+ All Categories
Home > Business > 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Date post: 23-Jan-2017
Category:
Upload: the-business-council-of-mongolia
View: 187 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
36
Review and outlook of Mongolia’s investment environment Bilguun Ankhbayar MIBG SC
Transcript
Page 1: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Review and outlook of Mongolia’s investment environment

Bilguun AnkhbayarMIBG SC

Page 2: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Current state

3.91₮ 4.16₮4.89₮

5.50₮6.14₮

6.57₮

-1.30%

6.40%

17.30%

12.30%11.60%

7.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

0.00₮

1.00₮

2.00₮

3.00₮

4.00₮

5.00₮

6.00₮

7.00₮

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GDP (2005 base) GDP GrowthTrillion MNT GDP grpwth %

2009-2014 GDP vs Growth

₮1,000₮1,100₮1,200₮1,300₮1,400₮1,500₮1,600₮1,700₮1,800₮1,900

2009-2014 USD vs MNT

$0.62

$1.69

$4.71$4.45

$2.49

$0.75

$1.30$1.71

$2.78

$3.33 $3.43

$4.00

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FDI Government budget

2009-2014 FDI vs Gov Spending

₮0.00

₮0.50

₮1.00

₮1.50

₮2.00

₮2.50

2009-2014 Monthly unemployment benefit cost

Billion MNT

Page 3: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

The cause for drop in FDI

₮0.00

₮100.00

₮200.00

₮300.00

₮400.00

₮500.00

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

Turquoise Hill Resources share price performance (2009-2014)

2009Explore-124

Drill-67

2010Explore-173

Drill-108

2011Explore-302

Drill-190

2012Explore-324

Drill-206

2013Explore-142

Drill-79

Parliament reviews OT IA draft

OT IA signed

68% windfall profit tax canceled

2010 budget announced

at $758 million

$1.5 billion was secured from EBRD

and IFC

2011 budget approved at $2.1 billion

20 parliament members petition to change the OT

IA 34%-50%

Rio increases stake to 48.5%

MRAM revokes SouthGobilicenses in

relation to Chalcobid

SEFIL passed

Parliament election

Chalco bid terminated

GOM wants to renegotiate OT IA

OT begins production

GOM says Phase-2

funding will need

approval

Cancellation of SEFIL

Amended Mineral Law

Page 4: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Domestic factors for the drop in FDI

1. Moratorium banning the issuance of new exploration licenses -2010

2. 20 parliamentarians’ petition on OT IA -2011

3. Revocation of SouthGobi Resources license -2012

4. Passing of SEFIL -2012

5. Draft Minerals Law -2012

6. Government’s request to renegotiate OT IA -2012

7. Delay in OT phase-2 funding-2013-2014

Actions Cause

1. Democratic nature: Arthur Schlesinger’s cyclical theory

2. Traditional and nomadic lifestyle

3. Past experience under communist regime

Page 5: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Is Mongolia the only country slowing down?

-1.30%

6.40%

17.50%

12.40% 11.70%

-1.00%

5.80% 5.80% 5.40% 4.10%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mongolia Chile

4.60%6.20% 6.50% 6.30% 5.80%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mongolia Indonesia

1.20%

7.30% 7.50% 5.00% 6.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mongolia Kazakhstan

1.70% 2.00% 2.20% 3.60% 2.70%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mongolia Australia

Source: World Bank

Page 6: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

External factors- Weak commodities’ price

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Copper (USD per metric ton)

$0$200$400$600$800

$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000

Gold (USD per troy ounce)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Australian thermal coal (USD per metric ton)

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180$200

Iron ore, China Import Price (USD per dry metric ton)

Source: Index Mundi

Page 7: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

External factors- Investors’ sentiment

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00TSX.V Copper price Gold Price

Investor sentiment within the commodities sector is at 5 year low

TSX.V- 114.53

Gold- 152.63

Copper- 218.18

Page 8: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Domestic outlook- Political barometer

45.50%47.50% 50.30%

38.60%37.80%

23.30%15.80%

13.50% 13.70% 15.30%6.10%

5.50% 5.10% 5.90% 7.10%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Improve slightly Remain same Worsen slightly

What is your outlook on the economy in the next 5 years?

19.6%

29.6% 31.8%

23.3%22.6%

46.8%43.3%

43.3%43.2%

36.8%

25.7%

15.4% 14.7%20.4%

28.0%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Improving Stagnating Worsening

How would you rate the current state of the economy?

