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Dealing with Climate Change
Dr Jan WrightParliamentary Commissioner
for the Environment
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Outline
1. Climate change science and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2. Dealing with climate change3. Putting a price on carbon4. “Believing” in climate change
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greenhouse gases trap heat
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CO2 concentration
temperature
Greenhouse Earth in Action
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How do we know what’s happening?
to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
The 2007 IPCC report • 2,500 + scientific expert reviewers• 800+ contributing authors• 450+ lead authors from • 130+ different countries• 6 years of work • 4 volumes
“by far the largest, broadest, and most international scientific assessment – and consensus - in history. “ Highly Authoritative Commentator, DomPost 2008
The IPCC assesses the science
The 2007 IPCC report • 2,500 + scientific expert reviewers• 800+ contributing authors• 450+ lead authors from • 130+ different countries• 6 years of work • 4 volumes
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………and the IPCC says:
“Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal”
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nature
nature + humans
what happened
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Difference in surface temperature 1951 - 1980 versus 2000 – 2007.
Climate change varies across the planet
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Thames barrierGrizzly-Polar bear
cross
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This is serious!
• With more than 2o warming, there is significant risk of irreversible catastrophe
• Need to limit greenhouse gas concentrations to 450 ppm to limit warming to 2o
• But currently on track to exceed this considerably
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Responding to Climate Change
• Adaptation coping with the impacts of climate
change
• Mitigation reducing the buildup of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere
• Research understanding the problem and solutions
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Adaptation
• Acute
• Chronic
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Mitigation
• International Agreements – targets and binding commitments
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Remove carbon from the atmosphere (sequestration)
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Mitigation is hard
Tragedy of the Commons
Problem is global and intergenerational
Collective action – “I will if you will”
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Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Voluntary change
• Regulation
• Economic instrument
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Why put a price on carbon?• Greenhouse gas emissions are
associated with all goods and services
• Working out the emissions for everything is impossibly complicated
• Carbon price lets the economy do the calculations for us
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The political challenge of pricing carbon emissions
Hard enough raising an existing tax let alone putting a price on something that has been free
Invisible, silent, tasteless, odourless, and intangible
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Two ways of pricing carbon
• Carbon tax – fix P, Q emerges
• Cap and trade – fix Q, P emerges
• Reality - hybridsP
Q
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very different to
• Different challenges• Both bringing in emissions trading
schemes
New Zealand
Australia
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What’s happened in NZ
• Labour Government:- Emissions Trading Scheme in 2008
includes all sectors, all gases
• National Government: – Review of ETS by Select Committee – ETS Amendment Bill
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What’s happened in Australia
• Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
Rejected by the Senate August 2009, probably back to the Senate soon.
Not all sectors, all gases- excludes agriculture and deforestation
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Believing in climate change
• >40% in UK and >50% in USA refuse to accept our emissions are changing the climate
• How do we generate a shared belief in the reality of climate change?
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Questions?