party- contested races, Republicans came in at 51.4 percent, while Democratic candidates in those races received a total of 46.4 percent. In the party- contested races, Republicans did less well than they did in 1998, but they now

Media General* ODU/Virginian-Pilot TNS Intersearch Garin-Hart-Yang (D) American Research Group Washington Post*

Sept. 22–Oct. 2 Oct. 27–Nov. 2 Aug 14–Sept. 10 Aug. 24–27 July 7–10 Sept. 13–19 Oct. 22–26

39% 40% 38% — — 38% 44%46 46 45 — — 47 5212 12 17 — — 10 5

42 43 32 43 42 — 4645 45 42 48 44 — 4813 12 26 9 14 — 5

4.4 3.7 4 3 4 4 3

507 735 647 1013 702 600 1009


TABLE 3.15Election Results & Campaign Spending, Virginia General Elections for U.S. Representatives, 2000

Districts Candidates Total Campaign Expenditures Number of Votes Percent of Votes

1 Lawrence A. Davies (D) $196,754 97,399 37.00%Jo Ann S. Davis (R) $373,654 151,344 57.5Sharon A. Wood (I) * 9,652 3.7Josh Billings (I) * 4,082 1.6Write-Ins — 537 0.2District Totals $570,408 263,014 100.0

2 Jody M. Wagner (D) $1,110,449 90,328 48.0Edward L. Schrock (R) $1,016,858 97,856 52.0Write-Ins — 145 0.1District Totals $2,127,307 188,329 100.0

3 Robert C. “Bobby” Scott (D) $237,345 137,527 97.7Write-Ins — 3,226 2.3District Totals $237,345 140,753 100.0

4 Norman Sisisky (D) $56,674 189,787 98.9Write-Ins — 2,108 1.1District Totals $56,674 191,895 100.0

5 Virgil H. Goode (I) $558,606 143,312 67.4John W. Boyd (D) $38,455 65,387 30.7John S. Spence (I) * 3,936 1.9Write-Ins — 70 0.0District Totals $597,061 212,705 100.0

6 Robert W. Goodlatte (R) $379,324 153,338 99.3Write-Ins — 1,145 0.7District Totals $379,324 154,483 100.0

7 Warren A. Stewart (D) $69,817 94,935 33.0Eric I. Cantor (R) $1,295,358 192,652 66.9Write-Ins — 304 0.1District Totals $1,365,175 287,891 100.0

8 James P. Moran, Jr. (D) $1,185,606 164,178 63.3Demaris H. Miller (R) $202,920 88,262 34.1R V. Crickenberger (I) $14,042 3,483 1.3Rick L. Herron (I) * 2,805 1.1Write-Ins — 471 0.2District Totals $1,402,568 259,199 100.0

9 Frederick C. Boucher (D) $662,560 137,488 69.8Michael D. Osborne (R) $24,154 59,335 30.1Write-Ins — 32 0.0District Totals $686,714 196,855 100.0

10 Frank R. Wolf (R) $455,634 238,817 84.2B M. Brown (I) $6,826 28,107 9.9M A. Rossi (I) * 16,031 5.7Write-Ins — 682 0.2District Totals $462,460 283,637 100.0

11 Thomas M. Davis (R) $1,461,162 150,395 61.9Michael L. Corrigan (D) $71,649 83,455 34.3R K. McBride (I) $10,781 4,774 2.0C. W. Levy (I) * 4,059 1.7Write-Ins — 285 0.1District Totals $1,543,592 242,968 100.0

STATE TOTALS $9,428,628

NOTE: * information not available.


TABLE 3.16Virginia General Election Results for U.S. Representatives, 1980–2000

District Incumbent as of 2000 (Party) Year of First Election 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

1 JoAnn S. Davis (R) 2000 57.52 Edward Schrock (R) 2000 52.03a Robert “Bobby” Scott (D) 1992 78.6 79.4 82.1 76.0 97.7*4 Norman Sisisky (D) 1982 54.4 99.9* 99.8* 99.9* 78.3* 68.4 61.6 78.6 97.0* 98.9*5 Virgil Goode (I) 1996 60.8 98.9* 67.46 Robert “Bob” Goodlatte (R) 1992 60.0 99.9* 67.0 69.3 99.3*7 Eric Cantor (R) 2000 66.98 James Moran (D) 1990 51.7 56.1 59.3 66.4 66.7 63.39 Frederick “Rick” Boucher (D) 1982 50.4 52.0 99.0 63.4 97.1* 63.1 58.8 65.0 60.9 69.810 Frank R. Wolf (R) 1980 51.1 52.7 62.5 60.2 68.0 61.5 63.6 87.3 72.0 71.6 84.2*

11a Thomas M. Davis (R) 1994 52.9 64.1 81.7* 61.9

SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial election results of the State Board of Elections.

NOTES: Party affi liations are abbreviated as (D) = Democrat; (R) = Republican; (I) = Independent.

* Denotes an instance where the incumbent ran unopposed or was opposed only by an independent or minor candidate.a The third, a black-majority District, and the Eleventh district in Northern Virginia were newly created by the General Assembly after the 1990 census.

TABLE 3.17Vote by Party, Virginia General Elections for U.S. Representatives, 1966–2000

Party 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

1966–2000

(Average)

ALL HOUSE ELECTIONS

Democratic 57.3% 48.4% 51.4% 49.4% 54.8% 45.5% 42.0% 31.3% 47.2% 43.3% 52.2% 42.4% 57.5% 48.5% 39.4% 46.7% 48.3% 43.7% 47.2%Republican 39.3 43.5 45.8 46.4 39.1 45.8 56.3 64.7 51.7 54.6 44.7 56.9 35.6 48.2 57.1 50.8 50.9 46.7 48.8Others 3.4 8.1 2.8 4.2 6.1 8.7 1.7 4.0 1.1 2.1 3.1 0.7 6.9 3.3 3.5 2.5 0.8 9.5 4.0Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%PARTY CONTESTED HOUSE ELECTIONS ONLY

Democratic 43.9% 47.4% 47.2% 40.7% 44.8% 47.0% 41.0% 40.5% 46.3% 44.1% 45.2% 46.6% 41.9% 54.4% 53.9% 50.5% 46.3% 46.4% 46.0%Republican 56.1 49.7 49.7 54.3 48.8 50.0 58.5 55.7 52.4 55.1 53.1 52.6 55.5 44.1 45.3 46.8 52.8 51.4 51.8Others 0.0 2.9 3.1 5.0 6.4 3.0 0.5 3.8 1.3 0.8 1.7 0.8 2.6 1.5 0.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.2Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%NUMBER OF HOUSE SEATS BY PARTY

Democratic 6 5 4 3 5 4 4 1 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 5Republican 4 5 6 7 5 6 6 9 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 6RAW VOTE TOTALS FOR 2000 WERE:

All House Elections Democrats 1,060,484 Republicans 1,131,999 Others 229,246Party-Contested Elections Only Democrats 667,783 Republicans 739,844

Others 30,629

SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial results of the State Board of Elections.

NOTES: The ‘others’ category includes write-ins, independents, and third-party candidates.

The total number of U.S. House seats for Virginia was ten until 1992. Beginning with the 1992 election, Virginia’s allocation increased to eleven.

have more seats, proving that there is not necessarily a strong correlation between the average statewide vote and the delegation Virginia sends to the U.S. House.

Democrats in the past decade have done well in party contested elections, win-ning majorities in 1992, 1994, and 1996. Since 1998, however, the Commonwealth has witnessed a trend toward Republican dominance on the Congressional level.


2000 Virginia Campaign Money: U.S. Senate and U.S. House Races

The Virginia Senate race was the seventh most expensive race in the country in 2000, with the candidates spending a combined total of $17.5 million. This amount, while impressive, was chump change compared to the $91.8 million spent in the Hillary Clinton / Rick Lazio New York Senate contest and the $63.2 million spent by John Corzine himself in the New Jersey Senate race. The amount was also close to the $16.7 million contest between Senator John Warner and multi- millionaire business-man Mark Warner in 1996, where the challenger spent $10.4 million of his own money in the race, but nowhere close to the $26 million U.S. Senate race between Robb and North in 1994.

George Allen spent $10,864,974 on the race, 79.3 percent of which came from individuals and 15.6 percent from PACs. Incumbent Chuck Robb spent $6,610,252 in attempting to defend his seat, 66.6 percent of which was given by individuals and 24.8 percent from PACs. It is highly unusual for a two- term incumbent such as Robb to be outspent, much less by a wide margin and by a candidate not pouring millions of his own funds into a campaign. This is yet another sign that Robb had not prepared fully for this duel. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent, so they put every-thing they had into bombarding voters in the fi nal months with television advertise-ments that largely focused on attacking each other’s records. Allen spent about $7.65 per vote he received in 2000, while Robb rang in at $5.10 per vote he received.

TABLE 3.18Campaign Spending in U.S. Senate Contests in Virginia, 1978–2000

Dollars Spent by (in rounded millions)a

Year Democrats Republicans Independents Total Prev. Election

2000 $6.6 $10.9 — $17.5 7.60%1996 11.5 5.2 — 16.2 –36%1994 5.4 19.8 0.8 26.0 2500%1990 — 0.9 0.1 1.0 –68%1988 2.8 0.3 — 3.1 7%1984 0.5 2.4 — 2.9 –9%1982 1.2 2.0 — 3.2 14%

1978 1.0 1.8 — 2.8 —

SOURCES: Federal Election Commission and previous volumes of Virginia Votes. a Includes nomination and general election expenditures.

TABLE 3.19Campaign Spending in U.S. House Contests in Virginia, 1982–2000

Year

Total Spending in Millions:

U.S. House Candidates in Virginia

Percent Increase (Decrease)

from Previous Election

2000 $9.43 40%1998 5.63 –181996 6.83 –311994 9.89 91992 9.06 611990 5.62 191988 4.74 –281986 6.57 121984 5.88 45

1982 4.04 —


Every House incumbent substantially outspent his challenger, which may help to explain the considerable margins by which they won. Democrat Jim Moran and Republican Tom Davis were the only incumbents to spend over $1 million. Independent Virgil Goode, Democrat Rick Boucher, and Republican Frank Wolf also spent around half a million apiece defending their seats against marginal can-didates, while Democrats Bobby Scott and Norman Sisisky spent $237,345 and $56,674 respectively in their uncontested elections.

The three open- seat races were more interesting. The 1st district race be-tween Jo Ann Davis and Lawrence Davies featured modest spending (a combined $570,408). Spending in the closely contested 2nd district reached $2.1 million with both candidates receiving money from state and national committees. Wagner, the Democrat, slightly outspent her opponent Schrock, $1,110,449 to $1,016,858. Republican Eric Cantor in the strongly GOP 7th district spent nearly $1.3 million on his bid, over 18 times the amount spent by Democratic candidate Warren Stewart. Most of Cantor’s cash, though, had been spent to win the primary—the real election in this one- party district.

Due to increased competition and national focus on a couple of open seats, spending in Virginia Congressional races increased over 40 percent from $5.6 mil-lion in 1998 to over $9.4 million in 2000, comparable to the $9.89 million spent in 1994.

