1 Abdolreza Abbassian - Agricultural Market Information ... · Abdolreza Abbassian AMIS Secretary...

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World Grain Market Situation & Outlook ‐2015/16AMIS Perspective

Abdolreza AbbassianAMIS Secretary

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2015 IGC GRAINS CONFERENCE

What is AMIS?

• An inter‐agency platform to enhance food market transparency and reduce the likelihood of food price volatility

• Ten member organizations:

• Launched by G20 Ministers of Agriculture in 2011

• Target crops:

• Focus: production, utilization, stocks, trade

• Participants: G20 Members + Spain and 7 invited countries

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Jun‐10 Aug‐10 Oct‐10 Dec‐10 Feb‐11 Apr‐11 Jun‐11 Aug‐11 Oct‐11

Wheat Maize BarleyExtraordinary FAO

IGG Meeting in Sept.

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US$/MT, fob

•Floods in Pakistan

•Rains in Canada and USA

•Rains and Floods in Australia

•MENA political tensions

•Oil price surge

•Declining $

•Winter wheat – uncertain growing conditions in US & China

USDA cuts maize output f’cast

USDA March 2011 planting/stocks

forecasts

USDA maize planted acreage estimates

USDA maize yield projections

Russia announces lifting the export ban

from July

• Macroeconomic problems•EURO Crisis

•CIS production recovery•Strong $

Russian bans grain exports

2010‐11 Price Surge


Global Coverage

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AMIS Market Monitor

• Providing a collective assessment of the market situation and outlook by the ten international organizations that form the AMIS Secretariat and GEOGLAM

• Produced 10 times a year

• Release dates in 2015: 05 February, 05 March, 02 April, 07 May, 04 June, 09 July, 10 September, 08 October, 05 November, 03 December

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http://www.amis‐outlook.org/amis‐monitoring/


• The FAO Food Price Indexhas been falling continuously since April 2014

• It is now at its lowest level since September 2009

• In May the Index was down 21% y/y and 31% below its peak in February 2011.

• Dairy down 30% y/y, Sugar27%, Cereals 22%, Oils21% and Meat 12%

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2015 IGC GRAINS CONFERENCE 8

May 2015Average*

% Change

M/M Y/Y

GOI 195 ‐ 2.0% ‐ 27.0%Wheat 182 ‐ 4.4% ‐ 28.1%Maize 179 ‐ 1.1% ‐ 26.7%Rice 161 ‐ 1.6% ‐ 9.0%Soybeans 189 ‐ 1.3% ‐ 32.0%

IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) and most sub‐Indices down sharply y/y

IGC commodity price indices

GOI* Wheat Maize Rice Soybeans

( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . January 2000 = 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

2014 May 267.8 253.0 244.0 176.4 277.6June 257.3 235.7 225.9 179.4 270.5July 242.2 221.8 203.7 183.2 252.0August 237.7 219.5 194.7 187.3 246.7September 224.2 219.1 179.8 183.5 224.3October 219.8 221.0 184.5 178.2 213.3November 226.9 223.4 193.5 174.7 225.1December 225.7 230.0 200.2 169.7 217.5

2015 January 216.5 214.4 190.8 168.4 209.8February 211.2 202.0 184.3 166.9 207.3March 204.4 197.9 180.7 165.6 197.1April 200.1 192.6 180.8 163.1 191.2May 195.4 182.0 178.8 160.5 188.7


Wheat Supply & Demand

• Production in 2015 forecast to decline by 0.8% from the 2014 record output• Trade below 2014/15 • Inventories to increase slightly• Stock‐to‐use ratio up marginally to 28.2% ‐ historical low was 20% in 2007/08

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Wheat: AMIS‐FAO‐IGC‐USDA balances

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WHEAT 2014/ 15 2015/ 16 2014/ 15 2015/ 16est. f 'cast est. f 'cast

12-M ay 28-M ay

Production 726 719 721 715

Supply 916 920 910 915

Utilization 715 717 710 715

Trade 164 157 153 149

Ending Stocks 201 203 200 200

million tonnes

USD A IGC2014/ 15

est.7-M ay 4-Jun

729 719 723

919 919 922

713 716 716

154 151 150

199 199 201

f 'cast2015/ 16

F A O-A M IS

• Production in 2015 adjusted upwards by 4 million tonnes m/m on larger anticipated harvests in North Africa and North America

• Utilization in 2015/16 unchanged from the previous month with a rise in food consumption being the main reason for the projected y/y increase

• Trade in 2015/16 (July/June) to contract by 2.4% from 2014/15 mostly because of smaller imports by Brazil, Turkey and Morocco

• Stocks (ending in 2016) to increase slightly, reaching a 13‐year high (2003), on larger inventories in the EU and the United States


GEOGLAM‐AMIS June Crop Monitor

Wheat: Overall conditions remain favourable

GEOGLAM‐ Conditions as of 28th May


Wheat Production1/

• Higher production in the US driven by expansions in winter wheat crop on better yields than last year – some quality concerns!

