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Air Quality and Its Effects:

The California ExperienceJohn A. Romley, Ph.D.

Research Assistant ProfessorPrice School of Public Policy

May 1, 2014

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Air quality has been an important storyfor much of California

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Los Angeles has been the lead character

One coping strategy for a 1955 event

City Hall on a good day in 2013

City Hall during LA’s first “smog attack” in 1943

Sources: LA Times; LA Weekly

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Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science

Quasi-experimental

evidence

Avoidance behavior

Beyond short-term health effects

• Like pollution levels, the health status of individuals varies by location, and is hard to measure– Health effects of pollution are overstated, if sicker people

live in areas with more pollution– Neidell (2004) analyzed changes in asthma hospitalizations in

LA zip codes as pollution varied randomly month by month…– …and found that reductions in carbon monoxide from 1992

through 1998 reduced admissions among children by 5-14%

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Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science

Quasi-experimental

evidence

Avoidance behavior

Beyond short-term health effects

• Individuals may take actions to minimize effects– Measured health effects reflect actual exposure– Unavoidable exposure results from unpredictable arrivals at

the LA port, and from runway idling at LAX due to system delays (Neidell & Moretti, 2006; Schlenker & Walker, 2011)

– Such exposure leads to much more severe health effects… …which suggests that avoidance behavior can be quite costly

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Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science

Quasi-experimental

evidence

Avoidance behavior

Beyond short-term health effects

• Childhood asthma is associated with obesity in young adults (Fletcher et al., 2010)

• 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 outdoors leads to 6% decrease in productivity of indoor fruit packers in northern California (Chang et al., 2014)

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1940s 1980s 1990s1950s

California has led the United States in clearing the air

1943:1st smog

attack

1971:National air standards

1940s 1960s 1970s1950s

Federal

State and local

2000:Fresno

Asthmatic Children’s

Environment Study1947:

LA countypollution

district

1998:Diesel emissionsfoundtoxic

1969:Air standardsset

1966:Auto emission

standards1967:CA Air Resources Board1952:

Science of smog

known

1960:Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Board

1975:2 way catalytic converter

1990:Clean

fuel, cars

1984:Vehicle

inspections

1988:Clean

Air Act

1970:Clean Air Act Amendments

1977:Review of standards required

1990:Clean Air Act Amendments

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The progress is striking

Ozone

Sources: SCAQMD; CARB

CO reductions through 1990s saved the lives of 1,000 infants (Currie & Neidell, 2004)

PM

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Despite this progress, air pollution remains

a significant problem for the state

Ozone non-attainment areas

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Environmental pressures grow and grow

Source: CARB

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Air quality as an element of social justice

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My work indicates that disparities in exposure interact with other factors

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Black Hispanic Asian /Pacif icIslander

Disparities in Excess-Pollution-Related Hospital Events: All Hospital Events

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20

30

40

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Black Hispanic Asian /Pacif icIslander

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Total AttributableRisk

Contribution ofDisparities inPollution Exposure

Contribution ofDisparities in Non-Pollution EventRates

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Source: Hackbarth, Romley and Goldman (2011)

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• Diesel fuel

• Goods movement

• Ports of Long Beach / LA

• Low emissions vehicles

• Greenhouse gas emissions

• Solar power subsidies

• Diesel fuel• Goods movement• Ports of Long Beach / LA

• Low emissions vehicles

• Greenhouse gas emissions

• Solar power subsidies

In response, California continues to advance the story on U.S. environmental policy

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Heavy transport is a driver of air quality in the state

• SCAQMD (2007): In LA basin, trucks, rail and ships generate– 10% of PM– 24% of NOx– 73% of SOx

• Perez et al. (2009): Proximity to road traffic causes 9% of child asthma cases in Long Beach and 6% in Riverside– Ship emissions

account for 21% of bronchitis cases

Source: CARB

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• CARB adopted low-sulfur diesel standard in 2003– Many large diesel vehicles have been mandated to

install filters, upgrade engines

• State developed a Goods Movement Action Plan over 2005 - 2007– One key goal is to reduce diesel PM emissions by

85% by 2020– $1 billion in funding from Proposition 1B– Benefit-cost ratio put at anywhere from 3:1 to 8:1

• Ports of Long Beach / LA created clean air plan in 2006– Diesel PM decreased 75% from 2005 – 2011– Port modernization is doubling cargo capacity,

with a controversial new railyard

Ongoing developments in heavy transport

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Looking back, and ahead

• California has made substantial progress in improving air quality

• Evidence of health effects at pollution levels below current standards continues to accumulate

• Good physical and social science are needed to identify policy options & understand their costs and benefits…

• …and good policy decisions are needed to advance the public interest