11

Applications of Applications of Habitat Supply Modelling Habitat Supply Modelling

to Land Use Decisionsto Land Use DecisionsChase, BC. November 2004Chase, BC. November 2004

22

Applications of Applications of Habitat Supply Modelling Habitat Supply Modelling

to Strategic Land Use Decisionsto Strategic Land Use Decisions

Key principlesKey principles

A few process points for A few process points for Strategic Land Use PlanningStrategic Land Use Planning

Needs of planning tables, Needs of planning tables, modellers, and governmentmodellers, and government

Conclusions / Recommendations Conclusions / Recommendations

Issues / Questions for discussion Issues / Questions for discussion

33

HSM and Strategic Land Use Decisions:HSM and Strategic Land Use Decisions:Key PrinciplesKey Principles

HS information needed in timely HS information needed in timely fashion, accessible formats by fashion, accessible formats by TableTable

May influence land use zoning May influence land use zoning (allowable resource use) and (allowable resource use) and general management direction general management direction within zonewithin zone

Success will depend on spatializing Success will depend on spatializing resource layers, modelling base resource layers, modelling base case forward in space and time, case forward in space and time, thus enabling scenario comparisonthus enabling scenario comparison

HS information unlikely to HS information unlikely to influence land use decisions if not influence land use decisions if not available, accessible, acceptable available, accessible, acceptable to, and adaptable by Tableto, and adaptable by Table

44

HSM and Land Use Planning ProcessHSM and Land Use Planning Process

Land Use Plan initiationGovernment initiates land use planning process, establishes GTT/PTT* and local planning table

Issue identificationGTT/PTT and planning table identify and confirm issues, set objectives of planning process

Initiation of modelling projectsGTT/PTT initiates contracts, TOR for modelling projects.

Model developmentModellers begin building models; develop modelling assumptions with topic experts; developing economic and environmental indicatorsGTT/PTT collaborates on model

assumptions, finalization of indicators

Base Case AnalysisScenario development

by planning table

Base Case analysis;Analysis of alternate scenarios; Environmental risk assessment;

Interpretation of resultsby modellers

Presentation of Base case and alternate scenario analysis and

interpretationTo planning table by GTT and modellers

RecommendationsFrom planning table to government

Options package, including SEA/ERA

GTT and AST prepares package for government consideration

Land Use Decision

by government

* GTT: Government Technical Team PTT: Process Technical Team

Data assembly Modellers identify data needs, enter into data sharing agreements with government, gather and assemble data

Government to Government Consultation

55

NCLRMP included NCLRMP included “State of the Art” “State of the Art” data and modelling; data and modelling; scenario comparison scenario comparison immediately immediately available to planning available to planning tabletable

CCLRMP ESA CCLRMP ESA looked at looked at environmental environmental values,values,criticized in part criticized in part for lacking local for lacking local inputinput

HGLUP Key HGLUP Key difference from difference from Central Coast: local, Central Coast: local, detailed information detailed information but persistent data but persistent data errorserrors

66

What do Planning Tables Need?What do Planning Tables Need?

Need to broadly understand purpose Need to broadly understand purpose of model, what it can and can’t do, of model, what it can and can’t do, general assumptions – “buy-in”general assumptions – “buy-in”

Need timely outputs coincident with Need timely outputs coincident with appropriate planning phaseappropriate planning phase

Need clearly communicated Need clearly communicated interpretation of model outputsinterpretation of model outputs

Need communication that helps the Need communication that helps the Table integrate products with host Table integrate products with host of other inputsof other inputs

Need to have ‘ownership’ of Need to have ‘ownership’ of scenariosscenarios

77

Ensure products are Ensure products are useableuseable

88

What do Modellers need?What do Modellers need?

Appropriate timelines:Appropriate timelines:

Increasingly complex and huge amounts of Increasingly complex and huge amounts of information – less time to process and information – less time to process and synthesize for Table presentationsynthesize for Table presentation

Pressure to fit within ‘political’ timeframesPressure to fit within ‘political’ timeframes

Timelines need to recognize likelihood of Timelines need to recognize likelihood of the unexpected occurring the unexpected occurring

Difficulties in timing and integration with Difficulties in timing and integration with other planning initiativesother planning initiatives

Need to ensure adequate time and Need to ensure adequate time and presentation opportunities that avoid presentation opportunities that avoid misinterpretation or loss of critical misinterpretation or loss of critical informationinformation

99

What do Modellers need?What do Modellers need?Data supply, quality and consistency:Data supply, quality and consistency:

Most data are not ‘general’ – may not be Most data are not ‘general’ – may not be useful or fully useful for this purposeuseful or fully useful for this purpose

Data not all in one place, may be managed Data not all in one place, may be managed inconsistently or not easily availableinconsistently or not easily available

Data not standardized or “cleaned”– effort Data not standardized or “cleaned”– effort required to prepare for modelrequired to prepare for model

Better, updated data required in many Better, updated data required in many instances, e.g. roads, recent harvestinginstances, e.g. roads, recent harvesting

General point: inefficient to reinvent ways of General point: inefficient to reinvent ways of addressing varying data sets for every addressing varying data sets for every modelmodel

1010

What does Government need?What does Government need?

1.Independent, 1.Independent, best available best available sciencescience

2. Buy-in by 2. Buy-in by planning table, planning table, interest groups interest groups and decision and decision makersmakers

1111

What does Government need?What does Government need?