• Sharp fall in the EU (reduced plantings) and India (unfavorable weather before harvest)

• China heading for another record production (timely rains) , up slightly from the previous year’s record. Higher production also in Turkey

• Lower production in Russia (drought in the fall planting) and Ukraine (poor planting conditions)

• Lower prices could push down plantings in Argentina and result in reduced production. Higher production in Australia though El Niño is a concern

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Feed wheat utilization: to remain flat in 2015/16 – down slightly in the EU

Wheat stocks: remaining high in 2015/16 – up marginally from 2014/15

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World imports down slightly

Wheat trade in 2015/16 (July/June)

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EU exporting less after record sales in 2014/15


Forward curves maintained their mostly upward sloping structures (contango), indicating ample supplies into the new season.

Managed money reduced net shorts mid‐month (in May), inducing a brief “short covering” rally. Managed money maintained short positions for the last three months, departing from its normal bias toward the long side of agricultural commodities for the past decade.

Forward Curves CFTC Commitment of Traders


• Production in 2015 is forecast down from the 2014 record• Trade in 2015/16 (July/June) remaining steady • Utilization expands, but at a slower pace than in the previous season• Stock‐to‐use ratio at 21.3%, well above the historical low of 14.5 percent in 2006/07

World Maize Supply & Demand

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MAIZE 2014/ 15 2015/ 16 2014/ 15 2015/ 16est f 'cast est. f 'cast

12-M ay 28-M ay

Production 996 990 997 961

Supply 1170 1182 1173 1162

Utilization 977 990 973 974

Trade 121 121 119 120

Ending Stocks 193 192 201 187

USD A IGC

Maize: AMIS‐FAO‐IGC‐USDA Balances

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2014/ 15est.

7-M ay 4-Jun

1026 995 1002

1216 1217 1226

983 997 1000

117 117 118

224 217 219

F A O-A M IS2015/ 16

f 'cast

• Production in 2015 up 7 million tonnes m/m, reflecting improved crop prospects in China and Mexico

• Utilization in 2015/16 higher than anticipated last month, supported by a faster rise in feed use in China and Mexico

• Trade in 2015/16 (July/June) to exceed the 2014/15 level mostly on larger imports by the EU • Stocks (ending in 2016) likely to decline despite an upward adjustment of this month’s forecast

mostly due to an increased forecast for ending stocks in China


Maize: Good crop conditions

GEOGLAM‐ Conditions as of 28th May GEOGLAM‐AMIS June Crop Monitor


Maize Production• Lower production in

the US and the EU (on reduced plantings)

• South Africaharvesting smaller crops due to lower yields but China could achieve another record crop this year

• Brazil overall maizeproduction could be upgraded on improved yields (second crop) due to good weather conditions

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• Feed use continues to grow, albeit more modestly than in 2014/15

• Industrial usage slightly higher as maize used for production of ethanol in the US likely to remain steady

Maize Utilization

Maize Use for Ethanol (excluding non‐fuel) in the United States

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15* estim.

2015/16* (f'cast)

thousand tonnes

Maize Production 282 263 267 503 331 177 307 142 332 550 316 166 313 956 273 188 351 270 361 101 346 216

Ethanol Use 40 726 53 837 77 453 93 396 116 616 127 538 127 005 117 886 130 409 132 085 132 085

Yearly ethanol use change (%) 21% 32% 44% 21% 25% 9.4% ‐0.4% ‐7.2% 10.6% 1.3% 0.0%

As Production (%) 14% 20% 23% 30% 35% 40.3% 40.5% 43.2% 37.1% 36.6% 38.2%

Source: WASDE‐USDA. * 12 May 2015

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The US ethanol factor

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The newly released EPA mandate levels leaves room for 14 billion gallons of maize ethanol in 2016 which is below current production levels, with exports of approximately 800 million gallons annually. The impact not yet clear.


Imports: up slightly on larger imports by the EU

Exports: US and India exporting more

Maize Trade in 2015/16 (July/June)

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The China question!

Too low? too high?

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Small maize imports but large barley purchases by ChinaChina again importing large volume: 6.5mt in 2015/16!

Barley trade to reach 24.5mt in 2015/16, down slightly from 2014/15

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China accounts for most of the expansion in sorghum trade since 2012/13 (importing 8.5mt in 2014/15)

Sorghum trade remains at exceptionally high level of around 11.5mt

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….as well as big sorghum imports!


CFTC Commitment of TradersMaize Forward Curve

Forward curves for maize maintained their mostly upward sloping structures (contango), indicating ample supplies into the new season.

Managed money added to net short futures positions in maize. Similar to wheat, managed money maintained short positions in maize for the last three months. The maize market also saw additional selling as USDA projected yields along trend lines and China made a notable shift from maize imports to other feed stuffs.

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Supply Good

Demand Lacklustre

Trade Uneventful

Stocks Ample

Prices Likely to remain depressed

Market Summary

But there are always many uncertainties : Weather/plantings – El Niño conditions continue to strengthen! Geopolitical risks Economic conditions, US dollar, oil price, etc.…

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Thank You

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