1

Beyond California Water Plan Beyond California Water Plan Update 2005Update 2005

California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum

Annual Meeting, March 3rd, 2005

2

Objectives for PresentationObjectives for Presentation

● Highlight goals for tools and data● Show accomplishments● Describe possible screening approach● Demo of EXTEND software● Next steps

3

Goals for Analytical Goals for Analytical Tools and DataTools and Data

4

GoalsGoals

● Describe expectations for evaluation.● Inventory and document data and tools

consistently.● Apply existing data and tools for Update

2010.● Develop a long term plan for improvement.● Coordinate with CALFED Program.

5

Desired End-ProductDesired End-Product

● Evaluate multiple future conditions (Scenarios and Responses)

● Explore wide range of benefits and costs (Evaluation Criteria)

● Support integrated regional planning● Support statewide planning

6

AccomplishmentsAccomplishments

7

Recent ProgressRecent Progress

● Collaborated with David Groves to quantify 3 scenarios of 2030 water demand

● Developed conceptual framework● Held workshop with Modeling Work Group● Submitted coordinated funding proposals to

CBDA Science Program ● Documenting existing tools● Participating in CALSIM model

improvements

8

Developed Conceptual Developed Conceptual FrameworkFramework

● Can be applied at different spatial scales● Describes complex system using simple

categories● Illustrates inputs, outputs, and relationships● Draft HTML version available on CD

9

Water Management

System

Water Management

System

Geophysical Parameters

Geophysical Parameters

Evaluation Criteria

(Economic, Management, Societal)

Evaluation Criteria

(Economic, Management, Societal)

Human and Environmental

Water Demands

Human and Environmental

Water Demands

Management Strategies

Management Strategies

Demand Drivers

Demand Drivers

Conceptual Framework for Assessing Conceptual Framework for Assessing Water Resources and ManagementWater Resources and Management

Water Management Objectives

Water Management Objectives

OrganizationOrganization DefinitionsDefinitionsOverviewOverview

10

Developed Tool DescriptionsDeveloped Tool Descriptions

● Scope and Application● Conceptual basis● Theoretical basis● Numerical basis● Data● Data management● Software

11

Completed Tool DescriptionsCompleted Tool Descriptions

● CALSIM● CALAG● LCPSIM● IGSM2● SIMETAW● CUP● ETAW-CAWU

● DSM2● CALVIN● IMPLAN● UPLAN● LAWS● CU

http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/b160/workgroups/modelinggroup.htm

12

Possible Screening Possible Screening ApproachApproach

13

Water Management

System

Water Management

System

Geophysical Parameters

Geophysical Parameters

Evaluation Criteria

(Economic, Management, Societal)

Evaluation Criteria

(Economic, Management, Societal)

Human and Environmental

Water Demands

Human and Environmental

Water Demands

Management Strategies

Management Strategies

Demand Drivers

Demand Drivers

Conceptual Framework for Assessing Conceptual Framework for Assessing Water Resources and ManagementWater Resources and Management

Water Management Objectives

Water Management Objectives

OrganizationOrganization DefinitionsDefinitionsOverviewOverview

14

Need to Represent the Water Management System at Different Spatial Scales

From Statewide …

15

…To Hydrologic Region or Planning Area

16

Using the Flow Diagram …Using the Flow Diagram …

17

… … to Define Data & to Define Data & RelationshipsRelationships

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB

5.1Service Area

WATER DEPOSITS: SURFACE WATER: 27.6 GROUNDWATER: 17.0 RECYL & DESAL: 0.0 TRANSFERS: Not Applicable

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF APPLIED WATER: AG: 21.8 WETLANDS: 0.6 URBAN: 2.6

WATER USE (APPLIED): AGRICULTURAL: 31.5 WETLANDS: 1.3 URBAN: 8.4 TOTAL 41.1

INCIDENTAL E & ET AG RETURN FLOWS:

0.3

AG & WETLANDS RETURN FLOWS:

13.1

Return Flow within

22

39to 43

3738

CONVEYANCE LOSSES:URBAN: 0.4 AG: 1.1 WETLANDS: 0.0

CONVEYANCE LOSS TO E & ET: URBAN: 0.4 AG: 0.8 WETLANDS: 0.0

CONVEYANCE LOSS TO RETURN FLOWS: URBAN: 0 AG: 0.0453 WETLANDS: 0

CONVEYANCE LOSS TO SEEPAGE: URBAN: 0.0 AG: 0.3 WETLANDS: 0.0 MEXICO: 0.0

51

24

EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF APPLIED WATER, PRECIPITATION AND CONVEYANCE LOSSES:

Insufficient Data17

18

47

49

18

Using the Best Available Using the Best Available Analytical Tools and Data to Analytical Tools and Data to

Quantify Flow DiagramQuantify Flow Diagram

● Published data and surveys● Estimates derived from simple

relationships● Estimates derived from models

19

Using an Analytical EnvironmentUsing an Analytical Environment

● Developing pilot of flow diagram using EXTEND software package

● Features Transparent and relatively easy for others to

review and use Can use in “real-time” interactions with

stakeholders Customize to include relationships from best

current knowledge Explore different possible outcomes

20

Demo of EXTEND SoDemo of EXTEND Softwareftware

21

Next Steps – Update 2010Next Steps – Update 2010

● Prioritize key components of flow diagram● Define / refine key theoretical relationships ● Quantify detailed scenario factors● Develop evaluation criteria details● Develop response package details● Develop work plan for detailed approach

22

Next Steps - Beyond Update 2010Next Steps - Beyond Update 2010

● Implement long-term plan to improve analytical tools (detailed approach)

● Fill data gaps● Develop Water Plan Information Exchange

(Water PIE)

23

SummarySummary

● We are working to accomplish specific goals for tools and data

● Good progress has been made● Much more to be done● Need to meet soon and often with Water

Plan Advisory Committee

24