Constitutional Amendments

Both constitutional amendments on the November ballot passed with overwhelming support. The fi rst proposed amendment, which provides for state lottery revenues to be allocated to the localities for public education, received 83.5 percent of the vote, carrying every congressional district by a similar margin. The amendment’s passage determined that the General Assembly no longer has the broad discretion it had pre-viously to appropriate the lottery profi ts for any public purpose. The practical eff ect is modest, however, since both Republicans and Democrats in the General Assembly ordinarily allocate funds from the Virginia Lottery for educational purposes.

The second proposed amendment, concerning the right to hunt and fi sh, stirred up more controversy, yet passed easily with 59.9 percent of the vote. The issue was one near and dear to many Virginians who reside outside the urban corridor. Proponents, led by the Virginia Heritage Foundation, claimed that the right of Virginians “to hunt, fi sh, and harvest game” had become increasingly endangered by develop-ment and gun restrictions. The governor and both Senate candidates endorsed the

TABLE 3.20Ballot Fall-off , Virginia Elections, 1980–2000

Year Number of Issues/Amendments on Ballot % of Voters Casting Vote on Last Ballot Item

1980 4 68.3%1982 3 72.81986 4 81.61990 4 87.51992 4 81.91994 3 80.11996 5 80.91998 5 85.3

2000 2 86.7


proposal. Some opposition to the bill came from the left , with organizations such as PETA trying to block the bill from making it onto the ballot. Others opposed the bill on the basis that it was frivolous and not a concern that required amending the Virginia Constitution. State Senator Janet Howell, a Fairfax Democrat, tried to amend the proposal so that it would also protect Virginians’ rights to shop and play golf. Her amendment, which would have eff ectively killed the measure in the Senate and prohibited it from being on the November ballot, came within two votes of be-ing adopted. The issue was regionally divisive, as Northern Virginia was much less supportive than the rest of the state. The only Congressional district that did not support the amendment was the urban Alexandria 8th, while the issue received the highest support in the rural Southside 5th (68.1 percent), the Mountain- Valley 6th (69.2 percent) and the Southwest 9th (75.8 percent).

With only two relatively straightforward constitutional issues to vote on, ballot fatigue was considerably lower than in recent years, with 88.7 percent of Virginians voting on the last measure on the ballot. That percentage is a 20- year high and com-pares favorably to the 68.3 percent who voted on the last ballot item in the 1980 presidential election, for example. Oddly enough, the ballot fall- off was most pro-nounced in the rural Southside 5th district, where over 25 percent of the voters did not cast a ballot on the right to hunt and fi sh. Had they voted on the issue, however, it is likely that the percentage by which the amendment passed would have only been higher.

2000 General Assembly Special Elections

The only General Assembly election on the November ballot was for the 15th state Senate district, which stretches 165 miles from Suff olk to Appomattox in rural Tidewater / Southside Virginia. Democratic Senator Richard Holland, a twenty- year veteran of the Virginia Senate, died in April 2000 from cancer, leaving the seat open. Republican Delegate Frank M. Ruff ran for the Senate seat against Jerry Flowers, the Democratic candidate who formerly ran against Holland as a Republican in 1995. In a close race, Ruff defeated 30,395 to 28,235, a margin of only 2,000 votes.

On December 19, 2000, elections were held in three House districts and one

TABLE 3.21Virginia Proposed Constitutional Amendments, Election Results by Congressional District, 2000

Percent Voting “Yes” on

Congressional District

#1

Lottery Funds for Education

#2

Right to Hunt/Fish

1 84.3 61.82 86.8 58.03 85.5 57.54 87.8 65.55 86.5 68.16 87.2 69.27 82.6 58.78 76.7 43.39 89.7 75.810 79.9 58.711 77.6 50.4

Statewide 83.5 59.9



Senate district to replace members elected to other positions in November. In the Virginia Beach 7th state Senate district, which had been formerly held by now- Congressman Ed Schrock, Republican Frank Wagner coasted to an easy 68.8 per-cent to 31.1 percent win over Democrat Louisa Strayhorn, with 11,041 votes to Strayhorn’s 4,998. Republicans also were victorious in retaining three House seats in the special election. Tommy Wright, Jr., from Mecklenburg defeated Democrat Frank Bacon in the Southside 61st district for the seat left vacant by the election

FIGURE 3.09The 2000 Vote on Lottery Proceeds, Constitutional Amendment, by Cities


FIGURE 3.10The 2000 Vote on Lottery Proceeds, Constitutional Amendment, by Counties



of Ruff to the Virginia State Senate (Wright won by a margin of almost 900 votes, 5,097 to 4,205). In suburban Richmond, Republican John O’Bannon handily de-feated Independent Sterling Hening, 2,950 to 436, to retain control of Eric Cantor’s former seat in one of the most Republican districts in Virginia. The closest race pit-ted Republican Melanie Rapp and Democrat Patrick Pettitt for the York County 96th, left vacant by Jo Ann Davis’ election to Congress. Rapp edged out Pettitt, 51.1 percent to 48.8 percent (5,049 to Pettit’s 4,819) in a low- turnout race.

The fi nal special election was held January 9, 2001, in the 21st House district

FIGURE 3.11The 2000 Vote on the Right to Hunt, Fish, and Harvest Game, Constitutional Amendment, by Cities


FIGURE 3.12The 2000 Vote on the Right to Hunt, Fish, and Harvest Game, Constitutional Amendment, by Counties



TABLE 3.22Ballot Fall-off , Virginia General Election, 2000

Percent of Votes Cast for Offi ce to Total Persons Voting

Congressional District President U.S. Senator U.S. Representative

Constitutional Amendment #2

(Right to Hunt/Fish)

1 97.7 97.2 92.5 90.42 98.1 98.5 97.6 95.53* 97.1 97.4 76.4 88.04* 97.5 97.6 78.8 88.85 97.5 95.6 86.8 74.86* 98.2 97.4 65.4 87.07 98.6 98.3 90.7 92.28 99.0 98.1 94.8 93.99 97.5 95.4 89.6 80.310* 98.8 97.7 84.9 91.411 99.2 98.0 93.9 91.4

Statewide 98.2 97.4 86.8 88.7

SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial election results of the State Board of Elections.

* Denotes a race in which the incumbent was either unopposed or opposed by an independent or third-party candidate(s).

TABLE 3.23Special Election Results in Virginia , 2000

Race Candidate (Party) Total Number of Votes Percent

15th State Senate District—November 7, 2000 Jerry B. Flowers, III (D) 28,235 47.5%Frank M. Ruff (R) 30,395 51.1Amos D. Neill (I) 826 1.4Write-ins 16 0.0Total 59,477 100.0

7th State Senate District—December 19, 2000 Frank W. Wagner (R) 11,041 68.8Louisa M. Strayhorn (D) 4,998 31.1Write-ins 19 0.1Total 16,058 100.0

61st State House District—December 19, 2000 Thomas C. Wright, Jr. (R) 5,097 54.8Frank W. Bacon (D) 4,205 45.2Write-ins 5 0.1Total 9,307 100.0

73rd State House District—December 19, 2000 John M. O’Bannon (R) 2,950 87.0Sterling W. Hening (I) 436 12.9Write-ins 6 0.2Total 3,392 100.0

96th State House District—December 19, 2000 Melanie L. Rapp (R) 5,049 51.1Patrick R. Pettitt (D) 4,819 48.8Write-ins 9 0.1Total 9,877 100.0

21st State House District—January 19, 2001 John J. Welch, III 2,533 61.4Alan P. Holmes 1,572 38.1Write-ins 18 0.4

Total 4,123 100.0


in Virginia Beach to replace state Senator- elect Frank Wagner. In a brief but bitter campaign full of negative attacks, Republican John Welch defeated rival Democrat Alan Holmes in a landslide, although only 11 percent of registered voters in the district cast a ballot. Welch defeated Holmes with 2,533 to 1,572 votes. This win capped a fi ve to zero special election run for the Republicans. With the Virginia GOP maintaining all fi ve seats in the General Assembly, the Senate remained di-vided at 22 Republicans and 18 Democrats, while the House of Delegates has 47 Democrats and 52 Republicans and one Republican- Independent, Delegate Lacey Putney of Bedford.

A Retrospective Summing Up: Conservative, but Competitive

Aft er the 2000 elections, the Commonwealth of Virginia was controlled entirely by Republicans. Both houses of the state legislature, the governor, lieutenant gov-ernor, attorney general, both United States Senators, and seven of the eleven Congressmen (eight if you count conservative Independent Virgil Goode) are Republican. Republican presidential candidates have carried the Old Dominion in all but one election since 1948. Governor Jim Gilmore was even selected Chairman of the Republican National Committee by President- elect George W. Bush. The Republican Party in Virginia is at its apex. Yet the Commonwealth of Virginia is still, without a doubt, two- party competitive as we enter into the 21st century. Why and how?

Democrats, although they do not have a majority in either branch of the leg-islature, could regain control with only a few net seat gains. With the growth of Northern Virginia, Democrats have an increased long- term chance at winning state-wide offi ce, either in the governor’s mansion or in the United States Senate. It seems unlikely that Democrats will make huge strides in having more representation in the Congressional delegation or General Assembly, especially given the Republican controlled 2001 redistricting, but that is strongly underscored by the increasingly stark regional diff erences in Virginia. Democrats can win, however, with well- funded moderate candidates who run in years where circumstances allow them to win, such as economy, scandal, or a national trend against Republican candidates. ★


APPENDIX 2General Election for President and Vice President, November 7, 2000

George W. Bush (R)

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

STATE 2,739,447 1,437,490 52.5%

CITIES 813,929 374,056 46.0% –6.5% 26.0%

Alexandria 55,199 19,043 34.5% –18.0% 1.3%Bedford (City) 2,441 1,269 52.0% –0.5% 0.1%Bristol 6,279 3,495 55.7% 3.2% 0.2%Buena Vista 1,975 980 49.6% –2.9% 0.1%Charlottesville 13,224 4,034 30.5% –22.0% 0.3%Chesapeake 74,585 39,684 53.2% 0.7% 2.8%Clifton Forge 1,532 613 40.0% –12.5% 0.0%Colonial Heights 7,782 5,519 70.9% 18.4% 0.4%Covington 2,214 966 43.6% –8.8% 0.1%Danville 18,307 9,427 51.5% –1.0% 0.7%Emporia 2,080 938 45.1% –7.4% 0.1%Fairfax (City) 9,556 4,762 49.8% –2.6% 0.3%Falls Church 5,593 2,131 38.1% –14.4% 0.1%Franklin 3,191 1,393 43.7% –8.8% 0.1%Fredericksburg 6,681 2,935 43.9% –8.5% 0.2%Galax 2,213 1,160 52.4% –0.1% 0.1%Hampton 47,887 19,561 40.8% –11.6% 1.4%Harrisonburg 9,958 5,741 57.7% 5.2% 0.4%Hopewell 6,978 3,749 53.7% 1.3% 0.3%Lexington 2,140 957 44.7% –7.8% 0.1%Lynchburg 23,506 12,518 53.3% 0.8% 0.9%Manassas Park 2,580 1,460 56.6% 4.1% 0.1%Manassas 12,410 6,752 54.4% 1.9% 0.5%Martinsville 5,694 2,560 45.0% –7.5% 0.2%Newport News 57,825 27,006 46.7% –5.8% 1.9%Norfolk 61,946 21,920 35.4% –17.1% 1.5%Norton 1,530 639 41.8% –10.7% 0.0%Petersburg 11,062 2,109 19.1% –33.4% 0.1%Poquoson 5,861 4,271 72.9% 20.4% 0.3%Portsmouth 35,455 12,628 35.6% –16.9% 0.9%Radford 4,448 2,190 49.2% –3.2% 0.2%Richmond (City) 65,926 20,265 30.7% –21.7% 1.4%Roanoke (City) 33,442 14,630 43.7% –8.7% 1.0%Salem 10,770 6,188 57.5% 5.0% 0.4%Staunton 8,514 4,878 57.3% 4.8% 0.3%Suff olk 24,661 11,836 48.0% –4.5% 0.8%Va. Beach 149,771 83,674 55.9% 3.4% 5.8%Waynesboro 7,102 4,084 57.5% 5.0% 0.3%Williamsburg 3,725 1,777 47.7% –4.8% 0.1%Winchester 7,886 4,314 54.7% 2.2% 0.3%COUNTIES 1,925,518 1,063,434 55.2% 2.8% 74.0%