Improving

Worsening

Stagnating

Remain sameWorsen

Improve

What shareholding structure should be used to develop Strategic Mineral Deposits?

59.60%

55.80%

52.50%

54.00%

55.50%

57.00%

58.50%

60.00%

2013 2014

Mongolia's shareholding over 51%

6.90%8.70%

0.00%

3.00%

6.00%

9.00%

12.00%

2013 2014

Equal shareholding

0.50%

0.80%

0.00%

0.30%

0.60%

0.90%

2013 2014

Foreign shareholding over 51%

Source: Sant Maral Foundation

Page 9: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Domestic outlook- Political barometer

17.3

27.1

16.9

34.2

16.5

28.9

15.3

35.4

8.9

34

14.6

39.7

9.5

35.4

8.6

43.2

11

40.3

8.4

35.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Government should help the poor directly

Invest in long term social development programs such

as Public Education and Health Care projects

Cash handout for each citizen

Invest in economic development projects

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Where should mineral wealth be invested by the Government?

Source: Sant Maral Foundation

Page 10: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

External outlook

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180$200

Iron Ore Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Coal Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

Gold Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Copper Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025

Source: World Bank

Page 11: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Domestic outlook and expectations

• New Investment Law• Investment Fund Law• Securities Market Law• Mineral Law• Petroleum Law

• Smart Government initiative• Mineral policy• Accessible Mineral Licenses• Reduction in corruption• Improvement in infrastructure

POSITIVE LEGAL ENVIRONMENT

STABILITY

Current investment environment Uncertainties

• Oyu Tolgoi Phase-2 funding• Tax dispute involving Oyu Tolgoi LLC• Railway policy• Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi IPO

Environment is readyCatalyst event needed!

MIBG’s expectations

• Economic slowdown to continue

• Public more friendly towards FDI but future volatility is certain

• Government policy to support private sector

• Mineral discoveries will take place (Erdene Resource, Xanadu Mines)

Page 12: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Thank you for your attention• Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to

Bilguun Ankhbayar using the provided contact information below.

• Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn

• Please forward any questions or comments to:

Bilguun AnkhbayarChief Executive Office

Office: +976 1136 2620Email: [email protected]

12

The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the officialposition of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entitiesdiscussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute anoffer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In makingdecisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurateand reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advancenotice.

Important Disclosures

Page 13: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Country Data

Key Indicators 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Real GDP growth (%) -1.27% 6.37% 17.51% 12.28% 11.78%

Real GDP (2009 based) 3.9 5.3 6.9 8.8 10.6

CPI Inflation (%) 8.01% 10.07% 9.18% 14.02% 12.5%

Exports (mil.USD) 2,304.6 3,391.5 5,462 5,231.7 4,272.7

Imports (mil.USD) 3,777.7 2,637.3 7,608.3 7,894.9 6,354.7

Population (mil) 2.71 2.76 2.79 2.83 2.87

Unemployment rate (%) 11.6% 9.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.1%Source: NSO, Mongol Bank

Source: Ministry of Economic Development forecast

GDP growth Trade balance

Source: NSO

-1.27%

6.40%

17.50%

12.20% 12.00%

7.50%

10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP (bln USD) GDP growth %billion USD % change

-$4,000.00

-$2,000.00

$0.00

$2,000.00

$4,000.00

$6,000.00

$8,000.00

$10,000.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Exports Imports External trade balancemil.USD

Page 14: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

CPI

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Consumer Price Index

2011 2012 2013

Page 15: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Currency Crisis!!

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

USD / MNT exchange rate

USD Exchange rate 1,823₮

1,437₮MNT -26.9% 1 yr MNT -37.3% 2 yr

1,328₮

Page 16: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) FDI vs. GDP Growth

15.00% 13.60%

27.30%

55.10%

37.00%

17.70%

12.50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

$0.00

$1,000.00

$2,000.00

$3,000.00

$4,000.00

$5,000.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F

FDI Inflow (mil.USD) FDI (% of GDP)

Million USD

Role of Foreign Direct Investment

*As of the end of April 2014, FDI is down 64% YoY to $350 million USD for the first 4 months.

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FDI GDP Gov Spending

Page 17: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Quantitative easing??

