1 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Guangzhou, China, October 2004, PRD Campaign Emissions and transport of...

1Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008

Guangzhou, China, October 2004, PRD Campaign

Emissions and transport of aerosol and ozone in South Asia and China: the GAINS-Asia project

F. Dentener, R. Van Dingenen (JRC) W. Schoepp, A. Chambers ,C. Heyes ,Z. Klimont , M. Amann (IIASA)

R. Mathur (TERI, India)Kejun Jiang (ERI, China)


Objectives:•Develop a tool for policy analysis of cost-benefits ofcontrolling air pollution and GHG emissions•State of the art models•Reduced form representations of models•Updating reference year emission inventories•Scenario’s reflecting realistic energy use perspectives and options for mitigations


TM5 CTMModel set-up• TM5 global 3D CTM with regional two-way nesting• 6°x4; 3°x2°,1°x1°; 25 vertical layers• Aerosol and photo-chemistry• ECMWF meteorology; output every hour• AEROCOM, PHOTOCOMP, HTAP intercomparisons


Experimental set-upImplementation for GAINS-Asia• Policies often implemented at provincial or state level• 32 regions for India; Bangadesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka• 26 provinces in China


Experimental set-up

Perturbation by gridbox

Implementation for GAINS-Asia:• Initial emissions: GAINS/EDGAR3.2; BC/POM: Bond (2004)• Perturbation by -20 % of anthropogenic emissions per region

=> perturbation per unit emission• Input to GAINS cost optimisation• 2 separate cases: NOx-BC-POM; and SO2-CO-VOC• Altogether ca. 120 simulations of 1 year+ spin-up 2 months• Parameterisation to derive urban scale PM concentrations

Uttar Pradesh:Emission perturbation


Change in deposition of SO4


Change in SOMO35 (O3>35 ppbv)

ppb days


Simulated PM10 for 2001



China PM10;including industrial dust

y = 1.0744xr=0.50

020406080

100120140160180200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

measurement

mod

elPM10 in ca. 100 cities in China

Good slope, lot of scatter


Contribution to PM10 from industrial sources

(not POM, BC)Cement

ConstructionRoad dust

LocationStrengthremoval


China PM10;without industrial dust

y = 0.7634xr=0.62

020406080

100120140160180200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

measurement

mod

elPM10 in ca. 100 cities in China

-without industrial dust

Something missing, less scatter


China PM10;+without industrial dust+filter for natural dust

y = 0.7666xr=0.68

020406080

100120140160180200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

measurement

mod

el… Without natural dust …

Better correlation


Comparison of PM2.5 at Beijing (2001)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

no3so

4nh4 bc

pom ss du

unidentifi

ed

model

meas

He et al., Atmos Env. 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

model

meas

Industrial dust:Not likely to be so high!


Increase in PM10 in 2030: Worldwide “Business-as-usual”Realistic scenario developed by ERI/TERI


Scenario: •national energy use projections•Limited air pollution mitigation

Increase in PM10 in 2030:


Loss of statistical life expectancy [months] •World bank method

•Above natural background

2000

Life expectancy will decrease by 6-12 months in 2030


Starting point for identifying mitigation options

Example of implementation in GAINS-AsiaUsing province/state SR relationships

50 ug/m3 (EU limit)

Scenario 2030


Concluding remarks

•Source Receptor relationships for provinces and states in India and China with TM5•First order understanding of levels and composition

of PM2.5 and PM10 (needs improvement)•New measurements coming available will help with

evaluation•Updated GAINS emission (scenarios) for India/China•Scenarios for 2030 combining economic

energy projections with not very ambitious mitigation options leads to serious further decline in air quality

•GAINS tool now operational: will provide policy makerswith information and options to improve air quality:“SEE IS BELIEVE”

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1 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Guangzhou, China, October 2004, PRD Campaign Emissions and transport of...

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