Accomack 11,925 6,352 53.3% 0.8% 0.4%Albemarle 36,846 18,291 49.6% –2.8% 1.3%Alleghany 5,123 2,808 54.8% 2.3% 0.2%Amelia 4,788 2,947 61.5% 9.1% 0.2%Amherst 11,712 6,660 56.9% 4.4% 0.5%Appomattox 5,927 3,654 61.7% 9.2% 0.3%Arlington 83,559 28,555 34.2% –18.3% 2.0%Augusta 25,271 17,744 70.2% 17.7% 1.2%Bath 2,210 1,311 59.3% 6.8% 0.1%Bedford (Co.) 26,149 17,224 65.9% 13.4% 1.2%


Al Gore (D) Ralph Nader (G)

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

1,217,290 44.4% 59,398 2.2%

415,718 51.1% 6.6% 34.2% 17,035 2.1% –0.1% 28.7%

33,633 60.9% 16.5% 2.8% 2,094 3.8% 1.6% 3.5%1,078 44.2% –0.3% 0.1% 38 1.6% –0.6% 0.1%2,646 42.1% –2.3% 0.2% 89 1.4% –0.8% 0.1%

941 47.6% 3.2% 0.1% 27 1.4% –0.8% 0.0%7,762 58.7% 14.3% 0.6% 1,196 9.0% 6.9% 2.0%

33,578 45.0% 0.6% 2.8% 732 1.0% –1.2% 1.2%868 56.7% 12.2% 0.1% 25 1.6% –0.5% 0.0%

2,100 27.0% –17.5% 0.2% 123 1.6% –0.6% 0.2%1,168 52.8% 8.3% 0.1% 24 1.1% –1.1% 0.0%8,221 44.9% 0.5% 0.7% 168 0.9% –1.3% 0.3%1,116 53.7% 9.2% 0.1% 17 0.8% –1.4% 0.0%4,361 45.6% 1.2% 0.4% 352 3.7% 1.5% 0.6%3,109 55.6% 11.2% 0.3% 285 5.1% 2.9% 0.5%1,763 55.2% 10.8% 0.1% 25 0.8% –1.4% 0.0%3,360 50.3% 5.9% 0.3% 326 4.9% 2.7% 0.5%

996 45.0% 0.6% 0.1% 42 1.9% –0.3% 0.1%27,490 57.4% 13.0% 2.3% 563 1.2% –1.0% 0.9%

3,482 35.0% –9.5% 0.3% 641 6.4% 4.3% 1.1%3,024 43.3% –1.1% 0.2% 73 1.0% –1.1% 0.1%1,048 49.0% 4.5% 0.1% 103 4.8% 2.6% 0.2%

10,374 44.1% –0.3% 0.9% 441 1.9% –0.3% 0.7%1,048 40.6% –3.8% 0.1% 51 2.0% –0.2% 0.1%5,262 42.4% –2.0% 0.4% 230 1.9% –0.3% 0.4%3,048 53.5% 9.1% 0.3% 59 1.0% –1.1% 0.1%

29,779 51.5% 7.1% 2.4% 722 1.2% –0.9% 1.2%38,221 61.7% 17.3% 3.1% 1,153 1.9% –0.3% 1.9%

867 56.7% 12.2% 0.1% 20 1.3% –0.9% 0.0%8,751 79.1% 34.7% 0.7% 117 1.1% –1.1% 0.2%1,448 24.7% –19.7% 0.1% 93 1.6% –0.6% 0.2%

22,286 62.9% 18.4% 1.8% 348 1.0% –1.2% 0.6%2,063 46.4% 1.9% 0.2% 172 3.9% 1.7% 0.3%

42,717 64.8% 20.4% 3.5% 2,425 3.7% 1.5% 4.1%17,920 53.6% 9.1% 1.5% 603 1.8% –0.4% 1.0%

4,348 40.4% –4.1% 0.4% 181 1.7% –0.5% 0.3%3,324 39.0% –5.4% 0.3% 278 3.3% 1.1% 0.5%

12,471 50.6% 6.1% 1.0% 199 0.8% –1.4% 0.3%62,268 41.6% –2.9% 5.1% 2,370 1.6% –0.6% 4.0%

2,737 38.5% –5.9% 0.2% 233 3.3% 1.1% 0.4%1,724 46.3% 1.8% 0.1% 188 5.0% 2.9% 0.3%3,318 42.1% –2.4% 0.3% 209 2.7% 0.5% 0.4%

801,572 41.6% –2.8% 65.8% 42,363 2.2% 0.0% 71.3%

5,092 42.7% –1.7% 0.4% 220 1.8% –0.3% 0.4%16,255 44.1% –0.3% 1.3% 2,043 5.5% 3.4% 3.4%

2,214 43.2% –1.2% 0.2% 62 1.2% –1.0% 0.1%1,754 36.6% –7.8% 0.1% 40 0.8% –1.3% 0.1%4,812 41.1% –3.3% 0.4% 135 1.2% –1.0% 0.2%2,132 36.0% –8.5% 0.2% 62 1.0% –1.1% 0.1%

50,260 60.1% 15.7% 4.1% 3,952 4.7% 2.6% 6.7%6,643 26.3% –18.1% 0.5% 527 2.1% –0.1% 0.9%

822 37.2% –7.2% 0.1% 35 1.6% –0.6% 0.1%8,160 31.2% –13.2% 0.7% 376 1.4% –0.7% 0.6%

(continued )


APPENDIX 2General Election for President and Vice President, November 7, 2000 (continued )

George W. Bush (R)

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Bland 2,688 1,759 65.4% 13.0% 0.1%Botetourt 13,840 8,867 64.1% 11.6% 0.6%Brunswick 5,997 2,561 42.7% –9.8% 0.2%Buchanan 9,856 3,867 39.2% –13.2% 0.3%Buckingham 5,454 2,738 50.2% –2.3% 0.2%Campbell 20,327 13,162 64.8% 12.3% 0.9%Caroline 8,351 3,873 46.4% –6.1% 0.3%Carroll 11,001 7,142 64.9% 12.4% 0.5%Charles City 3,066 1,023 33.4% –19.1% 0.1%Charlotte 4,994 2,855 57.2% 4.7% 0.2%Chesterfi eld 110,951 69,924 63.0% 10.5% 4.9%Clarke 5,284 2,883 54.6% 2.1% 0.2%Craig 2,493 1,580 63.4% 10.9% 0.1%Culpeper 12,244 7,440 60.8% 8.3% 0.5%Cumberland 3,507 1,974 56.3% 3.8% 0.1%Dickenson 7,226 3,122 43.2% –9.3% 0.2%Dinwiddie 9,136 4,959 54.3% 1.8% 0.3%Essex 3,831 1,995 52.1% –0.4% 0.1%Fairfax (Co.) 413,775 202,181 48.9% –3.6% 14.1%Fauquier 23,481 14,456 61.6% 9.1% 1.0%Floyd 5,739 3,423 59.6% 7.2% 0.2%Fluvanna 8,706 4,962 57.0% 4.5% 0.3%Franklin 18,829 11,225 59.6% 7.1% 0.8%Frederick 22,392 14,574 65.1% 12.6% 1.0%Giles 6,820 3,574 52.4% –0.1% 0.2%Gloucester 13,699 8,718 63.6% 11.2% 0.6%Goochland 8,777 5,378 61.3% 8.8% 0.4%Grayson 6,852 4,236 61.8% 9.3% 0.3%Greene 5,412 3,375 62.4% 9.9% 0.2%Greensville 3,906 1,565 40.1% –12.4% 0.1%Halifax 14,072 7,732 54.9% 2.5% 0.5%Hanover 41,585 28,614 68.8% 16.3% 2.0%Henrico 114,252 62,887 55.0% 2.6% 4.4%Henry 21,463 11,870 55.3% 2.8% 0.8%Highland 1,437 942 65.6% 13.1% 0.1%Isle of Wight 12,950 7,587 58.6% 6.1% 0.5%James City 24,492 14,628 59.7% 7.3% 1.0%King and Queen 2,859 1,423 49.8% –2.7% 0.1%King George 5,852 3,590 61.3% 8.9% 0.2%King William 5,769 3,547 61.5% 9.0% 0.2%Lancaster 5,455 3,411 62.5% 10.1% 0.2%Lee 8,748 4,551 52.0% –0.5% 0.3%Loudoun 75,653 42,453 56.1% 3.6% 3.0%Louisa 10,096 5,461 54.1% 1.6% 0.4%Lunenburg 4,591 2,510 54.7% 2.2% 0.2%Madison 5,027 2,940 58.5% 6.0% 0.2%Mathews 4,609 2,951 64.0% 11.6% 0.2%Mecklenburg 11,654 6,600 56.6% 4.2% 0.5%Middlesex 4,689 2,844 60.7% 8.2% 0.2%Montgomery 27,160 13,991 51.5% –1.0% 1.0%



Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

851 31.7% –12.8% 0.1% 42 1.6% –0.6% 0.1%4,627 33.4% –11.0% 0.4% 207 1.5% –0.7% 0.3%3,387 56.5% 12.0% 0.3% 28 0.5% –1.7% 0.0%5,745 58.3% 13.9% 0.5% 65 0.7% –1.5% 0.1%2,561 47.0% 2.5% 0.2% 96 1.8% –0.4% 0.2%6,659 32.8% –11.7% 0.5% 236 1.2% –1.0% 0.4%4,314 51.7% 7.2% 0.4% 102 1.2% –0.9% 0.2%3,638 33.1% –11.4% 0.3% 126 1.1% –1.0% 0.2%1,981 64.6% 20.2% 0.2% 31 1.0% –1.2% 0.1%2,017 40.4% –4.0% 0.2% 43 0.9% –1.3% 0.1%

38,638 34.8% –9.6% 3.2% 1,646 1.5% –0.7% 2.8%2,166 41.0% –3.4% 0.2% 195 3.7% 1.5% 0.3%

851 34.1% –10.3% 0.1% 39 1.6% –0.6% 0.1%4,364 35.6% –8.8% 0.4% 253 2.1% –0.1% 0.4%1,405 40.1% –4.4% 0.1% 35 1.0% –1.2% 0.1%3,951 54.7% 10.2% 0.3% 85 1.2% –1.0% 0.1%4,001 43.8% –0.6% 0.3% 74 0.8% –1.4% 0.1%1,750 45.7% 1.2% 0.1% 59 1.5% –0.6% 0.1%

