1 COPYRIGHT 2018, LUBES’N’GREASES MAGAZINE. REPRODUCED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE MAY 2018 ISSUE

T he marine industry is sailingtoward a period of unprecedentedchange. The shifting businessenvironment, evolution of

engine designs, expanding use of APIGroup II base stocks and new envi-ronmental regulations are drivinglubricant development and increasedcomplexity. With the InternationalMaritime Organization’s marine fuelsulfur cap looming in 2020, there islimited time left to prepare.The shipping sector has witnessed con-

solidations, mergers and establishment ofshipping alliances. World trade has beenflat in recent years, with slow growthprospects despite signs of trade andgoods transport picking up. Overcapacityremains in the shipping industry becausethe number of new ships being built out-paces the scrapping of old ones, and newones tend to be larger.This current environment of the ship-

ping business is pressuring operators toeconomize and aggressively reduceoperating expenses, including fuel and

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SulfurCap

Loomsfor

MarineLubes

BY DICK WOLPERT

Photo: Suphanat - Fotolia

lubricant consumption. Aside from a trend toward slow-

steaming and reduced loads to save onfuel consumption, newer enginedesigns are further enhancing fuel effi-ciency, which can affect combustionconditions and, consequently, the per-formance requirements for additivesand engine lubricants. Traditionally, marine lubricants have

been blended from Group I basestocks, which offer better solvency forpolar and aromatic materials, to toleratecontamination from exposure to high-sulfur fuel oils. Due to factors such asrationalization and higher productioncosts compared to Group II base oils,Group I production is being scaled

back. As Group I capacity declines andis replaced by Group II, it is importantthat lubricant and additive systems bedesigned to perform in both types ofbase oils.

Emissions Constraints The IMO has worked for decades toreduce the harmful environmentalimpacts of shipping operations, devel-oping regulations to minimize local andglobal air pollution and human healthissues. A global sulfur cap in marinefuels was first established in 2005 at 4.5percent weight of sulfur and reduced to3.5 percent in 2012.Since 2005, the designation of more

Emission Control Areas has furtherrestricted the use of heavy fuel oils inselected geographic zones, includingthe Baltic Sea, the European North Sea,North American coastal waters, theCaribbean and, most recently, a fewselected river basins in Asia-Pacific.ECAs initially had a sulfur limit of 1 per-cent by weight, but their cap has beenreduced to 0.1 percent.In 2008, the IMO established a target

date of 2020 to implement a new globallimit at 0.5 percent weight of sulfur, rec-ognizing the need to review the impactsand likely availability of low-sulfur fuels.It committed to the 2020 implementa-tion date in October 2016, though somestakeholders had expected a delay to2025 to allow further study.The IMO’s Marpol 2020 regulation

will trigger a significant reduction ofheavy fuel oil use, expanded use of dis-tillates and liquefied natural gas fuels, aswell as a “new” category of fuels intro-duced to the market to meet the 0.5percent weight of sulfur specification.Heavy fuel oils are the bulk of fuelsused in the marine industry, with theremaining 20-25 percent of the marketserved by distillates containing 0.1weight percent or less sulfur, accordingto analysis from consultancies such asWood Mackenzie, PIRA Fuel Outlookand Marine and Energy Consulting. These 0.5 percent sulfur fuels do not

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Since 2005, thedesignation ofmore Emission

Control Areas hasfurther restrictedthe use of heavy

fuel oils in selectedgeographic zones.

Industry Average Fuel Outlook

Two-stroke Marine Cylinder Lubricants OutlookBased on industry average fuel outlook.

exist today, and it’s hard to predict whatthey will look like. They could be refin-ery products with more robust sulfurremoval treatment, or they may beblends of existing heavy fuel oils withlow-sulfur distillates in ratios that yieldan aggregate of 0.5 percent sulfur.

Fuels Influence LubesIt seems reasonable to assume therewill not be a single solution and therewill be different ways to meet the IMOrequirement, such as continued use ofhigh sulfur fuel (3.5 percent or higher)in combination with effluent scrubbersas an alternate mitigation technique;converting operations to work withrefined low-sulfur fuels or blended low-sulfur fuels; and a wider use of alter-nate fuels such as liquid natural gas. The eventual selection by individual

operators will involve trade-offsamong price differentials between fuelgrades, availability of compliant fuelsand early investment in LNG enginesor scrubber-equipped vessels.Lubrication will therefore be morecomplex due to the variety of fuelsthat might be employed.The number of possible solutions to

choose from could require uniquecombinations of additives and baseoils for each operating regime. Insome cases, new additives and lubri-cant formulations will need to be com-mercialized to meet the operatingneeds of engines consuming the newfuel types. Lubricant suppliers and additive com-

panies will need to provide a broadportfolio of solutions. Chevron Oronitenotes that by 2020, there will be signifi-cant demand for lubricants designed towork with “new” hybrid blended fuelsor further refined fuels meeting the 0.5percent sulfur requirement in two-stroke crosshead engines and four-stroke trunk piston engines.

