1 Diffusion of Innovations Kathy Gill 21 October 2003
Transcript
Slide 1
1 Diffusion of Innovations Kathy Gill 21 October 2003
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2 Overview Rogers Model Bass Model Stages
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3 Rogers (1995) Identified four main elements of an
innovation-diffusion process Innovation Social system Time
Communications channels
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4 Linear innovation-diffusion theory The process by which an
innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among
the members of a social system. (Rogers, 1995, P.5).
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5 Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as
new by an individual or other unit of adoption
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6 Communication A process in which participants create and
share information with one another in order to reach mutual
understanding (Rogers, 1995).
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7 Time The adoption model follows an s shape curve over
time
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8 Innovation-Decision process The mental process through which
an individual passes from first knowledge to forming an attitude
toward the innovation (adopt, reject)
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9 Five steps Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject)
Implementation Confirmation
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10 Social System A set of interrelated units that are engaged
in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. Members or
units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups,
organizations, and/or subsystems.
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11 Critical mass Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at
the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so
that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes
self-sustaining. The critical mass is a social system perspective,
while the dominant design is a technology perspective. The
irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass
point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at
least in terms of the technological innovation.
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12 Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority
Late majority Laggards
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13 Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that embodies
the technology as a material or physical object. Software - the
knowledge base for the tool
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14 The first Japanese word processor (Toshiba 1978
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15 Japanese Word Processor Shipments
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16 Number of firms selling Japanese word processors
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17 Unit prices of WP and PC (MITI)
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18 Bass model (1969) dx/dt=a*x*(1-x/K)+b*(K-x) x: cumulative
number of adopters at time t, K: population of potential adopters
in the social system, a: internal influence factors, and, b:
external influence factors.
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19 External influences (Bass 1969) Vertical channel(s) of
communication Centralized channel(s) of communication A structured
channel(s) of communication A formal channel(s) of
communication
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20 Internal influences (Bass 1969) Horizontal channels of
communication Decentralized channels of communication Unstructured,
informal channels of communication
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21 Stages of Technological Development Innovation Imitation
Competition Standardization
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22 Innovation Characterized by high uncertainty,
trial-and-error problem solving, make-shift production
Bioengineering Nanotechnology ??
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23 Imitation Characterized by decreasing uncertainty as new
firms enter sector and develop variants on basic innovation
Solor-collector technology ??
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24 Competition R&D leads to process improvements, smaller
firms find it harder to enter industry, competition weeds out those
who do not make improvements Semi-conductors RAM Hard drives?
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25 Standardization Ideal product has been found/created,
R&D focuses on preserving lifecycle; shift to price competition
Pocket calculators ?