196,501 47.5% 3.1% 16.1% 12,201 2.9% 0.8% 20.5%8,296 35.3% –9.1% 0.7% 570 2.4% 0.3% 1.0%1,957 34.1% –10.3% 0.2% 244 4.3% 2.1% 0.4%3,431 39.4% –5.0% 0.3% 252 2.9% 0.7% 0.4%7,145 37.9% –6.5% 0.6% 303 1.6% –0.6% 0.5%7,158 32.0% –12.5% 0.6% 483 2.2% 0.0% 0.8%3,004 44.0% –0.4% 0.2% 137 2.0% –0.2% 0.2%4,553 33.2% –11.2% 0.4% 225 1.6% –0.5% 0.4%3,197 36.4% –8.0% 0.3% 139 1.6% –0.6% 0.2%2,467 36.0% –8.4% 0.2% 102 1.5% –0.7% 0.2%1,774 32.8% –11.7% 0.1% 194 3.6% 1.4% 0.3%2,314 59.2% 14.8% 0.2% 13 0.3% –1.8% 0.0%5,963 42.4% –2.1% 0.5% 110 0.8% –1.4% 0.2%

12,044 29.0% –15.5% 1.0% 711 1.7% –0.5% 1.2%48,645 42.6% –1.9% 4.0% 1,893 1.7% –0.5% 3.2%

8,898 41.5% –3.0% 0.7% 234 1.1% –1.1% 0.4%453 31.5% –12.9% 0.0% 32 2.2% 0.1% 0.1%

5,162 39.9% –4.6% 0.4% 123 0.9% –1.2% 0.2%9,090 37.1% –7.3% 0.7% 639 2.6% 0.4% 1.1%1,387 48.5% 4.1% 0.1% 33 1.2% –1.0% 0.1%2,070 35.4% –9.1% 0.2% 132 2.3% 0.1% 0.2%2,125 36.8% –7.6% 0.2% 74 1.3% –0.9% 0.1%1,937 35.5% –8.9% 0.2% 88 1.6% –0.6% 0.1%4,031 46.1% 1.6% 0.3% 79 0.9% –1.3% 0.1%

30,938 40.9% –3.5% 2.5% 1,665 2.2% 0.0% 2.8%4,309 42.7% –1.8% 0.4% 222 2.2% 0.0% 0.4%2,026 44.1% –0.3% 0.2% 33 0.7% –1.4% 0.1%1,844 36.7% –7.8% 0.2% 148 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%1,499 32.5% –11.9% 0.1% 88 1.9% –0.3% 0.1%4,797 41.2% –3.3% 0.4% 104 0.9% –1.3% 0.2%1,671 35.6% –8.8% 0.1% 84 1.8% –0.4% 0.1%

11,720 43.2% –1.3% 1.0% 1,222 4.5% 2.3% 2.1%(continued )


APPENDIX 2General Election for President and Vice President, November 7, 2000 (continued )

George W. Bush (R)

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Nelson 6,145 2,913 47.4% –5.1% 0.2%New Kent 6,114 3,934 64.3% 11.9% 0.3%Northampton 4,892 2,299 47.0% –5.5% 0.2%Northumberland 5,605 3,362 60.0% 7.5% 0.2%Nottoway 5,492 2,870 52.3% –0.2% 0.2%Orange 10,483 5,991 57.1% 4.7% 0.4%Page 7,996 5,089 63.6% 11.2% 0.4%Patrick 7,385 4,901 66.4% 13.9% 0.3%Pittsylvania 24,255 15,760 65.0% 12.5% 1.1%Powhatan 9,711 6,820 70.2% 17.8% 0.5%Prince Edward 6,363 3,214 50.5% –2.0% 0.2%Prince George 10,900 6,579 60.4% 7.9% 0.5%Prince William 100,511 52,788 52.5% 0.0% 3.7%Pulaski 12,697 7,089 55.8% 3.4% 0.5%Rappahannock 3,513 1,850 52.7% 0.2% 0.1%Richmond (Co.) 2,949 1,784 60.5% 8.0% 0.1%Roanoke (Co.) 42,817 25,740 60.1% 7.6% 1.8%Rockbridge 7,827 4,522 57.8% 5.3% 0.3%Rockingham 23,994 17,482 72.9% 20.4% 1.2%Russell 10,792 5,065 46.9% –5.5% 0.4%Scott 9,335 5,535 59.3% 6.8% 0.4%Shenandoah 14,452 9,636 66.7% 14.2% 0.7%Smyth 11,740 6,580 56.0% 3.6% 0.5%Southampton 6,714 3,293 49.0% –3.4% 0.2%Spotsylvania 35,021 20,739 59.2% 6.7% 1.4%Staff ord 34,246 20,731 60.5% 8.1% 1.4%Surry 3,230 1,313 40.7% –11.8% 0.1%Sussex 3,906 1,745 44.7% –7.8% 0.1%Tazewell 16,344 8,655 53.0% 0.5% 0.6%Warren 11,166 6,335 56.7% 4.3% 0.4%Washington 20,222 12,064 59.7% 7.2% 0.8%Westmoreland 6,026 2,932 48.7% –3.8% 0.2%Wise 13,310 6,504 48.9% –3.6% 0.5%Wythe 10,225 6,539 64.0% 11.5% 0.5%York 24,583 15,312 62.3% 9.8% 1.1%



Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

2,907 47.3% 2.9% 0.2% 273 4.4% 2.3% 0.5%2,055 33.6% –10.8% 0.2% 81 1.3% –0.8% 0.1%2,340 47.8% 3.4% 0.2% 108 2.2% 0.0% 0.2%2,118 37.8% –6.6% 0.2% 97 1.7% –0.4% 0.2%2,460 44.8% 0.4% 0.2% 46 0.8% –1.3% 0.1%4,126 39.4% –5.1% 0.3% 236 2.3% 0.1% 0.4%2,726 34.1% –10.3% 0.2% 143 1.8% –0.4% 0.2%2,254 30.5% –13.9% 0.2% 101 1.4% –0.8% 0.2%7,834 32.3% –12.1% 0.6% 207 0.9% –1.3% 0.3%2,708 27.9% –16.5% 0.2% 122 1.3% –0.9% 0.2%2,922 45.9% 1.5% 0.2% 115 1.8% –0.4% 0.2%4,182 38.4% –6.1% 0.3% 97 0.9% –1.3% 0.2%

44,745 44.5% 0.1% 3.7% 1,927 1.9% –0.3% 3.2%5,255 41.4% –3.0% 0.4% 207 1.6% –0.5% 0.3%1,462 41.6% –2.8% 0.1% 161 4.6% 2.4% 0.3%1,076 36.5% –7.9% 0.1% 44 1.5% –0.7% 0.1%

16,141 37.7% –6.7% 1.3% 681 1.6% –0.6% 1.1%2,953 37.7% –6.7% 0.2% 248 3.2% 1.0% 0.4%5,834 24.3% –20.1% 0.5% 539 2.2% 0.1% 0.9%5,442 50.4% 6.0% 0.4% 102 0.9% –1.2% 0.2%3,552 38.1% –6.4% 0.3% 85 0.9% –1.3% 0.1%4,420 30.6% –13.9% 0.4% 294 2.0% –0.1% 0.5%4,836 41.2% –3.2% 0.4% 131 1.1% –1.1% 0.2%3,359 50.0% 5.6% 0.3% 44 0.7% –1.5% 0.1%

13,455 38.4% –6.0% 1.1% 586 1.7% –0.5% 1.0%12,596 36.8% –7.7% 1.0% 657 1.9% –0.2% 1.1%

1,845 57.1% 12.7% 0.2% 29 0.9% –1.3% 0.0%2,006 51.4% 6.9% 0.2% 41 1.0% –1.1% 0.1%7,227 44.2% –0.2% 0.6% 162 1.0% –1.2% 0.3%4,313 38.6% –5.8% 0.4% 260 2.3% 0.2% 0.4%7,549 37.3% –7.1% 0.6% 288 1.4% –0.7% 0.5%2,922 48.5% 4.1% 0.2% 88 1.5% –0.7% 0.1%6,412 48.2% 3.7% 0.5% 160 1.2% –1.0% 0.3%3,462 33.9% –10.6% 0.3% 132 1.3% –0.9% 0.2%8,622 35.1% –9.4% 0.7% 480 2.0% –0.2% 0.8%


APPENDIX 3General Election for U.S. Senate, November 7, 2000

G. F. Allen (R) C. S. Robb (D)

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

STATE 2,718,301 1,420,460 52.3% 1,296,093 47.7%

CITIES 811,382 367,360 45.3% –7.0% 25.9% 443,329 54.6% 6.9% 34.2%

Alexandria 54,846 18,624 34.0% –18.3% 1.3% 36,107 65.8% 18.1% 2.8%Bedford (City) 2,379 1,218 51.2% –1.1% 0.1% 1,161 48.8% 1.1% 0.1%Bristol 6,239 3,706 59.4% 7.1% 0.3% 2,528 40.5% –7.2% 0.2%Buena Vista 1,955 1,024 52.4% 0.1% 0.1% 931 47.6% –0.1% 0.1%Charlottesville 13,206 4,012 30.4% –21.9% 0.3% 9,177 69.5% 21.8% 0.7%Chesapeake 74,994 38,833 51.8% –0.5% 2.7% 36,120 48.2% 0.5% 2.8%Clifton Forge 1,510 616 40.8% –11.5% 0.0% 894 59.2% 11.5% 0.1%Colonial Heights 7,865 5,521 70.2% 17.9% 0.4% 2,334 29.7% –18.0% 0.2%Covington 2,198 995 45.3% –7.0% 0.1% 1,203 54.7% 7.0% 0.1%Danville 17,518 9,152 52.2% –0.1% 0.6% 8,365 47.8% 0.1% 0.6%Emporia 2,054 986 48.0% –4.3% 0.1% 1,068 52.0% 4.3% 0.1%Fairfax (City) 9,462 4,677 49.4% –2.9% 0.3% 4,777 50.5% 2.8% 0.4%Falls Church 5,532 1,988 35.9% –16.4% 0.1% 3,528 63.8% 16.1% 0.3%Franklin 3,236 1,363 42.1% –10.2% 0.1% 1,871 57.8% 10.1% 0.1%Fredericksburg 6,711 2,809 41.7% –10.6% 0.2% 3,889 58.0% 10.3% 0.3%Galax 2,148 1,162 54.1% 1.8% 0.1% 986 45.9% –1.8% 0.1%Hampton 48,105 19,149 39.8% –12.5% 1.3% 28,892 60.1% 12.4% 2.2%Harrisonburg 9,903 5,735 57.9% 5.6% 0.4% 4,144 41.9% –5.8% 0.3%Hopewell 6,759 3,832 56.7% 4.4% 0.3% 2,927 43.3% –4.4% 0.2%Lexington 2,078 901 43.4% –8.9% 0.1% 1,177 56.6% 8.9% 0.1%Lynchburg 23,604 12,421 52.6% 0.3% 0.9% 11,147 47.2% –0.5% 0.9%Manassas Park 2,527 1,497 59.2% 6.9% 0.1% 1,029 40.7% –7.0% 0.1%Manassas 12,100 6,866 56.7% 4.4% 0.5% 5,233 43.3% –4.4% 0.4%Martinsville 5,710 2,693 47.2% –5.1% 0.2% 3,009 52.7% 5.0% 0.2%Newport News 57,998 26,099 45.0% –7.3% 1.8% 31,830 54.9% 7.2% 2.5%Norfolk 62,513 21,717 34.7% –17.6% 1.5% 40,753 65.2% 17.5% 3.1%Norton 1,527 741 48.5% –3.8% 0.1% 785 51.4% 3.7% 0.1%Petersburg 10,679 2,423 77.3% 25.0% 0.2% 8,255 77.3% 29.6% 0.6%Poquoson 5,839 3,920 67.1% 14.8% 0.3% 1,909 32.7% –15.0% 0.1%Portsmouth 35,824 12,571 35.1% –17.2% 0.9% 23,208 64.8% 17.1% 1.8%Radford 4,386 2,146 48.9% –3.4% 0.2% 2,240 51.1% 3.4% 0.2%Richmond (City) 65,193 20,211 31.0% –21.3% 1.4% 44,966 69.0% 21.3% 3.5%Roanoke (City) 32,865 14,696 44.7% –7.6% 1.0% 18,165 55.3% 7.6% 1.4%Salem 10,646 6,011 56.5% 4.2% 0.4% 4,631 43.5% –4.2% 0.4%Staunton 8,389 4,642 55.3% 3.0% 0.3% 3,740 44.6% –3.1% 0.3%Suff olk 24,287 11,535 47.5% –4.8% 0.8% 12,744 52.5% 4.8% 1.0%Va. Beach 150,197 80,946 53.9% 1.6% 5.7% 69,132 46.0% –1.7% 5.3%Waynesboro 6,993 4,070 58.2% 5.9% 0.3% 2,920 41.8% –5.9% 0.2%Williamsburg 3,651 1,587 15.9% –36.4% 0.1% 2,064 56.5% 8.8% 0.2%Winchester 7,756 4,265 42.7% –9.6% 0.3% 3,490 45.0% –2.7% 0.3%COUNTIES 1,906,919 1,053,100 55.2% 2.9% 74.1% 852,764 44.7% –3.0% 65.8%

