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Low Carbon Innovation Tour 2009Delivering results that will make history
Dennis Pamlin
Global Policy Advisor, WWF
2009 The Ashridge Sustainable Innovation Award in association with the EABIS and supported by HP and WWF
Sustainable Development
Creating a society that long-term can:Improve the quality of human life, giving everyone a chance to live a life in dignity, while living within the carrying capacity of supportive ecosystems,and leaving room for other species to exist.
ACT 1The Crime
ACT 2The Villain
ACT 3The Hero
?
Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2006
Personality (1)Know your history (your thinking)
Long-term GDP trendsGoldman Sachs
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
$USb
n
China
US
Japan
Germany
UK
France
Italy
India
EU-4
Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 (Goldman Sachs)
http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-dream.html, October 2003
Personality (1)Know your history (your thinking)
The CO2 explosionand explosion of use of natural resources
Personality (2)Global perspective
Personality (2)Global perspective
Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050
Shifting the development profile further to a “developed” world means energy needs triple by 2050
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2000 2050
Low Poverty
Base case Prosperous world
Po
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latio
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illion
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Population expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries.
Developed (GDP>$12,000)Emerging (GDP<$12,000)Developing (GDP<$5,000)Poorest (GDP<$1,500)
Primary energy
Sou
rce:
WB
CS
D a
dapt
atio
n of
IEA
200
3
Personality (2)Global perspective
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++
The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment
Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years
Nuclear 30 – 60 years
Coal power 45+ years
Hydro 75+ years
Gas turbines 25+ years
Buildings 45+++ years
Facts and Trends to 2050, WBCSD, November 2004
Personalty (3): Understand the Future
Winners in a low carbon economy
Or just winners in the 21st century
THINK BIG
What % of that investment can/must be invested in low carbon solutions instead of traditional carbon intensive solutions?
Urban investments to provide basic services the next 30 years
US $255 Trillion
Archive number
X Trillion dollars1. Light2. Water3. Motion/
communication
4. Temperature5. Food6. Other services
0 CO2
Low energy
Focus on services and solutions
The example of IT
The 98% opportunity
A global context
ICT's effect on CO2
-48,37
4,73
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
milli
on to
nnes
CO
2
possible CO2 replacement
ICT's impact in CO2
16 telcos’ impact 6 ICT services’ potential
The 98% opportunity
REALITY
HP climate strategy framework
Reduce HP-owned operations footprint
Reduce the impact of our products on the climate Develop products
and services that will reduce the footprint of the rest of the economy
Advocate for effective public policy to enable the transformation of the economy to low-carbon
2-4Mt CO2e*/ Highest control
50-80Mt CO2e* / Medium control
Up to 30,000Mt CO2e* / Lowest control
29 04/10/23
* Maximum addressable footprint. Order of magnitude.
低碳城市发展指标之哥本哈根宣言The Copenhagen declaration for a low carbon city development index
The example of retailing
Climate Positive approach
1. More renewable energy 3. More energy efficient equipment
6. Low carbon retailing business model5. Increased public transport Improved home delivery
2. Net production of electricity
4. Furniture that allows for flexible workand furniture that support low carbon food
Suppliers
transport
StoresExtraction Use Disposal
Reality
Possible climate positive contributions from IKEA
Suppliers
transp.
Stores
People transp.
Extraction Use Disposal
transport 13 500 000 CO2
Climate smart food 25 300 000 CO2
Total content in round wood 9 400 000 CO2
1/3 might be possible to capture = 3 000 000 CO2
Renewables
200 000 CO2
Trendsetting * 5 incl. a significant shift to e-commerce: 3 140 000 CO2
Total CO2 reduction potential 49 000 000 tonnes
Changing from GLS to CFL and 50% from current CFL to LED 2 000 000 CO2
Removing all 50% energy use from kitchen appliances 125 000 year/1 250 000 lifetime CO2
Action
A winner in the future
Old approach NewGoal Low risk/ Low cost Satisfying needs/New revenues Driver Media/Legislation New markets/Customers
Responsible PR/CSR manager Planning/SMT/CEO/Board
Focus What is easy to see/ Where the company’s impact legal responsibility is the most significant and
where money can be made
Climate change Reduce internal CO2 Help society to reduce CO2
Approach Reactive Proactive
Sustainable development谢谢 !