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1
Delta Smelt
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
(Tho
usan
ds)
Abu
ndan
ce In
dex
Longfin Smelt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
(Tho
usan
ds)
Abu
ndan
ce In
dex
Striped Bass
0
5
10
15
20
66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
(Tho
usan
ds)
Abu
ndan
ce In
dex
Threadfin Shad
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
(Tho
usan
ds)
Abu
ndan
ce In
dex
Digital Map fromDr. William Bowen California State University Northridge
Sacramento-San Joaquin
DeltaSan Joaquin
River
Sacramento River
Suisun Bay
San Francisco
2
0 10 20 300
20
40
60
80
100Delta smelt
Thr. shadAm. shad
Striped bass
Chinook salmon
Salinity
C
um
ula
tive
Pe
rce
nt
Splittail
Most fishes follow salinities
Kimmerer 2004
Marine species
3
4
Most fish food follows salinities
5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
0
5
10
15
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Day of Water Year
W D
1983 1977 1998 1991 1995 1992 1982 1990 1958 1994 (1997)
Dry Years
Wet Years
Fre
shw
ater
Flo
w (
m3 s
-1)
Variability of Freshwater Delta Inflow
6
X2=
85
X2=
74
7
1967-871988-2000
1982-2000 (DS)All Years
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
2
3
4
5
50 60 70 80 90
0
1
2
3
50 60 70 80 90
-2
-1
0
1
Bay Shrimp
Striped BassSplittail
Longfin smeltDelta smelt
Herring Am. Shad
Flounder
Lo
g A
bu
nd
an
ce
or
Su
rviv
al
X2 (km)High Flow Low Flow
Source:Kimmerer 2002MEPS
Higher trophic levels show many
relationships of abundance to
freshwater flow
8
X2 (km)
0
1
2
0
1
2
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
50 60 70 80 90
2
3
4
5
50 60 70 80 90-2
-1
0
1
2
Mysid
Copepod: Spring
Copepod: Summer
Rotifer: Summer
Chlorophyll: SummerChlorophyll: Spring
Lo
g A
bu
nd
an
ce
X2(km)
High Flow Low Flow
Lower trophic levels show few relationships
of abundance to freshwater flow
Source:Kimmerer 2002 MEPS
1972-19871988-2000
9
X2 (km)
10
X2=74
11
X2=85
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Aver
age
Fall
Outf
low
(cfs
)
W
AN
BN
D
C
13
14
Flows are important but so is geometry
Stationary Habitat ---Geometry
Dynamic Habitat ---Hydrodynamics, ocean conditions, weather
Environment
Biological Conditions
15
Estuarine habitat conceptual model(Peterson 2003)
Stationary Habitat
Dynamic Habitat
Production AreaTidal and River Flow
PelagicRecruitment
16
1873 Delta:
Long residence time
Marsh connections
Two rivers connect to bay
Waterways dendritic
17
Modern delta
Short residence times
Rip-rapped
Cross Delta flows
Rare San Joaquin connection to bay
Waterways web-like18
19Not stable
Old Regime
Variable, High
To the west, Variable
Complex, Variable
Low, Variable
High, Variable
High P, low N
Few, Low
Predation, Fishing
Environmental Drivers
Outflow
Salinity gradient
Landscape
Temperature
Turbidity
Nutrients
Contaminants
“Harvest”
New Regime
Variable, Lower
To the east, Constricted
Simplified, Rigid
High, Uniform
Low, Less variable
Low P, High N (NH4+)
Many, High
Predation and Entrainment
Natives dominatePelagic Fishes, Mysids, Large
Copepods, Diatoms
Invasives dominateEdge & Benthic Fishes, Clams,
Jellyfish, Small Copepods, Microcystis, Aquatic weeds
Higher After Wet Springs
Higher After Wet Springs
After Wet Springs, Broad Fall LSZOverlaps Suisun Region
Higher After Wet Springs
Higher After Wet Springs
More Variable, Higher After Wet Springs
More Variable, Maybe Lower After Wet Springs
Always Low
Always Low
Narrow Fall LSZ In River Channels,Never Overlaps Suisun Region
Always Lower
Always Lower
Always Less Variable, Lower
Less Variable, Maybe Higher
Bathymetric Complexity
Erodible Sediment Supply
Contaminant Sources
Entrainment Sites
Lower