Accomack 11,423 6,027 52.8% 0.5% 0.4% 5,396 47.2% –0.5% 0.4%Albemarle 36,341 17,503 48.2% –4.1% 1.2% 18,807 51.8% 4.1% 1.5%Alleghany 5,152 2,855 55.4% 3.1% 0.2% 2,297 44.6% –3.1% 0.2%Amelia 4,737 3,076 64.9% 12.6% 0.2% 1,661 35.1% –12.6% 0.1%Amherst 11,551 6,661 57.7% 5.4% 0.5% 4,888 42.3% –5.4% 0.4%Appomattox 5,943 3,639 61.2% 8.9% 0.3% 2,304 38.8% –8.9% 0.2%Arlington 82,562 27,871 33.8% –18.5% 2.0% 54,651 66.2% 18.5% 4.2%Augusta 24,910 17,269 69.3% 17.0% 1.2% 7,639 30.7% –17.0% 0.6%Bath 2,153 1,366 63.5% 11.2% 0.1% 787 36.6% –11.1% 0.1%Bedford (Co.) 25,284 16,868 66.7% 14.4% 1.2% 8,415 33.3% –14.4% 0.6%


APPENDIX 3General Election for U.S. Senate, November 7, 2000 (continued )


LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Bland 2,599 1,759 67.7% 15.4% 0.1% 840 32.3% –15.4% 0.1%Botetourt 13,791 8,830 64.0% 11.7% 0.6% 4,960 36.0% –11.7% 0.4%Brunswick 6,178 2,660 43.1% –9.2% 0.2% 3,502 56.7% 9.0% 0.3%Buchanan 9,547 3,928 41.1% –11.2% 0.3% 5,619 58.9% 11.2% 0.4%Buckingham 5,376 2,815 52.4% 0.1% 0.2% 2,560 47.6% –0.1% 0.2%Campbell 19,966 12,897 64.6% 12.3% 0.9% 7,069 35.4% –12.3% 0.5%Caroline 8,221 3,936 47.9% –4.4% 0.3% 4,285 52.1% 4.4% 0.3%Carroll 10,673 6,919 64.8% 12.5% 0.5% 3,754 35.2% –12.5% 0.3%Charles City 3,037 1,054 34.7% –17.6% 0.1% 1,983 65.3% 17.6% 0.2%Charlotte 5,042 2,955 58.6% 6.3% 0.2% 2,087 41.4% –6.3% 0.2%Chesterfi eld 111,310 69,712 62.6% 10.3% 4.9% 41,524 37.3% –10.4% 3.2%Clarke 5,196 2,921 56.2% 3.9% 0.2% 2,275 43.8% –3.9% 0.2%Craig 2,485 1,611 64.8% 12.5% 0.1% 873 35.1% –12.6% 0.1%Culpeper 12,024 7,605 63.3% 11.0% 0.5% 4,416 36.7% –11.0% 0.3%Cumberland 3,486 2,003 57.5% 5.2% 0.1% 1,483 42.5% –5.2% 0.1%Dickenson 7,123 3,308 46.4% –5.9% 0.2% 3,815 53.6% 5.9% 0.3%Dinwiddie 9,038 5,081 56.2% 3.9% 0.4% 3,957 43.8% –3.9% 0.3%Essex 3,778 2,004 53.0% 0.7% 0.1% 1,774 47.0% –0.7% 0.1%Fairfax (Co.) 410,475 196,827 48.0% –4.3% 13.9% 213,311 52.0% 4.3% 16.5%Fauquier 23,402 14,457 61.8% 9.5% 1.0% 8,932 38.2% –9.5% 0.7%Floyd 5,761 3,606 62.6% 10.3% 0.3% 2,154 37.4% –10.3% 0.2%Fluvanna 8,596 4,991 58.1% 5.8% 0.4% 3,605 41.9% –5.8% 0.3%Franklin 18,522 11,568 62.5% 10.2% 0.8% 6,953 37.5% –10.2% 0.5%Frederick 22,088 14,766 66.9% 14.6% 1.0% 7,320 33.1% –14.6% 0.6%Giles 6,717 3,687 54.9% 2.6% 0.3% 3,027 45.1% –2.6% 0.2%Gloucester 13,490 8,216 60.9% 8.6% 0.6% 5,274 39.1% –8.6% 0.4%Goochland 8,732 5,321 60.9% 8.6% 0.4% 3,411 39.1% –8.6% 0.3%Grayson 6,642 4,164 62.7% 10.4% 0.3% 2,478 37.3% –10.4% 0.2%Greene 5,375 3,386 63.0% 10.7% 0.2% 1,989 37.0% –10.7% 0.2%Greensville 3,850 1,606 41.7% –10.6% 0.1% 2,244 58.3% 10.6% 0.2%Halifax 13,777 7,514 54.5% 2.2% 0.5% 6,263 45.5% –2.2% 0.5%Hanover 41,295 28,077 68.0% 15.7% 2.0% 13,209 32.0% –15.7% 1.0%Henrico 114,821 62,143 54.1% 1.8% 4.4% 52,580 45.8% –1.9% 4.1%Henry 20,856 11,895 57.0% 4.7% 0.8% 8,959 43.0% –4.7% 0.7%Highland 1,452 952 65.6% 13.3% 0.1% 499 34.4% –13.3% 0.0%Isle of Wright 13,115 7,318 55.8% 3.5% 0.5% 5,782 44.1% –3.6% 0.4%James City 24,488 13,379 54.6% 2.3% 0.9% 11,088 45.3% –2.4% 0.9%King and Queen 2,832 1,494 52.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1,338 47.3% –0.4% 0.1%King George 5,880 3,473 59.1% 6.8% 0.2% 2,397 40.8% –6.9% 0.2%King William 5,846 3,629 62.1% 9.8% 0.3% 2,211 37.8% –9.9% 0.2%Lancaster 5,482 3,323 60.6% 8.3% 0.2% 2,156 39.3% –8.4% 0.2%Lee 8,329 4,678 56.2% 3.9% 0.3% 3,651 43.8% –3.9% 0.3%Loudon 74,979 43,009 57.4% 5.1% 3.0% 31,862 42.5% –5.2% 2.5%Louisa 10,010 5,688 56.8% 4.5% 0.4% 4,320 43.2% –4.5% 0.3%Lunenberg 4,647 2,552 54.9% 2.6% 0.2% 2,095 45.1% –2.6% 0.2%Madison 4,954 3,010 60.8% 8.5% 0.2% 1,943 39.2% –8.5% 0.1%Mathews 4,582 2,844 62.1% 9.8% 0.2% 1,738 37.9% –9.8% 0.1%Mecklenburg 11,351 6,642 58.5% 6.2% 0.5% 4,709 41.5% –6.2% 0.4%Middlesex 4,618 2,777 60.1% 7.8% 0.2% 1,841 39.9% –7.8% 0.1%Montgomery 26,741 13,774 51.5% –0.8% 1.0% 12,964 48.5% 0.8% 1.0%

(continued )


APPENDIX 3General Election for U.S. Senate, November 7, 2000 (continued )


LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Nelson 6,182 3,110 50.3% –2.0% 0.2% 3,068 49.7% 2.0% 0.2%New Kent 6,171 3,929 63.7% 11.4% 0.3% 2,238 36.3% –11.4% 0.2%Northampton 4,809 2,121 44.1% –8.2% 0.1% 2,688 55.9% 8.2% 0.2%Northumberland 5,651 3,439 60.9% 8.6% 0.2% 2,209 39.1% –8.6% 0.2%Nottoway 5,504 2,912 52.9% 0.6% 0.2% 2,592 47.1% –0.6% 0.2%Orange 10,415 6,052 58.1% 5.8% 0.4% 4,363 41.9% –5.8% 0.3%Page 8,189 5,360 65.5% 13.2% 0.4% 2,821 34.5% –13.2% 0.2%Patrick 6,957 4,597 66.1% 13.8% 0.3% 2,357 33.9% –13.8% 0.2%Pittsylvania 23,436 15,357 65.5% 13.2% 1.1% 8,079 34.5% –13.2% 0.6%Powhatan 9,656 6,767 70.1% 17.8% 0.5% 2,888 29.9% –17.8% 0.2%Prince Edward 6,541 3,236 49.5% –2.8% 0.2% 3,305 50.5% 2.8% 0.3%Prince George 10,988 6,687 60.9% 8.6% 0.5% 4,290 39.0% –8.7% 0.3%Prince William 97,825 52,783 54.0% 1.7% 3.7% 45,023 46.0% –1.7% 3.5%Pulaski 12,703 7,270 57.2% 4.9% 0.5% 5,432 42.8% –4.9% 0.4%Rappahannock 3,515 1,936 55.1% 2.8% 0.1% 1,576 44.8% –2.9% 0.1%Richmond (Co.) 2,854 1,774 62.2% 9.9% 0.1% 1,080 37.8% –9.9% 0.1%Roanoke (Co.) 42,384 25,082 59.2% 6.9% 1.8% 17,292 40.8% –6.9% 1.3%Rockbridge 7,798 4,581 58.8% 6.5% 0.3% 3,217 41.3% –6.4% 0.2%Rockingham 23,959 17,475 72.9% 20.6% 1.2% 6,481 27.1% –20.6% 0.5%Russell 10,665 5,348 50.2% –2.1% 0.4% 5,316 49.9% 2.2% 0.4%Scott 8,994 5,662 63.0% 10.7% 0.4% 3,331 37.0% –10.7% 0.3%Shenandoah 14,525 9,800 67.5% 15.2% 0.7% 4,703 32.4% –15.3% 0.4%Smyth 11,390 6,858 60.2% 7.9% 0.5% 4,532 39.8% –7.9% 0.3%Southampton 6,861 3,285 47.9% –4.4% 0.2% 3,569 52.0% 4.3% 0.3%Spotsylvania 34,862 20,308 58.3% 6.0% 1.4% 14,510 41.6% –6.1% 1.1%Staff ord 34,117 20,163 59.1% 6.8% 1.4% 13,908 40.8% –6.9% 1.1%Surry 3,185 1,322 41.5% –10.8% 0.1% 1,863 58.5% 10.8% 0.1%Sussex 3,999 1,774 44.4% –7.9% 0.1% 2,225 55.6% 7.9% 0.2%Tazewell 15,543 8,602 55.3% 3.0% 0.6% 6,941 44.7% –3.0% 0.5%Warren 10,993 6,645 60.5% 8.2% 0.5% 4,347 39.5% –8.2% 0.3%Washington 19,595 12,315 62.9% 10.6% 0.9% 7,278 37.1% –10.6% 0.6%Westmoreland 6,049 2,970 49.1% –3.2% 0.2% 3,078 50.9% 3.2% 0.2%Wise 12,962 6,770 52.2% –0.1% 0.5% 6,192 47.8% 0.1% 0.5%Wythe 10,394 6,704 64.5% 12.2% 0.5% 3,674 35.4% –12.3% 0.3%York 24,617 14,207 57.7% 5.4% 1.0% 10,374 42.1% –5.6% 0.8%