₮4,000

₮5,000

₮6,000

₮7,000

₮8,000

₮9,000

₮10,000

₮11,0002012-2014 M2

10,197₮

8,004₮

7,051₮M2 +27.9% 1 yr M2 +44.6% 2 yr

Page 18: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Interest rate in Mongolia

33.60%

30.00%

32.40%

27.60%

15.60% 15.60%

9.75% 10.00%11.00% 12.25%

13.25%

10.50%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bank Interest Rate Policy Rate Savings Rate

Page 19: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Current state of the economy

What has happened?• Continuously dropping FDI• $1.5 billion in Chinggis Bond• $300 million in Samurai Bond• MNT depreciation of 36% in 2 years• Rising living expenses• Slowdown in coal sales in China• OT lay-off of 2000 employees in the past 2 years• Widespread layoffs at MobiCom, Wagner Asia etc.• Bankruptcy of Eznis

What are the uncertainties?• Minerals law amendments• OT phase-2 financing• 106 license issues• Lifting of a ban on new exploration licenses

We have been thru this before!!! 2009, 2006, 1998

Page 20: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Economics and demographics

2011 2012 2013 2013%

0-18 952,026 977,027 1,002,419 34.21%

18-35 948,017 946,894 954,516 32.57%

36-55 689,515 709,722 729,452 24.89%

55+ 222,108 234,101 243,890 8.32%

Total 2,811,666 2,867,744 2,930,277 100.00%

11.32%

24.07%

30.44%

18.61%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GDP per person Growth %

GDP per person Age segment of the population

Source: NSO

Page 21: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Country Data – Economic sectors

Source: NSO

Sector contributions to the GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Mining 23.60% 24.10% 20.20% 20.20%

Agriculture and Forestry 14.30% 12.30% 14.20% 14.50%

Retail and wholesale 15.60% 17.60% 17.70% 17.40%

Industrial processing 8.40% 7.80% 7.50% 8.30%

Real Estate 6.60% 7.00% 6.90% 7.30%

Transportation and logistics 7.80% 7.20% 6.00% 4.80%

Financial services 2.90% 3.40% 4.20% 4.70%

Education 4.00% 4.00% 4.60% 4.40%

Defense 3.60% 3.30% 4.20% 3.90%

Construction 1.70% 2.30% 2.90% 3.50%

Services 2.80% 2.90% 3.10% 3.10%

Information communication 3.40% 3.10% 3.10% 2.70%

Health care 1.70% 1.70% 1.90% 1.90%

Utilities 2.50% 2.10% 2.00% 1.80%

Hospitality 0.60% 1.00% 1.20% 1.10%

Entertainment 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%

Mining Agriculture and Forestry

Retail and wholesale Industrial processing

Real Estate Transportation and logistics

Financial services Education

Defense Construction

Services Information communication

Health care Utilities

Hospitality Entertainment

Page 22: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

It is a mining economy!1200

150 90 80 38 35 30 30 30 260

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Copper (million tons)

238

163 157

115

7659

34 31 308

0

50

100

150

200

250 Coal (billion tons)

1673

1390

652485 480

296 284 278 273 207

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Uranium (thousand tons)

Interesting outlook on China

By 2019, Chinese economy could overtake the US in terms PPP -International Comparison Program

By 2025, China will build enough skyscrapers to fill TEN New York-size cities- McKinsey

By 2030, Chinese cities will add 350 million new residents from suburban areas- McKinsey

By 2030, Chinese economy could be the largest in the world in terms of absolute GDP

Page 23: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Questions and Contact Details• Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to

Nadya Gankhuyag using the provided contact information below.

• Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn

• Please forward any questions or comments to:

Bilguun AnkhbayarMongolian Investment Banking Group

Office: +976 1136 2620Email: [email protected]

23

The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the officialposition of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entitiesdiscussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute anoffer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In makingdecisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurateand reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advancenotice.

Important Disclosures

Page 24: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Country Data - Cont

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F

FDI Inflows

FDI Inflow (mil.USD) FDI (% of GDP)

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Consumer Price Index

2011 2012 2013

$1,200.0

$1,300.0

$1,400.0

$1,500.0

$1,600.0

$1,700.0

$1,800.0USD Exchange rate

USD Exchange rate

Source: NSO, Mongolbank

Source: EIU

Page 25: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Financial Sector - Structure

Financial Sector Structure

Banking Sector

Central Bank

CommercialBanks

Non-Banking Sector

Nonbank Financial

Institutions

Savings and Credit

Cooperatives

Securities Companies

Insurance companies

Number Assets (bil.MNT)

