1 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1 Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere OUTLINE • Reducing Structural Error Reducing Structural Error – Better use of existing data – Multiple analysis teams – Multiple observing systems • Data Homogeneity Data Homogeneity – GCOS principles – Benchmark or Reference Observing Systems – Homogeneous reanalysis (including model simulations) • Consistency among variables Consistency among variables – Developing data sets for related variables – Consistency of changes and variations of related variables • Understanding Understanding – Comparisons of model simulations and observations – Clarify forcing uncertainties versus model uncertainties
Transcript
1AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
– Better use of existing data– Multiple analysis teams– Multiple observing systems
• Data HomogeneityData Homogeneity– GCOS principles– Benchmark or Reference Observing Systems– Homogeneous reanalysis (including model simulations)
• Consistency among variablesConsistency among variables– Developing data sets for related variables – Consistency of changes and variations of related variables
• UnderstandingUnderstanding – Comparisons of model simulations and observations– Clarify forcing uncertainties versus model uncertainties
CCSP 1.1 Recommendation for Improved Climate Data Records and Understanding of Climate
COA Program DescriptionCOA Program Description
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3AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
USCRN Network May, 2006
U.S. Climate Reference Network
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16AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
USCRN Stations Outside of Contiguous Lower - 48 States
Currently deployed:• Alaska – 4 (Barrow,
Fairbanks, Sitka, St. Paul)
• Hawaii - 2 (Mauna Loa & Waiakea, Big Island)
Pending deployment:• America Samoa (Sept 2006)
USCRN Alaska LocationsSingle sites installed at end FY 05 (2): Pt. Barrow & Fairbanks
GCOS single sites installed: FY 05 (2): Sitka & St. Paul Island
USCRN Hawaiian Locations
Single sites installed at end FY 05 (2): Mauna Loa Summit, and Waiakea
Daily historic Troposphere reanalysis from surface pressure observations Example: “post-Christmas Snowstorm” of Dec. 1947 (Arrows point to same 500 hPa features)
Original 1947 Air Weather Service Analysis
Reanalysis: Surface Pressure & Ensemble Filter
Reanalysis: Full NCEP Assimilation System
• Data assimilation system using only sfc pressure data
• Could produce a reanalysis of daily extratropical circulation from the late 19th century to present.
• International Surface Pressure Data Bank
• 21,702 land and marine stations
Data HomogeneityData HomogeneityReanalysis and Observed Simulation Experiments
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18AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
Consistency Among VariablesConsistency Among Variables
– Developing data sets for related variables – Consistency of changes and variations of
related variables
19AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
1958-2001 Trend:
0.45 mm/decade
1988-2001 Trend:
0.53 mm/decade (ERA-40)
0.51 mm/decade (SSMI)
From Wentz (2005)
Trends in Vapor
from ERA-40 (Model)
from SSMI (Satellite)
Consistency Among VariablesConsistency Among Variables
20AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
Contributes to Annual TotalHeavy Precip Days (>95th percentile)
Daily Intensity(Total Annual Precip / # of Days with Precip)
Alexander et al. (2005)
Consistency Among VariablesConsistency Among Variables
21AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
UnderstandingUnderstanding
– Comparisons of model simulations and
observations– Clarify forcing uncertainties versus model
uncertainties
22AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
ObservationsObservations
ObservationsObservations
UnderstandingUnderstanding
The Relationships
Between Tropical Temperature Changes at
Earth’s Surface and in Two
Different Layers of the
Troposphere
Modeled and Observed Global-Average Temperature Trends
Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropics (20oS-20oN)
UnderstandingUnderstanding
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24AISC Workshop
May 16-18, 2006Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere
UnderstandingUnderstanding
• Display of upper-air in-situ data and NCEP North America
Regional Reanalysis Model
• Analysis can improves both models and observations:
• Model background provide QC for observational records
• Observations can provide improvements to models
Data Access to Models & ObservationsIntercomparison: Weather Models &
Observational record
CCSP 1.1 Recommendation for Improved Climate Data Records and Understanding of Climate