APPENDIX 4Proposed Constitutional Amendment, November 7, 2000 (Hunting and Fishing)

YES NO

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

STATE 2,418,420 1,448,154 59.9% 970,266 40.1%

CITIES 723,640 420,918 58.2% –1.7% 29.1% 303,532 41.9% 1.8% 31.3%

Alexandria 51,433 21,128 41.1% –18.8% 1.5% 30,305 58.9% 18.8% 3.1%Bedford (City) 1,489 1,015 68.2% 8.3% 0.1% 474 31.8% –8.3% 0.0%Bristol 5,797 4,365 75.3% 15.4% 0.3% 1,432 24.7% –15.4% 0.1%Buena Vista 1,235 1,017 82.3% 22.5% 0.1% 218 17.7% –22.5% 0.0%Charlottesville 12,019 5,001 41.6% –18.3% 0.3% 7,018 58.4% 18.3% 0.7%Chesapeake 67,633 41,710 61.7% 1.8% 2.9% 25,923 38.3% –1.8% 2.7%Clifton Forge 1,165 776 66.6% 6.7% 0.1% 389 33.4% –6.7% 0.0%Colonial Heights 7,425 4,833 65.1% 5.2% 0.3% 2,592 34.9% –5.2% 0.3%Covington 1,748 1,309 74.9% 15.0% 0.1% 439 25.1% –15.0% 0.0%Danville 11,904 8,339 70.1% 10.2% 0.6% 3,565 29.9% –10.2% 0.4%Emporia 1,777 1,375 77.4% 17.5% 0.1% 402 22.6% –17.5% 0.0%Fairfax (City) 8,960 4,469 49.9% –10.0% 0.3% 4,491 50.1% 10.0% 0.5%Falls Church 5,291 1,565 29.6% –30.3% 0.1% 3,726 70.4% 30.3% 0.4%Franklin 2,922 1,962 67.1% 7.3% 0.1% 960 32.9% –7.3% 0.1%Fredericksburg 6,138 3,181 51.8% –8.1% 0.2% 2,957 48.2% 8.1% 0.3%Galax 1,764 1,244 70.5% 10.6% 0.1% 520 29.5% –10.6% 0.1%Hampton 45,075 27,137 60.2% 0.3% 1.9% 17,938 39.8% –0.3% 1.8%Harrisonburg 9,065 5,408 59.7% –0.2% 0.4% 3,657 40.3% 0.2% 0.4%Hopewell 4,261 3,098 72.7% 12.8% 0.2% 1,163 27.3% –12.8% 0.1%Lexington 1,481 796 53.7% –6.1% 0.1% 685 46.3% 6.1% 0.1%Lynchburg 21,884 14,336 65.5% 5.6% 1.0% 7,548 34.5% –5.6% 0.8%Manassas Park 2,100 1,392 66.3% 6.4% 0.1% 708 33.7% –6.4% 0.1%Manassas 9,273 5,726 61.7% 1.9% 0.4% 3,547 38.3% –1.9% 0.4%Martinsville 5,017 3,514 70.0% 10.2% 0.2% 1,503 30.0% –10.2% 0.2%Newport News 54,337 32,850 60.5% 0.6% 2.3% 21,487 39.5% –0.6% 2.2%Norfolk 53,174 30,069 56.5% –3.3% 2.1% 23,105 43.5% 3.3% 2.4%Norton 1,415 1,066 75.3% 15.5% 0.1% 349 24.7% –15.5% 0.0%Petersburg 9,175 4,388 47.8% –12.1% 0.3% 4,787 52.2% 12.1% 0.5%Poquoson 5,633 3,245 57.6% –2.3% 0.2% 2,388 42.4% 2.3% 0.2%Portsmouth 32,578 20,346 62.5% 2.6% 1.4% 12,232 37.5% –2.6% 1.3%Radford 3,092 2,584 83.6% 23.7% 0.2% 1,318 42.6% 2.5% 0.1%Richmond (City) 55,972 26,404 47.2% –12.7% 1.8% 29,568 52.8% 12.7% 3.0%Roanoke (City) 28,408 18,621 65.5% 5.7% 1.3% 9,787 34.5% –5.7% 1.0%Salem 9,509 6,494 68.3% 8.4% 0.4% 3,015 31.7% –8.4% 0.3%Staunton 7,494 4,570 61.0% 1.1% 0.3% 2,924 39.0% –1.1% 0.3%Suff olk 20,757 14,075 67.8% 7.9% 1.0% 6,682 32.2% –7.9% 0.7%Va. Beach 139,217 81,567 58.6% –1.3% 5.6% 57,650 41.4% 1.3% 5.9%Waynesboro 6,290 4,187 66.6% 6.7% 0.3% 2,103 33.4% –6.7% 0.2%Williamsburg 2,834 1,344 47.4% –12.5% 0.1% 1,490 52.6% 12.5% 0.2%Winchester 6,899 4,412 64.0% 4.1% 0.3% 2,487 36.0% –4.1% 0.3%COUNTIES 1,693,811 1,027,236 60.6% 0.8% 70.9% 669,727 39.5% –0.6% 69.0%

Accomack 8,009 6,024 75.2% 15.3% 0.4% 1,985 24.8% –15.3% 0.2%Albemarle 34,212 16,491 48.2% –11.7% 1.1% 17,721 51.8% 11.7% 1.8%Alleghany 4,413 3,428 77.7% 17.8% 0.2% 985 22.3% –17.8% 0.1%Amelia 4,157 3,105 74.7% 14.8% 0.2% 1,052 25.3% –14.8% 0.1%Amherst 9,933 7,135 71.8% 12.0% 0.5% 2,798 28.2% –12.0% 0.3%Appomattox 3,907 2,953 75.6% 15.7% 0.2% 954 24.4% –15.7% 0.1%Arlington 78,200 26,142 33.4% –26.5% 1.8% 52,058 66.6% 26.5% 5.4%Augusta 20,474 15,104 73.8% 13.9% 1.0% 5,370 26.2% –13.9% 0.6%Bath 1,807 1,387 76.8% 16.9% 0.1% 420 23.2% –16.9% 0.0%Bedford (Co.) 21,062 15,367 73.0% 13.1% 1.1% 5,695 27.0% –13.1% 0.6%

(continued )


APPENDIX 4Proposed Constitutional Amendment, November 7, 2000 (Hunting and Fishing) (continued )

YES NO

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Bland 2,049 1,692 82.6% 22.7% 0.1% 357 17.4% –22.7% 0.0%Botetourt 10,662 8,049 75.5% 15.6% 0.6% 2,613 24.5% –15.6% 0.3%Brunswick 5,680 4,513 79.5% 19.6% 0.3% 1,167 20.5% –19.6% 0.1%Buchanan 7,282 6,191 85.0% 25.1% 0.4% 1,091 15.0% –25.1% 0.1%Buckingham 4,366 3,051 69.9% 10.0% 0.2% 1,315 30.1% –10.0% 0.1%Campbell 14,499 10,390 71.7% 11.8% 0.7% 4,109 28.3% –11.8% 0.4%Caroline 7,148 5,137 71.9% 12.0% 0.4% 2,011 28.1% –12.0% 0.2%Carroll 8,838 6,714 76.0% 16.1% 0.5% 2,124 24.0% –16.1% 0.2%Charles City 2,499 1,810 72.4% 12.5% 0.1% 689 27.6% –12.5% 0.1%Charlotte 3,603 2,814 78.1% 18.2% 0.2% 789 21.9% –18.2% 0.1%Chesterfi eld 104,116 62,554 60.1% 0.2% 4.3% 41,562 39.9% –0.2% 4.3%Clarke 4,848 3,283 67.7% 7.8% 0.2% 1,565 32.3% –7.8% 0.2%Craig 2,366 1,885 79.7% 19.8% 0.1% 481 20.3% –19.8% 0.0%Culpeper 8,376 5,727 68.4% 8.5% 0.4% 2,649 31.6% –8.5% 0.3%Cumberland 2,412 1,729 71.7% 11.8% 0.1% 683 28.3% –11.8% 0.1%Dickenson 6,102 5,176 84.8% 24.9% 0.4% 926 15.2% –24.9% 0.1%Dinwiddie 7,436 5,540 74.5% 14.6% 0.4% 1,896 25.5% –14.6% 0.2%Essex 3,212 2,332 72.6% 12.7% 0.2% 880 27.4% –12.7% 0.1%Fairfax (Co.) 390,465 196,877 50.4% –9.5% 13.6% 193,588 49.6% 9.5% 20.0%Fauquier 22,177 14,623 65.9% 6.1% 1.0% 7,544 34.0% –6.1% 0.8%Floyd 4,567 3,398 74.4% 14.5% 0.2% 1,169 25.6% –14.5% 0.1%Fluvanna 7,683 4,617 60.1% 0.2% 0.3% 3,066 39.9% –0.2% 0.3%Franklin 16,939 12,780 75.4% 15.6% 0.9% 4,159 24.6% –15.6% 0.4%Frederick 20,599 14,487 70.3% 10.4% 1.0% 6,112 29.7% –10.4% 0.6%Giles 4,783 3,677 76.9% 17.0% 0.3% 1,106 23.1% –17.0% 0.1%Gloucester 11,098 7,373 66.4% 6.6% 0.5% 3,725 33.6% –6.6% 0.4%Goochland 7,512 4,911 65.4% 5.5% 0.3% 2,601 34.6% –5.5% 0.3%Grayson 5,551 4,190 75.5% 15.6% 0.3% 1,361 24.5% –15.6% 0.1%Greene 4,133 2,746 66.4% 6.6% 0.2% 1,387 33.6% –6.6% 0.1%Greensville 3,389 2,785 82.2% 22.3% 0.2% 584 17.2% –22.9% 0.1%Halifax 7,475 5,492 73.5% 13.6% 0.4% 1,983 26.5% –13.6% 0.2%Hanover 38,313 24,431 63.8% 3.9% 1.7% 13,882 36.2% –3.9% 1.4%Henrico 103,741 57,803 55.7% –4.2% 4.0% 45,938 44.3% 4.2% 4.7%Henry 13,533 10,243 75.7% 15.8% 0.7% 3,290 24.3% –15.8% 0.3%Highland 1,377 1,082 78.6% 18.7% 0.1% 295 21.4% –18.7% 0.0%Isle of Wright 12,283 8,334 67.8% 8.0% 0.6% 3,949 32.2% –8.0% 0.4%James City 23,469 11,677 49.8% –10.1% 0.8% 11,792 50.2% 10.1% 1.2%King and Queen 2,442 1,795 73.5% 13.6% 0.1% 647 26.5% –13.6% 0.1%King George 5,669 3,916 69.1% 9.2% 0.3% 1,753 30.9% –9.2% 0.2%King William 5,580 3,746 67.1% 7.3% 0.3% 1,834 32.9% –7.3% 0.2%Lancaster 4,909 2,978 60.7% 0.8% 0.2% 1,931 39.3% –0.8% 0.2%Lee 6,919 5,588 80.8% 20.9% 0.4% 1,331 19.2% –20.9% 0.1%Loudon 72,851 36,212 49.7% –10.2% 2.5% 36,639 50.3% 10.2% 3.8%Louisa 8,995 6,306 70.1% 10.2% 0.4% 2,689 29.9% –10.2% 0.3%Lunenberg 4,242 3,170 74.7% 14.8% 0.2% 1,072 25.3% –14.8% 0.1%Madison 4,122 2,830 68.7% 8.8% 0.2% 1,292 31.3% –8.8% 0.1%Mathews 4,036 2,370 58.7% –1.2% 0.2% 1,666 41.3% 1.2% 0.2%Mecklenburg 7,960 5,825 73.2% 13.3% 0.4% 2,135 26.8% –13.3% 0.2%Middlesex 3,864 2,495 64.6% 4.7% 0.2% 1,369 35.4% –4.7% 0.1%Montgomery 25,200 16,511 65.5% 5.6% 1.1% 8,689 34.5% –5.6% 0.9%