% of the Market

Banking Sector

Commercial Banks 14 96.4%

Private 13 8,991 94%

State owned 1 232 2.4%

Non-banking Sector

NBFI 192 189 2%

Insurance companies 17 77 0.8%

Savings and Credit cooperatives

170 59 0.6%

Securities Companies 88 14 0.1%

Total 481 9,563 100%

Financial sector in numbers (as of 2012)

Page 26: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Banking Sector

Top Commercial Banks

Domestic Market Shares Number of branches

Loans % Deposits %

Golomt Bank 21.0% 25.4% 91

TDB 22.9% 20.3% 45

Khan Bank 24.9% 25.2% 512

Xac Bank 9.0% 6.7% 100

Main Duties

• Formulates and implements monetary policy

• Stabilize national currency

• Management of interest and exchange rates

• Oversight of government borrowing

• Supervision of inter-bank settlement and lending

• Printing and issuance of banknotes

• Management of international reserves

• Financial supervision of banks

Outlining Laws and regulations

Laws Law on Central Bank of Mongolia

Sector specific laws

Banking law, Law on Deposits,Payment Settlements and LoanActivities of Banks and LegalEntities, Law on Insurance,Securities Market Law

Central Bank of Mongolia – Mongolbank Commercial Banks in Mongolia

Other commercial banks Development Bank of Mongolia

Capital Bank National Investment Bank

Capitron Bank Liquidated banks

Credit Bank Ard Bank

State Bank Anod Bank

Transbank Mongol Business Bank

Ulaanbaatar city Bank Zoos Bank

Chinggis Khan Bank Khotsh Bank

Erel Bank

Page 27: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Banking Sector - Cont

Funding and liquidity of Mongolian commercial banks

Loan Market share and distribution by banks and industry

Source: Mongolbank, NSO

Page 28: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Banking Sector – Cont

Annual average interest rates in Mongolia Housing Mortgage Program

2013 June – Housing Mortgage Program was launched by the government of Mongolia

•Mortgage loan, ranges between 1-20 years and has theweighted average term of 17.3 years.

•In July and August, After mortgage program started, 183billion MNT mortgage was issued by housing programwith 8% interest rate.

•In July and August, After mortgage programstarted, 3098 borrowers have been granted the housingmortgage, 592 borrowers have been granted by banksown capital.

33.60%30.00%

32.40%

27.60%

15.60% 15.60%

9.75% 10.00% 11% 12.25% 13.25%10.50%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bank Interest Rate Policy Rate Savings Rate

Source: Mongolbank

Page 29: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Mongolian Capital Market - Structure

• 1991 – Established MSE, followed by launching of 29 broker dealers firms

• 1992 – 475 State-owned enterprises were reorganized into Joint Stock Company (JSC)

• 1994 – Established Mongolian Securities Exchange Commission

• 1995 – Mongolia’s first Securities law was passed

• 1996 – First government bond was traded on MSE

• 2001 – MSE started trading company bonds

• 2003 – Securities Clearing House and Central Depository was organized

• 2006 – FRC was restructured with extended duties

• 2010 – Market value of Mongolian Stock Exchange exceeded 1 Trillion MNT

• 2012 – MSE launched Millennium IT, trade and payment system

Financial Regulatory Commission

• Regulate and supervise all aspects of Capital Market

• Grants approval (registration of securities, IPO)

Mongolian Stock Exchange

• Organizes trading of securities

• Trades Gov. bonds, Company bonds, Stocks

Securities Clearing House and Central Depository

• Executes the settlement and savings of the securities

• Keeps record of the securities registration

Timeline of Mongolian Capital Market

Page 30: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Mongolian Capital Market - NBFI

₮69.20 ₮66.40 ₮78.50 ₮96.50₮128.60

₮205.40₮252.10

₮282.40

139 137

132

177 182195

212 229

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-₮50.00

₮50.00

₮150.00

₮250.00

₮350.00

₮450.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NBFI Assets (Billion MNT) Number of NBFIs

Mongolian Micro-Finance Asset Growth vs. Number of NBFIs

Source: FRC Mongolia

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

0.00₮

50.00₮

100.00₮

150.00₮

200.00₮Total Loans Borrowers

Micro-Finance Total Loans OS vs. Number of Borrowers in Mongolia

Source: Mongol Bank, FRC quarterly

Current borrower market in Mongolia consists of privateindividuals looking for salary loans to SMEs looking forworking capital.

Due to the seasonal nature of Mongolia’s economicactivity, the demand for Micro-Finance loans becomehigh during the later half of the year as individuals andbusinesses prepare for winter.

