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Climate change and territorial effects

on regions and local economies

in Europe

Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund)

ESPON Internal SeminarLiège, BelgiumNov. 17, 2010

ESPON Climate

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Reminder: Overall methodology of the project

Exposure

Impacts

A

B

C

D

A

B

C

D

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B

C

D

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B

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D

Physical Environ. Econ. Social Cultural

ThematicImpact Maps

Vulnerability

Aggregate Impact

AggregateImpact Map

Aggregate Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive Capacity Map

Mean Temp.

Frost

Days Mean

Evapor.

Heavy Rainfall Days

Summer Days

Winter Precip.

Summer Precip.

Snow Cover Days

A

B

C

D

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B

C

D

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B

C

D

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D

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Economic Resources

Insti-tutions

Infrastructure

Knowledge+ Awareness Technology

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability Map

Aggregate Vulnerability

Aggregate Sensitivity

Sensitivity

A

B

C

D

Aggregate Exposure

River Floods

Sea Level Rise

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B

C

D

Physical

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B

C

D

Envir.

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D

Econ.

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D

Social

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D

Cultural

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Aggregated climate change exposure

Aggregated changes in climate stimuli are more severe in Scandinavia, the Alpine region and parts of South-eastern Europe.

Range of values between 1.14 and 3.25 – some regions are three times as much exposed as others.

This does not necessarily mean that the vulnerability of Scandinavian regions is particular high.

When sensitivity and adaptive capacity come in, the picture will considerably change.

The Mediterranean area is considered to be particularly vulnerable due to its sensitivity.

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Triggered effect: river flooding

Maps shows projected changes in flood hazard for 1:100 flood event till 2100 and is based on JRC data

Complex patter: flood hazard does not necessarily increase due to climate change

Thus, a differentated tailor-made policy response is needed

High uncertanity calls for flexible no-regret strategies

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Methodology

Sources:

G lobal sea level rise: Vermeer/Rahmstorff 2009

Regional adjustment: Satellite altimetry data 1992-2009

Storm surge heights: DIVA

Triggered effect: Sea level rise

Regional storm surge height (100-year event)

Projected global sea level rise

Regional sea level rise adjustment

Current mean sea level

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Example for social sensitivity: Population changes 2005 – 2100

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Absolute numbers (indexed) Relative share (indexed)

Population above 65 years in 2100

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Population > 65y (abs. & rel.) Exposure: Summer days

Combining sensitivity and exposure

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Mainly affected regions:

• Mediterranean cities, Parts of Southern Italy, Northern Iberian regions, Southern Germany, Urbanized areas in SE Europe

• Adaptive capacity building is needed mainly on the local level:

• Strengthening coping capacity

• Suitable urban planning, i.e. protection and extension of open spaces in inner cities

• New architecture• Awareness building, because

existing building stock is the main problem; thus individual actions are needed

Impact: Population above 65y affected by heat events

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Parts of adaptive capacity: awareness, ability and action

Awareness indicators used:•Computer skills•Education expenditure

Ability Indicators used:•R&D expenditure•Patent applications•Road density•Hospital beds

Action indicators used:•Government effectiveness•National adaptation strategies•GDP per capita•Age dependence= adaptive capacity

+ +

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Aggregate adaptive capacity

Average of 10 indicators

Adaptice capacity is low mainly in Southern and Eastern Europe

These regions seems tobe less able to cope with and adapt to climate change

These regions are mostly economically less competetive than other parts of Europe

The additional challenge of climate change endangers territorial cohesion

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For main adaptation objectives:

Building adaptation capacity: relates directly towards a measure that builds or enhances government or societal awareness about adaptation, builds capacity to enable action.

Reduction of risk and sensitivity: Actions can be undertaken to reduce the risk of damage and disruption, and reduce sensitivity of people, property, natural resources, and ecology to changed climatic conditions

Increased coping capacity: during extreme or damaging events (response to extreme events).

