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Adapting to Climate Change & Environmental Pressures: Adaptation of Public Policy
Nancy OlewilerPublic Policy ProgramSimon Fraser University
Taming that Monster Under the Bed: Exploring Critical Relationships between Supply Chains and the EnvironmentJune 10, 2008
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Is nature becoming more volatile?
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Role of changing climate risk
Small changes in mean or extremes can yield large changes in risk
Infrastructure sensitive to Rate of climate change Changes in mean climate
(weathering) Changes in extremes
(thresholds/failure) Adaptive capacity (ability
to plan, respond, design, maintain)
[Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide & T. Peterson for the graphics]
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Impacts of climate change magnified by:
Larger population & population density & size of the economy
Building in high risk areas (flood plains) Lack of awareness, access to information,
and understanding of climate impacts Too much insurance, sense of entitlement Regulatory, legislative barriers Lack of tools or willingness to integrate
knowledge with actions, BAU thinking Interest group pressures
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Supply chain vulnerabilities to climate change
Transportation infrastructure: roads, rail lines, ports: damage from sea-level rise, erosion, flooding, land slides, and temperature extremes affecting road surfaces
Changes in productivity from natural resource sectors: forests, agriculture, mining due to temperature and precipitation (too much/too little): shorter ice road and drilling seasons, agricultural yields, pine beetle devastation
Fires impeding transportation, destroying infrastructure and communities
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Infrastructure life & climate impacts coincide
Long life & high value of Canadian capital stock
How to avoid costly retrofits or replacement of infrastructure?
Think about what type of investment now
(From IPCC 2007, WG2-Chapter 15—slide from L. Mortsch)
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Is the path forward clear?
“There is no scientific basis for claims that escalating disaster costs is the result of anything other than increasing societal vulnerability” (Pielke Jr., 2005 (Science))
“Society makes the assumption that technology and management can control nature and protect people” (Mileti, 1999; Disasters by Design)
Risk models need to change; cannot extrapolate from past experience (MunichRe)
“We need to better understand the compounding roles of increasing vulnerability and climate change” (Mills, 2005 (Science)) More people in harm’s
way vs. ongoing societal responses that should have compensated for this (Kunkel et al., 1999, BAMS)
Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide quotes.
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Issues and questions that arise from the data and projections
How will the climate change? Do we have useful climate models or scenarios? Are weather predictions & warnings adequate?
How will changing climate affect my community: city, province, country?
Is disaster planning & management adequate? Do our land uses, infrastructure maintenance and
development take into account climate change? Do we have the expertise and capacity (human and
financial) to address climate change? What is the role & responsibility of government vs.
private sector vs. people?
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Challenges: reasons to do nothing!
“I’ll deal with climate change when I see it happening – isn’t it good for Canada to be warmer!”
“I’ll deal with climate change when you can tell me exactly what I need to plan for”
“I don’t think global warming/climate change will affect my community”
“I’ll wait until I see other communities preparing for climate change”
“I don’t have time or money or information to deal with climate change right now”
“I don’t have enough authority to plan for climate change”
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Challenges: confusion between mitigation and adaptation
Shouldn’t public policy focus on reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) rather than on adaptation to climate change?
Does this mean we give up and simply respond to whatever climate does to us?
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Ways to address the challenges
First, find a name for what you are doing
Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the cartoon
A
M
Rapid deforestation for land use change (agriculture, mining, etc.)
Forest plantations for carbon sequestration;
expansion of large hydro development
[new vulnerabilities]
[AMSD]
Drought preparedness through demand side management;
expanded application of recycling and conservation principles
[adaptive emissions]
Expanded use of air conditioners, aquaculture and
sea walls
Emissions increased Emissions reduced
Vulnerability increased
Vulnerability reduced
A framework to link Adaptation (A) & Mitigation (M) [Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the diagram]
[unsustainable]
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What is needed to address adaptation problems
Pull together resources (human, $) using a interdisciplinary team approach that includes Best available science Best available engineering and technology and planning Economic and business acumen to ensure we weigh
costs & benefits & achieve targets at minimum cost Determination of the vulnerabilities: personal,
business, community: risk assessment = vital Leaders who look beyond the next election cycle An informed and engaged public Partnerships with other jurisdictions/organizations
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Ways to avoid paralysis
Start analysis of local vulnerabilities because: Many policy levers already exist, e.g.