On average a borrower had borrowed ₮800,000 MNT(Approximately $500 USD) from a Micro-Finance instituteover the past 3 years.

Average interest rate at a Micro-Finance institute inMongolia is currently 39.6%.

Page 31: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Mongolian Capital Market - Insurance

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Insurance companies 18 17 17 18 17

Branches 129 138 138 188 213

Insurance agent 1676 2061 2057 2357 3187

Insurance intermediary 5 9 8 17 20

Insurance evaluator 2 6 9 9 14

Actuary 10 12 13 18 15

Total 1711 2105 2104 2419 3253

Current Asset of Insurance companies

bil.MNT

Top 10 Insurance companies with total asset

Name Total Asset (mil.MNT)

% of Market Name Total Asset(mil.MNT)

% of Market

Mongol Daatgal 25,635.5 20.3% MIG Daatgal 7,522.5 6.0%

Bodi Daatgal 12,551.0 9.9% Ard Daatgal 7,128.3 5.6%

Tenger Daatgal 9,743.2 7.7% Soyombo Daatgal 6,746.8 5.3%

Mandal Daatgal 8,822.3 7.0% Nomin Daatgal 6,611.1 5.2%

Practical Daatgal 7,867.8 6.2% National Life Daatgal 5,626.7 4.5%

Mongolian Insurance companies in number

Source: FRC quarterly report

Page 32: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Mongolian Capital Market – Savings and Credit Cooperatives

Savings and Credit Cooperatives in numbers Total Asset of SCC (in bil.MNT)

Top 10 Savings and Credit Cooperatives with total assets

Name Total Asset (mil.MNT)

% of the market Name Total Asset (mil.MNT)

% of the market

Nomin Union 2,062.2 21.1% Monconcord 241.8 2.5%

Mai Capital 928.1 9.5% Ireeduin Zorilt 212.5 2.2%

Monum 775.1 7.9% Yeson Delbee 177.7 1.8%

Moncord 409.9 4.2% Biluu Hugjil 152.2 1.6%

Sidan 306.7 3.1% Cengel Hugjil 150.2 1.5%

Source: FRC quarterly report

Page 33: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Mongolian Capital Market – Securities Companies

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Listed companies 376 358 336 330 328 227

Market Cap /bn MNT/ 515.5 620.7 1,373.9 2,168.5 1,799.8 1,670.5

% of GDP 8.4% 10.2%^ 16.6% 20% 12.9% 11.9%

Trading value /bn MNT/ 61.7 23.2 92.8 345.8 144.7 97.6

Bond Trading

Government /bn MNT/

1.4 - 30.0 236.7 270.0 1.01

Corporate /mln MNT/ 502.0 - - 2,000.0 - -

Index (top 20) 5,583.2 6,189.9 14,759.8 21,687.5 17,714.5 15094.9

Dividend issued /bn MNT/ 17.6 14.3 30.8 74.2 79.1 -

Number of IPOs 8 4 2 2 1 -

Source: Mongolbank, FRC quarterly report

Page 34: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Securities Company - Cont

Corporate and Government Bond trade on MSE

Securities Trading on MSE MSE Top 20 Index

Source: Mongolbank

Page 35: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

Questions and Contact Details• Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to

Nadya Gankhuyag using the provided contact information below.

• Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn

• Please forward any questions or comments to:

Nadya GankhuyagAssociate, Investment Banking

Office: +976 1136 2620Email: [email protected]

35

The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the officialposition of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entitiesdiscussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute anoffer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In makingdecisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurateand reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advancenotice.

Important Disclosures

Page 36: 05.09.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Mr. Bilguun Ankhbayar

MIBG LLC Corporate Profile• MIBG LLC is a registered Broker, Dealer, and Underwriter with the Financial Regulatory Commission of Mongolia. The firm aims to serve the needs of clients, domestic and foreign, individual and institutional, in their brokerage and advisory needs. MIBG delivers uncompromising value, clear and concise advisory services, and transparent business practices that ensure our clients interests are protected at all times.

• MIBG LLC was established in 2008 as a member of the Financial Services Corporation (FSCo LLC), a comprehensive services provider engaged in Venture Capital, Insurance, Long Term Savings, Securities Trading, and Investment Banking.

• Enquiries regarding this and any other information packages published and/or distributed by MIBG LLC should be directed to [email protected], for all other enquiries please contact [email protected].

36


Recommended