War in Chechnya in the eyes of RussiansIlya Ponomarev, April 2005Ilya Ponomarev, April 2005

History of the conflict• 1817 – beginning of Chechen-Russian conflict, gen. Ermolov troops enter 1817 – beginning of Chechen-Russian conflict, gen. Ermolov troops enter

ChechnyaChechnya• 1860 – conflict settled; imam Shamil honored by Tsar Alexander II1860 – conflict settled; imam Shamil honored by Tsar Alexander II• 1918-1920 – Chechen troops are fighting for bolsheviks1918-1920 – Chechen troops are fighting for bolsheviks• 1922 – Chechnya becomes autonomy inside Russian Federation1922 – Chechnya becomes autonomy inside Russian Federation• 1944 – Chechens deportation under Stalin’s order1944 – Chechens deportation under Stalin’s order• 1957 – Chechens allowed to come back1957 – Chechens allowed to come back• 1990 – declaration of sovereignty1990 – declaration of sovereignty• 1991 – Dudaev becomes Chechen leader; de-facto separation of Chechnya from 1991 – Dudaev becomes Chechen leader; de-facto separation of Chechnya from

Russia, Rutskoy ultimatum fails, Russian military withdrawnRussia, Rutskoy ultimatum fails, Russian military withdrawn• 1994 – Russia-sponsored Chechen opposition tries to replace Dudaev and fails1994 – Russia-sponsored Chechen opposition tries to replace Dudaev and fails• 1994 – beginning of first war, Russian tanks attack Grozny1994 – beginning of first war, Russian tanks attack Grozny• 1996 – Dudaev killed, Yandarbiev acting president1996 – Dudaev killed, Yandarbiev acting president• 1996 – gen. Lebed, using Russian oligarch Berezovsky as mediator, signes peace 1996 – gen. Lebed, using Russian oligarch Berezovsky as mediator, signes peace

treaty in Khasavyurttreaty in Khasavyurt• 1997 – Maskhadov elected Chechen President1997 – Maskhadov elected Chechen President• 1999 – invasion of Basaev troops to Dagestan, terrorists attacks in Moscow 1999 – invasion of Basaev troops to Dagestan, terrorists attacks in Moscow

and other cities, beginning of second warand other cities, beginning of second war• 2000 – Putin selects Akhmad Kadyrov to become a new Chechen leader2000 – Putin selects Akhmad Kadyrov to become a new Chechen leader• 2002 – Nord-Ost hostages crisis2002 – Nord-Ost hostages crisis• 2003 – Kadyrov writes new Constitution and becomes Chechen President2003 – Kadyrov writes new Constitution and becomes Chechen President• 2004 – Kadyrov assassinated, Alkhanov becomes new President2004 – Kadyrov assassinated, Alkhanov becomes new President• 2004 – Beslan2004 – Beslan• 2005 – Maskhadov killed near Grozny2005 – Maskhadov killed near Grozny

First War (1994-1996)Disapproval was high from the very Disapproval was high from the very beginning:beginning:

– Was not considered to be a war, just Was not considered to be a war, just reckless action by an unpredictable and reckless action by an unpredictable and unpopular presidentunpopular president

– Critics both from left and right, total Critics both from left and right, total opposition by mediaopposition by media

– Associations with Afganistan affairAssociations with Afganistan affair– Many military defeats during campaignMany military defeats during campaign

• Boasts by gen. Grachev turned into heavy Boasts by gen. Grachev turned into heavy casualtiescasualties

First War (1994-1996)

What do you think of the decision for Russian troops to enter Chechnya?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), Ja

nuar

y 19

95

22%

64%

14%

Approve Disapprove No answer

First War (1994-1996)

What do you think is most important – peace in Chechnya or Russia’s integrity?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), N

ovem

ber 1

996

60%29%

11%

Peace in Chechnya Preserve Russia integrity No answer

First War (1994-1996)

Do you approve Eltsyn’s decision to withdraw troops from Chechnya?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), N

ovem

ber 1

996

74%

13%

13%

Approve Disapprove No answer

First War (1994-1996)

How did your attitude towards general Lebed changed after signing peace agreement?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), Se

ptem

ber 1

996

56%38%

3% 3%

Became better No change Became worse No answer

Second War (1999-???)High popular support:High popular support:

– Demand to restore national dignityDemand to restore national dignity– Retaliation for previous defeats and for Retaliation for previous defeats and for

terrorist attacks in Russian citiesterrorist attacks in Russian cities• Chechens are considered to be Chechens are considered to be ««absolute evilabsolute evil»»

– High hopes that order can be restored and High hopes that order can be restored and security achievedsecurity achieved

– Public opinion consolidated around Putin – Public opinion consolidated around Putin – uncompromised, young, energetic and uncompromised, young, energetic and visibly strong politician who promised to visibly strong politician who promised to solve the problemsolve the problem

– Relatively low mortality in the army Relatively low mortality in the army during first months of campaigning, during first months of campaigning, military successesmilitary successes

Second War (1999-???)