APPENDIX 4Proposed Constitutional Amendment, November 7, 2000 (Hunting and Fishing) (continued )

YES NO

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Nelson 5,805 3,600 62.0% 2.1% 0.2% 2,205 38.0% –2.1% 0.2%New Kent 5,816 3,958 68.1% 8.2% 0.3% 1,858 31.9% –8.2% 0.2%Northampton 3,542 2,618 73.9% 14.0% 0.2% 924 26.1% –14.0% 0.1%Northumberland 5,384 3,493 64.9% 5.0% 0.2% 1,891 35.1% –5.0% 0.2%Nottoway 3,628 2,776 76.5% 16.6% 0.2% 852 23.5% –16.6% 0.1%Orange 8,741 5,625 64.4% 4.5% 0.4% 3,116 35.6% –4.5% 0.3%Page 7,494 5,271 70.3% 10.5% 0.4% 2,223 29.7% –10.5% 0.2%Patrick 5,069 3,796 74.9% 15.0% 0.3% 1,273 25.1% –15.0% 0.1%Pittsylvania 17,102 12,723 74.4% 14.5% 0.9% 4,379 25.6% –14.5% 0.5%Powhatan 8,829 6,173 69.9% 10.0% 0.4% 5,656 64.1% 23.9% 0.6%Prince Edward 4,018 2,600 64.7% 4.8% 0.2% 1,418 35.3% –4.8% 0.1%Prince George 10,371 7,248 69.9% 10.0% 0.5% 3,123 30.1% –10.0% 0.3%Prince William 77,940 47,756 61.3% 1.4% 3.3% 30,184 38.7% –1.4% 3.1%Pulaski 10,237 7,863 76.8% 16.9% 0.5% 2,374 23.2% –16.9% 0.2%Rappahannock 3,333 2,045 61.4% 1.5% 0.1% 1,288 38.6% –1.5% 0.1%Richmond (Co.) 2,463 1,773 72.0% 12.1% 0.1% 690 28.0% –12.1% 0.1%Roanoke (Co.) 39,075 26,535 67.9% 8.0% 1.8% 12,540 32.1% –8.0% 1.3%Rockbridge 6,131 4,490 73.2% 13.4% 0.3% 1,641 26.8% –13.4% 0.2%Rockingham 22,712 16,937 74.6% 14.7% 1.2% 5,775 25.4% –14.7% 0.6%Russell 7,055 5,813 82.4% 22.5% 0.4% 1,242 17.6% –22.5% 0.1%Scott 6,819 5,719 83.9% 24.0% 0.4% 1,100 16.1% –24.0% 0.1%Shenandoah 13,193 9,677 73.3% 13.5% 0.7% 3,516 26.7% –13.5% 0.4%Smyth 8,641 6,640 76.8% 17.0% 0.5% 2,001 23.2% –17.0% 0.2%Southampton 6,257 4,719 75.4% 15.5% 0.3% 1,538 24.6% –15.5% 0.2%Spotsylvania 33,243 21,643 65.1% 5.2% 1.5% 11,600 34.9% –5.2% 1.2%Staff ord 32,927 20,573 62.5% 2.6% 1.4% 12,354 37.5% –2.6% 1.3%Surry 2,549 1,862 73.0% 13.2% 0.1% 687 27.0% –13.2% 0.1%Sussex 2,101 1,618 77.0% 17.1% 0.1% 483 23.0% –17.1% 0.0%Tazewell 13,432 10,564 78.6% 18.8% 0.7% 2,868 21.4% –18.8% 0.3%Warren 9,242 6,685 72.3% 12.5% 0.5% 2,739 29.6% –10.5% 0.3%Washington 16,192 11,962 73.9% 14.0% 0.8% 4,230 26.1% –14.0% 0.4%Westmoreland 3,800 2,632 69.3% 9.4% 0.2% 1,168 30.7% –9.4% 0.1%Wise 9,611 7,736 80.5% 20.6% 0.5% 1,875 19.5% –20.6% 0.2%Wythe 9,871 7,466 75.6% 15.8% 0.5% 2,405 24.4% –15.8% 0.2%York 23,644 13,656 57.8% –2.1% 0.9% 9,988 42.2% 2.1% 1.0%


APPENDIX 5Proposed Constitutional Amendment, November 7, 2000 (Lottery Proceeds Fund)

YES NO

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

STATE 2,475,836 2,067,186 83.5% 408,650 16.5%

CITIES 751,777 640,079 85.1% 1.6% 31.0% 111,698 14.9% –1.6% 27.3%

Alexandria 52,451 38,744 73.9% –9.6% 1.9% 13,707 26.1% 9.6% 3.4%Bedford (City) 1,529 1,308 85.5% 2.1% 0.1% 221 14.5% –2.1% 0.1%Bristol 5,946 5,438 91.5% 8.0% 0.3% 508 8.5% –8.0% 0.1%Buena Vista 1,242 999 80.4% –3.1% 0.0% 243 19.6% 3.1% 0.1%Charlottesville 12,486 9,527 76.3% –7.2% 0.5% 2,959 23.7% 7.2% 0.7%Chesapeake 71,372 62,621 87.7% 4.2% 3.0% 8,751 12.3% –4.2% 2.1%Clifton Forge 1,183 1,078 91.1% 7.6% 0.1% 105 8.9% –7.6% 0.0%Colonial Heights 7,525 6,348 84.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1,177 15.6% –0.9% 0.3%Covington 1,752 1,569 89.6% 6.1% 0.1% 183 10.4% –6.1% 0.0%Danville 12,612 11,394 90.3% 6.8% 0.6% 1,218 9.7% –6.8% 0.3%Emporia 1,795 1,555 86.6% 3.1% 0.1% 240 13.4% –3.1% 0.1%Fairfax (City) 9,073 6,659 73.4% –10.1% 0.3% 2,414 26.6% 10.1% 0.6%Falls Church 5,316 3,735 70.3% –13.2% 0.2% 1,581 29.7% 13.2% 0.4%Franklin 2,983 2,648 88.8% 5.3% 0.1% 335 11.2% –5.3% 0.1%Fredericksburg 6,261 4,852 77.5% –6.0% 0.2% 1,409 22.5% 6.0% 0.3%Galax 1,882 1,687 89.6% 6.1% 0.1% 195 10.4% –6.1% 0.0%Hampton 46,082 40,090 87.0% 3.5% 1.9% 5,992 13.0% –3.5% 1.5%Harrisonburg 9,285 7,885 84.9% 1.4% 0.4% 1,400 15.1% –1.4% 0.3%Hopewell 4,324 3,653 84.5% 1.0% 0.2% 671 15.5% –1.0% 0.2%Lexington 1,510 1,229 81.4% –2.1% 0.1% 281 18.6% 2.1% 0.1%Lynchburg 22,715 19,796 87.1% 3.7% 1.0% 2,919 12.9% –3.7% 0.7%Manassas Park 2,130 1,759 82.6% –0.9% 0.1% 371 17.4% 0.9% 0.1%Manassas 9,606 7,814 81.3% –2.1% 0.4% 1,792 18.7% 2.1% 0.4%Martinsville 5,186 4,683 90.3% 6.8% 0.2% 503 9.7% –6.8% 0.1%Newport News 55,334 47,784 86.4% 2.9% 2.3% 7,550 13.6% –2.9% 1.8%Norfolk 58,002 50,637 87.3% 3.8% 2.4% 7,365 12.7% –3.8% 1.8%Norton 1,458 1,378 94.5% 11.0% 0.1% 80 5.5% –11.0% 0.0%Petersburg 9,689 8,639 89.2% 5.7% 0.4% 1,050 10.8% –5.7% 0.3%Poquoson 5,692 4,615 81.1% –2.4% 0.2% 1,077 18.9% 2.4% 0.3%Portsmouth 33,429 29,907 89.5% 6.0% 1.4% 3,522 10.5% –6.0% 0.9%Radford 4,062 3,622 89.2% 5.7% 0.2% 440 10.8% –5.7% 0.1%Richmond (City) 56,036 45,546 81.3% –2.2% 2.2% 10,490 18.7% 2.2% 2.6%Roanoke (City) 29,878 25,942 86.8% 3.3% 1.3% 3,936 13.2% –3.3% 1.0%Salem 9,834 8,615 87.6% 4.1% 0.4% 1,219 12.4% –4.1% 0.3%Staunton 7,612 6,555 86.1% 2.6% 0.3% 1,057 13.9% –2.6% 0.3%Suff olk 21,514 18,838 87.6% 4.1% 0.9% 2,676 12.4% –4.1% 0.7%Va. Beach 146,468 127,210 86.9% 3.4% 6.2% 19,258 13.1% –3.4% 4.7%Waynesboro 6,409 5,529 86.3% 2.8% 0.3% 880 13.7% –2.8% 0.2%Williamsburg 2,906 2,314 79.6% –3.9% 0.1% 592 20.4% 3.9% 0.1%Winchester 7,208 5,877 81.5% –2.0% 0.3% 1,331 18.5% 2.0% 0.3%COUNTIES 1,723,429 1,421,107 82.5% –1.0% 68.7% 296,952 17.2% 0.7% 72.7%