Different StrokesFor two-stroke crosshead engines, themarine cylinder lubricant runs down the

cylinder liner and is consumed with thefuel. It serves two primary functions: Itneutralizes acids to prevent corrosionand provides detergency to preventdeposit formation on the cylinder wall.When the lubricant is injected into

the cylinder, the base provided by theadditive neutralizes acids formed dur-ing combustion. Base number is a mea-sure of the acid neutralization power ofthe lubricant. For operation with heavyfuel oils (2 percent to 3.5 percentweight or higher sulfur), engine manu-facturer guidelines have called for cylin-der oils with BNs between 70 and 100,and 40 BN cylinder lubes for 1 to 2 per-cent weight of sulfur fuels. With cleaner fuels, there is lessdemand for acid neutralization, but asimple down-treat (lower BN or lowerfeed rate) will not be adequate to pre-vent engine deposits. Engine designsfor cleaner fuels or LNG operation willalso have different operating condi-tions, and the application of the typical70 BN lubricant will not be acceptableacross all operating regimes.Oronite projects that two-stroke

engines will continue to need 70 to 100BN lubricants for use in vessels withscrubbers or where cheaper 3.5 per-cent sulfur fuels are used because oflimited availability of compliant fuels.There will also be increased use ofexisting 25 and 40 BN cylinder oils thatare already used with 0.1 percent sulfurfuels or LNG fuels, because these fueltypes will be more widely used.Lubricants with 15 to 40 BN will sup-plant a significant portion of the cur-rent higher-BN cylinder lubricants in2020 as ship operators switch from pre-dominantly heavy fuel oils to hybridfuels and distillates.For four-stroke trunk piston engines,

low-sulfur fuels are in wider use alreadycompared to the two-stroke market.There will be significant uncertainty inthe TPEO market about the consistencyand quality of hybrid fuel blends ofheavy fuel oil and distillates. There could be large variation in the

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The number ofpossible solutionsto choose fromcould requireunique combina-tions of additivesand base oils foreach operatingregime.

compatibility and handling propertiesof fuels from different sources. The useof “new” hybrid fuels and operatingregimes may also increase severity orintroduce new challenges for lubricantsto address, such as cylinder liner lac-quering or oxidative stability.Four-stroke trunk piston engines will

need 20 to 60 BN TPEOs for use in ves-sels that continue to operate with 3.5percent sulfur fuels if compliant fuelsare limited, and will have higher usageof existing 5 to 20 BN products that arealready common in ships that use 0.1percent sulfur fuel or LNGs. Oroniteforecasts that 12 to 30 BN lubricants willreplace a large amount of high BN lubri-cants in four-stroke trunk pistonengines as operators switch to alternatefuels.

Tasks and Timelines for New AdditivesCommercialization of new additive andlubricant technology ultimatelydepends on formal acceptance andapproval by marine engine builders. Inthe marine industry, there are no indus-try-wide performance or analytical testsfor commercial use. OEMs requiredemonstration in the field to grantapproval of the lubricant to support theengine warranties and claims. The dura-tion of an approval field test is between4,000 and 6,000 operating hours, or sixto 12 months.There is a natural progression of

scale-up activities to screen and demon-strate lubricant formulations, startingwith laboratory bench tests using ana-lytical tools and representative benchperformance measurements designedto mimic engine and field conditions,then prototype engine testing in teststands (representing anything from afew days to weeks of operation), andfinally blending quantities of lubricanttest candidates to be used in an operat-ing commercial vessel. There are costs to supply sufficient

lubricants for the test phase, paying forperiodic field inspections, and replace-ment of spare parts. This could requireinvesting between $300,000 and$600,000 per field test.Additive and lubricant suppliers typi-

cally invest two to four years to devel-op and demonstrate product formula-tions based on existing chemistry andcommercial blending components. Ifan application requires invention ofnew chemistry for a special perfor-mance attribute, development timecould stretch four to six years.Therefore, the pre-work and develop-ment to identify new lubricant tech-nologies for the post-2020 marine fuelsulfur cap era needs to be in progressright now. �

Dick Wolpert is a marine product linespecialist at Chevron Oronite, wherehe has worked since 1997. He has ledprojects to construct facilities for com-mercial production of new chemicaladditives, including several marinedetergents in Oronite additive prod-ucts. Wolpert can be contacted atrichard.wolpert@chevron.com

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Four-stroke TPEO OutlookBased on industry average fuel outlook.