31
Jose Orlando Azevedo PETROBRAS AMERICA PRESIDENT May, 2009
Jose Orlando AzevedoPETROBRAS AMERICA PRESIDENT
May, 2009
Disclosure & Important NoticeDisclosure & Important Notice
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Suchforecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company.Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
2
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SCENARIOS
Medium/Long-term Oil Market Outlook Remains Very Strong
Medium/Long-term Oil Market Outlook Remains Very Strong
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007, EIA International Energy Outlook 2007
Production in most non-OPEC countries is at a plateau or in decline;Global oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth;Lower demand and capital spending during current down-cycle will postpone the crunch, but not eliminate it.
Existing production0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Natural decline
Observed decline
Existing productionNatural decline
Actual declineExisting production
mm b/d
Global demand scenarios
EIA/DOE High Demand Scenario
IEA Reference Scenario
EIA/DOE Low Demand Scenario
2030 | 75 – 90 mm2020 | 55 – 65 mm
Additional RequiredCapacity (b/d)
3
2007 Total Oil Consumption by Country (mmboed)
Dominant Position in a Large and Growing Emerging Market
Dominant Position in a Large and Growing Emerging Market
Source: BP Statistical Review 2008, PFC Energy
Total Oil Consumption (index)
Brazil is world’s ninth largest oil consumer
Brazil oil consumption growing at 2.4% p.a.
OECD oil consumption growing at 1% p.a. 100
110
120
130
140
150
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Brazil OECD World
2.4
1.61.71.71.92.02.22.22.32.42.72.7
5.1
0
2
4
6
8
US
China
Japa
n
India
Russia
Germ
any
S. Korea
Canada
Brazil
Saud
i
Mexico
Fran
ce
Italy UK
Iran
20.77.9
4
Significant light oil and gas discoveries have been made in the Espirito Santo Basin
82% of our total crude production currently comes from Campos Basin
RoncadorMarlimAlbacoraIaraJupiterTupiCarioca
ThunderHorse
AgbamiAkpo
Kizomba
Girassol, Jaz, Rosa
Dalia
Khurais
Kashagan
KurmangaziShah
Deniz Azadegan
Anaran
Sakhalin II
Sakhalin I
High-potential Portfolio in One of the World’s Most Exciting Provinces
High-potential Portfolio in One of the World’s Most Exciting Provinces
Development of the Santos Basin sub-salt play will drive our long-term production growth
Circle size indicates estimated reserves
5
Competitive Advantage in the DeepwaterCompetitive Advantage in the Deepwater
6
2008 Gross Global Operated Deepwater Production (mboe/d)
Source: PFC Energy | Note: Estimated volumes above reflect what operators are responsible for producing, not what they keep on a net working interest or entitlement basis. Minimum water depth is 300 meters; twelve operators above account for 94% of global deepwater production in 2008.
Petrobras operates 22% of global deepwater production
PBR22%
XOM14%
RDS14%
STL14%
BP9%
TOT8%
CVX6%
APC5%
BG4%
MUR2%
REL1%
HES1%
Petrobras as a Leader Operator of Floating Production Systems
Petrobras as a Leader Operator of Floating Production Systems
Copyright © 2008 ODS-Petrodata, Inc.
FPS OperatorsAll Contracted Vessels (252 Vessels Total)
8
45
5
8
10
12
13
15
15
100
9
12
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Petrobras
Shell
StatoilHydro
ExxonMobil
BP
Chevron
Anadarko
Total
CNOOC
ConocoPhillips
ENI/Agip
Others
FPSO Semi Spar TLP Other
7
Petrobras Production Water Depth RecordsPetrobras Production Water Depth Records
8,2508,2508
DisconnectableBuoy
Deepest installation of an FPU in the world (8,250 ft)First FPSO in the USHighest Reservoir Pressure (20kpsi) ever produced
US Gulf of Mexico – Cascade and Chinook ProjectUS Gulf of Mexico – Cascade and Chinook Project
9
Petrobras Total Production (M boed)
Pursuing New Projects While Maximizing Production from Existing Assets
Pursuing New Projects While Maximizing Production from Existing Assets
8.8% p.y.2,4002,3082,3052,2232,0272,042
1,8121,637
5.6% p.y.
5,729
3,655
2,757
7.5% p.y.
