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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
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Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin and Eastern Europe
Economic, Political, and Cultural Effects of Continuous
ChangeESCP-EAP European Executive MBA,
Class of 2006Berlin, January 25, 2006
2
Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
2
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin and Eastern Europe: The Economic, Political, and Cultural Effects of Continuous ChangeI. Facts about EU
Eastern Enlargement
II. Berlin: City of East and West?
III. Outlook
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
3
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Past Enlargement
1952: F, I, D, B, NL, LUX
1973: GB, IRL, DK
1981: GR
1986: E, P
(1990: East Germany)
1995: S, SF, A
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
4
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
May 1, 2004Ten New Members: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary,
Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
5
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Surface 34%Population 28%GDP 5%Average GDP per capita 18%
EU with 27 Member states
One third of the population will live in States with a per capita GDP below 90% of the EU average - compared to 1/6 in the present EU-15
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
6
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Enlargement and Labour
Labour mobility is one of the Four Freedoms of the EU
However, some restrictions in some Member Statesfour up to seven years
regional or sectoral limitations possible
After two years, reassessment Spring 2006
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
7
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Enlargement and MoneyBenefits of enlargment largely
outweigh (financial) cost
Financial Perspecitve 2007-13 still under discussion
10 new Members need to take on the EuroMaastricht criteria apply
Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania ahead (2007?)
8
Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
8
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
II. Berlin: East meets West?• The „Hub“: A failed vision of the
90s• Trade and Aid: The city and its
neighbours• Berlin: A microcosm of Eastern
Europe?• German unification: Still
unfinished business?
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
9
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin - an East-West hub?„Berlin is in the centre again! The Western part is no longer an unhappy island within the GDR. Berlin has been redeemed from being on the edge of the free Europe. Now, finally, can the united city become the hub of political, cultural, and economic exchange within Europe. “Eberhard Diepgen, former Berlin Mayor, 20. April 1991
10
Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
10
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin - no East-West hub
• A Vision of early and mid-Nineties: Commercial, financial, and educational East-West Centre
• Competition with Vienna and Budapest and with major cities/regions in Germany
• But: Low overall export ratio (11%), plus trade deficit with e.g. Poland
• Berlin share of German exports to CEE fell from 2,28% (1995) to only 1,36 % (2004).
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
11
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin - no East-West hub• Structural problems of the city: large public sector
and high unemployment after 40 years of division• Little knowledge transfer from academia to
business: 4,25% R&D of GDP, but less patent applications (1.345 in 1995, 1.101 in 2003)
• „Berlin benefits less from Enlargement than Hamburg, Munich, Ruhr region“ (Berlin Chamber of Commerce, 2004)
• After 2004 Enlargement, no more „East-West special relations“ needed. Regional approach
12
Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
12
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin trade - some figures• Top 5 Importing countries (2004, mEUR):
– USA: 682.0 – France: 658.1– Italy: 477.8, Netherlands: 441.0, Poland: 412.1
• Top 5 Exporting countries (2004, mEUR)– France: 868.5– UK: 851.1 – USA: 759.0, Italy: 702.4, Spain: 646.2
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
13
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin - Capital of united Germany
• Since 1949, Berlin has been capital
• 1991 „capital decision“
• 1999: Government moves from Bonn to Berlin
14
Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
14
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin: „capital city“ of Germany?
• Bonn:– 2nd seat of government (10.200
staff vs. 8.800 in Berlin)
– UN city (12 programmes, 500 staff; major conferences)
• plus Frankfurt (banking, EBC), Stuttgart (car industry), Hamburg (media, port), Munich (TV), Dusseldorf (fashion) etc.
• one of the few European capitals that is not the country‘s economic centre
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
15
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin - A Multicultural Capital• On 3,3 mio. inhabitants, 450.000 (or 13,5%)
foreigners from 183 countries– only 9 UN Members not represented: Belize, Timor
Leste, Kiribati, Marshall-Islands, Mikronesia, Palau, Salomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Nauru
– 38.000 Poles - 1/3 of EU foreigners– 117.000 Turks - „largest Turkish city“ outside Turkey– 11.000 Vietnamese, 14.000 Russians, and 12.000 US-
Americans
• but less than Hamburg (15%), Cologne (18%), Munich (23%) or Frankfurt (26,5%)
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
16
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Berlin in comparison
• More populous (and bigger: 900km2!) than Paris, Warsaw, Budapest, and Prague
• But: Less students (40 per 1.000 inhabitants) than Prague (62), Budapest (65), Paris (142) or Warsaw (165)
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
17
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
III. Outlook - An Attempt
• The City: Becoming Metropolitan?• Germany: Federalism and Reform• Europe: Enlargement continues
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Cornelius Adebahr
ESCP-EAPEuropean
Executive MBA
Berlin,25.01.2006
18
Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe
Thank you for your interest
and good luck!Cornelius Brökelmann
Political ConsultantBerlin, Germany