3. Clear goals and objectives for 3. Clear goals and objectives for modelingmodeling

4. Better understanding of 4. Better understanding of models and model developmentmodels and model development

5. Socio-economic analysis5. Socio-economic analysis

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Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations

CIT Experience CIT Experience http://www.citbc.org/http://www.citbc.org/(paraphrased for HSM from Cortex document):(paraphrased for HSM from Cortex document):

1. Identify client, purpose, desired outcomes of 1. Identify client, purpose, desired outcomes of projectproject

2. Focus analysis at appropriate scale2. Focus analysis at appropriate scale

3. Build on existing info, local knowledge3. Build on existing info, local knowledge

4. Follow iterative process in refining scope of 4. Follow iterative process in refining scope of projectproject

5. Define project integration requirements5. Define project integration requirements

6. Establish data sharing protocols at outset of 6. Establish data sharing protocols at outset of projectproject

7. Separate political aspects of managing the 7. Separate political aspects of managing the project from scientific/technicalproject from scientific/technical

8. Establish clear TOR8. Establish clear TOR

9. Ensure good project management through expert 9. Ensure good project management through expert team, written documentation, work plans, team, written documentation, work plans, effective communications, peer review, etc.effective communications, peer review, etc.

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Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations

Provincial Habitat Supply Modelling Strategy Provincial Habitat Supply Modelling Strategy 2002: Strategic Objective 4:2002: Strategic Objective 4:

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/silstrat/habitat/http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/silstrat/habitat/habitat-home.htmhabitat-home.htm

To organize and maintain the modelling To organize and maintain the modelling ‘toolbox’ including development of modelling ‘toolbox’ including development of modelling protocols and standards to ensure protocols and standards to ensure consistency, quality and broad access, consistency, quality and broad access, including:including:

– Model evaluation and documentation Model evaluation and documentation protocolsprotocols

– Protocol and standard reporting format Protocol and standard reporting format for the field testing and validation of for the field testing and validation of model forecasts (indicators)model forecasts (indicators)

– Protocols for organizing species-habitat Protocols for organizing species-habitat relationship information and natural or relationship information and natural or managed ecosystem succession managed ecosystem succession informationinformation

– Protocol for interpretation, presentation, Protocol for interpretation, presentation, and application of model resultsand application of model results

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Issues and Questions for DiscussionIssues and Questions for Discussion

1. Information needs:1. Information needs:

What information do we need in our What information do we need in our inventories to support habitat supply inventories to support habitat supply modelling?modelling?

How do we improve access to information, How do we improve access to information, and consistency and quality of data?and consistency and quality of data?

Should seamless forest cover (VRI) and Should seamless forest cover (VRI) and ecosystem mapping (PEM) for the whole ecosystem mapping (PEM) for the whole province be a priority?province be a priority?

How should we be incorporating TEK and How should we be incorporating TEK and local knowledge into HSM?local knowledge into HSM?

How should other important influences on How should other important influences on habitat useability like human density habitat useability like human density (settlement and recreational user days), (settlement and recreational user days), livestock density, road density, etc. be livestock density, road density, etc. be inventoried and factored into HSM?inventoried and factored into HSM?

Should there be standard protocols for Should there be standard protocols for model testing and validation?model testing and validation?

1515

Issues and Questions for DiscussionIssues and Questions for Discussion

2. Socio-economic 2. Socio-economic analysis:analysis:

How do we bring How do we bring non-timber SEA non-timber SEA considerations into considerations into integrated models integrated models

(e.g. heli-skiing, (e.g. heli-skiing, backcountry backcountry recreation, recreation, increased/decreased increased/decreased user days, mineral, user days, mineral, O/G and IPP O/G and IPP development)development) ??

What kind of models What kind of models can address SEA?can address SEA?

1616

Issues and Questions for DiscussionIssues and Questions for Discussion

3. Ecological 3. Ecological valuation:valuation:

How do we address How do we address ecological valuation in ecological valuation in models? (e.g. ecosystem models? (e.g. ecosystem services; the value of services; the value of natural capital, air and natural capital, air and water quality, greenhouse water quality, greenhouse gas reduction, aesthetic gas reduction, aesthetic and spiritual values).and spiritual values).

How should ‘benefits’ be How should ‘benefits’ be

addressed? (SARA addressed? (SARA requires that ‘benefits’ be requires that ‘benefits’ be addressed along with SEA addressed along with SEA in recovery plans)in recovery plans)

How do we evaluate the How do we evaluate the ‘priceless’?‘priceless’?

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Issues and Questions for DiscussionIssues and Questions for Discussion

4. How should models address cumulative 4. How should models address cumulative effects?effects?

5. How do we communicate model products?5. How do we communicate model products?

– How do we effectively manage and How do we effectively manage and communicate model outputs to planning communicate model outputs to planning tables and decision-makers? How can we tables and decision-makers? How can we present unbiased, scientific information in present unbiased, scientific information in comprehensible manner?comprehensible manner?

– Would some degree of standardization be Would some degree of standardization be useful?useful?

6. Are there lost opportunities?6. Are there lost opportunities?

– Are model products/outputs being used to full Are model products/outputs being used to full potential?potential?

– Could they be used to develop monitoring strategies Could they be used to develop monitoring strategies to test model assumptions over time and apply to test model assumptions over time and apply adaptive management regimes?adaptive management regimes?

– Should there be a repository for model outputs?Should there be a repository for model outputs?

– Are appropriate resources directed towards this?Are appropriate resources directed towards this?

– Is it efficient to ‘end the life’ of a model after Is it efficient to ‘end the life’ of a model after planning process is over?planning process is over?

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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Andy HallAndy Hall

Melissa HadleyMelissa Hadley

Rachel HoltRachel Holt

Don MorganDon Morgan

Andy MackinnonAndy Mackinnon

Debbie NarverDebbie Narver

Gary ReayGary Reay

Glenn SutherlandGlenn Sutherland