How does war in Chechnya affects Putin’s ratings?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), Ju

ne 2

001

05

1015202530354045

Mar-00

May-00

Jul-0

0

Sep-00

Nov-00

Jan-0

1

Mar-01

May-01

IncreasesDo not influenceDecreases

Second War (1999-???)

How will decision to start peace negotiations affect your opinion about Putin?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), M

arch

200

022%

37%

30%

11%

Will become better Will not change Will become worse No answer

Second War (1999-???)

Worst events of year 2000

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), D

ecem

ber 2

000 47%

21%

7%3%1%

21%

Loss of Kursk submarine War in Chechnya Terrorist attacks

Energy crisis in the Far East Ostankino TV tower fire Other/no answer

Second War (1999-???)

Personal Putin’s failures in 2000

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), D

ecem

ber 2

000

34%

17%

10%

7%

5%

27%

Chechnya KurskHigh prices Continuation of Eltsyn's policyDeaths during terrorist attacks Other

Second War (1999-???)War turned to be different as people War turned to be different as people hoped and started to resemble first hoped and started to resemble first campaign:campaign:

– Nord-Ost and especially Beslan delivered Nord-Ost and especially Beslan delivered shock to the nation:shock to the nation:

• Using force was authorized by president, Using force was authorized by president, because otherwise negotiations with because otherwise negotiations with Maskhadov would become imminentMaskhadov would become imminent

– Kadyrov appeared to be a corrupt tyrant Kadyrov appeared to be a corrupt tyrant and obvious criminaland obvious criminal

• His assassination on Victory Day 2004 His assassination on Victory Day 2004 demonstrated zero control by military over demonstrated zero control by military over the situationthe situation

– Contradictions between declarations of Contradictions between declarations of Putin and reality became obviousPutin and reality became obvious

Second War (1999-???)

What would be the consequences of the conflict in Chechnya?

VCIO

M (w

ww

.wci

om.ru

), M

arch

200

1

05

101520253035404550

Dec-99

Feb-0

0

Apr-00

Jun-0

0

Aug-00

Oct-00

Dec-00

Feb-0

1

Separatists willbe defeated

Russia willcontrol territoryto the north ofTerek riverConflict will bebloody and endslike in 1996

Conflict willspread to otherterritories

Second War (1999-???)

How you can characterize current situation in Chechnya?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Janu

ary

2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Aug

-03

Oct

-03

Dec

-03

Feb-

04

Apr

-04

Jun-

04

Aug

-04

Oct

-04

Dec

-04

Military actionBuilding peaceNo answer

Second War (1999-???)

Do you think Russian authorities can achieve their objectives in Chechnya?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Apri

l 200

4

05

101520253035404550

Feb-01

Jun-0

1

Oct-01

Feb-02

Jun-0

2

Oct-02

Feb-03

Jun-0

3

Oct-03

Feb-04

Peace is near

Peace is far away

Settlement ofconflict isimpossibleIndependence willbe recognized

No answer

Second War (1999-???)

How will the Chechen presidential elections affect situation in the republic?

ROM

IR (w

ww

.rom

ir.ru

), Au

gust

200

49%

55%

28%

8%

Will worsen Will not change Will become better No answer

Second War (1999-???)

Do you approve government actions in Chechnya?