1,335 1,500 1,540 1,493 1,684 1,778 1,792 1,855 2,0502,680
3,920
232252 251 265
274 277 273 321463
634
1,177
161 168163 142 126 124
142
210
409
131
223
3544
10310010910196
94852324
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2020
Oil production ‐ Brazil Ga s production ‐ Bra zil Oil Produc t ‐ International Ga s P roduct ‐ Inte rna tiona l
10
11
Pre Salt ProvincePre Salt Province
Total area of the Province: 112,000 km2Area under concession: 41,000 km2 (38%)
Santos
Whale’s Park
Area not under concession: 71,000 km2 (62%)Area with Petrobras interest: 35,000 km2 (31%)
Tested WellsHC FieldsExploratory BlocksPre-Salt Reservoirs
Santos Basin
Campo
s Bas
in
Santos Basin Pre-saltSantos Basin Pre-salt
Wells Drilled
Evaluation Plans approved by ANP
Evaluation Plans being prepared
Parati – 1-RJS-617Tupi – 1-RJS-628Carioca – 1-SPS-50Caramba – 1-SPS-51Guará – 1-SPS-55Bem-Te-Vi – 1-SPS-52Iara – 1-RJS-656
Júpiter – 1-RJS-652
Blocks Consortium
BMS-8BMS-9BMS-10BMS-11BMS-21BMS-22BMS-24BMS-50
BR (66%), SH (20%) e PTG (14%)BR (45%), BG (30%) e RPS (25%)BR (65%), BG (25%) e PAX (10%)BR (65%), BG (25%) e PTG (10%)BR (80%), PTG (20%)EXX (40%), HES (40%) e BR (20%)BR (80%), PTG (20%)BR (60%), BG (20%) e RPS (20%)
BM-S-21Car amba
BM-S-24Jupiter
BM-S-8Bem-te-Vi
BM-S-9Car ioca
BM-S-11Tupi
BM-S-17
BM-S-42
BM-S-10Par ati
BM-S-42
Iar a
12
Pre-salt Cluster:15.000 km2Tupi: 5 to 8 bi boeIara: 3 to 4 bi boe
Espírito Santo Pre-saltEspírito Santo Pre-salt
MG
RJ
Espí
rito
Sant
o
Peroá
Camarupim
Carapó
Canapu
JUB
Catuá
Baleia Azul AB A
OST
ARG
PRBCXR
CHT
N AU
Golfinho
UTG Cacimbas
UTG Sul Capixaba
UPGN Lagoa PardaCangoá
Baleia Franca
Terminal Barra do Riacho
Rio DoceLinhares
Aracruz
Marataizes
Anchieta
Guarapari
Vila Velha
VITÓRI A
Presidente Kennedy
Sul-Norte CapixabaGas pipeline
12 a 24” –160 km7 a 15 MM m3/d
24” – 66 km25 MM m3/d
Sul CapixabaGas pipeline12” – 83 km4,5 MM m3/d
13
Infrastructure in-place
P-34 at Jubarte field, first pre-salt production: excellent results, prod. up to 18 k b/d
FPSO Seillean started in dec/08 as pilot system of Cachalote (CHT) field
FPSO Capixaba will move from Golfinhofield to Cachalote/Baleia Franca (BFR) in 1H10
FPSO Pipa II will start in 2H10 as BaleiaAzul (BAZ) pilot system
Baleia Azul first definitive production unit by 4Q12
Natural gas production transported via pipeline
8731,183
160
463
632
157 422
62
2013 2015 2017 2020
Pre‐Salt Petrobras Pre‐salt Partners
Pre-salt Oil ProductionPre-salt Oil Production
Petrobras Pre-salt Oil Production (m bpd)
2009 -20202009-2013
98.8 18.6 Santos Basin Pre-salt
111.4 28.9 Petrobras Total Pre-salt Capex (Production Development)
12.610.3Espírito Santo Pre-salt (includes post-salt fields)
Petrobras Pre-salt Capex Through 2020
219
1,336
1,815
582
14
Record of Accelerating Development Record of Accelerating Development
15
Prod
uctio
n(b
/d)
Discovery of giant fields in Campos Basininc. Albacora/Marlim
Discovery of the Pre-salt, including Parati (2006)
Number of years
Production since founding of Petrobras (1954)
12 y
ears
22 y
ears
16 y
ears
27 y
ears
45 y
ears
54 y
ears
Discovery of Garoupa in theCampos Basin (1974)
Petrobras’ Strong Portfolio Beyond Pre-saltPetrobras’ Strong Portfolio Beyond Pre-salt
BR (100%)4-BRSA-446-ESSBC-60/CaxaréuMar-2007
BR (65%), EL PASO (35%)6-BRSA-486-ESSBM-ES-5/CamarupimMay-2007
BR (65%), EL PASO (35%)4-ESS-177/6SS168BM-ES-5/CamarupimDec-2007
BR (100%)1-BRSA-607-SPSBM-S-40/TiroMay-2008
BR (100%)4-GLF-23-ESSGolfinhoJul-2008
BR (100%)1-BRSA-658-SPSBM-S-40/SidonSep-2008
BR (60%), STATOIL (40%)1-BRSA-669-BASBM-J-3JequitinhonhaNov-2008
ConsortiumWellBlock/FieldDate
* 2007 to 2009
Main discoveries in the Post-salt region*
Main Challenges for the Oil Industry in BrazilMain Challenges for the Oil Industry in Brazil
Brasfels Shipyard in Angra dos Reis. P‐51 and P‐56 construction.