Lower
Many
More
Net Total Delta Fall Outflow
San Joaquin River Contribution to Fall Outflow
Location and Extent of the Fall LSZ (1-6 psu)
Hydrodynamic Complexity in the Fall LSZ
Wind speed in the Fall LSZ
Turbidity in the Fall LSZ
Contaminant Concentrations in the Fall LSZ
Stationary Abiotic Habitat ComponentsSuisun Region River Confluence
Distribution
Growth, Survival, Fecundity
Health and Condition
Recruitment in the next Spring
Constricted, Eastward
Lower
Worse
Lower
Dynamic Abiotic Habitat ComponentsVariable Fall Outflow Regime Static Fall Outflow Regime
Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River ConfluenceFood Availability and Quality
Predator Abundance
Lower
Higher
Delta Smelt ResponsesLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River Confluence
X2=74km
X2=85km
21
Regulatory Approaches
FWS and NMFS(with DFG)
Biological Opinions to protect smelt and salmon:
In place and subject to 11lawsuits from
waterusers
Bay-Delta Conservation Plan:
in development
Regional Boards:New discharge permit for Sac Regional
TMDLs for salt, boron and
Selenium from San Joaquin
22
Regulatory Approaches 2
SWRCB
Issued flows report in 2010
Developing new standards for San Joaquin flows and south delta salinity
In 2012 will address Delta outflow requirements
EPA
ANPR in February 2011
What should be done about:
SeleniumContaminantsEmerging ContaminantsAmmoniumWetlandsEstuarine HabitatMigratory Corridors
How much water do fish need?
23
24
What Changes As Flow Increases?
X2Location of Any Salinity
RangeLSZ
Salinity and X2
FLOW
25
stratification
Flo
odpl
ains
ProportionDiverted
What Changes As Flow Increases?
DeltaResidence Time
RiverStage,
Velocity
River stage and velocity
Floodplain inundation
26
FLOW
FLOW
Upstream bottom current
NutrientsContaminantsOrganic matter
Sediment
What Changes As Flow Increases?
Concentrations
Loadings
27
FLOW
FLOW
What Changes As Flow Increases?
Adult spawners move up:SalmonGreen and White
SturgeonLongfin smeltDelta smeltSplittailAmerican shadPacific herring
Young Marine fish move up:Starry flounderWhite croakerPacific halibut
Young fish move down:SalmonLongfin smeltDelta smeltSplittailAmerican shadStriped bass
28
1.1. Environmental flows are more than just volumes of inflows Environmental flows are more than just volumes of inflows and outflowsand outflows
2.2. Recent flow regimes both harm native species and Recent flow regimes both harm native species and encourage non-native speciesencourage non-native species
3.3. Flow is a major determinant of habitat and transportFlow is a major determinant of habitat and transport
4.4. Recent Delta environmental flows are insufficient to support Recent Delta environmental flows are insufficient to support native Delta fishes for today’s habitatsnative Delta fishes for today’s habitats
5.5. A strong science program and a flexible management A strong science program and a flexible management regime are essential to improving flow criteriaregime are essential to improving flow criteria
Five Key Points
29
+
-
NutrientsOrganic matter
SedimentFish
Flo
odpl
ains
ProportionDiverted
What Changes As Flow Increases?
X2
-Delta
Residence Time
-
RiverStage,
Velocity
+
Location of Any Salinity
Range
-SalinityAt a Point
LSZ
30
Delta smelt habitat abundance in relation to X2
31
FishProduction
BenthicProduction
Zooplankton Production
MicrobialProduction
PhytoplanktonProduction
Nutrient Input
Organic InputInputs
Hydrodynamic Forcing:
Freshwater inflowOceanic variability
Wind
Stratification
Transport/Retention
PhysicalHabitat
Physical forcing
mechanisms
Material flows
Direct physical
influences
Key feedback
loop
Conceptual Model:Physical effects on estuarine ecosystem
32