ROM

IR (w

ww

.rom

ir.ru

), Au

gust

200

4

11%

30%

15%12%

32%

Completely approve Partially approve No answerCompletely disapprove Mostly disapprove

Second War (1999-???)Current situation:Current situation:

– There is no publicly recognized solution to the There is no publicly recognized solution to the problemproblem

• Idea of independence unpopular both among Russians Idea of independence unpopular both among Russians and Chechensand Chechens

– Putin afraid of possible international prosecution Putin afraid of possible international prosecution after his resignation, but cannot lose faceafter his resignation, but cannot lose face

– Human rights activists and Western foundations are Human rights activists and Western foundations are compromised in the eyes of Russianscompromised in the eyes of Russians

– Maskhadov believed to be killed under secret deal Maskhadov believed to be killed under secret deal between Putin and Bushbetween Putin and Bush

– Attitude towards Chechens slightly betterAttitude towards Chechens slightly better• People worries start to shift from fears of national People worries start to shift from fears of national

conflict towards fears of country disintegration and conflict towards fears of country disintegration and rise of separatism and extremismrise of separatism and extremism

– Maskadov’s death did not seriously changed attitude Maskadov’s death did not seriously changed attitude towards the wartowards the war

– Economic issues become more importantEconomic issues become more important

Second War (1999-???)

How do you see future of Chechnya?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Janu

ary

2005

45%

17%

24%

14%

18%

31%

34%

11%

26%

40%

14%26%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

No answer

Independent state

Autonomous RussianregionOne of Russian regions

Region ruled by executiveorders by the president

Maskhadov death

What do you feel about Maskhadov been killed?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), M

arch

200

532%

14%5%1%3%

1%6%

1%2%

1%

13%

18%

3%

Emotionally positive It is fairOne terrorist less Maskhadov was enemyIt would be more order in Chechnya Mixed emotionsEmotionally negative He should be taken aliveNothing will change Maskhadov is aliveIt was betrayal Do not careNo answer

Maskhadov death

How Maskhadov’s death will affect the situation in Chechnya?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), M

arch

200

5

24%

53%

6%

17%

Will become better Will not change Will become worse No answer

Maskhadov death

How Maskhadov’s death will affect the level of resistance in Chechnya?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), M

arch

200

517%

46%

17%

20%

Will increase Will not change Will decrease No answer

Attitude towards Chechens

Are Chechens the same people as Russians and have the same amount of civil rights?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Dec

embe

r 200

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2002  2003 

YesNoNo answer

Attitude towards Chechens

Do you hate Chechens?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Dec

embe

r 200

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2003

YesNoNo answer

Attitude towards Chechens

Are you afraid of Chechens?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Dec

embe

r 200

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000   2003 

YesNoNo answer

Attitude towards Chechens

How shall we treat Chechens?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Dec

embe

r 200

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002  2003 

We should treatChechens asequalsChechensunderstand onlyforceNo answer

Public opinion on terrorist attacks

How would you assess the probability of new terrorist attacks?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Janu

ary

2005 44%

45%

7% 1% 3%

Very probable Quite probable Not so probable Unprobable No answer

Public opinion on terrorist attacks

Who is responsiblefor terrorist attacks in Russian cities?

NBP

(ww

w.n

bp-in

fo.ru

), O

ctob

er 2

004,

Ura

ls re

gion

22%

37%

26%

15%

Those, who carried the attacks International terrorists Russian security forces No answer

Public opinion on terrorist attacks

What to do in case of new taking hostages?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Janu

ary

2005

31%

59%

10%

Fight terrorists even in case of danger to hostages Avoid bloodshed at any cost No answer

Public opinion on terrorist attacks

What do you think about proposal of Attorney General to take terrorists relatives as hostages?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Janu

ary

2005

51%

38%

11%

Agree Disagree No answer

What to do?

What shall Russia do now in Chechnya?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Janu

ary

2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct

-00

Apr-

01

Oct

-01

Apr-

02

Oct

-02

Apr-

03

Oct

-03

Apr-

04

Oct

-04

Continue fighting

Start peacenegotiationsNo answer

Nord-Ost terrorist attack

What to do?

What should government do in Chechnya?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Oct

ober

200

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2001 2002 2003

Use more force toexterminateterroristsPut more effort torestoreinfrastructureTry to make a dealwith respectedChechen leadersContinue as it goes

Other/No answer

What to do?

Can the government solve the problem of Chechen conflict?

FOM

(ww

w.fo

m.ru

), M

arch

200

511%

30%

33%

11%

15%

Authorities can and will solve the problemAuthorities would like, but cannot solve the problemAuthorities can, but do not want to solve the problemAuthorities can not solve the problem and do not want to do soNo answer

Importance of Chechnya conflict in Russian politics

What are the major problems in your life?

Leva

da-C

ente

r (w

ww

.leva

da.ru

),

Dec

embe

r 200

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1996 2000 2003 2004

Poverty and high prices

Deterioration of nationaleconomyCollapse of Russia as astateAnarchy and incompetenceof governmentDependence from the West

Spreading war inChechnya

Putin elected