Rio Grande Shipyard under construction. Prepared for platform construction.
Infra‐structure Improvement including Dry Docks
Critical Equipment Supply
Drilling Equipment
Dynamic Positioning and Propulsion Systems
Processing and Supply of Steel
Qualified workforce for construction and operation
Financiability
Costs Optimization
CHALLENGES
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Optimizing CostsOptimizing Costs
Planning
Contract Strategy
Culture
• More details less risk• Design Simplicity• Design Standardization (i.e. 8 identical
Pre-salt FPSOs)• Equipment specification based on
industry-standards
• Large number of contracts (packages or modules) to increase competitiveness
• Reducing redundanciesO
ptim
izin
g Co
sts Planning
Contracting
Culture
18
40 drilling units until 2017 to produce in deep and ultradeep waters
- 12 first via international bidding, delivered up to 2012 – Meeting Petrobras’ short-term need, while the domestic industry develops to attend the remaining units
- 28 built in Brazil and operated by Brazilian companies, delivered between 2013 and 2017
Opportunities for New Players Opportunities for New Players
19
322Others (Jack-ups and TLWP)153
159244
2009 to 2013
New Vessels Delivery Plan
65
8505
2013 to 2015
78
22530
2016 to 2020
Total
Production Platforms (2)
Supply and Special VesselLarge Vessels (1)
Critical Resources
(1) Promef 1 and Promef 2(2) FPSO and SS
Supply Vessel Large Vessel (VLCC) Production Platform (FPSO)
Drilling Rigs
20
1.700unOnshore well head1.700unDry Christmas Tree2.200kmUmbilical
42.000tProducing pipes30unManifolds
4.000kmFlexible Lines500unWell Head500unWet Christmas Tree
TOTALUn.Items
500unPower Generators
30unFlares300unFilters
TOTALUn. Items
940.000tStructure Steel (Hull)350unTurbines
1.000unEngines200unCrane450unWinch700unCompressors
8.000unPumpsTOTALUn. Items
550unTurrets1.800unStorage Tankers
50unOil and water splitter280unReactors
TOTALUn. Items
Opportunities for New Players Opportunities for New Players
Total Investments: US$ 3.7 billion between 2009-2013;
Main Projects:Storage extension in Santos and Paranaguá ports;
Increase in effluents treatment in São Sebastião (TEBAR), São Fransisco do Sul (TEFRAN), Cabiúnas, Ilha Grande (TEBIG) and TEDUT Terminals;
Implantation of the Program “Adequação de Suprimento de Petróleo” (PASP) and the Plano Diretorde Dutos, in São Paulo State, through interventions in the OSVAT and OSCAN Systems, and new pier for the São Sebastião Terminal;
Improvements in the oil product outflow system in Santos and Paranaguá ports and Madre de Deus Terminal(TEMADRE).
INVESTMENTS IN LOGISTICS – PIPELINES AND TERMINALS
Opportunities for New PlayersOpportunities for New Players
26 offshore terminals, operated by means of monobuoys or spread mooring
20 land terminals.