Accomack 8,137 7,094 87.2% 3.7% 0.3% 1,043 12.8% –3.7% 0.3%Albemarle 34,685 27,449 79.1% –4.4% 1.3% 7,236 20.9% 4.4% 1.8%Alleghany 4,409 3,957 89.7% 6.3% 0.2% 452 10.3% –6.3% 0.1%Amelia 4,153 3,502 84.3% 0.8% 0.2% 651 15.7% –0.8% 0.2%Amherst 10,433 9,112 87.3% 3.8% 0.4% 1,321 12.7% –3.8% 0.3%Appomattox 3,920 3,477 88.7% 5.2% 0.2% 443 11.3% –5.2% 0.1%Arlington 78,564 60,921 77.5% –6.0% 2.9% 17,643 22.5% 6.0% 4.3%Augusta 20,302 17,728 87.3% 3.8% 0.9% 2,574 12.7% –3.8% 0.6%Bath 1,815 1,628 89.7% 6.2% 0.1% 187 10.3% –6.2% 0.0%Bedford (Co.) 21,253 18,618 87.6% 4.1% 0.9% 2,635 12.4% –4.1% 0.6%


APPENDIX 5Proposed Constitutional Amendment, November 7, 2000 (Lottery Proceeds Fund) (continued )

YES NO

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Bland 2,044 1,848 90.4% 6.9% 0.1% 196 9.6% –6.9% 0.0%Botetourt 10,675 9,297 87.1% 3.6% 0.4% 1,378 12.9% –3.6% 0.3%Brunswick 5,605 4,977 88.8% 5.3% 0.2% 628 11.2% –5.3% 0.2%Buchanan 7,151 6,657 93.1% 9.6% 0.3% 494 6.9% –9.6% 0.1%Buckingham 4,632 3,992 86.2% 2.7% 0.2% 640 13.8% –2.7% 0.2%Campbell 14,690 12,839 87.4% 3.9% 0.6% 1,851 12.6% –3.9% 0.5%Caroline 7,212 6,250 86.7% 3.2% 0.3% 962 13.3% –3.2% 0.2%Carroll 9,334 8,383 89.8% 6.3% 0.4% 951 10.2% –6.3% 0.2%Charles City 2,521 2,167 86.0% 2.5% 0.1% 354 14.0% –2.5% 0.1%Charlotte 3,622 3,097 85.5% 2.0% 0.1% 525 14.5% –2.0% 0.1%Chesterfi eld 108,018 90,845 84.1% 0.6% 4.4% 17,173 15.9% –0.6% 4.2%Clarke 4,296 3,976 92.6% 9.1% 0.2% 950 22.1% 5.6% 0.2%Craig 2,380 2,111 88.7% 5.2% 0.1% 269 11.3% –5.2% 0.1%Culpeper 8,539 6,981 81.8% –1.7% 0.3% 1,558 18.2% 1.7% 0.4%Cumberland 2,371 1,948 82.2% –1.3% 0.1% 423 17.8% 1.3% 0.1%Dickenson 6,000 5,531 92.2% 8.7% 0.3% 469 7.8% –8.7% 0.1%Dinwiddie 7,811 6,863 87.9% 4.4% 0.3% 948 12.1% –4.4% 0.2%Essex 3,293 2,831 86.0% 2.5% 0.1% 462 14.0% –2.5% 0.1%Fairfax (Co.) 395,836 308,972 78.1% –5.4% 14.9% 86,864 21.9% 5.4% 21.3%Fauquier 22,454 18,302 81.5% –2.0% 0.9% 4,152 18.5% 2.0% 1.0%Floyd 4,529 3,894 86.0% 2.5% 0.2% 635 14.0% –2.5% 0.2%Fluvanna 7,997 6,584 82.3% –1.2% 0.3% 1,413 17.7% 1.2% 0.3%Franklin 17,058 15,035 88.1% 4.6% 0.7% 2,023 11.9% –4.6% 0.5%Frederick 20,860 17,256 82.7% –0.8% 0.8% 3,604 17.3% 0.8% 0.9%Giles 4,723 4,162 88.1% 4.6% 0.2% 561 11.9% –4.6% 0.1%Gloucester 11,196 9,491 84.8% 1.3% 0.5% 1,705 15.2% –1.3% 0.4%Goochland 7,762 6,450 83.1% –0.4% 0.3% 1,312 16.9% 0.4% 0.3%Grayson 5,681 5,118 90.1% 6.6% 0.2% 563 9.9% –6.6% 0.1%Greene 4,114 3,487 84.8% 1.3% 0.2% 627 15.2% –1.3% 0.2%Greensville 3,391 3,090 91.1% 7.6% 0.1% 301 8.9% –7.6% 0.1%Halifax 7,912 7,007 88.6% 5.1% 0.3% 905 11.4% –5.1% 0.2%Hanover 38,931 32,390 83.2% –0.3% 1.6% 6,541 16.8% 0.3% 1.6%Henrico 110,368 91,674 83.1% –0.4% 4.4% 18,694 16.9% 0.4% 4.6%Henry 13,639 12,396 90.9% 7.4% 0.6% 1,243 9.1% –7.4% 0.3%Highland 1,413 1,257 89.0% 5.5% 0.1% 156 11.0% –5.5% 0.0%Isle of Wright 12,361 10,766 87.1% 3.6% 0.5% 1,595 12.9% –3.6% 0.4%James City 23,906 19,216 80.4% –3.1% 0.9% 4,690 19.6% 3.1% 1.1%King and Queen 2,445 2,139 87.5% 4.0% 0.1% 306 12.5% –4.0% 0.1%King George 5,700 4,760 83.5% 0.0% 0.2% 940 16.5% –0.0% 0.2%King William 5,580 4,871 87.3% 3.8% 0.2% 709 12.7% –3.8% 0.2%Lancaster 5,045 4,123 81.7% –1.8% 0.2% 922 18.3% 1.8% 0.2%Lee 7,205 6,389 88.7% 5.2% 0.3% 816 11.3% –5.2% 0.2%Loudon 73,881 54,964 74.4% –9.1% 2.7% 18,917 25.6% 9.1% 4.6%Louisa 9,029 7,628 84.5% 1.0% 0.4% 1,401 15.5% –1.0% 0.3%Lunenberg 4,236 3,784 89.3% 5.8% 0.2% 452 10.7% –5.8% 0.1%Madison 4,091 3,450 84.3% 0.8% 0.2% 641 15.7% –0.8% 0.2%Mathews 4,068 3,186 78.3% –5.2% 0.2% 882 21.7% 5.2% 0.2%Mecklenburg 8,064 7,046 87.4% 3.9% 0.3% 1,018 12.6% –3.9% 0.2%Middlesex 3,880 3,165 81.6% –1.9% 0.2% 715 18.4% 1.9% 0.2%Montgomery 25,585 22,344 87.3% 3.8% 1.1% 3,241 12.7% –3.8% 0.8%

(continued )


APPENDIX 5Proposed Constitutional Amendment, November 7, 2000 (Lottery Proceeds Fund) (continued )

YES NO

LOCALITY Total Vote

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

from Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Number

of Votes

Percent

of Vote

Deviation

From Choice’s

State Average

Percent of

Choice’s

State Total

Nelson 5,882 5,035 85.6% 2.1% 0.2% 847 14.4% –2.1% 0.2%New Kent 5,971 5,143 86.1% 2.6% 0.2% 828 13.9% –2.6% 0.2%Northampton 3,727 3,295 88.4% 4.9% 0.2% 432 11.6% –4.9% 0.1%Northumberland 5,445 4,596 84.4% 0.9% 0.2% 849 15.6% –0.9% 0.2%Nottoway 3,619 3,202 88.5% 5.0% 0.2% 417 11.5% –5.0% 0.1%Orange 8,831 7,309 82.8% –0.7% 0.4% 1,522 17.2% 0.7% 0.4%Page 7,545 6,668 88.4% 4.9% 0.3% 877 11.6% –4.9% 0.2%Patrick 5,048 4,496 89.1% 5.6% 0.2% 552 10.9% –5.6% 0.1%Pittsylvania 17,364 15,510 89.3% 5.8% 0.8% 1,854 10.7% –5.8% 0.5%Powhatan 8,853 7,560 85.4% 1.9% 0.4% 1,293 14.6% –1.9% 0.3%Prince Edward 4,185 3,549 84.8% 1.3% 0.2% 636 15.2% –1.3% 0.2%Prince George 10,436 9,183 88.0% 4.5% 0.4% 1,253 12.0% –4.5% 0.3%Prince William 79,704 64,232 80.6% –2.9% 3.1% 15,472 19.4% 2.9% 3.8%Pulaski 10,212 9,175 89.8% 6.4% 0.4% 1,037 10.2% –6.4% 0.3%Rappahannock 3,373 2,825 83.8% 0.3% 0.1% 548 16.2% –0.3% 0.1%Richmond (Co.) 2,531 2,169 85.7% 2.2% 0.1% 362 14.3% –2.2% 0.1%Roanoke (Co.) 40,042 35,195 87.9% 4.4% 1.7% 4,847 12.1% –4.4% 1.2%Rockbridge 6,043 5,300 87.7% 4.2% 0.3% 743 12.3% –4.2% 0.2%Rockingham 22,626 19,698 87.1% 3.6% 1.0% 2,928 12.9% –3.6% 0.7%Russell 6,998 6,342 90.6% 7.1% 0.3% 656 9.4% –7.1% 0.2%Scott 6,837 6,309 92.3% 8.8% 0.3% 528 7.7% –8.8% 0.1%Shenandoah 13,773 11,827 85.9% 2.4% 0.6% 1,946 14.1% –2.4% 0.5%Smyth 8,730 7,885 90.3% 6.8% 0.4% 845 9.7% –6.8% 0.2%Southampton 6,352 5,654 89.0% 5.5% 0.3% 698 11.0% –5.5% 0.2%Spotsylvania 33,603 28,286 84.2% 0.7% 1.4% 5,317 15.8% –0.7% 1.3%Staff ord 33,388 28,096 84.1% 0.7% 1.4% 5,292 15.9% –0.7% 1.3%Surry 2,642 2,256 85.4% 1.9% 0.1% 386 14.6% –1.9% 0.1%Sussex 2,103 1,791 85.2% 1.7% 0.1% 312 14.8% –1.7% 0.1%Tazewell 13,323 11,674 87.6% 4.1% 0.6% 1,649 12.4% –4.1% 0.4%Warren 9,478 1,879 19.8% –63.7% 0.1% 1,599 16.9% 0.4% 0.4%Washington 16,366 14,703 89.8% 6.3% 0.7% 1,663 10.2% –6.3% 0.4%Westmoreland 3,857 3,198 82.9% –0.6% 0.2% 659 17.1% 0.6% 0.2%Wise 9,772 9,089 93.0% 9.5% 0.4% 683 7.0% –9.5% 0.2%Wythe 9,926 9,056 91.2% 7.7% 0.4% 870 8.8% –7.7% 0.2%York 24,039 20,447 85.1% 1.6% 1.0% 3,592 14.9% –1.6% 0.9%

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