Zoning & land use Infrastructure maintenance & investment Coincide with energy efficiency, GHG mitigation
Education and buy in of community is easier when make concrete link to local impacts
Likely minimizes costs of achieving targets because will be closer link between problem & solution (one size does not fit all)
Look for partners who can help
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A framework for action
Define the problems you can tackle Due diligence:
Information on best practices/outcomes Design policy options in consultation with
experts, community, business, and other stakeholders
Evaluate options against criteria using best available information
Implement options with monitoring of their performance
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Best practices
Adaptation Guidebooks and Frameworks
Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide
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Example of best practices
King County, Washington: “Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments” By Center for Science in the Earth System (The Climate Impacts
Group), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington & King County, Washington
A pragmatic step-by-step guide for local & regional governments
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King County: suggested steps
Scope the Climate Change Impacts to Your Major Sectors Collect and Review Important Climate Information
How is Climate Expected to Change in Your Region? What are the Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Your Region?
Build and Maintain Support to Prepare for Climate Change Identify or Cultivate a “Champion” for Preparedness Identify and Understand Your Audience for Outreach Develop a Preparedness Message Spread the Message
Build Your Climate Change Preparedness Team How to Select Members and a leader for Your Team Prepare the Team’s Agenda
Conduct a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Review and Supplement Important Climate Information Conduct Your Climate Sensitivity Analysis Evaluate Adaptive Capacity for Systems in Your Planning Areas
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King County steps continued
Conduct a Climate Change Risk Assessment Assess Your Climate Change Risks Establish Your List of Priority Planning Areas
Set Preparedness Goals and Develop Your Preparedness Plan Establish a Vision and Guiding Principles for a Climate Resilient
Community along with Preparedness Goals Identify Potential Preparedness Actions Assess your Actions against Criteria (effectiveness, efficiency,
robustness under scenarios, equity, precautionary principle, flexibility) Select and Prioritize Preparedness Actions
Implement Your Preparedness Plan Ensure that You Have the Right Implementation Tools Manage Uncertainty and Risk
Measure Your Progress, Review your Assumptions, and Update Your Plan
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Illustration of template for risk & policy analysis
Planning area
Current and expected stress
Climate change impacts on system
Conse-quences of impact
High (H)
Medium (M)
Low (L)
Probability of impact
Estimate of risk to the system
Adaptation options
Road operation & maintenance
Pavement buckling on asphalt due to extreme heat events
More road maintenance required more often
M-H: Potholes affect public safety, road maintenance costs, travel restrictions, costs of goods, may affect 55% of city’s roads
High: more extreme heat events expected
M-H: assessment for all risks and expected outcomes
Search for more resilient materials
Ban heavy vehicles
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Canadian initiatives: planning
Westbank, BC has included climate change in their Landscape Unit Water Management Plan
The town of Vanderhoof, BC is engaged in a vulnerability assessment pilot project
Alberta’s Water for Life Strategy addresses climate change impacts in areas that are currently water-stressed
British Columbia’s Future Forests Ecosystem Initiative incorporates climate change adaptation into forest management.
Research and networking have been supported through a range of federal, provincial and territorial programs.
MORE TALK THAN ACTION……..
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City of Richmond -Climate Change Response
Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide
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Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide
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Canadian initiatives: policies Municipalities along the Quebec eastern North
Shore have introduced regulations to limit development in zones vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding.
Greater use of water meters to reduce water consumption in cities & irrigation districts (e.g., Kelowna, Sudbury, Moncton, BC’s WaterSmart plan
Smog and heat-health warning systems have been implemented in Toronto and Montréal.
New Brunswick’s Coastal Areas Protection Policy establishes set-backs for permanent structures.
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Example: Manitoba Actions Red River Floodway expanded from 1 in 90 to 1 in
700 year flood Integrated Watershed Management Planning Northern Winter Roads, relocated from ice
crossings to land for safety and sustainability East Side Lake Winnipeg Land Planning, traditional
knowledge to inform adaptive decision making Emergency Measures Office, municipal emergency
management plans Provincial Land Use Planning Policies updated to
include provisions for adaptation
Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide information.
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Manitoba Overland flood protectionExisting Upgraded to 1 in 700
yr.
Blue (Surface and overland),
Brown (Basement and sewer) Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide
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Climate adaptation policy: lessons learned…so far…
Establish integrative office with representation from across ministries/agencies (with funding and powers and education role – within bureaucracy and outreach)
Need to strengthen capacity in all related agencies
Strategic planning & early action vital to minimize costs
Early & continued public and business engagement with local jurisdictions to help set priorities; shared governance better than top down decrees; partnerships important
Articulate limitations to stakeholders so don’t ramp up expectations
Look for synergies with development activities – build better & smarter
Tough to get attention due to competing demands for time & $
Decision making is complex (at any level): e.g., inconsistent policy and regulations
Need long-term planning, not one-off projects; attach to a sustainability plan
Establish liability for poor planning; accountability framework for public and private entities