Capitalization on changed climatic conditions: some benefit might arise from any changed climatic condition. In this case an action might be undertaken to capitalize on such change.

Source: Massey/ Bergsma: Assessing adaptation in 29 European Countries. Amsterdam 2008.

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Greenhouse gas emissions / mitigation capacities

Europe 2020 report`s priority Sustainable growth: combating climate change through a significant reduction of emissions and the full exploitation of the potential of new technologies in order to also strengthen EU economies' resilience to climate risks, and the capacity for disaster prevention and response

Indicators used:•Carbon sinks•GDP•Education expenditure, policies and measures•R&D expenditure

Low mitigation capacities mainly in Eastern Europe, but also Germany

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• “While the need for co-ordination and integration across sectors, scales and levels is growing, the capacities to respond are frequently shrinking […]. While it is generally recognised that the role of spatial planning for climate mitigation and adaptation should be strengthened, the practice is not very well developed as yet.” (PEER Report No. 2: Climate Policy Integration, Coherence and Governance, p. 60).

• Some recommendations:– Comprehensive strategies are needed that address mitigation and

adaption together with other challenges such as demographic change (DEMIFER), resource shortages (ReRisk) and urban growth (EU-LUPA)

– Climate proofing should be integrated in SEA– Concepts of resilience and no regret have to be operationalized for

planning purposes– Dealing with uncertainty calls for flexible concepts which can be

frequently adapted according to the results of a continuous monitoring of given vulnerability.

First response to policy questions

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Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and local communities are able to do

Task MilestonesPotential of spatial planning

Description

Assessment of long-term consequences

Assessment and appraisal of climate change impacts on the human-environmental-system

fair

Possible based on regional impact studies, planning has to have at hand. A strength of comprehensive planning is the traditionally integrated view on different change processes (demography, economy, environment, climate)

Climate proofing

Identification of interaction between land-uses and the changing climate

good

Such assessments can easily be integrated in the strategic environmental assessment which is obligatory for any spatial plan or program

New guiding principles (such as “resilience”) suitable for the ongoing global change

good

The concept of resilience is almost in line with existing planning principles like decentralised concentration and could therefore easily adopted in planning practice

Avoidance of non-adapted developments

good

This is in focus of planning which is very much about future developments. The effectiveness of actions depends partly from the existing regulatory framework (zoning instruments)

Adaptation of existing spatial structures (settlements, infrastructure)

poor

Any adaptation of existing structures is hardly possible through regulatory planning due to the given private property rights. What is needed are incentives and good practices aiming at convincing private householders

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Task Milestones

Potential of spatial planning

Description

Disaster prevention

Assessment of frequency and magnitude of extreme events (exposure)

poor

That is clearly a task for specialised authorities like water management where spatial planning does not have any competence at hand

Keeping disaster prone areas free of further development

good

At least conforming planning systems have regulatory zoning instruments at hand. Keeping free of areas prone to extreme events is thereby possible

Differentiated decisions on land-use: Acceptable land-use types according to the given risk

fair

Almost possible, but not effective with regard to existing settlement structures

Adaptation of existing building structures

fair

Almost impossible though regulatory measures due to property rights. Suitable approaches base on incentives and communication

Relocation/retreat from threatened areas

poor

Again in conflict with property rights. Full recompensation is normally needed which fails mostly due to the lack of financial resources. Possible in areas with shrinking population where the existing building stock will be (partly) deconstructed based on planning strategies (see Eastern Germany)

Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and local communities are able to do - II

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Draft Final Report: End of February 2011Final report: End of May 2011

Comparative study on nine EU countries aims at recommendations for strengthening the role of spatial planning in context of territorially differentiated adaptation strategies.

Results are available in English: http://www.bbsr.bund.de/cln_016/nn_21684/BBSR/EN/Publications/BMVBS/Online/2010/DL__ON212010,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/DL_ON212010.pdf

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Thank you for your attention

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Stefan Greivingstefan.greiving@tu-dortmund.de