Petrobras’ Terminals
Vertically Integrated System to Capture Synergies within the Value Chain
Vertically Integrated System to Capture Synergies within the Value Chain
PetrobrasOther Companies
Upstream Operations Downstream Operations
Existing PipelinesRefineriesWaterway Terminal In Land Terminal
22
As Petrobras continues to grow its upstream business, the need for a compatible refining infrastructure becomes more critical
Petrobras will increase capacity to meet the needs of a growing domestic market
Mil
b/d
208 214 230 257326 332 367 419250 218 255 24684 89 118 179738 783
9011224119 107
112
150
182 202274
4002.301 2.400
3.655
5.729
1.7921.855
2.680
3.920
2007 2008E 2013E 2020E
Others
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Jet Fuel
Naphtha
Gasoline
LPG
Oil Production in Brazil
Oil and Gas Production inBrazil and Abroadoduçãode óleo e gás Brasil eInternacional
1.906 1.945
2.257
2.876
7,5% a.a.
Production Increase Followed by Increase in Domestic Oil Products Market
Production Increase Followed by Increase in Production Increase Followed by Increase in Domestic Oil Products MarketDomestic Oil Products Market
REPLANRevamp33 M bpd
2010
RNE230 M bpd
2011
REPARRevamp
25 M bpd2011
UPB150 M bpd
Dec/2012
Premium I(600 M bpd) e
Premium II (300 M bpd)
1st Phase: 20132nd Phase: 2015
Clara CamarãoRefinery2010
23
1st investment cycle (until 2010) – Diversifying Supply and Integrating the network
+ 307 km of gas pipelines+ new compression stations;+ 2 LNG terminals (Terminal Regás-Flex)+ natural gas power plants
+ 2,332 km of gas pipelines until 2010+ 19 new power plants+ 1,236 MW until 2010
2nd investment cycle (2011 on) – Supply Flexibility and Diversification
24
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW PLAYERS OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW PLAYERS
Gas & Energy
Participate in Brazilian ethanol chain and develop global markets for Brazilian ethanol
Participate sustainably in the biodiesel business in Brazil and with selective international investments
Develop competitive technologies to produce biofuels from residual biomass
Growing Options in Biofuels and Low-carbon Technologies
Growing Options in Biofuels and Low-carbon Technologies
STRATEGY: To establish a global presence in the biofuels segment, with a particular focus on
biodiesel and ethanol
25
BA
MG
CE
Montes Claros
Quixadá
Candeias
Petrobras’ Biodiesel Plants
26
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.0002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Business Plan 2009 – 2013
Business Plan 2008- 2012
43,00069,000
QualifiedPersonnel
174,000
Prominp - Human Resources DemandProminp - Human Resources Demand
27
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.0002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Business Plan 2008 – 2012
243,00043,000
Qualified Personnel
Business Plan2009-2013
Atualização 16mar2009
Prominp - Human Resources DemandProminp - Human Resources Demand
Freight 19 vessels
Refinery Premium II
28 Drilling Rigs
146 Supply Boats
New Stationary Production Units
PROMEF II
Refinery Premium I
Funding for the Next Two Years Resolved
Funding for the Next Two Years Resolved
2009 2010
Needs
• US$ 18.10 bn
Sources• BNDES: US$ 12.5 bn• Pre-funding 2008: US$ 2.5 bn• Capital Market: US$ 6 bn
Needs
• US$ 18.9 bn
Sources• BNDES: US$ 10.0 bn• Remainder to be financed : US$ 8.9 bn• 15% reduction in capex would reduce
remaining financial needs to less thanUS$ 4 bn
28
Funding for 2009 completed, with remaining needs for 2010 to be met via traditional sources and cost reductions
2020 Vision: To be One of the World’s Five Largest Publicly Traded Oil Producers
2020 Vision: To be One of the World’s Five Largest Publicly Traded Oil Producers
2007 (SEC) reserves and production
XOM
RDS
BP
CVXTOT COP
PBR
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500
Production (mboe/d)
Reserves (mm boe
)
ProductionTarget: 2009
ProductionTarget: 2013
ProductionTarget: 2020
29
There are huge opportunities for already installed and newcomers in Brazilian market of suppliers, service and engineering companies due to the scale provide by project portfolio.
Petrobras has a robust project portfolio, which is atypical of the current economical situation.
Petrobras accomplishments are supported by its technological capabilities as well as its operational experiences focusing on a safe hydrocarbon recovery
In order to carry out such portfolio, Petrobras is looking forward to establishing stable long term business relationships with all available companies that are willing to invest in Brazil.
ConclusionsConclusionsConclusions
30
